Taking a WAB look at the players in today’s Elite Eight matchups, their performance in the last game relative to their usual, and how they compare with others at the same school over the past eleven-ish seasons.
(10) Miami vs (1) Kansas – 1:20 PM CDT on TBS
Current Canes in Bold. Green dots are Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Canes’ win over Iowa St in the Sweet Sixteen on Friday. Jordan Miller and Kameron McGusty were outstanding against the Cyclones. Miami’s a very top-heavy team; we suspect at least three of the top four will need to over-perform AND Sam Waardenburg is going to have to pull down 10 boards OR make four three-pointers for the Hurricanes to blow past Auntie Em and Kansas. Rumor has it Pat O’Brien has a very large wager on Miami for reasons unknown.Current hocks in Bold. Red dot represents Game Score Per 40 Minutes performance for the Hawkes in their Sweet Sixteen win over Providence on Friday. Impressive in their un-impressiveness, most of the Jayhawks were average or below and yet had little trouble dispatching the Friars. Your KenPom Game MVP for that one? It was the red-hot Remy Martin, for the third straight game. Wondering aloud who the last, and how many ever, have reeled off three straight as such in the NCAA tournament. And we’d have to assume he’s the first ever to do it (a) not starting, and (b) never having gained a KenPom Game MVP during the season. Is today vs Miami the game Martin regresses to the mean? What is his mean? A quick check says that his Arizona St level was right around that of David McCormack. How many questions can one caption hold? (We see you down there, Charlie Moore, below the Frankamp Line.)
(15) Saint Peter’s vs (8) North Carolina – 4:05 PM CDT on TBS
Current Cocks in Bold. Light blue dots are Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Peacocks’ win over Purdue in the Sweet Sixteen on Friday. Saint Peter’s remains the deepest team left in the field, playing 10 against the Boilermakers and #17 overall in the country per KenPom in Bench Minutes. This distributed production allowed the Peacocks to weather an off-game from leader KC Ndefo — fouling out in just 18 minutes — and a return to mortal shooting stats from Mustache Microwave Doug Edert — just 1 of 6 from the field.Current Heels in Bold. Dark blue dots denote Game Score Per 40 Minutes performance in the Heels’ OT win in the Sweet Sixteen over UCLA on Friday. As predicted, Brady Manek DID come back to Earth. Caleb Love, however, came back to Earth only long enough to rocket to the moon. The Saint Louisan bombed his way to 30 points and 4 assists against just one turnover to gain KenPom Game MVP honors. Armando Bacot and Brady Manek present an unusual combination of big guys — a huge contrast to that of Purdue’s twin towers Zach Edey and Travion Williams. The Heels duo are a Mr Inside of Bacot (9 three point attempts in 3 seasons) and Mr Outside of Manek (leading the Tar Heels in three-point makes with 88 and percent at 39.1%).
(5) Houston vs. (2) Villanova – 5:09 PM CDT on TBS
Maroon(?) dots are Game Score Per 40 Minute values for the Cougars in their Sweet Sixteen win over Arizona on Thursday. Moore and White weren’t great, but everyone else was terrific, led by KenPom Game MVP Jamal Shead and his 21 points and 6 assists.Light blue dots are the Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Cats’ win over Michigan in the Sweet Sixteen on Thursday night. Jermaine Samuels was crucial and had to be, as the rest of the Cats were at or below their averages.
(4) Arkansas vs. (2) Duke – 7:49 PM CDT on TBS
Black dots are Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Hogs’ win in the Sweet Sixteen over Gonzaga on Thursday night. Another strong game from Chris Lykes and solid from everyone else.Black dots are Game Score Per 40 Minutes for the Blue Devils in their Sweet Sixteen win over Texas Tech on Thursday. Paolo Banchero was the main man in this one, with Mark Williams doing what he normally does (hard to see, apologies for the similar-colored dots). Jeremy Roach seemed absolutely dominant down the stretch, but four turnovers held down his overall Game Score.
