SLU secured the Essai You Championship of 2014-15 with a 67-61 win over SIUE at Chaifetz Arena.  The Billikens moved to 6-4 in this season of discovery.

Lineups

Starters:

• Austin McBroom
• Ash Yacoubou
• Davell Roby
• Malik Yarbrough
• John Manning

Yarbrough had to craft up an intro line handshake routine very quickly, as he started for the first time in his career.  Yarbs earned the honor with a 15-point, 9-rebound, 23.3 AdjGS performance last time out in the loss to South Dakota St.

Man, enough of that stuff.   Starting is for high school(TM).  Who played the most minutes?

1. Yacoubou, Mike Crawford (25)
2. McBroom, Manning (23)
3. Roby (19)

Though the starters got a large share of minutes, this was a more even distribution of minutes than last game’s anomaly.  Low twenties for some, double-digits for eleven of twelve.  Jolly drew short straw with only six minutes logged, complicated by his three fouls.

The front court was downright regimented.  Billiken Big Man Math came out to:

• Manning (23) + Gillmann (11) + Jolly (6) = 40 minutes
• Yarbrough (15) + Lancona (11) + Agbeko (14) = 40 minutes

Neato.

The backcourt combinations were a bit more dynamic, as The Safecracker continued to twist the knobs and listen for clicks.

SLU 67, SIUE 61

SLU Player Stats

(Definitions at bottom of post)

• Very efficient game from McBroom, with production well beyond his points and a clean sheet:  0 TO, 0 PF.  Austin feasts on the lower levels of the Land of Lincoln, as he put up a 26.9 AdjGS vs SIUC in Game One.
• Manning shrugged off a string of sub-par performances to stuff the stats and stay on the floor for extended minutes (at SLU this year, 23 qualifies as “extended minutes”)
• Perfect shooting night for Reynolds
• Lancona and Manning with three assists each is unusual.  Also unusual that Gillmann nor Lancona attempted a three, and Yacoubou only shot one from deep.  I suspect this is a reaction to an earful of Identity and Toughness discussions since SD State.
• Crawford got an extended look but scuffled with a pair of turnovers and as many fouls
• I get the sense Davell Roby’s contributions do not show in either traditional counting stats, nor what passes for advanced analytics at the NCAA level.  SIUE’s Rozell Nunn (also 6’4″) put up a 40 ORtg and generally shot them out of this game.  Roby Effect?  We will have to wait for the SportVU install at Chaifetz to measure it.  For now, we trust Coach Crews is seeing something to warrant the starts and the minutes.

Summary

Good to get a win in a medium leverage game, and wash some stink off.  That it came against one of lowest-rated teams in the country (SIUE rocks a renegade soundsystem at #311) is immaterial.  The Billikens are on a Quest for Meaningful Minutes, and they found an unexpected stash of them in Game Ten.

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AdjGS:  variation on the Game Score metric created by John Hollinger, detailed here.  Hollinger’s original formula is Adjusted to reallocate the points in the game by ratio of the player’s overall impact.  Credit to the team at Rock M Nation for this improvement.

True Shooting %:  Per Basketball Reference, true shooting percentage is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.

This is a rebuilding year.

There.  I said it.  Did not want to say it.  Did not want to even think it.  But here we are.   There are programs across the country that do not have to subject themselves to rebuilding years, that can reload and for whom a down year is a difficult 8/9 game and a longshot second round game against the 1 seed.

The SLU basketball program has not reached this level.  When five senior starters depart, the Billikens do not have nine McDonald’s All-Americans at the ready (hello Kentucky), nor do we have a Statue of Liberty torch out for seven or eight transfers (looking at you Iowa St).  Turnover means freshmen, and freshmen need time.

If the Game Nine result took us out of Drive and into Neutral, this tweet put us in full Rebuild.

Transcript: #SLU HC Jim Crews on status of Grandy Glaze. Will have more from today’s media sesh on @InsideSTL later. pic.twitter.com/YiGUKmN1Xh

— Brian Hank Haenchen (@Brian_Haenchen) December 12, 2014

Lineups

In this space, we continue to explore the various ways Jim Crews assembles, dissembles and tries to make some semblance of his basketball team.

