Busy times at WAB HQ means we are late getting started with this year’s effort to track the fates of those schools who have never made the Sweet Sixteen — Never Been Kissed (NBK) — since the NCAA Men’s Basketball tournament expanded to 64 teams back in 1985. What’s a Billiken favorites Saint Louis could play their way onto this list with a win in the A-10 semifinal this afternoon over tormentor VCU.
Five NBKers have made it to their conference tournament championship game today. They’re on the edge (the edge) of glory:
#1 Utah St (45%)vs San Diego St – 5 PM CST #3 Florida Atlantic (59%)vs UAB – 7:30 PM CST #11 Iona (89%) vs Marist – 6:30 PM CST #12 Toledo (47%) vs Kent St. – 6:30 PM CST #17 Vermont (66%)vs UMass Lowell – 10 AM CST
Utah St, Boise St, Yale, and Tulane will play today in the semifinals. Enjoy the action.
NBK standings & KenPom rankings through 3/10/2023. KenPom Conf Tourney odds via Ken’s Twitter, until the conference championship game, where they are the KenPom odds ($) of winning that showdown (Utah St, Florida Atlantic, Iona, Toledo, Vermont) . ESPN Bracketology as of 3/11/2023 at 2:30 AM EST.
The Billikens travel to…wherever Iona University is located…for a non-conference showdown with the Fightin’ Pitinos. We’ll take a Whatsabilliken look at the matchup as we do, by looking at how everyone fared the last time these two met and how these players rate versus others in the program’s recent history.
SLU prevailed 68-67 in January’s tightly contested game at Chaifetz Arena. The Bills overcame 21% three-point shooting and 19 turnovers thanks to the outsized efforts of Francis Okoro (13 points, 14 rebounds, 4 blocks) and Fred Thatch Jr. coming off the bench (9 points, 7 rebounds, 3 steals). Assuming everyone regresses to their mean tonight, the difference should come from players the Gaels did not have to face last year — Javon Pickett (transfer from Missouri), Jake Forrester (transfer from Temple, Indiana), and Javonte Perkins (injured all last year). The quality depth of the Billikens and multiple scoring options have allowed Perkins to ease into his return slowly.
Current players in Bold. Blue dots represent Billiken game score per 40 mins from the Iona @ SLU tilt on January 8, 2022 – a 68-67 SLU win.
As for the Gaels, in last season’s game Quinn Slazinski drew fouls on virtually every member of the Chaifetz family and was a perfect 8-8 from the foul line to lead the Iona attack. Slazinski has not played since the first two games of the year and appears to be out due to a high ankle sprain. No word on his availability tonight. Geographically-appropriately-named Nelly Junior Joseph (come on) also battled Okoro down low but could not overtake the SLU big man. With Slazinski likely out, and assuming Walter Clayton Jr returns to form a bit the one we’ll have our eye on is newcomer Daniss Jenkins. The 6’3″ junior from Dallas, TX transferred from Pacific this year and is putting up lots o’ shots, with games of 14 heaves, 14 jacks, and even 15 launches. But in the Gaels last game vs Canisius, Jenkins handed out 9 assists — a career-high by far — so we’ll see how much he’s in a sharing mood. Tis the season and whatnot.
Current Gaels in Bold. Red dots represent each Gael’s game score per 40 mins from the Iona @ SLU tilt on January 8, 2022 – a 68-67 SLU win.
The Gaels this year do not turn the ball over (#2 in the country in Off TO% per KenPom) and they block a lot of shots (#5 in Defensive Block %). They are likely to push the pace while the Bills slow it down. SLU’s advantage in Offensive Rebounding is likely to be offset by Iona’s advantage in Three-Point Shooting. KenPom gives SLU the slight edge (53% win probability) and we also expect this one to come down to the wire, once again. Ring out 2022 just as we rang it in.
Presented with little comment are the Top 5 prospects for tonight’s NBA Draft, in our order of preference.