(15) Saint Peter’s vs (3) Purdue – 6:09 PM CDT on CBS
Light blue dots are Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Cocks’ win over Murray St in the second round last Saturday. Current Cocks in Bold. We discussed this one on Sunday – an out-of-this-world effort from leader KC Ndefo, some clutch shooting again from Doug Edert, and many good performances contributed to the resounding win.Black dots are Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Boliers’ second round win over Texas on Sunday. Current Boilers in Bold. Everyone did their part against Texas, within their usual range of performance, with the notable exception of Trevion Williams. His 22 points and 7 rebounds in just 24 minutes were crucial.
(4) Providence vs (1) Kansas – 6:29 PM CDT on TBS
Current Friars in Bold. Gray dots mark Game Score Per 40 Minutes performance in the Friars’ second round win over Richmond on Saturday. Top performer Nate Watson put in a solid performance in limited minutes due to foul trouble, but the rest of the team absolutely brought it — five scored in double figures (and a sixth had 9) and six registered assists. Current hocks in Bold. Red dot represents Game Score Per 40 Minutes performance for the Hawkes in their second round win over Creighton on Saturday. Like Providence, kansas got outsized performances from just about everyone in the second round. Remy Martin was on a complete other level — 20 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists in just 29 minutes — and garnered back-to-back KenPom Game MVP honors for the first time since Feb 2020 when he was with Arizona St. Also humorous to see Charlie Moore way down near the bottom of this list.
(8) North Carolina vs (4) UCLA – 8:39 PM CDT on CBS
Current Heels in Bold. Dark blue dots denote Game Score Per 40 Minutes performance in the Heels’ OT win in the second round over Baylord on Saturday. Brady Manek WILL come back to earth. Caleb Love should as well. The Tar Heels have a tight rotation – only playing six, maybe seven — with Kerwin Walton mostly relegated to the bench and Dontrez Styles‘ minutes varying wildly week-to-week. This analysis calls to question whether Justin McKoy is contributing enough to warrant his modest minutes as well.Current Bruins in Bold. Gold dot indicates Game Score Per 40 Minutes performance in the Bruins’ second round win over Saint Mary’s on Saturday. These results for the Double-J boys at the top seem to belie the eye test — Jaquez has looked reliable and indispensible while Juzang seems like he’s drifting in and out. Tyger Campbell was just as good as hit dot would indicate, and Jules Bernard came away with the KenPom Game MVP honors. This UCLA offense is very good at taking care of the ball — just 6 turnovers on Saturday and #5 in the country for the season — and the Tar Heels do not take it away. They start boxing out once you cross mid-court đ
(11) Iowa St vs (10) Miami FL – 8:59 PM CDT on TBS
Current Clones in Bold. Gold dot is Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Cyclones’ second round win over Wisconsin on Sunday. Iowa St is the one team that can safely claim not to have played very well in the second round, and still won. Ordinarily I’d blame a slow pace on these low marks, but Sunday’s game clipped along at a 69 possession pace, a few more than both school’s average. Overall the Cyclones shot terribly but were solid on the boards and turned the Badgers over just enough to escape with the win. Doubtful they get another Kane-esque performance from Gabe Kascheur tonight, but entirely reasonable to expect improvement from most others.Current Canes in Bold. Green dots are Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Canes’ second round win over Auburn on Sunday. Charlie Moore started at the bottom (see above) now he’s here. Miami does not rely on its bench much — just 22 minutes total in a relatively-comfortable win Sunday and #354 in the country for the season in Bench Minutes per KenPom — so these top four carry an outsized burden.
Black dots are Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Hogs’ second round win over New Mexico St last Saturday. Lykes had a great game, but the rest of the team just did what they do. Overall this is not a super-talented Arkansas team.Red dots are Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Zags’ win over Memphis last Saturday. Even with Holmgren’s breakout season he grades out lower than the great Brandon Clarke. I’d pay to watch him offensive rebound. Timme was outstanding, and had to be.
(2) Villanova vs (11) Michigan
Light blue dots are the Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Cats’ win over Ohio St last Sunday. Not a ton of high-level talent on this year’s edition, and they are hurt by Tempo Bias. Villanova typically plays slow, but this year’s edition has the parking brake on at all times. Maize dots are Game Score Per 40 Minutes for the Wolverines in their second round win over Tennessee last Saturday. Hunter Dickinson is the most-productive Wolverine in recent memory, and had to perform well above his usual high level to beat the Vols. He had help from Brooks and Williams, while Houstan, Johns and Collins were relative saboteurs.
