On Friday of Championship Week — if you’ve ever said the words “Champ Week” aloud, you should be ashamed of yourself — anyone within earshot of the bubble rooted full throat against Indiana, VCU, North Texas and NBK #9 SMU. Joe Lunardi summed up the state of affairs in the wee hours of Saturday morning thusly (my bolding of NBK teams):

Looks like we’ll need another day to unravel and properly sequence the bubble teams. We need to sleep on teams like Wyoming, Michigan, Xavier and hard-luck Oklahoma. Others such as SMU, Dayton and Texas A&M still control their own destinies on Saturday and perhaps even into Sunday. Likely off the board at this point are Wake Forest, VCU, North Texas and Colorado. Our final weekend storyline will be Kentucky, which now has an open path to a No. 1 seed by winning the SEC tournament.

Joe Lunardi, ESPN Bracketologist

Let’s recap the results that matter to the Never Been Kissed (NBK): FRIDAY
Boise St won 68-61 over Wyoming in the Mountain West semifinal, and bumped up to a 6-seed in Joey Brackets’ latest projections. While the Blue Turfers are playing for seed lines and a cool hat on Saturday, the Cowboys will have a fitful wait to see how the rest of the bubble shakes out. Wyoming fans: root hard against Virginia Tech, Dayton, Texas A&M, SMU, and SLU.

In the other MWC semi, Colorado St fell to San Diego St 63-58. The Rams were the better seed but the Aztecs were favored per KenPom. So it’s not an upset and the loss does not hurt CSU – they seem to have nestled comfortably in the 7-seed range.

TCU lost 75-62 to kansas in the Big XII semifinal in Kansas City, MO. Unlike in their recent game in Lawrence, where they made a second half surge to make things interesting for a bit, in this one the Horned Frogs were dominated throughout. It’s a testament to the strength of the Big XII this year that TCU loses three of their last four yet goes comfortably into the NCAAs with momentum and buzz.

North Texas were tripped up by lowly Louisiana Tech 42-36 in a game that even the Pat Riley Knicks found to be an affront to the game of basketball. Over 58 excrutiating possessions, the Mean Green and Bulldogs slung feces at one another before realizing time had mercifully expired and everyone was released to the rest of their day. North Texas coach Grant McCasland is showing up on some early lists of potential replacements for Cuonzo Martin — fired on Friday from Mizzou after five years — and as a long-time Mizzou fan let me be the first to say No Thanks. And as shown above, Lunardi is writing them off too. Devastating loss.

In happier local news, Saint Louis was finally able to get over on St Bonaventure, eeking out a 57-56 win on Friday thanks to SBU’s Kyle Lofton missing two free throws AND a putback in the final two seconds. SLU’s burgeoning 2022 at-large case was demolished in mid-February by consecutive losses to the Bonnies. SBU also knocked SLU out of the A-10 tournament last year, so this victory is particularly satisfying for the Billikens. The win also moves SLU back into Lunardi’s bubble picture — see below — with a date with Davidson next.. Davidson appears to be comfortably IN, and with them having knocked out VCU on Friday a SLU-Dayton final would likely be for only the auto-bid. Despite SLU losing by 21 at Davidson in February, we are only a slight underdog in this one. Let’s Go Bills!

SMU won emphatically 83-58 over Tulsa, and slides slightly over the crest to the better side of the bubble. Today’s semifinal against Memphis seems make-or-break for their at-large hopes. The Mustangs beat the Tigers handily on their home floor a few weeks back, but Memphis is undefeated since and looks to be a legitimate challenger to top AAC dog Houston. This would be a decisive win for SMU.

Rutgers lost to the Iowa light show 84-74. No shame there as Iowa is on fire, and Scarlet Knights coach Steve Pikell signed a lucrative extension. They look to be just above the First Four as an 11-seed.

Big upset in the MAC, as Toledo fell to Akron 70-62 in the semifinal. Look for Toledo back in the NBK this time next year.