1. Paolo Banchero – Duke
2. Keegan Murray – Iowa
3. Jaden Ivey – Purdue
4. Chet Holmgren – Gonzaga
5. Jabari Smith – Auburn
OK, here’s some comment:
Smith seems set to be the Number One pick by Orlando tonight, and I admit much of my anti-Smith bias comes from his two extremely forgettable performances against the teams I watch consistently. I was there in person on 12/18/2021 when the rumblings of his lottery pick status were beginning, and he posted a mediocre 13 points and 4 rebounds in a game Auburn struggled to win. Then a few weeks later 1/25/2022 he had only 5 points (added 10 rebounds) as Auburn struggled to shake pedestrian Mizzou. As the Auburn postseason ship was sinking, I was impressed with his increased rebounding — 9+ boards in five of their final seven games — but it was not enough to keep the ship afloat.
Paolo looks like the best player in this draft, leading a very-talented but oddly constructed Duke team to the Final Four with Coach K heading for the exit.
Keegan’s shot is a thing of beauty.
Ivey compares favorably to everybody’s favorite budding superstar Ja Morant.
Chet can do it all…but did not do it as well as one of our favorites — jackrabbit forward Brandon Clarke. And he’s probably the least consistent of these candidates. Many kinks to be worked out.
(8) North Carolina vs (1) Kansas – 8:20 PM CDT on TBS
Current Heels in Bold. Light blue dots are the Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Tar Heels’ Final Four win over Duke on Saturday night.Current hawks in Bold. Red dots are the Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Jayhawks’ Final Four win over Villanova on Saturday night.
Let’s take a WAB-style look at the Final Four matchups for this historic Saturday.
(2) Villanova vs (1) Kansas – 5:09 PM CDT on TBS
Looking first at Villanova, let’s start with the excellence of Jermaine Samuels these past two weeks. Samuels is the only player across all the Final Four teams who has out-performed his career during this year’s tournament run. (We’ll see later that Duke’s Wendell Moore Jr. and Kansas’ Remy Martin were very close to matching this Samuels’ feat.) With Justin Moore out after tearing his achilles at the end of the Houston game, Eric Dixon and Collin Gillespie will need to join Samuels in out-playing themselves.
Current Cats in Bold. Light blue dots are the Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Cats’ four tournament wins this year.
Kansas rode the Remy Matin reclamation project for the first three rounds, then overwhelmed Miami in the second half of their Elite Eight matchup. Mitch Lightfoot has been Remyesque, while Jalen Wilson and Christain Braun have been pretty steady and solid. Kansas went small to finish off Miami, leaving David McCormack on the bench while they ratcheted up the pace. Villanova already is small, without many viable options on the bench.
Current hawks in Bold. Red dots are the Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Jayhawks’ four tournament wins this year.
(8) North Carolina vs (2) Duke – 7:49 PM CDT on TBS
Armando Bacot has been fantastic thus far, and Brady Manek has had a couple of huge performances. Since they are the only two current Heels that perform above the average Heel (red dashed line) it seems fair to state UNC can’t win without those two going off.
Current Heels in Bold. Light blue dots are the Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Tar Heels’ four tournament wins this year.
Duke also has two big dudes up at the top of their ratings. Mr Inside Mark Williams and Mr All-Around Paolo Banchero. With AJ Griffin and Trevor Keels under-performing, it’s been Wendell Moore Jr who has picked up their slack.
Current Blue Devils in Bold. Light blue dots are the Game Score Per 40 Minutes in Duke’s four tournament wins this year.
Taking a WAB look at the players in today’s Elite Eight matchups, their performance in the last game relative to their usual, and how they compare with others at the same school over the past eleven-ish seasons.
