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NBK Update: Championship Week Monday

As I watch Manhattan battle Iona for the MAAC championship, here are the latest goings-on with the Never Been Kissed conference.   KenPom posted most of the remainder of his Log5 projections for the conference tournaments, and that informs this ranking update heavily.

Here is the overall status of our 16:

  • IN: 1 (SMU)
  • OUT: 2 (Indiana St, Southern Miss)
  • FIGHTING: 12
  • PUCKERED: 1 (Murray St)

Shout out to the Jaspers for getting to this point.  They began their conference tournament with a 12.3% chance of winning it, but now are on ESPN2 with a 37% chance to dance.

The details:

NBK Rank
(Current)
Team (KenPom Rank)Conference FinishLog5 Conf Tourney Win %ESPN BracketologyRoad to the Sweet Sixteen
1SMU (26)T-1st (AAC)TBD6-seedTulsa - CHECK
11 Boise St
3 Iowa St
2Old Dominion (56)T-2th (CUSA)31.5%13-seedMiddle Tenn (Thu)
UTEP (Fri)
La Tech (Sat)
4 Louisville
5 West Virginia
3Georgia St (71)1st (Sun Belt)TBD13-seedGa Southern - CHECK
UL Lafayette (Sat)
Ga Southern (Sun)
4 Baylor
5 Arkansas
4Harvard (79)T-1st (Ivy)47%*Penn - CHECK
Yale (Sat)
?
?
5Manhattan (152)T-3rd (MAAC)12.3%Quinnipiac - CHECK
Marist - CHECK
St Peter's - CHECK
Iona (Mon)
?
?
6Montana (146)T-1st (Big Sky)TBD16-seedWeber St (Thu)
N Arizona (Fri)
E Washington (Sat)
16 Texas Southern
1 Kentucky
8 Cincinnati
7Murray State (77)1st (OVC)Next Four OutEight Days of Waiting
?
?
8New Mexico (133)8th (MWC)1.8%Air Force (Wed)
Boise St (Thu)
Wyoming (Fri)
San Diego St (Sat)
?
?
9Creighton (89)T-9th (BE)0.5%DePaul (Wed)
Georgetown (Thu)
Butler (Fri)
Villanova (Sat)
?
?
10Nebraska (131)12th (B1G)0.03%Penn St (Wed)
Iowa (Thu)
Purdue (Fri)
Wisconsin (Sat)
Maryland (Sun)
?
?
11Colorado (99)T-8th (P12)0.3%Oregon St (Wed)
Oregon (Thu)
Utah (Fri)
Arizona (Sat)
?
?
12Fordham (213)T-12th (A10)0.07%George Mason (Wed)
VCU (Thu)
Richmond (Fri)
Davidson (Sat)
Dayton (Sun)
?
?
13Saint Louis (293)14th (A10)0.002%Duquesne (Wed)
Geo Wash (Thu)
Rhode Island (Fri)
Dayton (Sat)
Davidson (Sun)
?
?
14Indiana St (172)3rd (MVC)OUTget 'em next year
15Southern Miss (313)13th (CUSA)OUTget 'em next year
16Northwestern (111)11th (B1G)0.2%Indiana (Thu)
Maryland (Fri)
Michigan St (Sat)
Wisconsin (Sun)
?
?

NBK Update: Early Sunday

One week to go until Selection Sunday, when the Never Been Kissed gang gets the signal to either pucker up or take a cold shower and come back strong next year.

With the promise and glory of conference tournaments keeping hope alive, Indiana St became the first NBKer to be officially eliminated from the NCAA Tournament.   The Sycamores were smoked 81-52 in the first round of Arch Madness by Porter Moser’s Loyola Ill team.   Hard to fathom how ISU finished tied for third in the conference, as Illinois St — who beat Wichita St to go to Sunday’s tourney final — and Loyola both look substantially stronger.

Harvard has a horseshoe lodged firmly in its hind-quarters, as Yale fell to Dartmouth on a buzzer-beater Saturday night, dropping the Eli or Bulldogs or VPs of Finance into a tie atop the tourney-less Ivy.  Harvard meets Yale in a one-game playoff Saturday at the Palestra in Philadelphia to decide who dances.   (Since we are talking Harvard-Yale, the dancing is sure to be somewhat off-tempo featuring lots of overbites)

Murray St may be racing for the NIT after a heart-breaking loss to Belmont in the title game of the Ohio Valley Conference.  Speculation is that the Racers lack of quality wins — #63 and rising Illinois St is their only Top 100 win — negates the 25-game win streak and keeps them from the Big Dance.

Personally, I would pay to see Cameron Payne and TJ Sapp and Jarvis Williams and all the Racers advance ahead of the likes of Illinois, Purdue, or UCLA.   This is a chance for the committee to consider the Fun Factor.  Though the hashtag #RacersDerserveABid is not actually true – can’t say they deserve it – we at WAB fully endorse its use.  Racer fans’ sphincters will be puckered all this week; we hope to see their lips puckered the week following.

Georgia St took care of business on Saturday, winning the Sun Belt outright and with authority over number two Georgia Southern 72-55.  They take the number 1 seed to the conference tournament in New Orleans.  More importantly to their Sweet Sixteen chances, the Panthers moved up a line on the Bracketology list to a 13-seed.  As we have noted many times, the 4s and 5s always look wobbly come tournament time and 13 is a terrific place for an underdog to emerge from the first weekend.

The Grizzlies of Montana were like Michael Corleone during a baptism on Saturday.  They went into cross-state rivals Montana St and crushed them 70-55, put a sack over the head of Sac St who lost at the Walkup Skydome to drop from the top, and somehow emerged from this byzantine tie-breaker scenario not only as co-conference champs but as Conference Tournament hosts.