UC Santa Barbara ended their one-week stint in the NBK standings by losing to Long Beach St 67-64. UC Irvine and the Gauchos are sure to battle for this space again next year in the Big West.

Finally Montana St kept their dream alive with a win over Weber St 69-66 in the Big Sky semifinal. They will take on Northern Colorado in the final.

SATURDAY
#3 Boise St (45%) vs San Diego St – 5 PM CST
#8 SMU (43%) vs Memphis – 4 PM CST
#9 Saint Louis (46%) vs Davidson – 12 Noon CST
#10 Vermont (91%) vs UMBC – 10 AM CST
#19 Princeton (71%) vs Cornell – 10 AM CST
#23 Montana St (64%) vs Northern Colorado – 7 PM CST

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and ESPN Bracketology and ESPN Bubble Watch and NCAA.com

Thursday recap as we track those teams that have not made the Sweet Sixteen in men’s college basketball since the field was expanded to 64 back in 1985. These schools have Never Been Kissed:

THURSDAY
Toledo trailed by 2 at half to Central Michigan, and by one in the closing seconds. A drive and finish by Rayj Dennis, followed by some great defense by JT Shumate allowed the Rockets to escape with a one point win 72-71 and advance in the MAC.

The suddenly-formidable TCU Horned Frogs stormed back from 18 down to upset Texas in the Big XII, further solidifying their position in the field of 68.

SLU Billikens took care of business with a 20-point blowout of the Explorers in their A-10 opener. Next up: program bogeyman St Bonaventure.

Nevada made it interesting late but Boise St advances 71-69 in their Mountain West opener.

UC Irvine fell to UC Santa Barbara, ending their season suddenly in the Big West quarterfinals. The NBK bids the Anteaters farewell until next year, and welcomes the Gauchos (Santa Barbarians?) to our rankings in their place.

North Texas ripped off a 23-4 run early in the first half to put this one out of reach of minute Rice.

In an NBK vs NBK clash, Colorado St busted Utah St‘s modest bubble, eeking out a 53-51 win in a super-slow Mountain West conference tourney game. CSU remains comfortably in the field and looks to move up a line or two.

Fresno St fell to San Diego St in another MWC tourney slog 53-46. America is not going to be clamoring for MWC at-large bids after these grinders. That said, Joey Brackets still has the Mountain West as a four-bid league — Boise St, San Diego St, Colorado St and Wyoming — which would be their most since they sent five in 2013. A strong showing in the NBK rankings indicates the MWC could continue to poach bids formerly reserved for the likes of the Pac-12, ACC, Atlantic 10 and Missouri Valley.

FRIDAY
#3 Boise St (56%) vs Wyoming – 8:30 PM CST
#4 Colorado St (45%) vs San Diego St – 11 PM CST
#5 TCU (22%) vs Kansas – 6 PM CST
#6 North Texas (66%) vs Louisiana Tech – 11:30 AM CST
#8 Saint Louis (59%) vs St Bonaventure – 1:30 PM CST
#9 SMU (78%) vs Tulsa – 6 PM CST
#14 Rutgers (23%) vs Iowa – 1 PM CST
#17 Toledo (69%) vs Akron – 4 PM CST
#22 UC Santa Barbara (56%) vs Long Beach St – 8 PM CST
#23 Montana St (58%) vs Weber St – 6:30 PM CST

#10 Vermont and #19 Princeton next take the court on Saturday.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and ESPN Bracketology and ESPN Bubble Watch and NCAA.com

Before we look to Thursday action in the NBK – those schools who have Never Been Kissed, never made it to the Sweet Sixteen in the years since the NCAA men’s basketball tournament was expanded to 64 teams in 1985 – let’s review what happened on Wednesday:

Colgate beat Navy 74-58 to win the Patriot and punch their ticket. With some other upsets in conference tourneys Joey Brackets bumped them up to a 14-seed in his latest projections.

Iona lost their semifinal to Rider in their MAAC opener. The Gaels started the year at #162 KenPom and sprinted out to a 19-3 record and #67, including a neutral-site win over #22 Alabama. Four losses since then to inauspicious Niagara, Siena, Manhattan, and now Rider mean the Gaels and Rick Pitino will be lucky to secure an NIT bid.

