Let’s catch up on the hoops exploits of the Never Been Kissed – those schools who have never made the Sweet Sixteen of the NCAA Men’s Basketball tournament since it first expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

TUESDAY RECAP

• (3) Hofstra did not sh*t the bed in their battle with (4) Monmouth, 75-69 in the Coastal final, punching their ticket behind freshman Preston Edmead and his 26 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals & 40 minutes
• (3) Santa Clara hung in for a half vs (1) Gonzaga but ultimately lost 79-68 in the West Coast final. Their place in the bracket seems secure.
• (1) Stephen F. Austin came out cold but heated up in the second half to win 60-58 over (4) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in one Southland semifinal
• (2) McNeese had to go three(!) overtimes to get by (3) UT Rio Grande Valley in the other Southland semifinal. The Cowboys tied it with six seconds left in regulation to force the overtime, fell behind in both of the first two extra sessions and finally came out on top.
• (11) SMU led by one at half, then used a 13-0 run midway through the second half to dispatch (14) Syracuse in the ACC first round

WEDNESDAY RECAP

• (2) McNeese led wire-to-wire and secured the Southland title and autobid with a decisive 76-59 win over (1) Stephen F. Austin in the final
• (2) Sam Houston St over (10) New Mexico St 69-61 in the CUSA quarterfinal, while (1) Liberty was knocked off clearing a path
• (6) TCU shot the lights out down the stretch to separate from (11) Oklahoma St and win 95-88 in the Big XII second round
• (8) UCF went to overtime and prevailed 66-65 over (9) Cincinnati in the Big XII second round
• (11) SMU lost to (6) Louisville 62-58 in ACC second round action, with Boopie Miller going 0-8 from three. This will be a long week and a long wait for the Mustangs until Selection Sunday.
• (6) Boise St fell 84-74 to (11) San Jose St in Mountain West first round, despite the Broncos Javan Buchanan’s 28 points & 13 rebounds. Their slim hopes evaporated with the early conference exit.
• (7) Colorado St beat (10) Fresno St 67-63 in the Mountain West first round

THURSDAY RECAP

• (6) TCU traded runs with (3) Kansas in the Big XII quarterfinal and were tied at 61 with six minutes left, but faded down the stretch and lost 78-73. Kansas was a whopping 30-37 from the foul line in Kansas City, and Darryn Peterson led the way with 24 points and 8 rebounds for the Jayhawks. This loss will not hurt the Horned Frogs standing and they should be safely in the field having won 9 of their last 11.
• (2) Akron survived a cold spell and a furious (7) Buffalo rally to squeak by 73-70 in the MAC quarterfinal. The big news of the tournament was 31-0 (1) Miami OH losing to (8) UMass, sparking sports talk debates around the country whether the Redhawks are more deserving than a middling SEC team like Auburn. Our take is that the Redhawks schedule is absolutely hideous but the tournament is more fun with them in. Sorry Auburn, we’d take the ‘hawks.
• (1) Utah St smoked (8) UNLV 80-60 in the Mountain West quarterfinal in Las Vegas
• (3) New Mexico held serve 93-77 over (11) San Jose St in their Mountain West quarterfinal
• (4) Grand Canyon fell to (5) Nevada 84-80 in their Mountain West quarterfinal and the Antelopes under Bryce Drew are sure to see their three year streak of making the Big Dance come to an end
• (7) Colorado St lost to (2) San Diego St 72-61 in the Mountain West quarterfinal, with a 17-3 Aztec run spanning halftime the decisive span. The Rams have made 3 of the past 4 NCAA tournaments but will not be in this one.
• (8) UCF ran into the buzzsaw that is (1) Arizona in Big XII quarterfinal, falling behind 35-8 and barely treading water thereafter to bow out 81-59. Joey Brackets believes the Knights have done enough to secure their first bid since 2019.