(3) Texas Tech vs (2) Duke
Black dots mark Game Score Per 40 Minutes for the Red Raiders in their second round win over Notre Dame on Sunday. Not a dominant performance by any means, with only Obanor and Nadolny performing better than usual. Bryson Williams is in some high-dollar NBA lottery pick company. Black dots are Game Score Per 40 Minutes for the Blue Devils in their second round win over Michigan St on Sunday. My goodness Zion Williamson was good. Mark Williams has a boring name compared to his company in this chart, and he had a strong game vs Sparty. Paolo Banchero has been more productive than Jayson Tatum thus far.
(5) Houston vs (1) Arizona
Maroon(?) dots are Game Score Per 40 Minute values for the Cougars in their second round victory over Illinois on Sunday. Houston continues to operate in relative anonymity. Josh Carlton is the most-productive Coug in recent history and has zero buzz in NBA draft circles. Only Moore and Shead had above-norm games vs the Illini.Blue dot is Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Wildcats’ thrilling OT win over TCU in the second round. We went in depth in our NBK post on Monday. We’ll see if rookie coach Lloyd is null-and-void, or if he does the right thing and starts Justin Kier over Kerr Kriisa.
TCU was thisclose to giving us another first-time Sweet Sixteen participant, but alas the Horned Frogs fell to Arizona in Overtime in the late Sunday Night thriller and will live to haunt the NBK another season. Before we go into the particulars of the TCU-Arizona game, let’s take a look at the final-ish NBK Rankings, as Saint Peter’s alone graduates.
NBK Rankings after the Second Round. KenPom rankings through Sunday 3/20/2022. Win Probabilities were calculated using KenPom Adjusted Offensive & Defensive Efficiency ratings as close to the Game Date as possible. Though the Sweet Sixteen is set for this year, these rankings are not final as remaining games — NCAA, NIT, CIT, QWERTY — can still nudge the KenPom rankings a bit.
In our preview of Sunday night’s game, we noted the one strength TCU held over Arizona was in Offensive Rebounding. The Horned Frogs were #1 in the country in OR% and flexed those muscles against Arizona, snagging 40% of their misses. Eddie Lampkin Jr alone grabbed 10 offensive boards to go with 20 points and a pair of blocks. Big Lamp does not look the part, but he’s the most-productive TCU player on a Game Score Per Minute basis. Mike Miles and Damion Baugh shot poorly from three (1-10 combined) and Miles racked up fouls all second half. Chuck O’Bannon Jr had a good all-around game — 23 points, 5 rebounds, 4 steals — and is fun to watch shooting the three. And Micah Peavy had a really rough one — 1 point, 4 turnovers, 5 fouls — but Emanuel Miller and Xavier Cork contributed near their usual production and TCU was in this from the opening tip to the final whistle.
Difficult-to-see gray dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Horned Frogs’ second round OT loss to Arizona 3/20/2022. Current Frogs in Bold.
With a resounding dunk, followed by a season-saving three-pointer with 14 seconds left, Bennedict Mathurin showed his incredible array of skills. Perhaps more incredible was that even with Mathurin’s line of 30 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals, the player of the game (both in Game Score and in KenPom MVP) was Christian Koloko. The big man from Cameroon put up 28 points, 12 rebounds (7 offensive), 2 assists, 3 blocks and a steal while missing only one shot (12-13 from the field). Mathurin provided the fireworks in the end, but Koloko was doing everything everywhere all night long, offsetting sub-par performances from most of the Wildcats and an absolute Shark Sandwich from Kerr Kriisa. The overcaffinated headband-sporting freshman from Estonia, perhaps returning too quickly from a narsty ankle injury, nearly shot the Wildcats out of it. The most egregious display was in Overtime, when Kriisa clanged three straight three-point attempts from the same left-corner spot, Koloko dutifully shagging his misses and covering up his mistakes.
Red dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Wilcats’ second round win over NBK hopeful TCU on 3/20/2022. Current Cats in Bold. Kerr Kriisa the only minus player on Sunday.