Utah St handled Air Force 83-56, setting up an NBK clash Thursday against Colorado St. The Aggies lost both games to CSU this year and will have an uphill battle to keep their tournament hopes alive. CSU can afford to lose this one; USU cannot.

Staying in the Mountain West with teams currently on the outside looking into the bubble, Fresno St needed overtime to do it but finally outlasted San Jose St 69-67. They’ll take on San Diego St on Thursday and the USU/CSU winner on Friday, should they advance.

Vermont continued their rumble through the America East tournament aka Vermont Invitational with a shellacking of Binghamton 74-42, and will look to steamroll UMBC on Saturday in the championship game on their home floor.

THURSDAY
#15 Toledo (94%) vs Central Michigan – 10 AM CST
#5 TCU (36%) vs Texas – 11:30 AM CST
#9 Saint Louis (85%) vs LaSalle – 1:30 PM CST
#3 Boise St (76%) vs Nevada – 2 PM CST
#21 UC Irvine (52%) vs UC Santa Barbara – 4:30 PM CST
#6 North Texas (84%) vs Rice – 5:30 PM CST
#7 Utah St (46%) vs #4 Colorado St (54%) – 8 PM CST
#11 Fresno St (37%) vs San Diego St – 10:30 PM CST

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and ESPN Bracketology and ESPN Bubble Watch and NCAA.com

Recounting Tuesday’s movements in the Never Been Kissed – those schools whose men’s basketball programs have never made the Sweet Sixteen in all the years since the field first expanded to 64 in 1985.

Wagner fell to Bryant, who rode the nation’s leading scorer and meathead Peter Kiss and home-court advantage consisting of rowdy douchers to the NEC crown and the auto-bid. This would be a feel-good story for Bryant, new to Division I and winning their first bid, but they seem about has hard to root for as Liberty. So we’ll pass on the feeling good about that, and instead tip an NBK cap to Wagner coach Bashir Mason for wearing the #4 jersey of injured senior guard Elijah Ford for the stretch run.

South Dakota St dispatched North Dakota St in the Summit final without too much difficulty, storming to an early 14-4 advantage. The Bison did eventually cut the lead to one late, but the Jackrabbits and their #1 in the nation Three-Point FG% ($) are going to the Big Dance. Our Man Brackets has the JRs as a 12-seed — prime territory to knock off a wobbly #5 & #4 and graduate from the NBK watchlist.

WEDNESDAY
Colgate vs Navy (Patriot final)
Iona vs Rider
Utah St vs Air Force
Fresno St vs San Jose St
Vermont vs Binghamton

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and ESPN Bracketology and ESPN Bubble Watch and NCAA.com

With a couple of tickets punched over the weekend — congrats to Murray St and new-entry Longwood — let’s see where the NBK stands going into Tuesday night of Championship Week. First let’s revisit Monday action:

In the Game of the Night, the Furman Paladins came back to force overtime against Chattanooga in the SoCon Championship game. Paladin guard Mike Bothwell blew past his defender for a layup to put them up two with under five seconds remaining. The Mocs eschewed the timeout, inbounding right away to David Jean-Baptiste. DJB weaved through traffic to drain a desperation heave from 23 feet just before the horn sounded. Furman’s season is over, and Chattanooga (NBK class of 1997) goes dancing.

San Francisco, way overmatched early and minus their best player Yauhen Massalski, staged a late comeback before falling to #1 Gonzaga in the WCC Semifinals in Las Vegas. In the second semifinal, Santa Clara also fell behind early but inched back close enough to have a tying shot rim off from Jalen Williams. I have to believe Williams’ NBA prospects took a hit with it, as he was held in check by the St. Mary’s defense. Mizzou fans noted Parker Braun started for Santa Clara but was played off the floor after logging only eight minutes. Santa Clara begins an agonizing and likely fruitless week of waiting while St. Mary’s (NBK Class of 2010) takes on Gonzaga tonight.

