I bite my tongue and dry my tears
You know the day is done, but not the years
Twenty Six lives,
Will flowers ever grow here? — Saints of Valory

In Game Twenty-six the reeling and road-weary Billikens (#251 KenPom.com) visited #26 VCU.  The first game between these two was a Friday-night thriller worthy of Prime Time and National Television, won by the Rams on a furious drive by likely A-10 Player of the Year Traveon Graham.

Graham sat out the last 16 minutes of this edition as VCU cruised to the 74-54 win, keeping pace with Dayton, Rhody and UMass at the top of the conference.

Jerry Falwell Scoreboard

SLU went down early 10-2, then 27-17 and did not put up much of a fight.  SLU falls to 10-16 overall, 2-11 in the Atlantic 10 conference, and 5-6 in the Jerry Falwell.   The breaks are now officially beating the boys on our quest for a moral majority this season.

Lineups

Starters:

• Miles Reynolds (1st start this season)
• Davell Roby (24)
• Ash Yacoubou (25)
• Milik Yarbrough (17)
• John Manning (21)

Miles Reynolds gets his first start at VCU and Jim Crews completes the task of getting every SLU player at least one start.

— stu durando (@studurando) February 18, 2015

Well done, Safecracker.  Reynolds has shown an incredible ability to get to the foul line, and this strength bears exploring against an over-aggressive Havoc defense. Minutes Distribution (non-starters in Bold):

1. Roby (27)
2. Yarbrough (24)
3. Yacoubou (21)
4. Marcus Bartley (21)
5. Mike Crawford (21)
6. Austin Gillmann (19)
7. Reynolds (17)
8. Austin McBroom (12)
9. Reggie Agbeko (12)
10. Tanner Lancona (11)
11. Brett Jolly (8)
12. Manning (7)

Reynolds started, but Bartley got more minutes.  Manning started, did not get in foul trouble, but hardly played.  Twelve guys got to play and see Havoc in its home environs.

Four Factors

The Four Factors were indicative of the margin and lack of drama in this game.   VCUs margin in any of the Four may have tilted a tight game in their favor, but a clear and clean sweep left no doubt.

Leverage

No leverage to be found.  This game was a long-shot before the opening tip, and never heated up.  The featured image at the top of this post really tells you all you need to know.  In it you see a fully developed and highly skilled Man (Traveon Graham) virtually licking his chops against an unsure, untested and lightly mustachioed Boy (Miles Reynolds) experiencing Havoc for the first time.

SLU Player Stats

(Definitions at the bottom of the post)

• Yarbrough broke out of a mini-slump with a solid game, shooting over 50% from the field, pulling down five boards and limiting turnovers and fouls
• And despite earlier comments, Reynolds did a solid job running the point, including his usual outsized effort of getting to the line (6 free throw attempts in 17 mins)
• Bartley’s three-point percentage continues to rise.  After a perfect 3-3 against VCU he is now up to 42.9% on the year, second only to McBroom (45.9%).
• Crawford did more Stability Team work, dishing and fouling with only a few shots
• TANNER LANCONA, FROM THREE…….YES!!!!!!

This has been a horrific shooting year for the Sophomore.  Last season in limited minutes, Lancona shot a respectable 5-14 (35.7%) from three.  That season was on par with Billikens of the recent past such as:

• Tommie Liddell – 2008 – 34.9%
• Tommie Liddell – 2009 – 35.4%
• Mike McCall Jr – 2012 – 34.8%
• Rob Loe – 2012 – 35.1%
• Austin McBroom – 2014 – 35.2%

This year he is 2-24, which comes to 8.3%.  I could not find a similar season-long single-digit percentage slump, save Miles Reynolds 1-15 (6.7%).  Lancona looks like he could bang the boards, he showed last year he could hit some open 3s, but this season has just been a Sophomore Slump.  The geometry of the SLU offense does not work when the 4 man is neither stretching the defense nor pulling down rebounds.