NBK NEWS San Francisco lost their coach, as Todd Golden signed up to lead the Florida Gators program. Colorado St seeks to keep Niko Medved around, giving him a lucrative extension. Murray St coach Matt McMahon is head to LSU to clean up Will Wade’s mess. ESPN’s Coaching Carousel page ($) is very helpful in tracking these off-season activities. CBS has a great page too.
In this space we track the fate of the Never Been Kissed, those schools that have not made the Sweet Sixteen of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament in all the years since the field was first expanded to 64 teams back in 1985. Saturday night, the Saint Peter’s Peacocks advanced to their first Sweet Sixteen in school history, upsetting fellow NBK hopeful Murray St 70-60. This game was tight throughout the first half, the Peacocks took control right out of the break, staking a ten-point lead three minutes into the second half and playing the Racers to a draw until the final buzzer.
KC Ndefo was sensational in this one, with 17 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists and 6 big blocks. In our preview, we pointed out problems the Peacock front court has had this season controlling their turnovers in the front court — Ndefo had just three himself and as a team Saint Peter’s committed only ten. That translates to 15.6% of their possessions, down from their average of 20.6%. And again Doug Edert aka The Mustachioed Microwave came up huge in key moments down the stretch, scoring ten straight — 3 FTs, two jumpers assisted by Ndefo, and a huge 3-pointer assited by Fousseyni Drame. By the time he was done, there were just 3:00 left and Saint Peter’s had an 88.3% chance of making the Sweet Sixteen.
Light blue dots represent Game Score Per 40 Minutes performance in the Peacocks’ historic win over Murray St on Saturday night 3/19. Current (proud) Peacocks in Bold.
SUNDAY NBK current #2 TCU (28%) vs Arizona in the nightcap — 8:40 PM CDT on CBS. The Horned Frogs last good run through the NCAA tournament was in 1967-68, when they made it to the Regional Final under Johnny Swaim, falling to a powerhouse Houston team featuring Elvin Hayes and Don Chaney.
NBK Rankings — based on best-to-worst Sweet Sixteen Odds — after the First Round. KenPom rankings through Saturday 3/19/2022. Sweet Sixteen Odds for TCU is (are?) their Win Prob vs Arizona today. Win Probabilities calculated using KenPom Adjusted Offensive & Defensive Efficiency ratings.
Arizona The Arizona Wildcats of 2021-22 are not the Houston Cougars of 1967-68, but entered the tournament as the overall #2 behind #1 Gonzaga, and rolled through their first round matchup with 16-seed Wright St. Tommy Lloyd, as longtime assistant at Gonzaga under Mark Few, took over this year from noted shoe enthusiast Sean Miller. And the results have been instantaneous and startling. The rebuilt Wildcats are one of only four schools with Top 20 KenPom ratings in both Adjusted Offense and Adjusted Defense (Gonzaga, Houston, Baylor – RIP). Arizona is young (near the bottom in Experience), huge (#2 in Average Height), and they share the ball effectively (also #2 in Assists Per Field Goals Made). They are also strong Offensive Rebounders (#15), however TCU is #1 in the same category. Strength on strength.
With all due respect to Oumar Ballo and Kim Aiken Jr — highly productive in limited roles — this edition is led by 6’10” Azoulas Tubelis and 7’0″ Christian Koloko down low, and the immaculate 6’6″ Bennedict Mathurin on the wing. Koloko dominated the overwhelmed Raiders — 17 points, 13 rebounds, 6 assists, 5 blocks — such that a decent performance Tubelis — 13 points, 5 rebounds but 3 turnovers — and a relative stinker from Mathurin — 4 turnovers — were moot. Pelle Larsson, Justin Kier, and Dalen Terry had above-average games vers Wright St, while normal starting PG Kerr Kriisa remained out since the Pac-12 Tournament.
Red dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Wilcats’ opening round matchup with Wright St 3/18/2022. Current Cats in Bold. And props for the glorious years of both DeAndre Ayton and Derrick Williams.
Seeing how the current Big Three ranks with NBA talent like Lauri Markkanen and Aaron Gordon, and the “role players” are all better than the average historical Wildcat, the Horned Frogs task looks daunting.
