Basketball is back! Saint Louis University men’s basketball has been shutdown for what has seemed like an eternity, last playing UMKC on December 23rd before shutting down due to COVID-19 test results, contact tracing, and more of the same. The absentee Bills have remained relevant in the hearts and minds of AP voters and come into tonight’s game ranked 22nd on the strength of their 7-1 non-conference performance. While SLU was away, the Dayton Flyers did play to the tune of seven (!) conference games. A nice OT win for the Flyers over Davidson has been more than offset by bad losses at Fordham and home to LaSalle. Last time out they were smoked by VCU 66-43 to drop to 8-4 overall, 4-3 in conference, and #85 in the KenPom.

Dayton features one of the better guard combos in the Atlantic 10 in seniors Jalen Crutcher (6’1″) and Ibi Watson (6’5″) and are balanced with a so-so offense (#79 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency per KenPom.com) and a ho-hum defense (#95 in Adj Def Eff per KP LOL). Where the Flyers REALLY excel is in the ultra-strange category of “Defensive Free Throw %”. Dayton leads the country at 60.7% per KenPom.com.

“Hold the phone, What’s a Billiken, I thought free throws were undefended.” You are correct in that statement, but holding opponents to a low FT % does appear to be a skill coached under Anthony Grant. The Flyers have improved in this category each year since Archie Miller left for Indiana:

• 2017-18 71.5% #192
• 2018-19 70.5% #161
• 2019-20 64.4% #5
• 2020-21 60.7% #1 (thru Sat 1/23)

Generally this means they don’t foul guards and they do foul bigs, a very vulnerable spot for SLU with Hasahn French laying bricks (1-7 this year and only about 33% for his career). Goodwin has been a sub-standard free throw shooter but this year is up to 71%.

Chase Johnson is the Dayton equivalent of SLU’s Eliot Welmer – he’s left the Flyer program after five games this season due to injury concerns, and has only played 19 games total between Florida and Dayton over four years. He retains at least one year of eligibility so we’ll wish him well and see if he resurfaces next year.

The two places where Dayton appears most vulnerable look like areas that SLU can exploit. Dayton turns the ball over quite a bit (#308 in Turnover % per KenPom.com) and gives up quite a few offensive rebounds (#283 in keeping opponents off the Offensive glass). Let’s count SLU free throw possessions as turnovers committed, and SLU offensive rebounds as turnovers forced, and see if the Billikens can win the adjusted amalgamated TO battle (AATOB) and the game to take a commanding lead in the Atlantic 10 at 1-0 🙂

References

Data from Basketball Reference and Ken Pomeroy

Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html

Plot format by Aaron Baggett: https://baseballwithr.wordpress.com/2015/02/17/conceptualizing-the-mlb-strike-zone-using-pitchfx-data/

Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy: http://kenpom.com/

Inspiration from Rock M Nation: http://www.rockmnation.com/missouri-tigers-basketball

With Saint Louis University on continued COVID-19 hiatus, we take a look at Missouri @ Mississipi St.

Mizzou hits the road to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs tonight 1/5, with both teams 1-1 in the SEC, each having opened up conference play with a Home loss and a Road win. With Mizzou #40 and MSU #75 in the KenPom ratings, this game is just about dead even by the math.

Like the last two Mizzou opponents Tennessee and Arkansas, Mississippi St is very good on the offensive boards (#8). The Tigers held their own with the Vols but were absolutely creamed by the Hogs on their offensive glass. So maybe that doesn’t matter. Shrug emoji.

The Bulldogs are young and tall (#299 in Experience and #6 in Average Height) and went 2-OT earlier this week with similarly configured Kentucky (#339 in Experience, # 5 Average Height).

The Bulldogs feature three high-volume three-point shooters in sophomore D.J. Stewart Jr. (44% from three), sophomore Iverson Molinar (50%) off the bench, and redshirt senior Jalen Johnson (40%). Readers of this space will remember Johnson from his two years with Saint Louis University. He sat out a transfer year before running with Louisiana Lafayette last year. The Baton Rouge native was more of a mid-range guy with SLU, then handled the ball a lot last year for the Rajun Cajuns (to not-so-great effect); he has broken into the MSU starting lineup of late as a 3-and-D specialist.

