NBK 2022 Wrap Up

TCU was thisclose to giving us another first-time Sweet Sixteen participant, but alas the Horned Frogs fell to Arizona in Overtime in the late Sunday Night thriller and will live to haunt the NBK another season. Before we go into the particulars of the TCU-Arizona game, let’s take a look at the final-ish NBK Rankings, as Saint Peter’s alone graduates.

NBK Rankings after the Second Round. KenPom rankings through Sunday 3/20/2022. Win Probabilities were calculated using KenPom Adjusted Offensive & Defensive Efficiency ratings as close to the Game Date as possible. Though the Sweet Sixteen is set for this year, these rankings are not final as remaining games — NCAA, NIT, CIT, QWERTY — can still nudge the KenPom rankings a bit.

In our preview of Sunday night’s game, we noted the one strength TCU held over Arizona was in Offensive Rebounding. The Horned Frogs were #1 in the country in OR% and flexed those muscles against Arizona, snagging 40% of their misses. Eddie Lampkin Jr alone grabbed 10 offensive boards to go with 20 points and a pair of blocks. Big Lamp does not look the part, but he’s the most-productive TCU player on a Game Score Per Minute basis. Mike Miles and Damion Baugh shot poorly from three (1-10 combined) and Miles racked up fouls all second half. Chuck O’Bannon Jr had a good all-around game — 23 points, 5 rebounds, 4 steals — and is fun to watch shooting the three. And Micah Peavy had a really rough one — 1 point, 4 turnovers, 5 fouls — but Emanuel Miller and Xavier Cork contributed near their usual production and TCU was in this from the opening tip to the final whistle.

Difficult-to-see gray dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Horned Frogs’ second round OT loss to Arizona 3/20/2022. Current Frogs in Bold.

With a resounding dunk, followed by a season-saving three-pointer with 14 seconds left, Bennedict Mathurin showed his incredible array of skills. Perhaps more incredible was that even with Mathurin’s line of 30 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals, the player of the game (both in Game Score and in KenPom MVP) was Christian Koloko. The big man from Cameroon put up 28 points, 12 rebounds (7 offensive), 2 assists, 3 blocks and a steal while missing only one shot (12-13 from the field). Mathurin provided the fireworks in the end, but Koloko was doing everything everywhere all night long, offsetting sub-par performances from most of the Wildcats and an absolute Shark Sandwich from Kerr Kriisa. The overcaffinated headband-sporting freshman from Estonia, perhaps returning too quickly from a narsty ankle injury, nearly shot the Wildcats out of it. The most egregious display was in Overtime, when Kriisa clanged three straight three-point attempts from the same left-corner spot, Koloko dutifully shagging his misses and covering up his mistakes.

Red dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Wilcats’ second round win over NBK hopeful TCU on 3/20/2022. Current Cats in Bold. Kerr Kriisa the only minus player on Sunday.

NBK NEWS
San Francisco lost their coach, as Todd Golden signed up to lead the Florida Gators program.
Colorado St seeks to keep Niko Medved around, giving him a lucrative extension.
Murray St coach Matt McMahon is head to LSU to clean up Will Wade’s mess.
ESPN’s Coaching Carousel page ($) is very helpful in tracking these off-season activities. CBS has a great page too.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and Basketball Reference and RealGM.com
Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here
Plot format by Aaron Baggett
Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy
Inspiration from Rock M Nation

Team colors courtesy:
Benjamin S. Baumer and Gregory J. Matthews (2020). teamcolors: Color Palettes for Pro Sports Teams. R package version 0.0.4.