Old Dominion has now ripped off six straight and the KenPom.com computer has taken notice, ranking the Monarchs a frisky #57.  Joey Brackets’ radar has extended to Norfolk, as ODU has inched up to the precarious Next Four Out list.  At WAB, we wait with baited breath to see KenPom’s log5 simulation of the CUSA tournament.  Champion Louisiana Tech won the league by two games but at #72 is rated lower than ODU.  And the Monarch’s defense — #47 in AdjD — stands as the only unit in the conference in the Top 50 nationally.

At the other end of the CUSA stands disgraced NBKer Southern Miss.  CUSA is an invitation-only-style tournament, and the Golden Eagles fell all the way from number 5 in the preseason NBK rankings to finishing three-games from qualifying for the conference tournament.  Really rough start for Doc Sadler in Hattiesburg.

Like Georgia St, SMU has a winner-take-all showdown for the conference title and number 1 seed on Sunday, in Dallas vs the Tulsa Hurricanes.  KenPom likes the Mustangs (predicting 82% chance of a win and forecasting a score of 67-58), and we at WAB concur.  The Haithers gonna Haith, Haith, Haith, Haith, Haith and the Hurricanes are gonna Cane, Cane, Cane, Cane, Cane but we suspect Larry Brown and co will shake it off.

Steve Masiello and the Manhattan Jaspers are moving right along in the MAAC tournament, making the semi-finals.  They are favored to beat St Peter’s today and potentially take on top-seeded Iona in the final.

Full NBK update below, grid-style and ordered by Current Kissability rating.

NBK Rank
(Current)
TeamKenPom RankConference FinishLog5 Conf Tourney Win %ESPNRoad to the Sweet Sixteen
1SMU24T-1st (AAC)6-seedTulsa
11 Oklahoma St
3 Notre Dame
2Georgia St711st (Sun Belt)13-seedGa Southern - CHECK
4 Northern Iowa
5 Arkansas
3Harvard79T-1st (Ivy)47%*Penn - CHECK
Yale
4 Oklahoma
5 Arkansas
4Montana146T-1st (Big Sky)15-seed**2 Gonzaga
7 Ohio St
5Murray State771st (OVC)50.9%Next Four OutEight Days of Waiting
?
?
6Old Dominion57T-2th (CUSA)13-seed**Louisiana Tech
4 Louisville
5 West Virginia
7Manhattan168T-3rd (MAAC)12.3%Quinnipiac - CHECK
Marist - CHECK
St Peter's
Iona
?
?
8Creighton91T-9th (BE)
9Nebraska12812th (B1G)
10Colorado97T-8th (P12)
11Indiana St1553rd (MVC)0.9%OUTget 'em next year
12New Mexico1348th (MWC)
13Fordham216T-12th (A10)
14Saint Louis29314th (A10)
15Southern Miss 31313th (CUSA)OUTget 'em next year
16Northwestern11111th (B1G)

Footnotes:

* The Ivy League is the last remaining conference to eschew a conference tournament, so I cheated a bit here and used KenPom’s odds of Harvard beating Yale in their one-game playoff next Saturday

** Bracketology currently shows another team from these conferences getting the auto-bid, but the team shown is rated lower than their NBK-certified rival so I swapped the NBKer in

Resources:

  • Ratings, Log5 and most other data from the incredible KenPom.com.  This is his world and the WAB and NBK just live in it.
  • ESPN Bracketology updated frequently by the incomparable Joey Brackets aka Joe Lunardi
  • CBS Sports has a great conference tournament bracket site here

NBK: Conference Races

We are building toward Conference Tournament season or Championship Week, if you prefer.  We have had a lot of significant movement in the NBK this week.  First the updated NBK standings.

All data from KenPom.com with the exception of ESPN’s Bracketology from Joe Lunardi aka Joey Brackets.  Teams ranked by Current Kissability.

NBK Rank
(Current)
TeamKenPom RankConf FinishLog5 Conf Tourney Win %ESPN BracketologyRoad to the Sweet Sixteen
1SMU23T-1st (AAC)6-seedTulsa
11 BYU / Purdue
3 Iowa St
2Murray State751st (OVC)50.9%12-seed5 West Virginia
4 Northern Iowa
3Georgia St76T-1st (Sun Belt)14-seedGa Southern
3 Maryland
6 Providence
4Montana156T-1st (Big Sky)Montana St
Sacramento St
16 Charleston Southern
1 Virginia
8 St John's
5Old Dominion65T-2th (CUSA)
6Nebraska12812th (B1G)
7Colorado96T-8th (P12)
8Manhattan1714th (MAAC)12.3%
9Creighton919th (BE)
10Indiana St1553rd (MVC)0.9%
11New Mexico1278th (MWC)
12Fordham207T-12th (A10)
13Saint Louis29614th (A10)
14Southern Miss 31413th (CUSA)
15Harvard702nd (Ivy)--Penn
Yale
4 Oklahoma
5 Arkansas
16Northwestern106T-10th (B1G)

Now some color commentary.

SMU

The Mustangs lost last Sunday to Cincinnati, opening the door for Tulsa to grab the #1 spot in the AAC tournament from betwixt their hooves.  However, the Hurricanes blew it by losing to Cincinnati on Wednesday.  This sets up nicely for a winner-take-all match on Sunday afternoon in Dallas between SMU and Tulsa.  Not only is this the most exciting game in the history of the AAC, but this serves as an early jolt of March Madness energy for the NBKs most kissable squad.

A win Sunday sets the bit and establishes this team as champions of something, creating a possibility of being pod champions in a couple weeks.  A loss Sunday puts a taste of blood in their mouths, and may leave them hungry for vengeance.   Talented team, nicely positioned to do some damage in March.

Harvard

The Crimson suffered the toughest NBK loss of the week, falling at home Friday night to their arch-rivals the Yale Bulldogs at home by ten: 62-52.  This is problematic, as Harvard becomes the very first NBK squad that does not control its own destiny.  The now-second-place Crimson need to beat Brown this weekend and hope Yale loses to Dartmouth, and then they have to beat Yale in a one-game playoff.  Oh, and with this loss Harvard has likely devalued the Ivy League tournament slot out of the cushy 12 / 13 seed down the much more treacherous 14 line.   4s and 5s are ripe for the picking; 3s are better-prepared.