Summary

The Billikens concluded their Farewell Tour, saying goodbye to their back-to-back Atlantic 10 titles and passing the torch along to a new champion.  They did the league a favor by not pinning any bad losses on the top contenders, doing their part to keep five teams NCAA hopes alive — VCU, Dayton, Rhode Island, Davidson and UMass.  It will be an exciting finish….for them.  For us it is a learning experience and just the start of a journey.

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AdjGS:  variation on the Game Score metric created by John Hollinger, detailed here.  Hollinger’s original formula is Adjusted to reallocate the points in the game by ratio of the player’s overall impact.  Credit to the team at Rock M Nation for this improvement.

True Shooting %:  Per Basketball Reference, true shooting percentage is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.

Leverage:  Per Ken Pomeroy, measures how much is at stake on a particular possession.  Leverage is not based on what happened during the possession, but is the range of win probability based on what could have happened.  Learn more here.

FTRate:  Per Ken Pomeroy, free throw rate is calculated by 100*FTA/FGA. This measures a player’s ability to get the line relative to how often he attempts to score.

DNP-CD:  Did Not Play – Coach’s Decision.  Healthy and otherwise eligible player who did not see any action in the game.

There’s twenty-five years
To work out where we’re going
I know summer’s almost over
So before it starts snowing –Saint Etienne

Game Twenty-five was a roady at Rhody.  The Rams kept the heat on our young Bills and moved into a three way tie atop the A-10, joining Dayton and VCU.

Off the bench, Miles Reynolds scored a career-high 21 points. Reynolds’ ability to get to the free throw line is super-natural. For comparison, here are a few notable recent Billikens and their Free Throw Rates:

• Ian Vouyoukas, 2006:  73.4
• Brian Conklin, 2012: 64.4
• Dwayne Evans, 2013: 61.1

Reynolds’ FTRate this season is 154.5.  That is just nuts.  I am turning the WAB supercomputer loose on trying to find anyone even close.

Jerry Falwell Scoreboard

Negativo.  This was not a closely-contested game at any point, as we will see later in the (Lack of) Leverage section.  Positives included getting Crawford a start and Reynolds and Roby’s relentless attacking.  But not enough material for a moral victory.

SLU falls to 10-15 overall, 2-10 in the Atlantic 10, and 5-5 in the Jerry Falwell.

Lineups

Starters:

• Marcus Bartley (13th start this season)
• Davell Roby (23)
• Mike Crawford (1)
• Milik Yarbrough (16)
• John Manning (20)

Yacoubou had started all 24 previous.   The team was not lighting the world on fire, so Crawford gets the nod.

Minutes Distribution (non-starters in Bold):

1. Roby (36)
2. Yarbrough (34)
3. Miles Reynolds (25)
4. Reggie Agbeko (24)
5. Crawford (16)
6. Brett Jolly (16)
7. Bartley (14)
8. Austin Gillmann (14)
9. Manning (10)
10. Ash Yacoubou (7)
11. Tanner Lancona (3)
12. Austin McBroom (1)

Given Yarbrough’s recent struggles, I would not be surprised to see some of the Yarbrough / Manning combo minutes go instead to Agbeko / Gillmann.  They operate best at different points on the floor.

Four Factors

The Billikens fumbled this one away, pressured by the Rams into 21 turnovers.  The Rams has only 10 turnovers.

Leverage

No meaningful minutes to be had in this one.  The Bills started as heavy underdogs, fell behind 14-6 and never got closer than 10 points the rest of the way.