Mizzou continues to rely heavily on the driving and foulability of Xavier Pinson, as well as Tilmon and Mitchell Smith’s abilities to battle down low. The Tigers are rated very highly in both the NET and the human polls, though KenPom is not as impressed. Sam Snelling of Rock M Nation pointed out that pre-season expectations and last year’s results are dragging down Mizzou to this point. His reasoning is sound. This feels like the kind of game a cohesive veteran team wins. Don’t help off the shooters and secure the defensive boards, Pinson makes ten free throws and it’s a happy flight home.

As I prepared for this post Saint Louis University announced that the men’s basketball program is on pause for two weeks following positive COVID-19 tests in the program Dec 28th. And tonight’s scheduled conference opener vs Duquesne is postponed. Here’s what I would have said about it…

SLU opens Atlantic 10 play tonight at home vs Duquesne. The Dukes are just getting re-started this year, going 1-1 in late November early December before shutting down for most of Dec. Michael Hughes, Marcus Weathers, and Tavian Dunn-Martin are the seniors and take most of the shots. Sincere Carry runs the offense in all earnestness and serves as another guy who gets to the line at a high rate — the Dukes are #7 in the country in FTA/FGA per Kenpom.com. The Dukes lead the country in the their short season in defensive FT%, which likely means SLUs bigs will be wearing a path to the stripe.

From the Bills perspective, SLU shook off a post-Minnesota hangover in time to beat UMKC last Wednesday night. SLU controlled the boards and turned the Roos over 14 times to overcome a poor FT-shooting night — one of the few so far this season, after stinking it up from the line all last year.

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Since SLU vs Duquesne is off, let’s take a look at the conference opener for my other favorite team. Mizzou takes on Tennessee in a battle of early favorites for the SEC crown. Like Duquesne above, Tennessee has a slow start to the season, not playing any November games and now 6-0 in December. The Vols are #8 KenPom and #7 in the human poll. Mizzou is hugely overrated, coming in at just #40 KenPom but #12 by the humans.

Tennessee is very good on the Offensive Boards, both acquiring and preventing (#13 both on KenPom), and has a number of shot blockers (#7 KenPom). They play slow and Mizzou is not much of a running team either, so expect this to be a half-court slugfest.

To say Jaden Springer is off to a good start is to significantly undersell the contributions of the 6’4″ freshman thus far. He’s shooting it at a .529/.667/.750 while blocking shots and getting to the line at a high rate. All off the bench. Victor Bailey Jr. has been a nice addition as well, as the Oregon 6’4″ junior transfer has shot it well at a high usage rate. I’m expecting we will see a lot of Dru Smith on Bailey and Springer. John Fulkerson is back for a fifth year, and his five turnovers kept Mizzou within shouting distance in last year’s game. We’ll see if Tilmon or Mitchell Smith can force more. EJ Anosike is a grad transfer from Sacred Heart and a good rebounder, and Keon Johnson is the big freshman guard leading the bench mob with Springer. So far Johnson has shot is about as well as Yves Pons, so their contributions will come from somewhere other than made shots.

Mizzou really does not have great talent compared to teams of the past, but all of these guys seems to be getting better. And the rise of guys like Xavier Pinson and Parker Braun means that less is required of Kobe Brown (no relation) and Javon Pickett. Team Scrawn for more and better options on offense; Team Brawn to get on the boards and play physical defense.

Premium matchup today as the Billikens travel to Minneapolis to meet the Golden Gophers of Minnesota. The GGs were annihilated by Illinois earlier this week 92-65, and the Bills are coming off a big home win vs NC State 80-69. Per KenPom this is the only “A” game the Bills have on the non-conference schedule, so it’s a big roadie in terms of their at-large resume.