Georgia St

The Panthers sit tied for first in the Sun Belt, and much like SMU they have a winner-take-all game this weekend against Georgia Southern.   Joey Brackets has our Panthers as a 14-seed at the moment, so they do have the potential to sneak up to the more favorable 12/13.  Much can and will change in a week.

Montana

This has been one great year for Larry Krystkowiak.   Not only is his current team the Utah Utes sit at #7 in the KenPom rankings and poised for a deep tournament run, but his alma mater the Grizzlies enter Championship in a three-way tie for first in the Big Sky.   Of the co-leaders, Montana seems to have the edge to stay on top as they play their cross-state rivals (?) #316 Montana St in the I Don’t Know What They Call This Game Series.

It will be tough sledding even if the Grizz get in; not only are they likely to get a 16-seed, they may even get the play-in version of that seed.

Old Dominion

ODU is making a late surge, winning five straight to move into a tie for 2nd place in CUSA and pursing slightly.   They have moved from #88 KenPom down to #66 over the course of the five-game winning streak and are getting frisky.

SLU

Saint Louis University, founded in 1818, also fielded a basketball team this winter.  I put this in the past tense as it looks like the team has hit one to many walls, and their best basketball is behind them.  In the time ODU has moved up 22 spots in the KenPom, SLU has lost 32 spots (from #251 to #283).  Short of Justin Love coming off the bench to rain threes and shattering fibulas, the Billikens are not terribly kissable right now.  Perhaps a toothbrush and some mints.

Checking in on the NBK

With just two weeks and some change remaining until Selection Sunday, it seems like the right time to check in on the Never Been Kissed (NBK) member schools.  ICYMI the NBK is a fake conference we invented to track the progress of some Billiken contemporaries.  Full post is here.  To refresh:

In order to be eligible for induction into the NBK, member schools have to meet the following criteria:

  • Must field a Division I basketball team

  • Must have never have made the Sweet Sixteen

Teams ordered by Current Kissability.  All data from KenPom.com with the exception of Bracketology from ESPN’s Joe Lunardi.

NBK Rank
(Current)
TeamNBK Rank
(Preseason)
KenPom RankConference StandingESPN BracketologyRoad to the Sweet Sixteen
1SMU1231st (AAC)6-seedLSU
Iowa St
2Murray State11711st (OVC)13-seedLouisville
Baylor
3Harvard464T-1st (Ivy)12-seedYale
Baylor
Louisville
4Georgia St677T-1st (Sun Belt)16-seedGonzaga
San Diego St
5Old Dominion1382T-4th (CUSA)
6Montana15159T-2nd (Big Sky)
7Nebraska311110th (B1G)
8Colorado2100T-9th (P12)
9Indiana St121563rd (MVC)
10Creighton711410th (BE)
11New Mexico9120T-7th (MWC)
12Manhattan101874th (MAAC)
13Fordham14202T-12th (A10)
14Saint Louis825514th (A10)
15Southern Miss531813th (CUSA)
16Northwestern1612012th (B1G)

SMU

SMU is in the best position at this point.  They have a two-game lead on fading Tulsa in the AAC and enough of a resume to grab an at-large bid.  Once in the tournament, they are a study in balance with the #36 AdjO and #38 AdjD, and both a solid Mr Inside (6’11” Yanick Moreira) and sterling Mr Outside (5’9″ Nic Moore).

Unless someone drops down to the Play-in round, the Mustangs stand to be the only NBK team that will be favored in an NCAA game this March.  Pucker up, Mustang fans.

Murray State

Since starting the season 2-4 and losing to the likes of Houston and Portland, Murray State has ripped off a streak of 20 straight wins, led by PG Cameron Payne (#8 in Assist Rate) and the #26 overall offense.  Seth Davis has a Sharpie in his pocket, and is glad to see the Racers.

Interesting that Joe Lunardi has Murray State and fellow-NBKer Harvard in the 4v13 / 5v12 pod.  These pods have been fertile ground for upsets in tournaments past.

Harvard

Speaking of the Crimson, Harvard was an early media darling but stumbled hard out of the gate losing to #247 Holy Cross in November, and following that up with a 72-27 loss to #2 Virginia.  That is not a misprint.  That was a palindrome, and also a nightmare if you are a Crimson fan.

But Harvard has steadied the ship of late and is in pretty good shape atop the Ivy, with their remaining Yale game coming at home.  They feature a strong defense (#13 in the country) and though their resume is thin — exactly one Top 100 win — Lunardi is forecasting they have enough Tommy Amaker shine to get into the Upset Pod.

Harvard vs Murray State in the second round would be a dream NBK matchup, champagne popping in the end regardless.  It would be a study of Harvard’s stout defense vs Murray State’s dynamic offense.  (Take the Racers).

Georgia St

The Panthers enter the discussion by moving into a tie in the Sun Belt with Georgia Southern and UL-Monroe.   Georgia St plays both their rivals the final week and control their destiny. Once in the tournament, however, a gauntlet awaits.  It is hard to envision a scenario where they get in the tournament above a 16-seed.

