Recounting Tuesday’s movements in the Never Been Kissed – those schools whose men’s basketball programs have never made the Sweet Sixteen in all the years since the field first expanded to 64 in 1985.
Wagner fell to Bryant, who rode the nation’s leading scorer and meathead Peter Kiss and home-court advantage consisting of rowdy douchers to the NEC crown and the auto-bid. This would be a feel-good story for Bryant, new to Division I and winning their first bid, but they seem about has hard to root for as Liberty. So we’ll pass on the feeling good about that, and instead tip an NBK cap to Wagner coach Bashir Mason for wearing the #4 jersey of injured senior guard Elijah Ford for the stretch run.
South Dakota St dispatched North Dakota St in the Summit final without too much difficulty, storming to an early 14-4 advantage. The Bison did eventually cut the lead to one late, but the Jackrabbits and their #1 in the nation Three-Point FG% ($) are going to the Big Dance. Our Man Brackets has the JRs as a 12-seed — prime territory to knock off a wobbly #5 & #4 and graduate from the NBK watchlist.
WEDNESDAY Colgate vs Navy (Patriot final) Iona vs Rider Utah St vs Air Force Fresno St vs San Jose St Vermont vs Binghamton
NBK standings through 3/8/2022. KenPom rankings through 3/8/2022. KenPom Conf Tourney odds via Ken’s Twitter, until the conference championship game, where they are the KenPom odds ($) of winning just that showdown – e.g. Colgate. ESPN Bracketology as of 3/9/2022 at 12:00 A.M. ET.
With a couple of tickets punched over the weekend — congrats to Murray St and new-entry Longwood — let’s see where the NBK stands going into Tuesday night of Championship Week. First let’s revisit Monday action:
In the Game of the Night, the Furman Paladins came back to force overtime against Chattanooga in the SoCon Championship game. Paladin guard Mike Bothwell blew past his defender for a layup to put them up two with under five seconds remaining. The Mocs eschewed the timeout, inbounding right away to David Jean-Baptiste. DJB weaved through traffic to drain a desperation heave from 23 feet just before the horn sounded. Furman’s season is over, and Chattanooga (NBK class of 1997) goes dancing.
San Francisco, way overmatched early and minus their best player Yauhen Massalski, staged a late comeback before falling to #1 Gonzaga in the WCC Semifinals in Las Vegas. In the second semifinal, Santa Clara also fell behind early but inched back close enough to have a tying shot rim off from Jalen Williams. I have to believe Williams’ NBA prospects took a hit with it, as he was held in check by the St. Mary’s defense. Mizzou fans noted Parker Braun started for Santa Clara but was played off the floor after logging only eight minutes. Santa Clara begins an agonizing and likely fruitless week of waiting while St. Mary’s (NBK Class of 2010) takes on Gonzaga tonight.
South Dakota St demolished South Dakota on Monday night and are heavily favored over North Dakota St in the championship game. ESPN Bubble Watch has them at least in the conversation for an at-large bid, but they may not need it this year.
Towson was 4-23 from three point range and fell to Delaware in the CAA semis.
TUESDAY
South Dakota St vs North Dakota St (Summit final)
Wagner vs Bryant (NEC final)
NBK standings through 3/8/2022. ESPN Bracketology as of 3/8/2022 at 7:00 A.M. ET
As we head into the last weekend of the regular season for the big conferences, and the first automatic bids start rolling in for the littles, teams are starting to make some moves in the NBK – those schools who have never made the Sweet Sixteen — Never Been Kissed — in all the years since the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams back in 1985.
TCU is our prime mover, jumping 15 spots in the KenPom after a big win over kansas at home, followed by a close loss at the very same kansas. Toledo has two blowout wins already this week and a head of steam going into the MAC. Conversely, UC Irvine stumbled at Cal Poly and has now lost two of three.
Big Ten movers: goodbye Northwestern, hello Rutgers! The Wildcats stagger toward the finish line and an uncertain future for Chris Collins, while the Scarlet Knights pick up a big roadie at Indiana to halt a three-game losing streak.
Sun Belt movers: goodbye South Alabama, hello Texas St! The Bobcats beat the Jags on Tuesday night and Troy on Friday to clinch the top spot in the Sun Belt.
In other NBK news, Towson has a 50.1% chance of winning the Colonial, and Vermont has an 80.4%(!) shot in the America East. Look for Towson, South Dakota St., and Vermont to jockey for seventh or even sixth in the NBK by this time next week.
NBK rankings on Friday night 3/4/2022. KenPom Conf Tourney Odds via Twitter. ESPN Bracketology as of 3/4/2022 at 7:00 A.M. ET.