Marcus Carr is their main dude, with a gift for getting to the foul line. He was 9-10 FT vs Illinois, but just 2-10 from the field. Carr compares favorably with Cameron Thomas from LSU, who rang up 25 points vs SLU. It took him 18 shots to get there, however, so maybe the Bills can contain Carr similarly.

Overall, the turnover battle will be one to watch — the Gophs are #21 in lowest offensive steal %, and the Bills are #21 at defensive steal %.

SLUs Demarius Jacobs has emerged as an offensive threat this season. The Swiss army knife is shooting an unsustainable .70/.70/.70 to date. SLU has not needed his offense much to date, though he was instrumental in turning the NC State deficit into a surplus. Should the Gophs tie up Perkins, Goodwin, French or Hargrove, let’s see if Jacobs can continue to supply.

As we assemble this post it looks as though more and more conference tournaments are going to be cancelled outright due to COVID-19. The Ivy League started off by cancelling their tourney; most conferences with tourneys in-flight completed theirs. And many of those that had not started said they would play to a closed audience (family and staff). This situation is changing rapidly. Stay tuned and stay healthy.

Hofstra wins! The Pride advance to the Cavernous Big Dance by virtue of their win over Northeastern on Tuesday night. Joey Brackets has them as a 14-seed.

Colgate loses! The Raiders fell to Boston University on Wednesday night in a tight Patriot League final.

Colorado loses! Upset by arch-rivals California, the Buffaloes are still solidly in the field of 68.

Welcome North Dakota St! The Bison are champions of the Summit League by virtue of their win over North Dakota. They are going dancing and have never made the Sweet Sixteen.

Our NBK update begins with Hofstra, which used an 18-3 run midway through the first half to open up a gulf between themselves and Delaware and pull away Monday night. Joe Biden was unavailable for comment. The Pride move(s) on to the Colonial Athletic Association final on Wednesday night vs Northeastern. Hofstra is a slight favorite at 57% per KenPom.

Wright St. bowed out of the Horizon league tourney and also the NBK rankings with an upset loss to UIC in their first round game. Guessing the Raiders will be making an NIT appearance, but I have lost track of what the selection criteria entails. Stay tuned.

We all await with tooty grins the Colgate matchup with BU on Wednesday.

And though Siena does not play until later in the week, they stayed in the news:

ICYMI: Siena admits NCAA violations under Patsos https://t.co/EZAr2mxh44 via @TimesUnion

— Mark Singelais (@MarkSingelais) March 10, 2020

Perhaps they are no Saints.

Winthrop is IN! Liberty is in too. Not sure what was happening at NBK headquarters this weekend, but somehow we missed out on the demise of South Dakota St. The Jackrabbits fell to Purdue Fort Wayne on Saturday, and the Summit League favorite conch moves to Monday’s winner between North Dakota St. and Oral Roberts. NBK recognition and a trip to the conference tourament final are at stake.

East Tennessee St. held serve over the weekend and takes center stage on ESPN on Monday night as a heavy favorite to beat Wofford and secure the auto-bid.

Colgate is also on the verge of advancing, with only Boston University in their path on Wednesday night. The Molars are a 73% favorite, same as ETSU.

The Big Ten wrapped up their regular season on Sunday, and KenPom posted the Log5 with Rutgers having only a slim chance. Joey Brackets views their at-large position as very safe.

[An earlier version of this post mangled the Summit League semifinal matchup horribly — GR]

It was a great Saturday for the NBK if your name was not Don’t Call Me Mark Furman, but we’ll get to them in due time.

Congratulations to the Utah St. Aggies, who took down mighty San Diego St. with a last second three from the intrepid Sam Merrill and in doing so punched their ticket to the big dance. Belmont got past Murray St. in a thriller to capture the Ohio Valley conference crown. That’s two for the NBK.