(10) Miami vs (1) Kansas – 1:20 PM CDT on TBS
Current Canes in Bold. Green dots are Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Canes’ win over Iowa St in the Sweet Sixteen on Friday. Jordan Miller and Kameron McGusty were outstanding against the Cyclones. Miami’s a very top-heavy team; we suspect at least three of the top four will need to over-perform AND Sam Waardenburg is going to have to pull down 10 boards OR make four three-pointers for the Hurricanes to blow past Auntie Em and Kansas. Rumor has it Pat O’Brien has a very large wager on Miami for reasons unknown.Current hocks in Bold. Red dot represents Game Score Per 40 Minutes performance for the Hawkes in their Sweet Sixteen win over Providence on Friday. Impressive in their un-impressiveness, most of the Jayhawks were average or below and yet had little trouble dispatching the Friars. Your KenPom Game MVP for that one? It was the red-hot Remy Martin, for the third straight game. Wondering aloud who the last, and how many ever, have reeled off three straight as such in the NCAA tournament. And we’d have to assume he’s the first ever to do it (a) not starting, and (b) never having gained a KenPom Game MVP during the season. Is today vs Miami the game Martin regresses to the mean? What is his mean? A quick check says that his Arizona St level was right around that of David McCormack. How many questions can one caption hold? (We see you down there, Charlie Moore, below the Frankamp Line.)
(15) Saint Peter’s vs (8) North Carolina – 4:05 PM CDT on TBS
Current Cocks in Bold. Light blue dots are Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Peacocks’ win over Purdue in the Sweet Sixteen on Friday. Saint Peter’s remains the deepest team left in the field, playing 10 against the Boilermakers and #17 overall in the country per KenPom in Bench Minutes. This distributed production allowed the Peacocks to weather an off-game from leader KC Ndefo — fouling out in just 18 minutes — and a return to mortal shooting stats from Mustache Microwave Doug Edert — just 1 of 6 from the field.Current Heels in Bold. Dark blue dots denote Game Score Per 40 Minutes performance in the Heels’ OT win in the Sweet Sixteen over UCLA on Friday. As predicted, Brady Manek DID come back to Earth. Caleb Love, however, came back to Earth only long enough to rocket to the moon. The Saint Louisan bombed his way to 30 points and 4 assists against just one turnover to gain KenPom Game MVP honors. Armando Bacot and Brady Manek present an unusual combination of big guys — a huge contrast to that of Purdue’s twin towers Zach Edey and Travion Williams. The Heels duo are a Mr Inside of Bacot (9 three point attempts in 3 seasons) and Mr Outside of Manek (leading the Tar Heels in three-point makes with 88 and percent at 39.1%).
(5) Houston vs. (2) Villanova – 5:09 PM CDT on TBS
Maroon(?) dots are Game Score Per 40 Minute values for the Cougars in their Sweet Sixteen win over Arizona on Thursday. Moore and White weren’t great, but everyone else was terrific, led by KenPom Game MVP Jamal Shead and his 21 points and 6 assists.Light blue dots are the Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Cats’ win over Michigan in the Sweet Sixteen on Thursday night. Jermaine Samuels was crucial and had to be, as the rest of the Cats were at or below their averages.
(4) Arkansas vs. (2) Duke – 7:49 PM CDT on TBS
Black dots are Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Hogs’ win in the Sweet Sixteen over Gonzaga on Thursday night. Another strong game from Chris Lykes and solid from everyone else.Black dots are Game Score Per 40 Minutes for the Blue Devils in their Sweet Sixteen win over Texas Tech on Thursday. Paolo Banchero was the main man in this one, with Mark Williams doing what he normally does (hard to see, apologies for the similar-colored dots). Jeremy Roach seemed absolutely dominant down the stretch, but four turnovers held down his overall Game Score.
(15) Saint Peter’s vs (3) Purdue – 6:09 PM CDT on CBS
Light blue dots are Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Cocks’ win over Murray St in the second round last Saturday. Current Cocks in Bold. We discussed this one on Sunday – an out-of-this-world effort from leader KC Ndefo, some clutch shooting again from Doug Edert, and many good performances contributed to the resounding win.Black dots are Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Boliers’ second round win over Texas on Sunday. Current Boilers in Bold. Everyone did their part against Texas, within their usual range of performance, with the notable exception of Trevion Williams. His 22 points and 7 rebounds in just 24 minutes were crucial.