South Dakota St demolished South Dakota on Monday night and are heavily favored over North Dakota St in the championship game. ESPN Bubble Watch has them at least in the conversation for an at-large bid, but they may not need it this year.

Towson was 4-23 from three point range and fell to Delaware in the CAA semis.

TUESDAY

South Dakota St vs North Dakota St (Summit final)

Wagner vs Bryant (NEC final)

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and ESPN Bracketology and NCAA.com

As we head into the last weekend of the regular season for the big conferences, and the first automatic bids start rolling in for the littles, teams are starting to make some moves in the NBK – those schools who have never made the Sweet Sixteen — Never Been Kissed — in all the years since the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams back in 1985.

TCU is our prime mover, jumping 15 spots in the KenPom after a big win over kansas at home, followed by a close loss at the very same kansas. Toledo has two blowout wins already this week and a head of steam going into the MAC. Conversely, UC Irvine stumbled at Cal Poly and has now lost two of three.

Big Ten movers: goodbye Northwestern, hello Rutgers! The Wildcats stagger toward the finish line and an uncertain future for Chris Collins, while the Scarlet Knights pick up a big roadie at Indiana to halt a three-game losing streak.

Sun Belt movers: goodbye South Alabama, hello Texas St! The Bobcats beat the Jags on Tuesday night and Troy on Friday to clinch the top spot in the Sun Belt.

In other NBK news, Towson has a 50.1% chance of winning the Colonial, and Vermont has an 80.4%(!) shot in the America East. Look for Towson, South Dakota St., and Vermont to jockey for seventh or even sixth in the NBK by this time next week.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and ESPN Bracketology and NCAA.com

Conference tournament action kicks off tonight as #349 Central Connecticut takes on #346 Farleigh Dickinson in the opening round of the NEC tournament. The great thing about college basketball is either of these two teams could win ten straight and take home the national championship. But would that be a dream or an absolute nightmare? Maybe that’s not the great thing about college basketball after all. Setting our sights slightly lower, we take a look at the Never Been Kissed (NBK) standings as one conference tournament opens while most others finish out the regular season.

With SLU on the outside looking NIT, conference tournaments firing up tomorrow, and one more week in the regular season for most, today seems like a great day to fire up the NBK supercomputer and see which men’s college basketball schools are poised to make it to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since the field was expanded to 64 back in 1985. These are the Never Been Kissed.

Last year, you may recall we had three graduates from these ranks. Creighton secured a 5-seed and benefitted from a bit of March Madness to make the second weekend. Oregon St. fought and cursed their way to a Pac-12 auto-bid, then gnawed their way from a 12-seed all the way to the Elite Eight. And Oral Roberts were the fixation of this nation when they beat Ohio St and Florida before Arkansas ended their magical run.

Previous grads include Houston and Virginia Tech in 2019, South Carolina in 2017 — all the way to the Final Four — and Dayton back in 2014. Will any of these break through this year?

This year’s field is noticeable weaker than last year’s, with none in the Top 20 and the lowest well into the 100s. UC Irvine, Princeton, Liberty, and South Alabama are all tops in their conference in KenPom, but are not leading the conference in the standings and therefore not projected into the field of 68 by Joey Brackets.

Also notable out of this group is the giant spread among the 12-seeds present. San Francisco (a strong #25 in KenPom) and North Texas (40) are woefully underseeded, while South Dakota St‘s position (69) should please all parties, and Iona (87) are getting a Rick Pitino boost. Don’t see your forlorn school here? Never fear – Oregon St. and Oral Roberts were not even on our radar at this time last year. So you Rutgers, St. Bonaventure, and Colorado fans don’t give up just yet.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and ESPN Bracketology

SLU travels to upstate New York to once again take on St. Bonaventure in a Matinee Nowhere Near Manhattan on Monday, Valentine’s Day 2022. SLU is still smarting from the SBU-administered beating on Friday night at Chaifetz Arena. The final was 68-61 but it did not seem that close, as the Bonnies dominated the second half at both ends of the floor.