TCU TCU is very good at what is quickly becoming a dying art form: Offensive Rebounding. The Horned Frogs are #1 in the country in OR%, retrieving a healthy 37.8% of their own misses. However, that percent represents a significant step down from past seasons and projects to be the lowest in the KenPom era. TCU has a good defense, solid in all areas, and they have weathered a tough schedule (#9 overall), particularly in Feb/March.
Their top five — Emanuel Miller, Eddie Lampkin Jr, Chuck O’Bannon Jr, Mike Miles, and Damion Baugh — form a tight fist of productivity best described as “not quite to the level of Desomnd Bane, but still pretty good”. Xavier Cork, Francisco Farabello, and Micah Peavy are solid contributors off the bench.
Difficult-to-see gray dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Horned Frogs’ opening round win over Seton Hall 3/18/2022. Current Frogs in Bold.
TCU’s path to victory, their road to the Sweet Sixteen, their route to NBK Graduation, appears to be paved with slowing things down and getting every single rebound. They’ll again need to be clicking on at least 4 of 5 cylinders to beat mighty Arizona.
We began the tournament with 23 Never Been Kissed (NBK) hopefuls. Just three survived and advanced to the Round of 32. Two of those three — Murray St. and Saint Peter’s — square off today for a berth in the Sweet Sixteen, the first in either school’s history. Before we dive deeply into this historic matchup, we look back at Friday’s games with NBK ramifications.
FRIDAY TCU thumped Seton Hall 69-42 in a game that was all but decided by halftime. We’ll take a closer look at TCU and their chances against Arizona in this space on Sunday morning. Colgate gave Wisconsin all they could handle and more, losing 67-60 in a game that was much closer than the final score suggests. The Raiders battled a raucous and partisan Milwaukee crowd, and held a 52-50 lead with under nine minutes to play. The Badgers’ Johnny Davis remembered he was a first-team All-American, and Wisconsin rode the frenzied crowd to a 10-0 run and the win. By contrast, Cal St Fullerton put up little resistance to mighty Duke, falling 78-61. In Coach K’s final tournament, Duke looks like a great team for about 25 minutes each game and a Horizon League contender the other 15. Next up for the Blue Devils is Michigan St. Delaware was dispatched by Villanova 80-60, as the Fightin’ Bidens ran out of gas late in the first half. Jacksonville St lost to Auburn 80-61. Similar to Delaware, they were able to slow things down and keep pace with the Tigers for much of the first half (~60 possession pace). But Auburn cranked things up to 80 possession level early in the second and ran away with it. Montana St were annihilated by Texas Tech 97-62, the Red Raiders delivering the most dominant performance thus far. Tech hangs their hat on their #1 KenPom Defense, and in this one added six players in double-figures scoring. Yale lost to Purdue 78-56 as the multi-cultural duo of Jaden Ivey and Zach Edey were well beyond Ivy (sp) League levels. Wright St lost to Arizona 87-70, as these Raiders had nothing for the surging Wildcats. Arizona will look to end another team’s NBK aspirations when they take on TCU on Sunday.
SATURDAY It’s #1 Murray St (78%) vs #3 Saint Peter’s (22%) — 6:45 PM CDT on CBS — to graduate from the list of the Never Been Kissed once and forever. We’ll have to fire up the NBK supercomputer and go through the annals to see if we’ve ever had anyone with a 78% chance of making it.
NBK Rankings — based on best-to-worst Sweet Sixteen Odds — after the First Round. KenPom rankings through Friday 3/18/2022. Sweet Sixteen Odds for the three schools still alive are simply the Win Probability in their Round of 32 game. Win Probabilities calculated using KenPom Adjusted Offensive & Defensive Efficiency ratings.
Let’s take a closer look at Saturday’s game in typical Whatsabilliken.com fashion, by comparing today’s players with those in recent school history.
Murray State Ja Morant is currently lighting up the NBA as the breakout star of the Memphis Grizzlies, second in the West and poised for a deep run in this year’s playoffs. Morant spent two years at Murray St, both ending in OVC tournament titles and NCAA appearances, plus a stomping of Marquette to top things off. He has not forgotten his time in Murray, KY. After Saint Peter’s beat Kentucky in a historic upset Thursday night, dodging a potential second-round date with the Racers, Morant took to Twitter to troll.