Starters:  McBroom, Yacoubou, Roby, Agbeko, Manning

I find it interesting that the Starting Lineup has been relatively stable and consistent, when compared with the minutes allocations overall.  McBroom and Yacoubou have likely played the most Meaningful Minutes of anyone on the roster, and could reasonably form a good backcourt next year.  Manning is the tallest guy, a primary backup last year, and is a Senior.

Minutes Leaders (non-starters in Bold):

1. McBroom (31)
2.  Yacoubou (30)
3. Austin Gillmann, Roby (25)
4. Yarbrough (23)

The Safecracker seems to be tiring a bit of the tinkering and twisting and turning.  The starters got extended run.  All twelve played but five guys went under double-figure minutes for the first time all season.

SLU Player Stats

(Definitions at bottom of post)

• You can see Yarbrough’s terrific game was almost completely offset by the counter-weight of Jolly, Bartley and Reynolds.  These are the types of rough edges smoothed out over weeks and years.
• I know it is hard to add from the table above but it comes to 2 for 19 from three.  You can’t even beat South Dakota Tech shooting 2 for 19 from three.

Summary

SLU suffers a second home loss to a team well outside the Top 100, as Experience and Poise somehow trump Horrific Outside Shooting.  Grandy Glaze is likely out for the year, which after this game actually qualifies as very, very good news.  Here’s to learning and growing and honest reflection, and to saying this next year:  the Grandy Man can cuz he mixes it with joy and makes the world taste good (makes the world taste good).

—————————————————————————–

AdjGS:  variation on the Game Score metric created by John Hollinger, detailed here.  Hollinger’s original formula is Adjusted to reallocate the points in the game by ratio of the player’s overall impact.  Credit to the team at Rock M Nation for this improvement.

Wichita St hit the first bucket and never trailed, returning to form with an 81-52 win over our SLU Billikens.  With the loss, SLU falls to 3-1 in Missouri Valley Conference play.

Billikens trail Wichita State 16-10 with 11:49 remaining in the first. Yarbrough, Jolly with 3s to keep Bills close.

— SLU Men’s Basketball (@SaintLouisMBB) December 6, 2014

 That qualified as the high point of the night.  Oh wait, no this did.

For the second time in the last week a SLU player has a shoe fly off and across the court. This time Roby.

— stu durando (@studurando) December 6, 2014 

Turns out shoe fly don’t bother Ron Baker; the Shockers shot the lights out and rolled in the deep.

Lineups

Here we try to get a sense of what Jim “Safecracker” Crews thinks of the team by the way he hands out the minutes.  And even though Starting Is For High School (TM), we believe it says something.

Starters:

McBroom, Yacoubou, Roby, Agbeko, Manning

Minutes Leaders:

1. Yarbrough, Manning (24)
2. Roby, Bartley (23)
3. Reynolds (22)

In a game featuring zero leverage, it is impossible to gauge what truly works and what doesn’t, who is earning time or slipping.  It just gives the guys a chance to get out and run with a Top 10 team….or at least their backups.

SLU Player Stats

(Definitions at bottom of post)

• The top six contributors by AdjGS were freshmen.  Again, lack of meaningful time in the game means these minutes are primarily an investment into the future of the program.
• Limited action for McBroom.  Guessing Crews already has an idea of what he has in McBroom and did not feel the need to see more.  His powder stays mostly dry.
• SLU’s freshman centers Gillmann and Jolly combined to hit 2 of 5 three pointers

Wichita St Player Stats

• Stat-stuffing performance from Ron Baker
• Wessel was unexpectedly hot from three
• Just as in last year’s game, it was Cotton who proved to be more of the facilitator vs SLU than was Van Vleet
• Greg(g) Marshal(l) may have uncovered another option in big freshman Rauno Nurger, who thrived in the unleveraged freedom
• Tom “Bush” Wamukota has to be one of the best names in Shocker history, though the Zach Brown Band will have something to say about it

Keys to the Game: Revisited

Before the game the WABmaster put together a recipe for how to beat Wichita St.  Let’s see how that turned out:

A Poeltl-like performance from a big.  (I nominate Brent Jolly for this duty.)

Jolly was serviceable but not a force.  Gillmann shot the ball well.  Overall, Wichita St controlled the inside (39-18 rebound advantage, including 11-3 on the offensive glass).

Don’t give Baker an inch behind the line.  He is showing improved range and ability to make threes in tighter quarters.  (I nominate Davell Roby for this duty.)

