Today is the day we have all been waiting for: Daylight Saving Time. (I learned from losing HQ the other night that “Savings” is incorrect and officially it is “Saving”).

So maybe we have not all been waiting for DST, but today is also Selection Sunday! Today we find out what the committee thinks is the best 68, and what sort of gerrymandered logic they invented on the spot to assemble this year’s collection.

In this space, we have monitored closely the trials and tribulations of those programs who play Division I men’s college basketball and have never made the big tournament’s second weekend, never been to the Sweet Sixteen, and therefore Never Been Kissed (NBK). We selected 21 teams to follow this year, primarily based on overall KenPom ranking — for multi-bid conferences — and position in their conference for one-bid leagues.

Several favorites bit the dust these past few days. Lafayette tried to take this bull by the reins, but just got redder with bloodstains, losing the Sun Belt final to UT-Arlington.   Former Mizzou forward Jakeenan Gant will not be going to the tournament this year with the Ragin’ Cajuns.  We are ruling them OUT.

Boise St lingered on the edges of the bubble for the past several weeks, but a bad loss to Utah St in the opener of the C-USA tournament sealed the fate of the Blue Turfers.  Broncos are OUT.

Vermont lost in the championship of the America East to Maryland-Baltimore County on a late three by Jarius Lyles.  UMBC goes dancing while the Catamounts wonder what might have been.  OUT.

Middle Tennessee complicated matters for themselves and other bubble teams by losing in their C-USA tourney opener to a terrible Southern Miss team, on the heels of a final regular season loss to Marshall the week prior.  All the good tidings of a 10-game win streak have burst into flames, and the team that all the prognosticators were frothing over as a potential upset pick is now likely not dancing at all.  Blue Raiders are going to be OUT.

St Bonaventure is playing with fire, bowing to Davidson in the Atlantic 10 semifinals.  Their loss was probably just late enough (Saturday eve) and to just good enough of a team (Davidson is #43 KenPom) that their bubble status will remain precarious but secure.  We are calling the Bonnies IN.

The Big Ten tournament was seemingly a couple of months ago, and this Champ Week cannot have been a pleasant one for Nebraska.  The Huskers ended their season as a First Four Out, and with other teams improving their stock, Herbie’s continues to erode.  BracketMatrix still tracks them as the very last of the Next Four Out, but Lunardi has written them off completely.  We concur.  OUT.

Here is the full NBK before the brackets are announced later this evening.  Let me decode the hideous color scheme:

• Green are automatic qualifiers.  These NBK teams took care of business, won their conference tournament and are in the field.  They simply await their seed and location assignments.   Today is nothing but a party for them.
• Gray are teams we deem OUT.  No chance of their name being called.  The NBK committee has spoken.
• Orange teams remain in limbo, but all evidence points to their inclusion in the field of 68 today.

Adding up the Greens and Oranges, we project 10 teams in the field this year with the slightest chance of making the second weekend and their first ever Sweet Sixteen.

KenPom rankings are not final, as there are a handful of championship games to be played today.

Note: An earlier version of this post credited Houston with winning the American conference championship prematurely.  

Let’s recap activities from Wednesday for those teams who have never made the Sweet Sixteen since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985 aka the Never Been Kissed.

Virginia Tech went cold as ice and Notre Dame kept their dim hopes alive as the Irish downed the Hokies in the ACC tournament.  Va Tech drops to a 9-seed on Lunardi’s bracket but are still safely in the field of 68, it seems.

Congratulations to Bucknell on their second consecutive NCAA tournament berth, as the Bison demolished Colgate in the finals of the Patriot League.

No conference finals slated for Thursday or Friday, just quarterfinal and semifinal action until the weekend.   I will be watching the Michael Porter Jr show, and trying to catch Webster Groves in the state quarterfinals.

South Dakota….OUT.

The Coyotes lost to South Dakota St in a game the Jackrabbits seemed to control from the opening tip. We at NBK HQ might have made a mistake in selecting SD as our Summit League rep, as SD St looks more like a team capable of pushing through to the second weekend.  We will blame KenPom for that oversight.

Northeastern….OUT.

The Huskies took a different, more-agonizing path to ending their season.  In the Colonial final, Northeastern controlled the action throughout and had a 65-60 lead with under a minute to play and a 96.5% win probability per KenPom.   They converted that advantage into a seven-point overtime loss and a one-way ticket to Get Em Next Year.  Ugh.

Only one final tonight, and it has NBK implications.  Bucknell looks to squeeze out the Colgate in the Patriot final.

 

UNC-Greensboro is now in the field of 64, seeking their first appearance in the Sweet Sixteen since the field first expanded to 64 in 1985.

Loyola-Chicago won the Missouri Valley final on Sunday, dispatching Illinois St handily.   The Ramblers, however, made the Sweet Sixteen back in 1985 and are therefore ineligible for Never Been Kissed consideration.

Tonight, Northeastern looks to punch their ticket as they take on College of Charleston in the CAA final.  KenPom has Northeastern as a very slight favorite to win (51%), though Charleston swept the Huskies during the regular year.

South Dakota takes on South Dakota St for the Summit League crown.  They split the regular-season meetings, and KenPom favors South Dakota (55%).  State is listed as a 13-seed by BracketMatrix by virtue of holding the #1 seed in the tournament.  Should South Dakota prevail, we will see if their superior computer ranking allows them to grab a 12 or better.