The Rest

  • Nobody has fallen farther faster than Southern Miss, as a promising finish to last season has deteriorated into mounting losses and an NCAA probe.  Mounting and probing are always bad when it comes to basketball.
  • SLU and Creighton are both on a similar arc, rebuilding with young guys and exploring the depths of their conferences after enjoying a couple of years on top.
  • Montana has a decent shot of getting in the tournament, but will also be hard-pressed to climb up beyond a 16-seed
  • Indiana St would make a lot of sense as a sleeper NBK team, as the two teams they trail in the MVC are #11 Northern Iowa and #13 Wichita St, both equipped for deep runs this season.  But those programs are not lifting the rest of the Valley.  With a home loss to SLU and their best win over #71 Illinois St, the Sycamores do not have the resume to get a reasonable seed.  Only a five-game tear through Arch Madness would give them a reasonable shot at the Sweet Sixteen.
  • Iona was not selected this season, but I can see a scenario where the Gaels get in and draw a defensively-challenged #2 or #3 seed (hello Notre Dame) and rain a hellfire of threes on their bewildered heads in round one, then hang on to win one of those #15 vs #10 bruisers in round two.
  • Northwestern has put together a few wins in the B1G and climbed out of its basement.  By all rights, they should not be ranked last in the NBK.  However, we remind you the Wildcats have never made the NCAA Tournament much less the Sweet Sixteen so the coveted 16th spot in the NBK is theirs for the forseeable future.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

VCU 74, Saint Louis 54: Game Twenty-six

I bite my tongue and dry my tears
You know the day is done, but not the years
Twenty Six lives,
Will flowers ever grow here? — Saints of Valory

In Game Twenty-six the reeling and road-weary Billikens (#251 KenPom.com) visited #26 VCU.  The first game between these two was a Friday-night thriller worthy of Prime Time and National Television, won by the Rams on a furious drive by likely A-10 Player of the Year Traveon Graham.

Graham sat out the last 16 minutes of this edition as VCU cruised to the 74-54 win, keeping pace with Dayton, Rhody and UMass at the top of the conference.

Jerry Falwell Scoreboard

SLU went down early 10-2, then 27-17 and did not put up much of a fight.  SLU falls to 10-16 overall, 2-11 in the Atlantic 10 conference, and 5-6 in the Jerry Falwell.   The breaks are now officially beating the boys on our quest for a moral majority this season.

Lineups

Starters:

  • Miles Reynolds (1st start this season)
  • Davell Roby (24)
  • Ash Yacoubou (25)
  • Milik Yarbrough (17)
  • John Manning (21)

Well done, Safecracker.  Reynolds has shown an incredible ability to get to the foul line, and this strength bears exploring against an over-aggressive Havoc defense. Minutes Distribution (non-starters in Bold):

    1. Roby (27)
    2. Yarbrough (24)
    3. Yacoubou (21)
    4. Marcus Bartley (21)
    5. Mike Crawford (21)
    6. Austin Gillmann (19)
    7. Reynolds (17)
    8. Austin McBroom (12)
    9. Reggie Agbeko (12)
    10. Tanner Lancona (11)
    11. Brett Jolly (8)
    12. Manning (7)

Reynolds started, but Bartley got more minutes.  Manning started, did not get in foul trouble, but hardly played.  Twelve guys got to play and see Havoc in its home environs.

Four Factors

College Basketball Stats

The Four Factors were indicative of the margin and lack of drama in this game.   VCUs margin in any of the Four may have tilted a tight game in their favor, but a clear and clean sweep left no doubt.

Leverage

Data www.kenpom.com
Data www.kenpom.com

No leverage to be found.  This game was a long-shot before the opening tip, and never heated up.  The featured image at the top of this post really tells you all you need to know.  In it you see a fully developed and highly skilled Man (Traveon Graham) virtually licking his chops against an unsure, untested and lightly mustachioed Boy (Miles Reynolds) experiencing Havoc for the first time.

SLU Player Stats

(Definitions at the bottom of the post)

Data www.kenpom.com
Data www.kenpom.com
  • Yarbrough broke out of a mini-slump with a solid game, shooting over 50% from the field, pulling down five boards and limiting turnovers and fouls
  • And despite earlier comments, Reynolds did a solid job running the point, including his usual outsized effort of getting to the line (6 free throw attempts in 17 mins)
  • Bartley’s three-point percentage continues to rise.  After a perfect 3-3 against VCU he is now up to 42.9% on the year, second only to McBroom (45.9%).
  • Crawford did more Stability Team work, dishing and fouling with only a few shots
  • TANNER LANCONA, FROM THREE…….YES!!!!!!

This has been a horrific shooting year for the Sophomore.  Last season in limited minutes, Lancona shot a respectable 5-14 (35.7%) from three.  That season was on par with Billikens of the recent past such as:

  • Tommie Liddell – 2008 – 34.9%
  • Tommie Liddell – 2009 – 35.4%
  • Mike McCall Jr – 2012 – 34.8%
  • Rob Loe – 2012 – 35.1%
  • Austin McBroom – 2014 – 35.2%

This year he is 2-24, which comes to 8.3%.  I could not find a similar season-long single-digit percentage slump, save Miles Reynolds 1-15 (6.7%).  Lancona looks like he could bang the boards, he showed last year he could hit some open 3s, but this season has just been a Sophomore Slump.  The geometry of the SLU offense does not work when the 4 man is neither stretching the defense nor pulling down rebounds.

Summary

The Billikens concluded their Farewell Tour, saying goodbye to their back-to-back Atlantic 10 titles and passing the torch along to a new champion.  They did the league a favor by not pinning any bad losses on the top contenders, doing their part to keep five teams NCAA hopes alive — VCU, Dayton, Rhode Island, Davidson and UMass.  It will be an exciting finish….for them.  For us it is a learning experience and just the start of a journey.

—————————————————————————–————–————–

AdjGS:  variation on the Game Score metric created by John Hollinger, detailed here.  Hollinger’s original formula is Adjusted to reallocate the points in the game by ratio of the player’s overall impact.  Credit to the team at Rock M Nation for this improvement.

True Shooting %:  Per Basketball Reference, true shooting percentage is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.

Leverage:  Per Ken Pomeroy, measures how much is at stake on a particular possession.  Leverage is not based on what happened during the possession, but is the range of win probability based on what could have happened.  Learn more here.

FTRate:  Per Ken Pomeroy, free throw rate is calculated by 100*FTA/FGA. This measures a player’s ability to get the line relative to how often he attempts to score.