Conference tournament action kicks off tonight as #349 Central Connecticut takes on #346 Farleigh Dickinson in the opening round of the NEC tournament. The great thing about college basketball is either of these two teams could win ten straight and take home the national championship. But would that be a dream or an absolute nightmare? Maybe that’s not the great thing about college basketball after all. Setting our sights slightly lower, we take a look at the Never Been Kissed (NBK) standings as one conference tournament opens while most others finish out the regular season.
NBK standings as of 2/28/2022. KenPom rankings and records through games of Sunday, 2/27/2022. ESPN Bracketology as of 2/25/2022 AT 7:00 A.M. ET. KenPom Conf Tourney Odds posted on Twitter.
Murray St. goes into its conference tournament season with the strongest position among our clubs. The Racers are heavy favorites (65.1% per KenPom’s log5 simulation) to take the Ohio Valley crown, and have some buffer if they do not with a gaudy 28-2 record, #26 KenPom and #24 NET ranking. South Dakota St. is similarly-favored (63.5%) in the Summit, but are just now making their debut on Bubble Watch ($). Doubtful they could muster enough buzz to make a conference tournament final loss anything but fatal to their hopes this year.
In other NBK news, TCU has a very strange COVID-induced home-and-home with kansas this week, then go to West Virginia on Saturday to round out the Big XII regular season. They are expected to lose all three, which would drop the Horned Frogs to 7-11 in the Big XII and certainly push them off Joey Brackets’ list. The Mountain West is a veritable hive of NBK activity, as Boise St., Colorado St., Utah St., and the State of Fresno all look to get off the schneid and make NBK history. Princeton won a big one at Harvard over the weekend, and have their strongest team since the 2016-17 edition that gave Bonzie Colson and Notre Dame everything it could handle in round one before falling 60-58.
With SLU on the outside looking NIT, conference tournaments firing up tomorrow, and one more week in the regular season for most, today seems like a great day to fire up the NBK supercomputer and see which men’s college basketball schools are poised to make it to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since the field was expanded to 64 back in 1985. These are the Never Been Kissed.
Last year, you may recall we had three graduates from these ranks. Creighton secured a 5-seed and benefitted from a bit of March Madness to make the second weekend. Oregon St. fought and cursed their way to a Pac-12 auto-bid, then gnawed their way from a 12-seed all the way to the Elite Eight. And Oral Roberts were the fixation of this nation when they beat Ohio St and Florida before Arkansas ended their magical run.
Previous grads include Houston and Virginia Tech in 2019, South Carolina in 2017 — all the way to the Final Four — and Dayton back in 2014. Will any of these break through this year?
Initial NBK rankings for 2021-22 season. These include any school in the top 75 KenPom OR leading their conference in KenPom rankings, AND have never made the Sweet Sixteen in the years 1985. KenPom rankings through Saturday 2/26/2022. Bracketology as of Sunday morning 2/27/2022.
This year’s field is noticeable weaker than last year’s, with none in the Top 20 and the lowest well into the 100s. UC Irvine, Princeton, Liberty, and South Alabama are all tops in their conference in KenPom, but are not leading the conference in the standings and therefore not projected into the field of 68 by Joey Brackets.
Also notable out of this group is the giant spread among the 12-seeds present. San Francisco (a strong #25 in KenPom) and North Texas (40) are woefully underseeded, while South Dakota St‘s position (69) should please all parties, and Iona (87) are getting a Rick Pitino boost. Don’t see your forlorn school here? Never fear – Oregon St. and Oral Roberts were not even on our radar at this time last year. So you Rutgers, St. Bonaventure, and Colorado fans don’t give up just yet.
SLU travels to upstate New York to once again take on St. Bonaventure in a Matinee Nowhere Near Manhattan on Monday, Valentine’s Day 2022. SLU is still smarting from the SBU-administered beating on Friday night at Chaifetz Arena. The final was 68-61 but it did not seem that close, as the Bonnies dominated the second half at both ends of the floor.
Prediction: Yuri Collins controls the game with 11 assists and 1 turnover, and Okoro and Linssen wrestle big double O to a draw down low. SLU wins 78-72.
Instead, Yuri Collins offset 7 assists with 8(!) turnovers, and Osun Osunniyi shrugged off foul trouble to contribute 12 points, 6 rebounds and 6(!) blocks in only 26 minutes. While OO sat, big Bonnie backup Abdoul Karim Coulibaly held the Billikens in check, chipping in 3 steals in a conference-season-high 14 minutes. Kyle Lofton overcame some early shooting woes to garner KenPom game MVP honors with 16 points, 8 assists, and 4 steals playing all 40 minutes.
At times, Collins looked like the only offense the Billikens had, as they were mystified by the SBU zone looks. Jordan Nesbitt tossed up a doughnut — his first scoreless outing of the season — and Gibson Jimerson hit two threes early and the broad sides of barns thereafter. Fred Thatch Jr. had one of his worst games as well, and may have cost himself a starting spot on Monday.