(4) Providence vs (1) Kansas – 6:29 PM CDT on TBS
Current Friars in Bold. Gray dots mark Game Score Per 40 Minutes performance in the Friars’ second round win over Richmond on Saturday. Top performer Nate Watson put in a solid performance in limited minutes due to foul trouble, but the rest of the team absolutely brought it — five scored in double figures (and a sixth had 9) and six registered assists. Current hocks in Bold. Red dot represents Game Score Per 40 Minutes performance for the Hawkes in their second round win over Creighton on Saturday. Like Providence, kansas got outsized performances from just about everyone in the second round. Remy Martin was on a complete other level — 20 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists in just 29 minutes — and garnered back-to-back KenPom Game MVP honors for the first time since Feb 2020 when he was with Arizona St. Also humorous to see Charlie Moore way down near the bottom of this list.
(8) North Carolina vs (4) UCLA – 8:39 PM CDT on CBS
Current Heels in Bold. Dark blue dots denote Game Score Per 40 Minutes performance in the Heels’ OT win in the second round over Baylord on Saturday. Brady Manek WILL come back to earth. Caleb Love should as well. The Tar Heels have a tight rotation – only playing six, maybe seven — with Kerwin Walton mostly relegated to the bench and Dontrez Styles‘ minutes varying wildly week-to-week. This analysis calls to question whether Justin McKoy is contributing enough to warrant his modest minutes as well.Current Bruins in Bold. Gold dot indicates Game Score Per 40 Minutes performance in the Bruins’ second round win over Saint Mary’s on Saturday. These results for the Double-J boys at the top seem to belie the eye test — Jaquez has looked reliable and indispensible while Juzang seems like he’s drifting in and out. Tyger Campbell was just as good as hit dot would indicate, and Jules Bernard came away with the KenPom Game MVP honors. This UCLA offense is very good at taking care of the ball — just 6 turnovers on Saturday and #5 in the country for the season — and the Tar Heels do not take it away. They start boxing out once you cross mid-court 🙂
(11) Iowa St vs (10) Miami FL – 8:59 PM CDT on TBS
Current Clones in Bold. Gold dot is Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Cyclones’ second round win over Wisconsin on Sunday. Iowa St is the one team that can safely claim not to have played very well in the second round, and still won. Ordinarily I’d blame a slow pace on these low marks, but Sunday’s game clipped along at a 69 possession pace, a few more than both school’s average. Overall the Cyclones shot terribly but were solid on the boards and turned the Badgers over just enough to escape with the win. Doubtful they get another Kane-esque performance from Gabe Kascheur tonight, but entirely reasonable to expect improvement from most others.Current Canes in Bold. Green dots are Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Canes’ second round win over Auburn on Sunday. Charlie Moore started at the bottom (see above) now he’s here. Miami does not rely on its bench much — just 22 minutes total in a relatively-comfortable win Sunday and #354 in the country for the season in Bench Minutes per KenPom — so these top four carry an outsized burden.
Black dots are Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Hogs’ second round win over New Mexico St last Saturday. Lykes had a great game, but the rest of the team just did what they do. Overall this is not a super-talented Arkansas team.Red dots are Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Zags’ win over Memphis last Saturday. Even with Holmgren’s breakout season he grades out lower than the great Brandon Clarke. I’d pay to watch him offensive rebound. Timme was outstanding, and had to be.
(2) Villanova vs (11) Michigan
Light blue dots are the Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Cats’ win over Ohio St last Sunday. Not a ton of high-level talent on this year’s edition, and they are hurt by Tempo Bias. Villanova typically plays slow, but this year’s edition has the parking brake on at all times. Maize dots are Game Score Per 40 Minutes for the Wolverines in their second round win over Tennessee last Saturday. Hunter Dickinson is the most-productive Wolverine in recent memory, and had to perform well above his usual high level to beat the Vols. He had help from Brooks and Williams, while Houstan, Johns and Collins were relative saboteurs.
(3) Texas Tech vs (2) Duke
Black dots mark Game Score Per 40 Minutes for the Red Raiders in their second round win over Notre Dame on Sunday. Not a dominant performance by any means, with only Obanor and Nadolny performing better than usual. Bryson Williams is in some high-dollar NBA lottery pick company. Black dots are Game Score Per 40 Minutes for the Blue Devils in their second round win over Michigan St on Sunday. My goodness Zion Williamson was good. Mark Williams has a boring name compared to his company in this chart, and he had a strong game vs Sparty. Paolo Banchero has been more productive than Jayson Tatum thus far.