Baker was 3-4 from deep.

Make Van Vleet shoot (this means you McBroom.  Deny the pass first)

Van Vleet only took three shots.

Get to the line (this means you, Ash, Yarbrough and Agbeko)

• Yacoubou 0 FTs
• Yarbrough 3 FTs
• Agbeko 0 FTs

Play loose and cool and with absolutely nothing to lose (this is an All Play.)

Still no Grandy so the fun quotient was a little low.  Bartley seemed to cut loose and let it all hang out.

Summary

This is the kind of blowout that is not useful to forget and shrug off, but instead one that should be carried forward for the rest of this season and beyond.  There is no shame in losing to a Top 10 team on the road, getting a glimpse into what they do well and consistently, how they work and talk and adapt, and working on emulating it.

In 2011, SLU lost at Duke 84-47 early in what proved to be a 12-19 season.  In that game, freshman Dwayne Evans, Mike McCall Jr, Rob Loe, and Jordair Jett performed the bulk of the mop up duty.  While we hope for better results from this year’s team, the investment in the program’s future is paramount.

—————————————————————————–

AdjGS:  variation on the Game Score metric created by John Hollinger, detailed here.  Hollinger’s original formula is Adjusted to reallocate the points in the game by ratio of the player’s overall impact.  Credit to the team at Rock M Nation for this improvement.

If a Double-Double Falls in the Forest

SLU beat Rockhurst 80-48 in a game that may or may not have actually happened.  The game was considered an exhibition (by Rockhurst oddly enough).  On KenPom.com the team stats count but the player stats do not.  The RPI also says “keep it moving, nothing to see here”.

The game was part of the Jesuit Basketball Spotlight, which is a real thing.   But Rockhurst (Division II) is not even a member of the Jesuit Basketball Conference (JesCon), which is a thing I made up.  “People” numbering 5,290 attended something.  Beverages may or may not have been served.  Really strange.

Stu was there and saw some quality shuffling and flopping.

SLU has now taken six charges by my unofficial count and that is Jim Crews’ goal … or at least it was for Saturday’s game against Bradley.

— stu durando (@studurando) December 3, 2014

It’s 2014 and we still don’t have Charges Drawn and Fouls Drawn available, outside of poor Stu and his clicker.  Somewhere, Cody Ellis is shaking his royal blue head sadly.

Lineups

In this space, we try to learn what SLU Coach “Safecracker” Jim Crews thinks of his team by the minutes he is dolling out, trying all possible combinations and listening for that click.  Starting Is For High School (TM), but we look at starters vs minutes leaders anyway.

Starters:

• Austin McBroom
• Ash Yacoubou
• Marcus Bartley
• Reggie Agbeko
• Brett Jolly

Same starting five as last time out.  Nothing new or remarkable.

Minutes Leaders (non-starters in Bold):

1. Milik Yarbrough (26)
2. Miles Reynolds (25)
3. Yacoubou (22)
4. tie – Davell Roby, Austin Gillmann, and McBroom (18)

Once again, twelve played.  Not all twelve reached double-digit minutes; Lancona (8) and Manning (7) lagged.  As in the Mississippi St game which we agreed never to talk about again, this game featured copious amounts of garbage time.   So this distribution could either mean A Return to Tinkering With Twelve, or maybe just I Was Going to Play Nine But It Got Out of Hand.

Either way, we are still rocking the #2 spot in Bench Minutes (47.5%), trailing only the #1 Kentucky Juggercats (a nearly perfectly weird 49.0%).

SLU Player Stats

(Definitions at bottom of post)

• Ash Yacoubou logged the first double-double of the year (15 pts, 10 reb)
• Reynolds and Yarbrough still out-produced him by the AdjGS measure.  Well done by Freshmen both slim and stout.
• Of the big guys, it is looking like Gillmann may be the only one with three-point making range.  We will remember Rob Loe as long range bombing big man, but he shot only 31% from three his last two years, and 33% for his career.  Gillmann so far is 3-5 and looks like those numbers are within reach.
• Only two detractors with negative AdjGS — Manning and Jolly — and 21 total minutes of backslide.  The TAMU-CC game also featured only two players with negative AdjGS, but the covered a fateful 38 player-minutes.