FRIDAY RECAP

• (1) Saint Louis turned the clock back to late January, falling way behind (9) George Washington in their Atlantic 10 quarterfinal — same as in their 1/27 game at Chaifetz Arena — only to storm back in the second half and win semi-comfortably 88-80
• (1) Utah Valley survived a late charge by (4) UT Arlington to win 67-65 in the WAC semifinal
• (1) UC Irvine opened 15-2 and easily handled (4) Cal State Northridge (CSUN) 93-78 in the Big West semifinal
• (3) New Mexico lost a nail-biter to (2) San Diego St 64-62 in the Mountain West semifinal, and the Lobos land squarely on the bubble for Sunday, seemingly the wrong side of it
• (2) Nebraska was hammered by (7) Purdue 74-58 in the Big Ten quarterfinal, with Herbie allowing the Boilers to rebound 40% of their own misses. The Huskers will go into the NCAA tournament as one of the strongest NBK entrants in history, but this result portends trouble for the second round.
• (2) Sam Houston St was upset 79-73 by (6) Kennesaw St in the CUSA semifinal. Po’Boigh King was a DNP and the Bearkats were short-handed for this one, and are NIT-bound at best.

COMING UP….

SATURDAY

The day before Selection Sunday is special, with a lot of action across the country and every game is either a semifinal or a final. Fitting that our list of teams of interest is now down to 16.

• (2) Akron (74% chance of winning per KenPom) vs (4) Toledo in the MAC FINAL
• (1) Utah St (59%) vs (2) San Diego St in the Mountain West FINAL
• (1) Utah Valley (58%) vs (2) Cal Baptist in the WAC FINAL
• (1) UC Irvine (53%) vs (2) Hawaii in the Big West FINAL
• (1) South Florida (84%) vs (5) Charlotte in the American semifinal
• (1) Saint Louis (69%) vs (4) Dayton in the A-10 semifinal
• (1) Yale (66%) @ (4) Cornell in the Ivy semifinal

Data courtesy Kenpom.com , ESPN Bracketology, ESPN Bubble Watch and Ken Pomeroy’s Substack

We didn’t lose anyone last night, and we are up to 2 Locks and 4 Should be ins. KenPom finished doing all his Conference Tourney Odds on his Substack.

MONDAY RECAP

• (3 seed) Santa Clara beat (2) Saint Mary’s in the WCC semifinal. This is by far the best Broncos team in the KenPom Era (some people are now calling this the Play-by-Play Data Era but that’s not as fun) and we’ll see if they can beat might Gonzaga once before the Zags join up with much of the current Mountain West to form the new Pac 12 in 2027.
• (3) Hofstra outlasted (7) Towson 68-65 in OT in the Coastal semifinal, struggling through a terrible shooting night through regulation before getting hot in the extra period. Towson’s Tyler Tejada played all 45 minutes and went for 29 points and 7 rebounds, earning KenPom game MVP honors in the losing effort.

COMING UP….

TUESDAY

• (3) Hofstra (73% chance of winning per KenPom) vs (4) Monmouth in the Coastal FINAL
• (3) Santa Clara (30%) vs (1) Gonzaga in the West Coast FINAL
• (1) Stephen F. Austin (72%) vs (4) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in one Southland semifinal
• (2) McNeese (76%) vs (3) UT Rio Grande Valley in the other Southland semifinal
• (11) SMU (68%) vs (14) Syracuse – ACC first round

Data courtesy Kenpom.com , ESPN Bracketology, ESPN Bubble Watch and Ken Pomeroy’s Substack

Kenpom published quite a few of his Conference Tourney Odds on his substack. In total, 26 of 31 are out there. I’ve included those Conf Prob % numbers in the data below. But first some light exposition. NBK-eligible teams are in Bold.

SUNDAY RECAP

(1 seed) High Point smoked (2) Winthrop in the Big South final 91-76. Cam’Ron Fletcher came off the bench to bag 15 points and 17 boards and lead the Panthers back to the Big Dance for the second straight year. Fletcher has be the only player in the country this year with 6 KenPom Game MVPs as a reserve, but I have no way of proving that.

(5) Illinois Chicago fell 84-69 to (6) Northern Iowa in the MVC Arch Madness final, despite getting 28 points from Elijah Crawford.

(1) UNC Wilmington were dumped by (9) Campbell 85-70 in the Coastal quarterfinals as they went 2-18 from three.