DNP-CD:  Did Not Play – Coach’s Decision.  Healthy and otherwise eligible player who did not see any action in the game.

Rhode Island 81, SLU 68: Game Twenty-five

There’s twenty-five years
To work out where we’re going
I know summer’s almost over
So before it starts snowing –Saint Etienne

Game Twenty-five was a roady at Rhody.  The Rams kept the heat on our young Bills and moved into a three way tie atop the A-10, joining Dayton and VCU.

Off the bench, Miles Reynolds scored a career-high 21 points. Reynolds’ ability to get to the free throw line is super-natural. For comparison, here are a few notable recent Billikens and their Free Throw Rates:

  • Ian Vouyoukas, 2006:  73.4
  • Brian Conklin, 2012: 64.4
  • Dwayne Evans, 2013: 61.1

Reynolds’ FTRate this season is 154.5.  That is just nuts.  I am turning the WAB supercomputer loose on trying to find anyone even close.

Jerry Falwell Scoreboard

Negativo.  This was not a closely-contested game at any point, as we will see later in the (Lack of) Leverage section.  Positives included getting Crawford a start and Reynolds and Roby’s relentless attacking.  But not enough material for a moral victory.

SLU falls to 10-15 overall, 2-10 in the Atlantic 10, and 5-5 in the Jerry Falwell.

Lineups

Starters:

  • Marcus Bartley (13th start this season)
  • Davell Roby (23)
  • Mike Crawford (1)
  • Milik Yarbrough (16)
  • John Manning (20)

Yacoubou had started all 24 previous.   The team was not lighting the world on fire, so Crawford gets the nod.

Minutes Distribution (non-starters in Bold):

  1. Roby (36)
  2. Yarbrough (34)
  3. Miles Reynolds (25)
  4. Reggie Agbeko (24)
  5. Crawford (16)
  6. Brett Jolly (16)
  7. Bartley (14)
  8. Austin Gillmann (14)
  9. Manning (10)
  10. Ash Yacoubou (7)
  11. Tanner Lancona (3)
  12. Austin McBroom (1)

Given Yarbrough’s recent struggles, I would not be surprised to see some of the Yarbrough / Manning combo minutes go instead to Agbeko / Gillmann.  They operate best at different points on the floor.

Four Factors

The Billikens fumbled this one away, pressured by the Rams into 21 turnovers.  The Rams has only 10 turnovers.

Leverage

Data www.kenpom.com
Data www.kenpom.com

No meaningful minutes to be had in this one.  The Bills started as heavy underdogs, fell behind 14-6 and never got closer than 10 points the rest of the way.

SLU Player Stats

(Definitions at the bottom of the post)

Data www.kenpom.com
Data www.kenpom.com
  • The Safecracker fired up the Rey Rey machine for another go and he nearly matched his 14-18 FT feast from way back before Thanksgiving with a 13-15.
  • Roby also attacked and went a perfect 10-10 from the line, offsetting poor shooting from the field and kicking in 5 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 steals.  Roby has logged at lot of minutes this season and fortunately seems only to be getting stronger.
  • Agbeko nearly hit a season high in minutes and contributed 4-5 from the field and 6 rebounds
  • Crawford made little of his first start, only taking 3 shots in 16 minutes.  As a shooting threat, he should be able to open up lanes for the attacking guards, and the next stage of offensive evolution for this team will bring the drive-and-kick into play.  Meanwhile, much like Jake Barnett before him, Mike Crawford is going to have to show he can at least slow down his man and funnel on defense.
  • So difficult to say if the intention was to feature Yacoubou for extended time off the bench, as he hacked his way to 4 fouls in just 7 minutes.  This was the only game he has not started, and also the only single-digit game for Ash.  Uncharacteristic.

So given all this, what you have seen this year, and where we are going next year and beyond, who do you play?

Summary

SLU’s doldrums coincide with a tour of this year’s contenders to succeed them as Atlantic 10 champions: Dayton, Rhode Island and on to VCU on Tuesday.  The losses continue to mount, and moral victories are not flowing freely either.   Yarbrough seems out of gas, and the #13 defense of the Rams was not going to provide any rejuvenation.

Geometry, meaningful minutes, and league orientation are what we need to maximize in the remaining three weeks.

—————————————————————————–————–————–

AdjGS:  variation on the Game Score metric created by John Hollinger, detailed here.  Hollinger’s original formula is Adjusted to reallocate the points in the game by ratio of the player’s overall impact.  Credit to the team at Rock M Nation for this improvement.

True Shooting %:  Per Basketball Reference, true shooting percentage is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.

Leverage:  Per Ken Pomeroy, measures how much is at stake on a particular possession.  Leverage is not based on what happened during the possession, but is the range of win probability based on what could have happened.  Learn more here.

FTRate:  Per Ken Pomeroy, free throw rate is calculated by 100*FTA/FGA. This measures a player’s ability to get the line relative to how often he attempts to score.

DNP-CD:  Did Not Play – Coach’s Decision.  Healthy and otherwise eligible player who did not see any action in the game.

Dayton 51, SLU 44: Game Twenty-four

Twenty four oceans
Twenty four skies
Twenty four failures
Twenty four tries
Twenty four finds me
In twenty-fourth place — Switchfoot

Game Twenty-four on this rebuilding season was a slog, a donnybrook, a slugfest.  SLU (#253 in KenPom.com during this rebuilding season) got down in the mud pit with Dayton (#37) in a late night tilt at Chaifetz Arena.  If you recall last season, the Flyers came into Chaifetz and spoiled the senior night party, sending the tired Billikens to their third straight loss and seemingly ending hopes of the Bills repeating as A-10 champs.

The Bills would rebound with a clutch win at UMass on a clutch drive by Jordair Jett to secure a second straight A-10 title.  And those Flyers would soar as well with an improbable, electric run to the Elite Eight.