Summary

The SLU Billikens played one exhibition game before the season at home against SIU-E, then snuck in a rumored win in a secret scrimmage at Memphis, who may be falling apart completely. This Rockhurst game served as yet a third flavor of practice game, allowing everyone to run around loosey goosey and clear their heads going into the biggest challenge of the season. Saturday at #8 Wichita St.

—————————————————————————–

AdjGS:  variation on the Game Score metric created by John Hollinger, detailed here.  Hollinger’s original formula is Adjusted to reallocate the points in the game by ratio of the player’s overall impact.  Credit to the team at Rock M Nation for this improvement.

SLU hit some big threes in the final minute and shot well throughout, beating Bradley 60-57 in the consolation game of the Corpus Christi Coastal Classic holiday tournament.  The Billikens improve to 2-0 in Missouri Valley Conference play 🙂

Lineups

Starters:

• Austin McBroom
• Ash Yacoubou
• Marcus Bartley
• Reggie Agbeko
• Brent Jolly

Although Crews always downplays the starting lineup, he clearly now wants to find a combination that won’t dig an early hole.

— stu durando (@studurando) November 29, 2014

In the wake of the shellacking SLU took Friday, changes were inevitable.  And if the goal was staying out of an early hole, it was a success.  SLU never led in the first half, but was within four at 22-18 thirteen minutes in.  Compare that to the same point one day prior  — down 33-18 to Mississippi St.

Changes to the starting lineup have been a constant.  Since Starting Is For High School (TM), the intrigue is in overall minutes.  And this was the biggest departure from the first five.

Minutes Leaders (non-starters in Bold):

• McBroom (35)
• Jolly (32)
• Agbeko (26)
• Yacoubou (23)
• Yarbrough (23)
• Bartley (22)

Going into this game, SLU was #2 in the country in Bench Minutes, trailing only #1 Kentucky and far ahead the rest of the country.  As has been well-discussed, Kentucky is employing a Two Platoon system with two complete and separate five-man lineups swapping in and out wholesale.

SLU had arrived at #2 by employing a Safecracker approach, as Coach Jim Crews twisted the dial back-and-forth looking for combinations that would click.  Twelve guys playing double-digit minutes each. As Stu noted late, this Game Six was different:

Unless something changes in the last 3:54, three players who started yesterday’s game for SLU will not see action today.

— stu durando (@studurando) November 29, 2014

We have not seen the last of Davell Roby, Tanner Lancona, and John Manning, but with 11 starts among them thus far it was certainly noteworthy that all three were DNP-CD.

SLU Player Stats

(Definitions at bottom of post)

• McBroom was dominant, accounting for 66% of the overall production.  He made his bid for all-tournament with a fantastic shooting performance and a solid floor game.
• Yarbrough was the Minutes Leader among the non-starters, and made the most of his 23 minutes, perfect from the field and adding four rebounds
• Jolly lightened the holiday season with a strong performance, the first time this season someone other than McBroom logged more than 30 minutes (32)
• Career high eight points for Agbeko to go with four rebounds
• With our first taste of a conventional distribution of minutes came a conventional problem: foul trouble (Bartley fouled out)
• When your top guy goes for 40+ AdjGS, you can afford a few negative performances.  Call the 61 minutes shared among Yacoubou, Reynolds and Bartley and investment in the future.

Summary

This game was different from the first five.  Coach Crews played only 9 guys, and rode the starters most of the way.  We may find out this was a one-game correction after getting blown out by Mississippi St the day before, or the Safecracker might have decided a dozen moving gears is three too many.  With Grandy Glaze yet to play this season, there will be a myriad more combinations to try out.

—————————————————————————–

AdjGS:  variation on the Game Score metric created by John Hollinger, detailed here.  Hollinger’s original formula is Adjusted to reallocate the points in the game by ratio of the player’s overall impact.  Credit to the team at Rock M Nation for this improvement.

DNP-CD:  stands for “did not play – coach’s decision”.  A healthy, available player who sat out because the coach went with other players, not due to injury, suspension, etc.

In front of a small crowd, SLU improved to 3-1 with a 57-54 victory over one of the lowest-rated teams in the country.  The Billikens were in control most of the way but let NC A&T hang around long enough to make their move midway through the second half.

Miles Reynolds rebounded from a shot to the face to thoroughly controlled the action, bulling his way to the line time and time again (14-18 FT).  McBroom carried the team in Game One, and Reynolds did all that and more in Game Four.