(3) Hofstra pounded both (6) William & Mary in the Coastal quarterfinal 92-61 behind Cruz Davis and his 30 points. With (1) UNC Wilmington and (2) Charleston eliminated in the quarters, Hofstra are suddenly the favorite.

(3) Santa Clara toyed with (6) Pacific in the West Coast quarterfinal, surviving and advancing to the tune of 76-68. They’ll take on long-time nemesis (2) Saint Mary’s in the semifinal.

South Florida smoked Charlotte 83-60 to close out the American regular season and win the conference by two games.

Nebraska beat Iowa 84-75 in OT to snag the 2-seed in the Big Ten tourney. The Huskers blew a ten point lead with five minutes left but recovered in the extra period to send the Senior Day crowd home happy.

COMING UP….

MONDAY

• (3) Santa Clara (40% chance of winning per KenPom) vs (2) Saint Mary’s in the WCC semifinal
• (3) Hofstra (69%) vs (7) Towson in the Coastal semifinal

Data courtesy Kenpom.com , ESPN Bracketology, ESPN Bubble Watch and Ken Pomeroy’s Substack

Did you ever Fall Back when you were supposed to Spring Forward? Yeah, me neither 🙂

SATURDAY RESULTS

St Thomas were stunned by North Dakota 67-66 in the Summit League semifinal.

SLU completely fell apart, losing by 29 (!) at George Mason. The Billikens’ minor struggles down the stretch have now metastasized into major problems portending total collapse. Robbie Avila had 2 points and 1 rebound and sat most of the second half (foul trouble, garbage time) in the worst game of his college career.

Big stumble for Hawaii as they lost a head-scratcher at home to Long Beach St and first year Gavin Sykes’ 34 points. Coming off a 39 point effort, Sykes is one to watch in the Big West Tournament.

SMU also failed to improve their resume, falling 91-78 at Florida St. The Mustangs’ Boopie Miller went for a career high 32 points but FSU shot 16-34 from long range to prevail. SMU go into the ACC Tournament on a four-game losing skid.

Utah St beat New Mexico 94-90. Utah Valley won a 20T thriller over Utah Tech 104-101. That wraps up our Utah update section.

Boise St with a nice 78-67 road win over Colorado St as both head to their Mountain West tournament openers on Wednesday.

TCU took care of business at home, beating Cincinnati 73-63. That makes 11 conference wins for the Horned Frogs, their most since joining the league in 2013.

Yale pulled away in the second half to beat Princeton handily 78-53. Nick Townshend led the way for the Ivy League champs with 17 points and 7 rebounds and leads the the Ivy KenPom Player of the Year (KPOY) standings going into the Ivy Tournament.

High Point rode a double-double from Senior Terry Anderson to a relatively comfortable 75-71 win over UNC Ashville in the Big South semifinal. They will take on Winthrop in the final on Sunday.

Liberty held off Sam Houston St 79-72 behind CUSA KPOY leader’s near-triple-double: 19 points, 9 rebounds, 9 assists.

SUNDAY SLATE

• High Point (66% chance of winning per KenPom) vs Winthrop in the Big South FINAL – they split the regular season matchups
• Illinois Chicago (40%) vs Northern Iowa in the Arch Madness FINAL – first-ever MVC final for the Flames
• Santa Clara (80%) vs Pacific in the West Coast quarterfinal
• Hofstra (64%) vs William & Mary in the Colonial quarterfinal
• South Florida (90%) host Charlotte to close out the American regular season
• Nebraska (71%) host Iowa to close out the Big Ten regular season

Data courtesy Kenpom.com , ESPN Bracketology, ESPN Bubble Watch and Ken Pomeroy’s Substack

As noted Friday night, (1) Belmont was a victim of Arch Madness, upended by (9) Drake in the quarterfinal. Later (3) Illinois St fell to (6) Northern Iowa. And with that our top two MVC hopefuls — (2) Bradley survived in OT but they made the Sweet Sixteen back in 1986 — are out.

