In this space we track the fate of the Never Been Kissed, those schools that have not made the Sweet Sixteen of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament in all the years since the field was first expanded to 64 teams back in 1985. Saturday night, the Saint Peter’s Peacocks advanced to their first Sweet Sixteen in school history, upsetting fellow NBK hopeful Murray St 70-60. This game was tight throughout the first half, the Peacocks took control right out of the break, staking a ten-point lead three minutes into the second half and playing the Racers to a draw until the final buzzer.

KC Ndefo was sensational in this one, with 17 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists and 6 big blocks. In our preview, we pointed out problems the Peacock front court has had this season controlling their turnovers in the front court — Ndefo had just three himself and as a team Saint Peter’s committed only ten. That translates to 15.6% of their possessions, down from their average of 20.6%. And again Doug Edert aka The Mustachioed Microwave came up huge in key moments down the stretch, scoring ten straight — 3 FTs, two jumpers assisted by Ndefo, and a huge 3-pointer assited by Fousseyni Drame. By the time he was done, there were just 3:00 left and Saint Peter’s had an 88.3% chance of making the Sweet Sixteen.

SUNDAY
NBK current #2 TCU (28%) vs Arizona in the nightcap — 8:40 PM CDT on CBS. The Horned Frogs last good run through the NCAA tournament was in 1967-68, when they made it to the Regional Final under Johnny Swaim, falling to a powerhouse Houston team featuring Elvin Hayes and Don Chaney.

Arizona
The Arizona Wildcats of 2021-22 are not the Houston Cougars of 1967-68, but entered the tournament as the overall #2 behind #1 Gonzaga, and rolled through their first round matchup with 16-seed Wright St. Tommy Lloyd, as longtime assistant at Gonzaga under Mark Few, took over this year from noted shoe enthusiast Sean Miller. And the results have been instantaneous and startling. The rebuilt Wildcats are one of only four schools with Top 20 KenPom ratings in both Adjusted Offense and Adjusted Defense (Gonzaga, Houston, Baylor – RIP). Arizona is young (near the bottom in Experience), huge (#2 in Average Height), and they share the ball effectively (also #2 in Assists Per Field Goals Made). They are also strong Offensive Rebounders (#15), however TCU is #1 in the same category. Strength on strength.

With all due respect to Oumar Ballo and Kim Aiken Jr — highly productive in limited roles — this edition is led by 6’10” Azoulas Tubelis and 7’0″ Christian Koloko down low, and the immaculate 6’6″ Bennedict Mathurin on the wing. Koloko dominated the overwhelmed Raiders — 17 points, 13 rebounds, 6 assists, 5 blocks — such that a decent performance Tubelis — 13 points, 5 rebounds but 3 turnovers — and a relative stinker from Mathurin — 4 turnovers — were moot. Pelle Larsson, Justin Kier, and Dalen Terry had above-average games vers Wright St, while normal starting PG Kerr Kriisa remained out since the Pac-12 Tournament.

Seeing how the current Big Three ranks with NBA talent like Lauri Markkanen and Aaron Gordon, and the “role players” are all better than the average historical Wildcat, the Horned Frogs task looks daunting.

TCU
TCU is very good at what is quickly becoming a dying art form: Offensive Rebounding. The Horned Frogs are #1 in the country in OR%, retrieving a healthy 37.8% of their own misses. However, that percent represents a significant step down from past seasons and projects to be the lowest in the KenPom era. TCU has a good defense, solid in all areas, and they have weathered a tough schedule (#9 overall), particularly in Feb/March.

Their top five — Emanuel Miller, Eddie Lampkin Jr, Chuck O’Bannon Jr, Mike Miles, and Damion Baugh — form a tight fist of productivity best described as “not quite to the level of Desomnd Bane, but still pretty good”. Xavier Cork, Francisco Farabello, and Micah Peavy are solid contributors off the bench.

TCU’s path to victory, their road to the Sweet Sixteen, their route to NBK Graduation, appears to be paved with slowing things down and getting every single rebound. They’ll again need to be clicking on at least 4 of 5 cylinders to beat mighty Arizona.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and Basketball Reference and RealGM.com
Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here
Plot format by Aaron Baggett
Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy
Inspiration from Rock M Nation

Team colors courtesy:
Benjamin S. Baumer and Gregory J. Matthews (2020). teamcolors: Color Palettes for Pro Sports Teams. R package version 0.0.4.