SLU Player Stats

(Definitions at the bottom of the post)

• The Safecracker fired up the Rey Rey machine for another go and he nearly matched his 14-18 FT feast from way back before Thanksgiving with a 13-15.
• Roby also attacked and went a perfect 10-10 from the line, offsetting poor shooting from the field and kicking in 5 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 steals.  Roby has logged at lot of minutes this season and fortunately seems only to be getting stronger.
• Agbeko nearly hit a season high in minutes and contributed 4-5 from the field and 6 rebounds
• Crawford made little of his first start, only taking 3 shots in 16 minutes.  As a shooting threat, he should be able to open up lanes for the attacking guards, and the next stage of offensive evolution for this team will bring the drive-and-kick into play.  Meanwhile, much like Jake Barnett before him, Mike Crawford is going to have to show he can at least slow down his man and funnel on defense.
• So difficult to say if the intention was to feature Yacoubou for extended time off the bench, as he hacked his way to 4 fouls in just 7 minutes.  This was the only game he has not started, and also the only single-digit game for Ash.  Uncharacteristic.

So given all this, what you have seen this year, and where we are going next year and beyond, who do you play?

Summary

SLU’s doldrums coincide with a tour of this year’s contenders to succeed them as Atlantic 10 champions: Dayton, Rhode Island and on to VCU on Tuesday.  The losses continue to mount, and moral victories are not flowing freely either.   Yarbrough seems out of gas, and the #13 defense of the Rams was not going to provide any rejuvenation.

Geometry, meaningful minutes, and league orientation are what we need to maximize in the remaining three weeks.

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AdjGS:  variation on the Game Score metric created by John Hollinger, detailed here.  Hollinger’s original formula is Adjusted to reallocate the points in the game by ratio of the player’s overall impact.  Credit to the team at Rock M Nation for this improvement.

True Shooting %:  Per Basketball Reference, true shooting percentage is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.

Leverage:  Per Ken Pomeroy, measures how much is at stake on a particular possession.  Leverage is not based on what happened during the possession, but is the range of win probability based on what could have happened.  Learn more here.

FTRate:  Per Ken Pomeroy, free throw rate is calculated by 100*FTA/FGA. This measures a player’s ability to get the line relative to how often he attempts to score.

DNP-CD:  Did Not Play – Coach’s Decision.  Healthy and otherwise eligible player who did not see any action in the game.

Twenty four oceans
Twenty four skies
Twenty four failures
Twenty four tries
Twenty four finds me
In twenty-fourth place — Switchfoot

Game Twenty-four on this rebuilding season was a slog, a donnybrook, a slugfest.  SLU (#253 in KenPom.com during this rebuilding season) got down in the mud pit with Dayton (#37) in a late night tilt at Chaifetz Arena.  If you recall last season, the Flyers came into Chaifetz and spoiled the senior night party, sending the tired Billikens to their third straight loss and seemingly ending hopes of the Bills repeating as A-10 champs.

The Bills would rebound with a clutch win at UMass on a clutch drive by Jordair Jett to secure a second straight A-10 title.  And those Flyers would soar as well with an improbable, electric run to the Elite Eight.

Last year’s team won with Offense (#38 KenPom in  AdjO Efficiency).  This year they are woefully undersized due to a pair of early-season suspensions, and horribly thin (#325 in Bench Minutes) but are getting it done with Defense (#23 AdjD Efficiency) and getting to the free throw line (#3 in FTA/FGA).

This was a must-win for the Flyers to keep pace with VCU and Rhode Island at the top of the conference.

Jerry Falwell Scoreboard

Let’s run through a few characteristics of this game:

• Opponent coming off an Elite Eight appearance
• Opponent in contention for an A-10 title
• Opponent headed to the NCAA Tournament
• Late night game on National TV, if you count NBC Sports Network as such
• High leverage through the entire second half

This is the very definition of a Moral Victory.  So in SLUs quest for a moral majority this counts in the W column.  SLU stands 10-14 overall, 2-9 in the Atlantic 10, and 5-4 in the Jerry Falwell.

Lineups

Starters:

• Marcus Bartley (12 starts this season)
• Davell Roby (22)
• Ash Yacoubou (24)
• Milik Yarbrough (15)
• John Manning (19)

Manning back in the starting lineup after a couple games away recoving from concussion-like symptoms.