Through 2/11/2022. Blue dots represent last game vs SBU last Friday 2/11.
The Bonnies that showed up at Chaifetz on Friday night looked like the SBU clubs from the past couple of years: patient, experienced, long, and defiantly not deep. If Friday marked a beginning of a return to form for SBU, they will torpedo SLUs at-large tournament ambitions in the process and likely render the A-10 a one-bid league. KenPom has SBU by a single point 71-70. Hold your loved ones close and enjoy the show.
Through 2/11/2022. Gold dots represent last game vs SLU on 2/11.
Surprising SLU takes on disappointing St. Bonaventure tonight at 8 PM Central at Chaifetz Arena, in the first game of a COVID-induced weekend home-and-home.
The last time these two teams met was in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament last March. SLU came in #39 KenPom, squarely off the bubble but with a punchers chance of scoring the automatic bid. SBU was #30 KenPom and seemed safely IN the field.
Three minutes in, it was 11-2 Bonnies. After taking an 8-point lead into the half, SBU went on a 12-2 run early in the second and the rout was on. SLU never threatened and were trounced 71-53. SLU accepted an NIT bid and took a first-round loss. SBU then beat VCU for the A-10 auto-bid and snagged a 9-seed, then lost big to LSU in round one of the Big Dance.
The blue dots on the chart below show just how feeble SLU was vs SBU last time — Gibson Jimerson came off the bench to hit three threes, Jordan Goodwin was so-so, but everyone else was thoroughly routed.
Current Billikens in bold. Last game vs SBU is blue dot.
SBU was a Junior-laden team last year, and everyone is back for more. They are near top of the nation in Minutes Continuity and Experience, and are dead-last in Bench Minutes. No need to look beyond Osunniyi, Adaway, Lofton, Holmes and Welch for a difference-maker in this one. So what’s gone wrong with SBU? Their offense looks pretty similar to last year — very slow pace, grind out each possession — though they are not hitting the offensive boards as successfully. But the defense has really suffered — the #20 KenPom defense last year has now dropped to #157, giving up a full 10 points more per 100 possessions. Opponents Effective FG % are up to 50% this year from 45.5% last year. They aren’t forcing many turnovers, so if they are not blocking your shot, you are probably getting a good shot.
Current Bonnies in bold. Last game vs SLU is the gray dot.
Prediction: Yuri Collins controls the game with 11 assists and 1 turnover, and Okoro and Linssen wrestle big double O to a draw down low. SLU wins 78-72.
Congratulations Kim English on landing the top job at George Mason University, and a fine Patriot you shall make. I’m sure you are busy shopping the transfer portal and watching reams of film on your new squad. Here’s a summary of what you are walking into.
Is George Mason more like Duke, or more like DePaul? The Simple Rating System (SRS) puts the Pats right around the Blue Demon line. Larranaga’s surprise Final Four team of 2005-06 stood out, as did his last squad in 2010-11. Mason has not been back to the NCAA tournament since.
Turning our attention to the players, here is a look at how the current roster matches up with Patriots of the recent past. There is some tempo bias built into these ratings but that should not weigh heavily, as GM has only varied from slow to moderate in the transition from Jim Larranaga to Paul Hewitt to Dave Paulsen. This list is also not portal-aware, meaning some of these fellows bolded as current may in fact be departing.
To calibrate this system, let’s compare it to what you have been focusing on the past few years. Among recent Vols, Jaden Springer stands out as a future pro, separating from the pack of Punter, Hopson and even the great Admiral Schofield. Grant Williams is still another level above.
Going back a little further, here are this year’s Colorado Buffaloes and how they compare to recent clubs. Very high level of talent for your old team this season, and the consistency of McKinley Wright IV stands out in particular. Your guy D’Shawn Schwartz shows a similar consistency; it will be interesting to see how his contribution grows with a larger role.
Finally, just for fun let’s see how this year’s Mizzou Tigers compare to you and your teammates. These listings go all the way back to 1999, because I am a Mizzou fan and took the time to assemble boxscores before the time they started becoming readily available in 2010-11. The tempo bias we dismissed earlier is very strong here — as you would expect the Mike Anderson teams were among the highest tempo in the country, while the Cuonzo Martin editions are among the most deliberate. DMC the JYD’s excellence is undeniable — $73.5M in career NBA earnings — though he benefits in this analysis from both a higher tempo and eliminating the drag of his freshman year at Vanderbilt.
Beyond my undying gratitude to you for hitting those two free throws against Marquette in 2009 — how many other guys can say they had enough impact to force a rule change — and for reconciling by winning in 2012, I wish you the best in your new endeavor and am happy to help in any way that I can. I’ll be rooting hard for the Pats whenever they don’t play Mizzou or SLU 🙂
The men’s Sweet Sixteen is now set, including three schools who are there for the first time since the field was first expanded to 64 teams back in 1985.