Last year’s team won with Offense (#38 KenPom in  AdjO Efficiency).  This year they are woefully undersized due to a pair of early-season suspensions, and horribly thin (#325 in Bench Minutes) but are getting it done with Defense (#23 AdjD Efficiency) and getting to the free throw line (#3 in FTA/FGA).

This was a must-win for the Flyers to keep pace with VCU and Rhode Island at the top of the conference.

Jerry Falwell Scoreboard

Let’s run through a few characteristics of this game:

  • Opponent coming off an Elite Eight appearance
  • Opponent in contention for an A-10 title
  • Opponent headed to the NCAA Tournament
  • Late night game on National TV, if you count NBC Sports Network as such
  • High leverage through the entire second half

This is the very definition of a Moral Victory.  So in SLUs quest for a moral majority this counts in the W column.  SLU stands 10-14 overall, 2-9 in the Atlantic 10, and 5-4 in the Jerry Falwell.

Lineups

Starters:

  • Marcus Bartley (12 starts this season)
  • Davell Roby (22)
  • Ash Yacoubou (24)
  • Milik Yarbrough (15)
  • John Manning (19)

Manning back in the starting lineup after a couple games away recoving from concussion-like symptoms.

Minutes Distribution (non-starters in Bold):

  1. Yacoubou (34)
  2. Bartley (29)
  3. Roby (28)
  4. Yarbrough (23)
  5. Austin Gillmann (19)
  6. Manning (16)
  7. Mike Crawford (14)
  8. Tanner Lancona (10)
  9. Austin McBroom (9)
  10. Miles Reynolds (8)
  11. Reggie Agbeko (6)
  12. Brett Jolly (5)

The Minutes skewed much more heavily toward the Starters than most games this year.  Dayton’s resolute insistence on challenging much bigger players — particularly the fearless sophomore Kyle Davis — rendered SLUs huge size advantage mostly useless.

Four Factors

The Billikens did not win any of these categories, but muddied the waters enough to keep three of the Four down to only slight advantage.  The big red bar to the right shows very clearly the method Dayton used to win this game: fearless attack from all angles and all players to win the FT rate battle.

This is such a bold and interesting style for a team that is undersized and short-handed as the Flyers are.  If the calls tilt the wrong way, particularly on the road, foul trouble can handcuff this team more than most.   With just one Senior among their six rotation players — they play about six and a half each game — you can’t call this team Experienced (#221 per KenPom.com).  But the quality of their experience and their coaching shows poise beyond the counting numbers of years and minutes.

We at WAB and the 16×18 Society are looking for these qualities in the Billikens.

Leverage

Data www.kenpom.com
Data www.kenpom.com

This game again broke the WAB Supercomputer, with High Leverage off the scale (20:15), including almost the entire second half.  SLU led the first half, withstood a couple of runs by the Flyers, but water drip-drip-dripped and the better team prevailed in the end.

SLU Player Stats

(Definitions at the bottom of the post)

Data www.kenpom.com
Data www.kenpom.com
  •  Take a look at the top and bottom lines for a moment.  By their cavernous differences in AdjGS (Yacoubou 32.3, Bartley minus 26.7) we would call Yacoubou’s a great game and Bartley’s a complete disaster.  But look closely:  both shot poorly, both had 4 turnovers, both committed 3 fouls.  The real difference was Yacoubou had just enough positive contributions to offset those negatives.  In a High Leverage game with little margin for error, every little thing counts.  So though AdjGS blows positive and negative contributions WAY out of proportion in this case, within the context of this game it seems entirely appropriate and indicative.
  • Roby would fit in very well with the Flyers this year.  Heck, he could probably play center for them at 6’4″.
  • As Yacoubou vs Bartley is informative, we examine Agbeko vs Jolly.  We suspect Jim “Safecracker” Crews had the intention of using Brett Jolly as his Flyer anti-aircraft missile off the bench.  Jolly instead hacked two quick fouls and committed a turnover.  Meanwhile, Agbeko used his minutes wisely and provided a matchup problem.  In hindsight, we wonder what extended Agbeko minutes could have yielded.
  • Yarbrough again struggled as he regresses to his early season numbers

Summary

 If you enjoy high scoring, marksmanship, and getting to bed early, well you really hated this matchup.  But if you are interested in how grit, poise, determination, and teamwork can steal a road win, this year’s Dayton Flyers are the team for you.  SLU did well to sling mud with them, putting Forty good minutes in the bank for the future.

—————————————————————————–————–————–

AdjGS:  variation on the Game Score metric created by John Hollinger, detailed here.  Hollinger’s original formula is Adjusted to reallocate the points in the game by ratio of the player’s overall impact.  Credit to the team at Rock M Nation for this improvement.

True Shooting %:  Per Basketball Reference, true shooting percentage is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.

Leverage:  Per Ken Pomeroymeasures how much is at stake on a particular possession.  Leverage is not based on what happened during the possession, but is the range of win probability based on what could have happened.  Learn more here.

DNP-CD:  Did Not Play – Coach’s Decision.  Healthy and otherwise eligible player who did not see any action in the game.

Fordham 83, SLU 65: Game Twenty-three

Twenty-three and it’s so sad to see. — Yellowcard

Maybe “sad to see” is on the melodramatic side.  Feel free to pull a Yellow card on us.

SLU (#244 in KenPom.com ratings coming in) went to #276 Fordham and received a shellacking, giving the Rams their first win in conference play and missing out on the chance to rub two wins together for the first time since before Christmas.

The pre-game buzz, if there was such a thing from two teams lurking at the bottom of the Atlantic 10, was around the matchup of the two promising freshman: Milik Yarbrough from SLU vs Eric Paschall from Fordam.  Both stand a sturdy 6’6″ and are fluid and shifty with the ball.  Both wear jersey #4.   Each leads his team in scoring.    Paschall is the better shooter, Yarbrough the better rebounder.

Fordham struck first, jumping (maybe hopping) to a 12-0 lead.  Jim “The Safecracker” Crews turned a few dials and went to his Stability Team — Austin McBroom and Mike Crawford — and order was restored for the time being.   Two mini-droughts in the second half and too many empty possessions doomed the Billikens to an 83-65 loss.