Minutes Distribution (non-starters in Bold):

1. Yacoubou (34)
2. Bartley (29)
3. Roby (28)
4. Yarbrough (23)
5. Austin Gillmann (19)
6. Manning (16)
7. Mike Crawford (14)
8. Tanner Lancona (10)
9. Austin McBroom (9)
10. Miles Reynolds (8)
11. Reggie Agbeko (6)
12. Brett Jolly (5)

The Minutes skewed much more heavily toward the Starters than most games this year.  Dayton’s resolute insistence on challenging much bigger players — particularly the fearless sophomore Kyle Davis — rendered SLUs huge size advantage mostly useless.

Four Factors

The Billikens did not win any of these categories, but muddied the waters enough to keep three of the Four down to only slight advantage.  The big red bar to the right shows very clearly the method Dayton used to win this game: fearless attack from all angles and all players to win the FT rate battle.

This is such a bold and interesting style for a team that is undersized and short-handed as the Flyers are.  If the calls tilt the wrong way, particularly on the road, foul trouble can handcuff this team more than most.   With just one Senior among their six rotation players — they play about six and a half each game — you can’t call this team Experienced (#221 per KenPom.com).  But the quality of their experience and their coaching shows poise beyond the counting numbers of years and minutes.

We at WAB and the 16×18 Society are looking for these qualities in the Billikens.

Leverage

This game again broke the WAB Supercomputer, with High Leverage off the scale (20:15), including almost the entire second half.  SLU led the first half, withstood a couple of runs by the Flyers, but water drip-drip-dripped and the better team prevailed in the end.

SLU Player Stats

(Definitions at the bottom of the post)

•  Take a look at the top and bottom lines for a moment.  By their cavernous differences in AdjGS (Yacoubou 32.3, Bartley minus 26.7) we would call Yacoubou’s a great game and Bartley’s a complete disaster.  But look closely:  both shot poorly, both had 4 turnovers, both committed 3 fouls.  The real difference was Yacoubou had just enough positive contributions to offset those negatives.  In a High Leverage game with little margin for error, every little thing counts.  So though AdjGS blows positive and negative contributions WAY out of proportion in this case, within the context of this game it seems entirely appropriate and indicative.
• Roby would fit in very well with the Flyers this year.  Heck, he could probably play center for them at 6’4″.
• As Yacoubou vs Bartley is informative, we examine Agbeko vs Jolly.  We suspect Jim “Safecracker” Crews had the intention of using Brett Jolly as his Flyer anti-aircraft missile off the bench.  Jolly instead hacked two quick fouls and committed a turnover.  Meanwhile, Agbeko used his minutes wisely and provided a matchup problem.  In hindsight, we wonder what extended Agbeko minutes could have yielded.
• Yarbrough again struggled as he regresses to his early season numbers

Summary

 If you enjoy high scoring, marksmanship, and getting to bed early, well you really hated this matchup.  But if you are interested in how grit, poise, determination, and teamwork can steal a road win, this year’s Dayton Flyers are the team for you.  SLU did well to sling mud with them, putting Forty good minutes in the bank for the future.

—————————————————————————–————–————–

AdjGS:  variation on the Game Score metric created by John Hollinger, detailed here.  Hollinger’s original formula is Adjusted to reallocate the points in the game by ratio of the player’s overall impact.  Credit to the team at Rock M Nation for this improvement.

True Shooting %:  Per Basketball Reference, true shooting percentage is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.

Leverage:  Per Ken Pomeroy, measures how much is at stake on a particular possession.  Leverage is not based on what happened during the possession, but is the range of win probability based on what could have happened.  Learn more here.

DNP-CD:  Did Not Play – Coach’s Decision.  Healthy and otherwise eligible player who did not see any action in the game.