(5) Houston vs (1) Arizona
Maroon(?) dots are Game Score Per 40 Minute values for the Cougars in their second round victory over Illinois on Sunday. Houston continues to operate in relative anonymity. Josh Carlton is the most-productive Coug in recent history and has zero buzz in NBA draft circles. Only Moore and Shead had above-norm games vs the Illini.Blue dot is Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Wildcats’ thrilling OT win over TCU in the second round. We went in depth in our NBK post on Monday. We’ll see if rookie coach Lloyd is null-and-void, or if he does the right thing and starts Justin Kier over Kerr Kriisa.
TCU was thisclose to giving us another first-time Sweet Sixteen participant, but alas the Horned Frogs fell to Arizona in Overtime in the late Sunday Night thriller and will live to haunt the NBK another season. Before we go into the particulars of the TCU-Arizona game, let’s take a look at the final-ish NBK Rankings, as Saint Peter’s alone graduates.
NBK Rankings after the Second Round. KenPom rankings through Sunday 3/20/2022. Win Probabilities were calculated using KenPom Adjusted Offensive & Defensive Efficiency ratings as close to the Game Date as possible. Though the Sweet Sixteen is set for this year, these rankings are not final as remaining games — NCAA, NIT, CIT, QWERTY — can still nudge the KenPom rankings a bit.
In our preview of Sunday night’s game, we noted the one strength TCU held over Arizona was in Offensive Rebounding. The Horned Frogs were #1 in the country in OR% and flexed those muscles against Arizona, snagging 40% of their misses. Eddie Lampkin Jr alone grabbed 10 offensive boards to go with 20 points and a pair of blocks. Big Lamp does not look the part, but he’s the most-productive TCU player on a Game Score Per Minute basis. Mike Miles and Damion Baugh shot poorly from three (1-10 combined) and Miles racked up fouls all second half. Chuck O’Bannon Jr had a good all-around game — 23 points, 5 rebounds, 4 steals — and is fun to watch shooting the three. And Micah Peavy had a really rough one — 1 point, 4 turnovers, 5 fouls — but Emanuel Miller and Xavier Cork contributed near their usual production and TCU was in this from the opening tip to the final whistle.
Difficult-to-see gray dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Horned Frogs’ second round OT loss to Arizona 3/20/2022. Current Frogs in Bold.
With a resounding dunk, followed by a season-saving three-pointer with 14 seconds left, Bennedict Mathurin showed his incredible array of skills. Perhaps more incredible was that even with Mathurin’s line of 30 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals, the player of the game (both in Game Score and in KenPom MVP) was Christian Koloko. The big man from Cameroon put up 28 points, 12 rebounds (7 offensive), 2 assists, 3 blocks and a steal while missing only one shot (12-13 from the field). Mathurin provided the fireworks in the end, but Koloko was doing everything everywhere all night long, offsetting sub-par performances from most of the Wildcats and an absolute Shark Sandwich from Kerr Kriisa. The overcaffinated headband-sporting freshman from Estonia, perhaps returning too quickly from a narsty ankle injury, nearly shot the Wildcats out of it. The most egregious display was in Overtime, when Kriisa clanged three straight three-point attempts from the same left-corner spot, Koloko dutifully shagging his misses and covering up his mistakes.
Red dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Wilcats’ second round win over NBK hopeful TCU on 3/20/2022. Current Cats in Bold. Kerr Kriisa the only minus player on Sunday.
NBK NEWS San Francisco lost their coach, as Todd Golden signed up to lead the Florida Gators program. Colorado St seeks to keep Niko Medved around, giving him a lucrative extension. Murray St coach Matt McMahon is head to LSU to clean up Will Wade’s mess. ESPN’s Coaching Carousel page ($) is very helpful in tracking these off-season activities. CBS has a great page too.