On Monday, the Creighton Bluejays held Ohio to a .39/.23/.56 shooting line and avoided the Bobbies shot-blockers, ripping off a decisive 23-4 run to close out the first half and open the second. From there they cruised 72-58 to their first Sweet Sixteen and graduated from the Never Been Kissed forever.
Facing a much tougher opponents, fellow 5-seed Colorado was not so fortunate. A relatively tight and slow game — led by Florida St. 24-20 at half — opened up in the second half and the deeper Seminoles wore out the Buffs. CU coughed it up 19 times on offense and had no answer on D for Anthony Polite, the well-mannered young man had 22 points, 4 steals, 5 rebounds and 4 assists. Buffs senior guard McKinley Wright IV struggled with FSU’s length, closing out a career that will count him among the all-time best IV’s in college basketball history.
Abilene Christian followed a win in what would be Shaka Smart’s final game as coach of Texas with an underwhelming performance against suddenly sizzling UCLA. The Bruins took care of the ball — just 9 TOs — shot well from three and were all over the offensive and defensive boards. The Wildcast made their mark and their money but willl return for NBK consideration again next year.
Final NBK Rankings for the 2021 men’s college basketball season. These are Division I schools who had never made the Sweet Sixteen — aka Never Been Kissed — in the many years since the field was first expanded to 64 teams back in 1985. The three that made it this year for the first time will no longer be eliglble for NBK consideration.
Tinkle family powers….activate! Oregon St wins! First Sweet Sixteen appearance for the Beavers since 1982. Things got ugly in this one, but in the end OSU followed an age-old upset formula to take out Oklahoma St.
Keys to victory:
Turn it over 20 times
Record just 7 assists
Shoot 30% from three
Make 1,000 free throws
Oregon St. turned it into a Free Throw contest and dominated in that regard, going 32-35 from the stripe including 15-16 from Ethan Thompson. Old Syracuse fans threw up in their mouths a little reading that. Survive and advance. Well done, Beavs.
Oral Roberts wins in a second straight huge upset, this time over 7-seed Florida. The Golden Eagles — as the fourth-place finisher in the Summit, a 15 seed, and 150+ in the KenPom — were not even on the radar of the NBK committe before this historic win. Maybe we owe them an apology? Nah, we’re good. Congrats to the players and that’s all.
With these two off to bigger and better, let’s check in with those whose journey continues. North Texas raced out to a 21-13 lead over #5 Villanova, but the Wildcats restored order quickly and were up 20 at the half, never to look back.
Rutgers‘ loss was a heartbreaker for NBK fans. The #9 Scarlet Knights fought toe-to-toe with #2 Houston and were up 10 with 9:00 to play 52-42. Then the Cougs found a few cracks in the vaunted Rutgers defense, and got the stops and offensive rebounds they needed to eek out a win 63-60. The ‘gers seem to finally have something good going, and we expect them at or near the top of the NBK in 2022.
Monday
#5 Creighton a strong favorite vs #12 Ohio. You may be wondering about the Bobcats status vis-a-vis the NBK; we know we were after ORU and OSU. Ohio made the Sweet Sixteen in 2012, beating Michigan and South Florida and in the process vaulting coach John Groce to the Illinois job. Three point shooting is often decisive, but Creighton and Ohio are two of the top 2-Point shooting teams in the country (#11 and #10). If Ohio can block a few shots early and force Creighton into a perimeter attack, they might pull this one off and keep the Bluejays in the NBK one more year.
#5 Colorado is an even match with #4 Florida St. Both shoot the three well, and while Florida St. is super-deep and super-long (#1 in Average Height), Colorado has a decided advantage at the Free Throw line (#2 in FT% at 82.3%). We’ll see if the Seminole depth (hey now) can take the Buff legs out from under them.
#13 Abilene Christian a longshot vs #11 UCLA, though to me this one is more even than meets the eye. Virtually everything that the Bruins do well on offense, the Wildcats do well on D. The UCLA turnover count will be one to watch at their offensive end, as Abilene is best in the nation at forcing (27.0%, #1). And the Wildcats lone offensive strength 3-Point Shooting % (37.0, #45) is notoriously volatile and upset lover’s catnip.
NBK Rankings through Day 2 of the 2021 NCAA Tournament. These schools have not made the second weekend of the tourney since the field was first expanded to 64 back in 1985, therefore no Sweet Sixteen, and Never Been Kissed. Oregon St and Spoken Bob changed all that on Sunday night, and they Have Been Kissed.
Notes
Data courtesy Kenpom.com and NCAA.org. For “KenPom Sweet Sixteen Odds” since we are now in Round 2 and on the brink of Sweet Sixteen glory, the KenPom odds ($) are of winning the second round game itself.
College Basketball analysis and other random tidbits