Anyway, back to the Racers of today. On Thursday, the San Fancisco Dons and Jamaree Boyea pushed Murray St to overtime, largely on the brilliance of Boyea but also by containing KJ Williams down low. Normally 18 points and 7 rebounds are nothing to sneeze at, but as you can see below overall Williams was well below his usual outstanding production, and he’s the best non-Morant player Murray St has seen of late. Stepping into the void was Jordan Skipper-Brown, proving to the Dons that he IS a war-time consigliari by going for 12 points, 10 rebounds in just 17 minutes of action. His Gold Dot for the game was Beyond-Morant-level good.
Gold dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Racers’ opening round matchup with San Francisco 3/17/2022. Current Racers in Bold. And wow, was Ja Morant incredible.
Saint Peter’s The Peacocks do not feature any NBA-caliber players in their recent past, and Bacon benefits somewhat in that we can only count his stellar senior season. A very good player is Ryan Bacon from Maplewood, NJ; a Saint Peter’s Hall of Famer Class of 2016, and quite mouth-watering when you sit down to think abou it. Marvin Dominique transferred to Saint Peter’s after two quiet years at Fordham, and thrived in his two MAAC campaigns. How many Peacocks have been drafted by the NBA ever? Our guess would have been two, but the correct answer is fourteen!
Turning to today’s ‘Cocks, KC Ndelfo has been stalwart on the Defensive boards and as a Shot-blocker for Saint Peter’s in his four seasons. He struggled hard Thursday against Kentucky’s front court — 7 points, 3 rebounds, 5 turnovers — and Oumar Diahame & Isiah Dasher were even worse in their combined 26 torpedoing minutes. Fortunately, Darryl Banks III was sensational (27 points, just 3 turnovers), Hassan Drame was versatile (7 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, a block and a steal), and Jaylen Murray helped contain Kentucky’s backcourt.
But the shooting of Doug Edert carried the Cocks to round two and within shouting distance of the Sweet Sixteen. The Junior poured in 20 points in just 25 minutes, including 8-8 from the free-throw line and 2-2 from distance. His performance was figuratively off-the-charts.
Light blue dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Peacocks’ opening round matchup with Kentuckky 3/17/2022. Current (proud) Peacocks in Bold.
Both Murray St and Saint Peter’s play solid defense, but the Racers have a significant edge on offense. Pay close attention to Turnovers, particularly in the front court where the Peacocks particularly struggle.
Data courtesy Kenpom.com and Basketball Reference and RealGM.com Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here Plot format by Aaron Baggett Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy Inspiration from Rock M Nation Team colors courtesy: Benjamin S. Baumer and Gregory J. Matthews (2020). teamcolors: Color Palettes for Pro Sports Teams. R package version 0.0.4.
Round one is underway, and it’s been a doozy. Below we recap Thursday’s action and look ahead to the weekend from the standpoint of the Never Been Kissed (NBK) — our tagline for those schools who have never made it to the Sweet Sixteen in all the years since the NCAA first expanded the D1 Men’s tournament to 64 teams back in 1985.