Our own SLU Billikens made a power move, pummelling St. Bonaventure to move up in the Atlantic 10 rankings — #3 by KenPom and #4 in final standing — and to #7 in the NBK. The Bills earned a double-bye and a likely rematch with the saggy Bonnies on Friday in Crooklyn.

With most conferences completing their regular season play on Saturday, Ken Pomeroy released the rest of his Log5 projections for next week’s conference tourneys, with only the Big TenElevenFourteen lagging. Of the newest batch, Stephen Freaking Austin at 58.1% has the best odds of getting in via the auto-bid. Most precarious are SLU and NC State, both with long odds of winning the auto-bid and tenuous places on the wrong side (Billikens) and the right side (Wolfpack) of the ever-shifting bubble.

You may be asking “what about the Missouri Valley Conference, aren’t two low-rated teams in the final?” Yes, Bradley vs Valpo seems like an NBK fever dream, but both have already achieved Sweet Sixteenness — the Braves in 2006 and the Crusaders back in 1998 — and are therefore NBK-ineligible.

Wither Furman. The Paladins ran into nemesis Wofford in the conference tournament opener, and just as in their regular meeting the Terriers came out on top. Wofford had entered the Southern Conference tournament on a seven game losing streak. Ugh. I am sure the folks at whatsapaladin.com are crushed about now.

Best of luck to Winthrop in their championship game on Sunday. The tournament field is beginning to take shape.

SLU takes on St. Bonaventure tonight at Chaifetz Arena with something at stake. These teams sit tied for fourth in the Atlantic 10 with identical 11-6 marks in the regular season finale for both. Loser has to play Thursday; winner waits until Friday, where they likely meet again.

SLU has fought their way onto the NBK rankings, and a win today would improve their position greatly to get back to the NCAAs. The Bonnies are very young – #336 in experience – and rely almost exclusively on underclassmen. Osun Osunniyi is a force inside, shooting 62% and blocking shots at a rate that is #17 nationally. Hasahn French is #31 and should be up to the challenge.

This final game is a rematch of last year’s A-10 championship brawl, in which Kyle Lofton was terrorized by defensive maven Javon Bess. Lofton is a year older and Bess has moved on to the G League.

Well, well well. Look who decided to join us in the NBK. None other than the Saint Louis University Billikens! The Bills were the original inspiration for these fake conference standings, though they have been absent from them all year. SLU started the season at #142 and were more DNK than NBK. With Wednesday’s win at George Mason they extend their winning steak to four and move up to #70, squarely on our NBK radar. SLU plays St. Bonaventure today in a battle for the #4 seed and double-bye in the A-10 tournament.

Welcome also to Siena! The MAAC champions started the year at #244 and got off to a 3-4 start in conference play. The Saints turned it around and are riding a nine-game winning streak into the conference tournament.

Utah St. came back to beat Wyoming on Friday night for a spot in the Mountain West final against prohibitive favorite San Diego St., a likely #1 seed in the upcoming NCAAs no matter Saturday’s result. KenPom’s puts the Aggies chances of beating the Aztecs at 27%. Joey Brackets views this game as an all-or-nothing for the Aggies. Dig deep, Aggies.

Liberty struggled in both of their wins in the Atlantic Sun tourney, and will look to advance to the big dance when they take on Lipscomb on Sunday. It’s a home game for the Flames and they are an overwhelming favorite at 90%.

Belmont also reached the finals of their conference tournament, and will take on Murray St. on Saturday for Ohio Valley supremacy and the auto-bid. This one shapes up to be a dog fight, as the Bruins are only a 58% favorite over the Racers.

That lovable redhead Winthrop takes the prize this week for having the highest odds of advancing automatically. The Eagles take to their home floor on Sunday against surprising Hampton with a Big South title and big dance ticket on the line. KenPom puts their odds of winning at 91%.

Colgate won their opener in the Patriot League tourney, and are looking minty fresh going into the semifinal on Sunday. Wright St. also advanced to their semifinal, Monday night vs UIC.

North Texas stumbled this week, losing at Charlotte. They already had the CUSA title wrapped up and had little to gain.