This prediction from Friday aged badly:

Prediction: Yuri Collins controls the game with 11 assists and 1 turnover, and Okoro and Linssen wrestle big double O to a draw down low. SLU wins 78-72.

Instead, Yuri Collins offset 7 assists with 8(!) turnovers, and Osun Osunniyi shrugged off foul trouble to contribute 12 points, 6 rebounds and 6(!) blocks in only 26 minutes. While OO sat, big Bonnie backup Abdoul Karim Coulibaly held the Billikens in check, chipping in 3 steals in a conference-season-high 14 minutes. Kyle Lofton overcame some early shooting woes to garner KenPom game MVP honors with 16 points, 8 assists, and 4 steals playing all 40 minutes.

At times, Collins looked like the only offense the Billikens had, as they were mystified by the SBU zone looks. Jordan Nesbitt tossed up a doughnut — his first scoreless outing of the season — and Gibson Jimerson hit two threes early and the broad sides of barns thereafter. Fred Thatch Jr. had one of his worst games as well, and may have cost himself a starting spot on Monday.

The Bonnies that showed up at Chaifetz on Friday night looked like the SBU clubs from the past couple of years: patient, experienced, long, and defiantly not deep. If Friday marked a beginning of a return to form for SBU, they will torpedo SLUs at-large tournament ambitions in the process and likely render the A-10 a one-bid league. KenPom has SBU by a single point 71-70. Hold your loved ones close and enjoy the show.

References

Data from Basketball Reference and Ken Pomeroy and SLUBillikens.com and the NCAA

Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here

Plot format by Aaron Baggett

Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy

Inspiration from Rock M Nation

Team colors courtesy:

Benjamin S. Baumer and Gregory J. Matthews (2020). teamcolors: Color Palettes for Pro Sports Teams. R package version 0.0.4.

https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=teamcolors

Surprising SLU takes on disappointing St. Bonaventure tonight at 8 PM Central at Chaifetz Arena, in the first game of a COVID-induced weekend home-and-home.

The last time these two teams met was in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament last March. SLU came in #39 KenPom, squarely off the bubble but with a punchers chance of scoring the automatic bid. SBU was #30 KenPom and seemed safely IN the field.

Three minutes in, it was 11-2 Bonnies. After taking an 8-point lead into the half, SBU went on a 12-2 run early in the second and the rout was on. SLU never threatened and were trounced 71-53. SLU accepted an NIT bid and took a first-round loss. SBU then beat VCU for the A-10 auto-bid and snagged a 9-seed, then lost big to LSU in round one of the Big Dance.

The blue dots on the chart below show just how feeble SLU was vs SBU last time — Gibson Jimerson came off the bench to hit three threes, Jordan Goodwin was so-so, but everyone else was thoroughly routed.

SBU was a Junior-laden team last year, and everyone is back for more. They are near top of the nation in Minutes Continuity and Experience, and are dead-last in Bench Minutes. No need to look beyond Osunniyi, Adaway, Lofton, Holmes and Welch for a difference-maker in this one. So what’s gone wrong with SBU? Their offense looks pretty similar to last year — very slow pace, grind out each possession — though they are not hitting the offensive boards as successfully. But the defense has really suffered — the #20 KenPom defense last year has now dropped to #157, giving up a full 10 points more per 100 possessions. Opponents Effective FG % are up to 50% this year from 45.5% last year. They aren’t forcing many turnovers, so if they are not blocking your shot, you are probably getting a good shot.

Prediction: Yuri Collins controls the game with 11 assists and 1 turnover, and Okoro and Linssen wrestle big double O to a draw down low. SLU wins 78-72.

References

Data from Basketball Reference and Ken Pomeroy and SLUBillikens.com and the NCAA

Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here

Plot format by Aaron Baggett

Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy

Inspiration from Rock M Nation

Team colors courtesy:

Benjamin S. Baumer and Gregory J. Matthews (2020). teamcolors: Color Palettes for Pro Sports Teams. R package version 0.0.4.

https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=teamcolors