Jerry Falwell Scoreboard

Any loss to an 0-9 (conference) team is not going to count as a moral victory.  In the first half, when SLU came from 12-0 down to stabilize at 20-18 it looked as though a roadie was well within reach.  But the Bills had given the Rams and their fans and glimpse of what was possible — a rare and precious win in a basketball game with referees and uniforms and everything — and hope sprung eternal.

SLU falls to 2-8 in the Atlantic 10, and 4-4 in moral victories.

Lineups

Starters:

  • Marcus Bartley
  • Davell Roby
  • Ash Yacoubou
  • Milik Yarbrough
  • Austin Gillmann

Minutes Distribution (non-starters in Bold):

      1. Roby (29)
      2. Austin McBroom (27)
      3. Yacoubou (25)
      4. Mike Crawford (24)
      5. Gillmann (20)
      6. Yarbrough (19)
      7. Brett Jolly (16)
      8. Bartley (13)
      9. Reggie Agbeko (13)
      10. John Manning (8)
      11. Miles Reynolds (6)
      12. Tanner Lancona (0)

The overtime and the injury bring us back to the days early this season where everyone who played went for double-digit minutes.   The  missing Manning’s minutes went mainly to Miles Reynolds.

Four Factors

This is about as thorough a drubbing in the Four Factors as we have seen this year.  SLU shot the ball pretty well but did not keep pace with Fordham otherwise.

Leverage

Data www.kenpom.com
Data www.kenpom.com

Most of the Medium-High leverage in this game  came in the first half, and all the High leverage was at the start of the second half, when SLU hit the first two baskets to tie the game at 33.  Fumbling offense led to porous defense, and the rout was on.

SLU Player Stats

(Definitions at the bottom of the post)

Data www.kenpom.com
Data www.kenpom.com
  •  If Roby continues to pace the team in GmSc/Min, I am going to have to check the WAB supercomputer for North Korean cyberprints.  16 points on 9 shots is downright efficient, and he is throwing in enough other treats — 2 rebounds, 3 assists — to offset some of his tricks (3 turnovers, 4 fouls).
  • Mike Crawford provided stability and shooting off the bench, and also turnovers and fouls
  • McBroom was a stabilizing force in the first half, and ratcheted up his shots into double-digits.  From Game One it looked like a sure bet he would lead the team in shots taken but the Ys men have overtaken him.
  • Bad game for Yacoubou.  Ten points on ten shots, and 5 turnovers.  He carried much of the load in trying to defend Paschall, who seems to favor his perimeter game.
  • Five rebounds from Gillmann is what passes for a highlight in this section
  • Stinker from Yarbrough, with foul trouble and little in the way of production

Summary

 Lousy game, lousy result.  The best we can muster is the team was able to check out NYC and tiny Rose Hill Arena, and get started with some healthy resentment towards the Rams and their freshman.  No matter how high SLU is riding the next time they return, the memory of this loss should serve as a harsh reminder that any team is dangerous at home.

—————————————————————————–————–————–

AdjGS:  variation on the Game Score metric created by John Hollinger, detailed here.  Hollinger’s original formula is Adjusted to reallocate the points in the game by ratio of the player’s overall impact.  Credit to the team at Rock M Nation for this improvement.

True Shooting %:  Per Basketball Reference, true shooting percentage is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.

Leverage:  Per Ken Pomeroymeasures how much is at stake on a particular possession.  Leverage is not based on what happened during the possession, but is the range of win probability based on what could have happened.  Learn more here.

DNP-CD:  Did Not Play – Coach’s Decision.  Healthy and otherwise eligible player who did not see any action in the game.

SLU 68, Saint Joseph’s 61 (OT): Game Twenty Two

Hey.  I don’t know about you, but I’m feeling Twenty Two. Everything will be alright. — Taylor Swift

The season turned twenty-two with #254 SLU beating #148 Saint Joseph’s in an entertaining and informative overtime contest.  Maybe, just maybe everything will be alright.

Jerry Falwell Scoreboard

V, V, Victory.

Lineups

An unexpected and unfortunate change in the starting lineup: Gilllmann in for the injured Manning.  Put very ominously on twitter.

Starters:  Bartley, Roby, Yacoubou, Yarbrough, Gillmann Minutes Distribution (non-starters in Bold):

      1. Yarbrough (41)
      2. Yacoubou (35)
      3. Bartley (34)
      4. Roby (29)
      5. Gillmann (19)
      6. Reggie Agbeko (16)
      7. Miles Reynolds, Mike Crawford (14)
      8. Brett Jolly (13)
      9. Austin McBroom (10)
      10. Tanner Lancona, John Manning (0)

The overtime and the injury bring us back to the days early this season where everyone who played went for double-digit minutes.   The  missing Manning’s minutes went mainly to Miles Reynolds.

Four Factors

These Factors look suspiciously like those of the last game against UMass, particularly the Bills getting man-handled on the boards.  This time, the smaller lineup was able to use active hands to force 17 Hawk turnovers (mmm….delicious) and come out on top.

Leverage

Data www.kenpom.com
Data www.kenpom.com

25 minutes of High Leverage + overtime breaks the scale here.  The young Billikens logged big minutes in a game where every possession counted, and got the win.

SLU Player Stats

(Definitions at the bottom of the post)

Data www.kenpom.com
Data www.kenpom.com
  • Incredibly efficient and effective game from Ash Yacoubou, playing big minutes and carrying the offense, yet exceeding his points in AdjGS by chipping in 6 rebounds and 2 steals.
  • Reynolds continues to pinball his way to the foul line
  • SLU is now 1-0 in games where Roby has more steals (3) than fouls (2)
  • Yarbrough came back from a very bad UMass game to find some room to operate: 12 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 steals
  • Bartley played a solid floor game while logging big minutes
  • Negative production from a few players but not much of an overall drag

Summary

Except for the outcome, this game is a virtual carbon copy of the last.  The Safecracker had (got?) to try a few different small ball lineups with Manning out, and the team got to learn some lessons without losing.   This up-and-down team has now turned in two solid games in a row, perhaps for the first time this conference season.