Lineups

In this space we take a look at the Starters, even though Starting Is For High School (TM), and the Minutes Leaders as we try to get some insight as to how Coach Jim “Safecracker” Crews sees this team.

Starters:

• Austin McBroom
• Ash Yacoubou
• Davell Roby
• Reggie Agbeko
• Austin Gillmann

First start of the year for Gillmann, as the Safecracker turns the dial on bigs, listening.  Agbecko was in the Grandy Glaze role of “Starter but…” as he was limited to 11 minutes.

Minutes Leaders (non-starters in Bold):

1. McBroom (29)
2. Yacoubou (25)
3. Lancona (23)
4. Reynolds (21)
5. tie-Manning (17) & Crawford (17)

Overall, 10 of 12 guys played double-digit minutes.  Lancona and Manning, the Game One starters, garnered extra minutes with defense, and Reynolds took command.

SLU Player Stats

(Definitions at bottom of post)

• Miles Reynolds had the strongest game of any Billiken this year.  His production accounted for over half that of the other 11 guys — offsetting five guys in the negative — and AdjGS does not even take into account Fouls Drawn.   He carried SLU to victory.
•  McBroom returned to form, suggesting he has overcome the wrist injury from Game One
• Manning’s 3 blocks stand out on the defensive side, with 2 big ones in the closing minutes.  He did not start for the first time this year, but he finished very strong.  Also standing out are Lancona and Reynolds each with 3 steals.
• Agbeko and Jolly combined for 7 rebounds in 20 minutes, with Reggie’s two turnovers dragging down his GS.   Turnovers were a problems for Yacoubou and Bradley as well.
• Yacoubou’s 5 rebounds and 2 assists only partially offset a poor shooting night.

Summary

This squad will be hard-pressed to improve on last year’s defense, but two areas where the fruit hangs low are Block % (last year ranked #324 overall) and Steal % (#305).   Reynolds, Reynolds, and more Reynolds.   His best is quite good.

—————————————————————————–

AdjGS:  variation on the Game Score metric created by John Hollinger, detailed here.  Hollinger’s original formula is Adjusted to reallocate the points in the game by ratio of the player’s overall impact.  Credit to the team at Rock M Nation for this improvement.

The undersized but experienced Islanders of Texas A&M-Corpus Christi upset the Billikens at home in Game Three of the season for both schools.  SLU falls to 2-1.  TAMU-CC improves to 2-1.

The Lineups

The Safecracker continued turning and twisting and listening, trying to find the right combination and hear that click.

Starters:

• Austin McBroom
• Ash Yacoubou
• Davell Roby
• Reggie Agbeko
• John Manning

Straight swap of Agbeko in for Lancona at the 4 spot.   Both saw action but neither finished among the leaders in minutes played.

Minutes Leaders (non-starters in Bold):

1. Yacoubou (29)
2. McBroom (28)
3. Roby (26)
4. Marcus Bartley (20)
5. Brett Jolly (18)

Bartley and Jolly both had strong games this week in the road win at Indiana St.  Perhaps their added minutes were a reward for that effort.

The Turning Point

With 5 minutes left there was an 88% probability of a SLU win, but we defied the odds and lost.   Three straight missed free throws mixed with two turnovers and a game-long lead evaporated in two minutes.  You can see the yellow cliff dive.

SLU Player Stats

• Strong game from Roby, hitting two threes, hitting the boards and dishing out a few assists.  His best game of the three so far.
• Lancona came off the bench for the first time this year, and responded with his most productive game
• Agbeko returned to the starting lineup (even though Starting Is For High School(TM)) but did not leave a major mark.  Got on the glass and struggled from the line.
• Limited minutes for Gillmann (5) & Crawford (8), the first time two guys were under ten minutes in a game.
• McBroom missed all three of his 3s and was not a major factor in his 28 minutes.  Could be lingering effects from the hard fall in Game One.
• Manning, Bartley and Jolly played big minutes (by SLU standards) and mustered 3 Rebounds, 3 Turnovers and 6 Fouls among them.

Summary

There was bound to be a bump in the road to maturity.  A team of upperclassmen came and took our lunch money.  One major ingredient missing in freshmen and players growing into their minutes is Poise.  It does not grow in a linear fashion but limps and soars and sputters along until you just have it.  The TAMU-CC guys had it; we are still working to get it.