THURSDAY
Saint Peter’s beat Kentucky in Overtime! <Double-checks> This is not a misprint. Saint Peter’s beat Kentucky. We believe this is the tenth time a 15-seed has beaten a 2-seed, and this one was an extremely entertaining bracket-breaker. Kellan Grady from Kentucky continued a rough week during which he appeared to be a double-agent sent by Dayton to torpedo the Wildcats’ chances. We are not reporting this — just speculating. Murray St beat fellow NBKer San Francisco also in overtime 92-87. Before this one even tipped off, the NBK was assured of having a graduate this year, by virtue of Saint Peter’s booting Kentucky from this pod containing 3 of 4 NBKers. The NBK studio show — not a real thing — will hereby move to Indianapolis for Saturday’s GameDay telecast. Colorado St lost to Michigan 75-63. After leading the entire first half and draining 8 of 9 from three, the Rams faltered in the second half and their NBK graduation dreams vanish. Vermont lost Arkansas 75-71 as the Hogs’ JD Notae took over in the second half to push his team to victory and end an impressive Catamounts season. Akron lost to UCLA 57-53, giving up a decisive 15-2 run by Tyger Campbell and the Bruins in the last five minutes. South Dakota St were victims of Providence 66-57. Boise St lost to Memphis 64-53. Rough day for the Mountain West – only Saint Mary’s remains after day one — Wyoming was eliminated in the First Four and BSU and SDSU bowed out without putting up much of a fight. Longwood lost to Tennessee 88-56. Impressive win by a hot Vols squad. Norfolk St was mauled by Baylor 85-49. Will I ever get over The Sovereign State of Norfolk beating 30-4 Mizzou? It’s been ten years since 2012, and given how happy I am today to see this beating administered by Baylor, I don’t see a clear path to forgiveness in the near future. So long Spartans. Georgia St vs Gonzaga in a 16/1. Holy smokes this one was tied 54-54 with just 13:00 remaining, but foul trouble and injury drained the Panthers. Drew Timme became unstoppable and Chet Holmgren did all the dirty work so the Bulldogs could pull away 85-63. Texas Southern crushed by Kansas 83-56. UMBC stands alone, at least for one more day.
Elsewhere, North Carolina demolished Marquette and St Mary’s creamed Indiana. Both were moderate favorites but really put the hammer down. UConn fell to New Mexico St (NBK Class of 1992).
Keegan Murray and Iowa were eliminated on Thursday, in a 5/12 upset to Richmond (NBK Class of 1988). All the “sweet-shooting wing” buzz around NBA prospects seems to be focused on whether Jabari Smith will go ahead of Holmgren, but I like Murray. Certainly some of that preference stems from The Murray Bros experience echoing the too-brief-and-weird-but fun Porter Bros era at Mizzou in the early Cuonzo Martin years. Good times.
Jamaree Bouyea did what he could to keep San Francisco‘s Sweet Sixteen hopes alive on Thursday night, driving, dishing, and draining some looooong threes, garnering KenPom Game MVP ($) honors in the losing effort. Justice Hill and his severe leg cramps and the rest of the Murray St Racers have a couple of days to recover and prepare for suprising Saint Peter’s.
His team advanced, and he too was KenPom Game MVP ($), but we fear we may be saying goodbye to Ryan Kalkenbrenner of Creighton. In the chaos of the Bluejays late charge to catch San Diego St, he crumbled in the backcourt with what looked like a major knee injury.
Farewell for sure to Oscar Tshiebwe, likely Player of the Year and Kentucky’s KenPom Game MVP ($) for Thursday. The Big O heads to the NBA after putting up 30 points and 16 rebounds in the Cats loss to NBK hopeful Saint Peter’s.
FRIDAY Here is today’s action in the NBK. Will we get more than one graduate from this year’s group? #3 TCU (50%) vs Seton Hall – 8:57 PM CDT on truTV #4 Colgate (22%) vs Wisconsin – 8:50 PM CDT on TBS #5 Cal St Fullerton (10%) vs Duke – 6:10 PM CDT on CBS #6 Delaware (9%) vs Villanova – 1:45 PM CDT on CBS #7 Jacksonville St (8%) vs Auburn – 11:40 AM CDT on truTV #8 Montana St (8%) vs Texas Tech – 12:45 PM CDT on TNT #9 Yale (12%) vs Purdue – 1 PM CDT on TBS #10 Wright St (5%) vs Arizona – 6:27 PM on truTV
NBK Rankings — based on best-to-worst Sweet Sixteen Odds — after the first day of the Round of 64 aka First Round. KenPom rankings through Thursday 3/17/2022. Sweet Sixteen Path assumes better-seed wins when projecting any TBD future matchups (e.g. Wright St vs Seton Hall in round two). Win Probabilities are calculated using KenPom Adjusted Offensive & Defensive Efficiency ratings.
SATURDAY We began the tournament with 23 NBK hopefuls, and the First Four whittled that down to 20. After day one of round one, only 10 remain. These NBK rankings and game odds will change and be recalculated again Saturday morning, based on Friday’s results. Murray St (78%) vs Saint Peter’s (22%) for a berth in the Sweet Sixteen, the first in either’s history, and graduation from the list of the Never Been Kissed forever. We’ll have to fire up the NBK supercomputer and go through the annals to see if we’ve ever had anyone with a 78% chance of making it.