UCF was trounced by West Virginia 77-62 and slump into the Big XII tournament losers of three straight, with the shine of conference wins over Kansas, Texas Tech & BYU starting to fade a bit.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and ESPN Bracketology and ESPN Bubble Watch and Ken’s Substack

FRIDAY – Roughly half the conference tournaments are underway, and the other half of the country finishes out the regular season this weekend, and we check back in with the schools looking to make the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament first expanded to 64. Here are the biggest games of the weekend for this pack of puckered peppers:

Utah St hosts New Mexico on Saturday in a game the Aggies can probably afford to lose and the Lobos probably cannot. Everyone in the Mountain West Conference office will be pulling for New Mexico. As it stands now, Joey Brackets has them both IN.

Staying in the Mountain West — official conference sponsor of the NBK — Boise St visits Colorado St as they sit tied for fifth with identical 11-5 conference records. Both are off the bubble at the moment so need all the positioning they can get heading into the MWC Tourney. CSU has won seven straight; Boise St four in a row.

As I sit here and type, #1 Belmont falls in the Arch Madness quarterfinal, upset 100-81 by #9 Drake. The Bruins look unlikely to grab an at-large bid, and March Madness will be denied the nation’s #1 Effective Field Goal % Offense per KenPom. We’ll switch horses and pull for Illinois St to grab the MVC auto-bid.

Red hot TCU hosts white-hot Cincinnati to close out the Big XII schedule. SMU needs to hold serve at home vs Florida St to avoid finishing with a losing record in the ACC.

The top two in Conference USA square off when Liberty – who has already clinched the regular season title – hosts Sam Houston St.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and ESPN Bracketology and ESPN Bubble Watch

The major conferences are in the last week of their regular seasons, while most of the other leagues have already wrapped their regular seasons and are prepping for the conference tournament. As KenPom sends out his Log5 predictions for conference tournament victory odds this week, we’ll update our NBK – Never Been Kissed – standings as often as time allows.

Meanwhile, the biggest movers in the past couple of weeks have been:

Hofstra – Speedy Claxton’s Pride have won 7 of 8 to move into third-place in the CAA with the highest KenPom rating in the league. The CAA tournament should be a good three-way battle among Hofstra, UNC Wilmington, and Charleston.

St Thomas – the Tommies (not kidding) closed hard to grab the #2 seed in the Summit League tournament. They split with conference champ North Dakota State, losing a close one on the road and winning decisively at home more recently.

What in the Sam Houston St is happening in Conference USA? The Bearkats – led by Po’Boigh King – go into the final week of the regular season winning 12 of 13 and a date looms with conference leader Liberty to close it out.

On the downside, Illinois St lost to fellow MVC contenders Illinois Chicago and Bradley down the stretch, and have not won three straight since New Year’s Day. They are in a jumbled group that head to Arch Madness in the second tier below leaders Belmont.

McNeese keeps winning — they finished 19-3 in the Southland — but a few squeakers down the stretch saw them dip in the KenPom ratings even without a loss. The Southland tournament seems almost certain to be a showdown between the Cowboys and Stephen F. Austin.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and ESPN Bracketology and ESPN Bubble Watch

With SLU 24-1 and inching closer to Lock status — the latest ESPN Bubble Watch says they are already there, but we are more cautious at NBK HQ — let’s take our First Look this year at the programs who have not made the second weekend of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament since it first expanded to 64 schools in 1985; in all these Sweet Sixteens they’ve Never Been Kissed.

Nebraska, Saint Louis & Utah State are all in power positions with decent amounts of cushion. Locks? We’ll see. SMU returns to the ranks of the NBK after a couple of years away. Santa Clara got waxed by Gonzaga last night but remain in contention for an at-large bid.

As usual the Mountain West conference is the NBKest, with five schools making our rankings. New Mexico & TCU embody the spirit of the NBK with their “First Four Out” and “Work to do” statuses. And farther down the list, Liberty lead the CUSA and retain the faintest “Long shot” hope of not even needing the conference auto-bid to get in.

ESPN Bubble Watch is the next layer deeper than ESPN Bracketology., where teams beyond Joey Brackets purview are still jockeying all the way through to Selection Sunday. We’ll see how many of the Long shots can withstand losing their conference tournament and still get an at-large.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com

With longtime captain Kevin De Bruyne on the back nine of his career, mildly exiled from world beaters Manchester City to Serie A champions Napoli, the All Ginger XI seeks a new arm to place the captain’s band for the first time in nearly a decade. We are running a 4-3-3 and need strong leadership from the backline, and with only one member of the starting unit serving as captain for both club and country, the choice is obvious: Glódís Perla Viggósdóttir is the newest captain of the All Ginger XI. Lead us!