—————————————————————————–————–————–

AdjGS:  variation on the Game Score metric created by John Hollinger, detailed here.  Hollinger’s original formula is Adjusted to reallocate the points in the game by ratio of the player’s overall impact.  Credit to the team at Rock M Nation for this improvement.

True Shooting %:  Per Basketball Reference, true shooting percentage is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.

Leverage:  Per Ken Pomeroymeasures how much is at stake on a particular possession.  Leverage is not based on what happened during the possession, but is the range of win probability based on what could have happened.  Learn more here.

DNP-CD:  Did Not Play – Coach’s Decision.  Healthy and otherwise eligible player who did not see any action in the game.

UMass 60, SLU 56: Game Twenty-One

How could I possibly know what I want when I was only Twenty-One?  I see plenty of clothes that I like but I won’t go anywhere nice for awhile… — Sinead O’Connor

The Billikens, coming in to this game under .500 and rated #252 in the country, won’t go anywhere nice for awhile.   The NCAA, NIT, CBK and CBI are all down the road a fair piece.  UMass came into this one rated #113, but off to a solid 4-3 start in the conference race including wins over contenders Dayton and Rhode Island.

UMass controlled the Offensive glass and held a block party at Chaifetz Arena to escape with a 60-56 road win, sending SLU to its fourth straight loss and dropping them to 9-11 overall and 1-7 in the A-10.

Jerry Falwell Scoreboard

Given UMass’ recent signs of life, their superior size and experience, and the fact that this game was played within a narrow margin to the final minute, this qualifies as a moral victory.  SLU stands at 4-3 in its bid for a moral majority.

Lineups

Starters: Bartley, Roby, Yacoubou, Yarbrough, Manning

Seven straight for this group.  Nothing to see here.

Minutes Distribution (non-starters in Bold):

  1. Austin McBroom (33)
  2. Roby (31)
  3. Yarbrough (29)
  4. Yacoubou (25)
  5. Mike Crawford (23)
  6. Manning (20)
  7. Austin Gillmann (16)
  8. Reggie Agbeko (10)
  9. Bartley (9)
  10. Brett Jolly (4)
  11. Tanner Lancona, Miles Reynolds (0)

It has been a tough year for Tanner Lancona.  He opened the season as a starter in the role of a stretch four, but has not shown the ability to stretch (5% from three) nor to hold down the four (Miles Reynolds rebounds at a higher rate).  And so he has sat for the past three games.   I expect there will be more chances for the 6’8″ 230 lb junior, but only the Safecracker knows how many more.

Miles Reynolds, in very limited playing time, has shown a knack for getting to the foul line (14-18 FTs against NC A&T, for instance) but has not distinguished himself in any other facet.  He has shown active hands on defense (3.2 steal rate leads the team) and hands of stone on offense (8% from three; 23% from two).   I have to believe there is some version of a hellacious press in our future, where Roby and Reynolds are reeking havoc in the backcourt.  May that day come soon.

Four Factors

 

The Factors point to the Billikens being out-sized and out-muscled in this one, as the Minutemen controlled the offensive glass.  Not pictures is the block party they held (7 blocked shots) to establish complete control of the paint.  This was as solid a game as SLU has played all year, but the UMass big men carried the day.

Leverage

Data www.kenpom.com
Data www.kenpom.com

Thirty-six of the games forty minutes were played in Medium-High leverage or above.  This game was played in a narrow fourteen point window (SJU’s biggest lead was 9; SLU’s was 5) and was in doubt down to the final minute.

SLU Player Stats

(Definitions at the bottom of the post)

Data www.kenpom.com
Data www.kenpom.com
  • Mike Crawford did his best Vinny Johnson imitation, coming off the bench firing away
  • Roby continues to warm up to the WAB supercomputer, and is even starting to grow on the refs a bit.  This was his first foul-less game of the season.
  • Austin Gillmann has shown flashes of being able to replace some of the perimeter 5 play Rob Loe was known for in his time at SLU and with the New Zealand national team.  If Gillmann can establish himself as an outside threat, that can invert the defense and give Yarbrough and Yacoubou room to operate down low.  Again, the the future.
  • Yarbrough put up a forgettable (memorable?) 2-15, but scraped enough other contributions to stay on the positive axis.  If SLU cannot adjust to other team’s ability to focus 6’8″, 6’9″ and 6’10” defenders on Yarbrough, he is going to keep hitting his head on branches like this.
  • McBroom ran the show with Bartley channeling Roby in foul trouble.  Five assists offset by four turnovers and a quiet shooting night.
  • Also a quiet night for Yacoubou, making me wonder if the Safecracker has instructed his tandem of junior guards to work on getting shots for their callow teammates, to season them for the climb next year.

Summary

UMass has played at a fast pace the past several years under Derek Kellogg, but this edition relies more on size than speed.  The Bills slowed them down even more than normal, and held them  but could not finish possessions by securing defensive rebounds.  The Ys Men were held under wraps leading to another loss.

—————————————————————————–

AdjGS:  variation on the Game Score metric created by John Hollinger, detailed here.  Hollinger’s original formula is Adjusted to reallocate the points in the game by ratio of the player’s overall impact.  Credit to the team at Rock M Nation for this improvement.

True Shooting %:  Per Basketball Reference, true shooting percentage is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.

Leverage:  Per Ken Pomeroymeasures how much is at stake on a particular possession.  Leverage is not based on what happened during the possession, but is the range of win probability based on what could have happened.  Learn more here.

DNP-CD:  Did Not Play – Coach’s Decision.  Healthy and otherwise eligible player who did not see any action in the game.