Update on the teams we are tracking through the NBK: Never Been Kissed.  These teams have not made the Sweet Sixteen since the tournament was expanded to 64 teams back in 1985.   With no better than a 6-seed projected, odds are firmly against this group graduating any members this year.

Good luck to UNC-Greensboro in the Southern Conference final tonight.

March Madness is upon us, with one week to go until Selection Sunday and “Champ Week” (what a horrible name) getting in the swing.

Ken Pomeroy has tweeted conference tournament odds for all but one conference — the American wraps up play today with Cincy and Wichita St vying for the #1 seed.

Here’s how all that affects those teams looking to make the Sweet Sixteen for the first time ever (or at least since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985).  These teams have Never Been Kissed.

• Vermont stands the best chance of winning their conference tournament (75%), followed not too far behind by Bucknell (69%)
• Nebraska lost to Michigan in their Big 10 tournament opener, and looks at this point like a sure bet to be NIT-bound.  The Huskers one-point loss to Kansas in December will haunt their offseason.  At the time the close loss seemed indicative that Kansas would be lousy; instead it turns out Nebraska was pretty good and Kansas was Kansas.
• In happier news, Murray St. took care of business and won the Ohio Valley Conference tournament, beating Belmont to avenge their last loss.  The Racers go into the NCAA tournament on a 13-game winning streak.
• Norhern Kentucky stumbled out of the gate in the Horizon tournament, losing by nine to putrid Cleveland St (#317 KenPom).
• Middle Tennessee stumbled this week as well, losing their final regular season game to Marshall.   They still remain a strong favorite to win the C-USA tournament (42%) and an outside shot of securing an at-large berth (#44 KenPom)
• SMU stinks.  They should not be in the NBK.

It’s that time of year where we track the hopes and dreams of college basketball programs who have never made it to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament, never made the Sweet Sixteen, in other words Never Been Kissed (NBK).

Last year we watched South Carolina go from the NBK all the way to the Final Four. We watched Northwestern make the tournament for the first time ever (never been..thumb-warred?), win a game, and grab all the preseason NBK buzz with a #18 KenPom ranking in the preseason. A lethargic, sub-.500 season (15-16) leaves them out of the NBK entirely.

TCU has a great offense, and also has a great offense. Houston features a more balanced ledger and should give Cincinnati and Wichita St a run in the American conference tournament. Creighton has been up and down of late but it coming off a big home OT win over #1 Villanova. Virginia Tech is two more sweat-soaked, discarded Buzz Williams shirts from beating Duke on ESPN.

Middle Tennessee has dominated the C-USA and lead the way for the mid-majors.  Nebraska and Boise St are currently on the outside looking in, but remain solidly in the conversation and hungry for case-making wins.

My alma mater Saint Louis University (SLU), for whom the NBK was created, lost four players in a Title IX scandal and are not in the Top 100.   The 16×18 Society mourns.

<a few weeks into the season and I realize I never hit Publish on this.  Enjoy.>

As the leaves turn brilliant shades of amber and goldenrod , and daylight savings time serves to brighten our mornings and darken our afternoons, we turn our attention to the college basketball season.   The SLU women open Friday, Nov 10 at the Indiana State Sycamores, hoping to build on back-to-back 25-win seasons and get to the NCAA tournament for the first time ever.

 

Returning Players in Bold.

5. Katie Paganelli

Pags made a lot of threes (2nd all-time), shot a high percentage from the foul line (78%), and was a ball-hawking defender (9th all-time in steals) for the 2006-10 squads.  She grabbed the first rebound in Chaifetz Arena history.

4. Maddison Gits

This returning senior is a robust rebounder, a stout shot-blocker, and cash money from the line (84% last year).

3. Jackie Kemph

The reigning two-time Player of the Year in the Atlantic 10 Conference conference is already the all-time leader in steals, and will become top scorer replacing…

2. Sadie Stipanovich

Stipo finished her career last year as the school’s all-time leader in scoring, 2nd all-time in rebounds, 3rd in blocks, and 8th in free throw percentage (75.7%).

1. Amanda Kemezsys

Kemezsys had a stellar senior campaign, shooting 50% from the field, 70% from the line, pulling down 9.1 rebounds per contest including 19 and 18 board efforts.

The full list:

http://rpubs.com/gregrhoades/328272

Like any proxy composite measure for talent, Average Game Score per Minute has its share of limitations.  Among them are:

• Tempo Bias — today’s Billikens teams seem to play at a faster pace than in years past, skewing counting stats
• Limited visibility to “D” — we have steals, defensive rebounds and blocks, only a sliver of what is required and useful on defense
• Made for Dudes — the GameScore formula was created for the Men’s game and the relative importance of different stats likely could use tuning for the way the Women’s game is played
• Arbitrary Date Range — with data only dating back to 2010-11, we have Kameszsys’ great senior year unburdened by her somewhat-less brilliant first three campaigns
• No adjustments for strength of opponent — 20 & 10 against an NCAA tournament team should count more than 20 & 10 in an early-season tune-up

As more data comes available we will look for opportunities to refine and update these ratings.

 

With college basketball season six weeks away, let’s take a look to see where the returning SLU players rank in Game Score per Minute relative to recent history.

SLU Basketball 2011-2017

If anyone has access to electronic box scores prior to 2011, let me know and I will expand the comparison.   Like me, you are probably wondering how Donnie Dobbs stacks up against Grandy Glaze, and won’t rest until the matter is settled.