GK – Jordan Pickford – England (#1) & Everton (#1)
D – Glódís Perla Viggósdóttir (c) – Iceland (#4) & Bayern Munich (#4)
D – Molly Bartrip – Tottenham (#5)
D – Stine Ballisager Pedersen – Denmark (#3) & Bayern Munich (#3)
D – Tim Ream – USA (#13) & Charlotte (#3)
MF – Kim Little – Arsenal (#10)
MF – Hal Hershfelt – Washington Spirit (#17)
MF – James McClean – Wrexham (#7)
F – Sjoeke Nüsken – Germany (#15) & Chelsea (#6)
F – Frenkie De Jong – Netherlands (#21) & Barcelona (#21)
F – Josh Sargent – USA (#24) & Norwich City (#9)

Manager – Ronald Koeman – Netherlands men
Announcer – Mike Watts
Podcaster – Sam Mewis

Before the first round we did a WAB-style Draft Preview, and here’s the order our picks were selected:

1. Cooper Flagg – Duke – Selected #1 by Dallas
2. Dylan Harper – Rutgers – Selected #2 by San Antonio
3. Collin Murray-Boyles – South Carolina – Selected #9 by Toronto
4. Jeremiah Frears – Oklahoma – Selected #7 by New Orleans
5. Tre Johnson – Texas – Selected #6 by Washington
6. Derik Queen – Maryland – Selected #13 by New Orleans, who traded up to get him
7. Ace Bailey – Rutgers – Selected #5 by Utah

We’ll see how these picks pan out.

For Round Two, we are not attempting to do a projection. Instead, as the picks are announced we will generate and publish our favored dot-and-line plots with Game Scores per 40. D1 college players only. See the full list below.

31 – Rasheer Fleming – Saint Joseph’s – selected by Minnesota

32 – Noah Penda – France – selected by Orlando

33 – Sion James – Duke – selected by Charlotte

34 – Ryan Kalkbrenner – Creighton – selected by Charlotte

35 – Johni Broome – Auburn – selected by Philadelphia

36 – Adou Thieru – Arkansas – selected by Brooklyn

37 – Chaz Lanier – Tennessee – selected by Detroit

38 – Kameron Jones – Marquette – selected by San Antonio

39 – Alijah Martin – Florida – selected by Toronto

40 – Micah Peavy – Georgetown – selected by Washington

41 – Koby Brea – Kentucky – selected by Golden State

42 – Maxime Raynaud – Stanford – selected by Sacramento

43 – Jamir Watkins – Florida State – selected by Utah

44 – Brooks Barnhizer – Northwestern – selected by Oklahoma City

45 – Rocco Zikarsky – Australia – selected by Chicago

46 – Amari Williams – Kentucky – selected by Orlando

47 – Bogoljub Marković – Serbia – selected by Milwaukee

48 – Javon Small – West Virginia – selected by Memphis

49 – Tyrese Proctor – Duke – selected by Cleveland

50 – Kobe Sanders – Nevada – selected by New York

51 – Mohamed Diawara – France – selected by LA Clippers
52 – Alex Toohey – Australia – selected by Phoenix

53 – John Tonje – Wisconsin – selected by Utah

54 – Taelon Peter – Liberty – selected by Indiana

55 – Lachlan Olbrich – Australia – selected by LA Lakers

56 – Will Richard – Florida – selected by Memphis

57 – Max Shulga – VCU – selected by Orlando

58 – Saliou Niang – Italy – selected by Cleveland

59 – Jahmai Mashack – Tennessee – selected by Houston

Data courtesy Basketball Reference
Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here
Plot format by Aaron Baggett
Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy
Inspiration from Rock M Nation

Team colors courtesy:
Benjamin S. Baumer and Gregory J. Matthews (2020). teamcolors: Color Palettes for Pro Sports Teams. R package version 0.0.4