In the second half of the First Four on Wednesday, Rutgers and Notre Dame battled in the game of the tournament thus far, taking it to double-overtime and past midnight before the luck of the Irish prevailed on St Patrick’s Day 89-87. This game was one of the more exciting and tension-filled of the entire campaign, per KenPom ($):
KenPom game flow ($) measures for First Four matchup of Rutgers-Notre Dame, a 2-OT win for the Irish on St Patrick’s Day 2022.
Cold comfort for the Scarlet Knights, however, as they will be expected to return to the Never Been Kissed (NBK) again next year, seeking their first Sweet Sixteen appearance since the field was expanded to 64 teams back in 1985.
The first game of the night was not as thrilling, as Wright St ran off an early 12-2 streak to get out in front of fellow NBKer and 16-seed (Erick) Bryant. The best the Bulldogs could do from there was briefly cutting the lead to five in the second half, and the Raiders maintained a safe social distance on their way to a 93-82 victory and a date with 1-seed Arizona on Friday. This matchup was not nearly as exciting nor tense:
KenPom game flow ($) measures for relative-snoozer First Four matchup of Wright St 93, Bryant 82.
Outside of that action, only slight movement in the rest of the NBK. The rankings are set going into the Round of 64 aka First Round.
THURSDAY Today’s action for teams seeking their first ever — since 1985 — Sweet Sixteen appearance. Best of luck to these schools and to all your brackets, be they chalky or bold. The NBK is guaranteed to have at least one school in the Round of 32, as our top two squads square off in round one. San Francisco is a slight favorite vs red-hot Murray St. Mountain West reps Colorado St and Boise St are just about a coin-toss against Michigan and Memphis, respectively.
#1 San Francisco (56%) vs #2 Murray St (44%) #3 Colorado St (50%) vs Michigan #5 Vermont (33%) vs Arkansas #6 South Dakota St (42%) vs Providence #7 Boise St (51%) vs Memphis #10 Saint Peter’s (9%) vs Kentucky #14 Longwood (7%) vs Tennessee #16 Akron (9%) vs UCLA #17 Norfolk St (6%) vs Baylor #19 Georgia St (4%) vs Gonzaga #20 Texas Southern (6%) vs Kansas
FRIDAY Looking ahead to Friday’s action in the NBK. These NBK rankings and game odds will change and be recalculated again Friday morning, based on Thursday’s results. #4 TCU (50%) vs Seton Hall #8 Colgate (22%) vs Wisconsin #9 Cal St Fullerton (10%) vs Duke #11 Delaware (9%) vs Villanova #12 Jacksonville St (8%) vs Auburn #13 Montana St (8%) vs Texas Tech #15 Yale (12%) vs Purdue #18 Wright St (5%) vs Arizona
NBK Rankings after the First Four, based on Sweet Sixteen Odds. KenPom rankings through Wednesday 3/16/2022. Sweet Sixteen Path assumes better-seed wins, and Win Probabilities are calculated based on KenPom Adjusted Offensive & Defensive Efficiency ratings.
We are underway with the 2022 NCAA Men’s Basketball tournament! The First Four tipped off on Tuesday night, with very minor NBK implications. In the opener, Texas Southern shrugged off a sluggish first half to outlast Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 76-67. The Tigers take on kansas on Thursday. In the night-cap, Indiana (with 10 Sweet Sixteens since 1985 and thus NBK-ineligible) beat Wyoming (NBK Graduating Class of 1987) 66-58. IU’s Trayce Jackson-Davis was really impressive at both ends in that one.
Two more games tonight, first with Wright St and Bryant squaring off for their tournament lives. Then Rutgers battles Notre Dame (4 Sweet Sixteens since 1985) in game two.
NBK Rankings midway through the First Four, based on Sweet Sixteen Odds. KenPom rankings through Tuesday 3/15/2022. Sweet Sixteen Path assumes better-seed wins, and Win Probabilities are calculated based on KenPom Adjusted Offensive & Defensive Efficiency ratings.
