UNC-Greensboro is now in the field of 64, seeking their first appearance in the Sweet Sixteen since the field first expanded to 64 in 1985.
Loyola-Chicago won the Missouri Valley final on Sunday, dispatching Illinois St handily. The Ramblers, however, made the Sweet Sixteen back in 1985 and are therefore ineligible for Never Been Kissed consideration.
Tonight, Northeastern looks to punch their ticket as they take on College of Charleston in the CAA final. KenPom has Northeastern as a very slight favorite to win (51%), though Charleston swept the Huskies during the regular year.
South Dakota takes on South Dakota St for the Summit League crown. They split the regular-season meetings, and KenPom favors South Dakota (55%). State is listed as a 13-seed by BracketMatrix by virtue of holding the #1 seed in the tournament. Should South Dakota prevail, we will see if their superior computer ranking allows them to grab a 12 or better.
NBK standings through 3/5. Data provided by Basketball Reference and kenpom.com.
Update on the teams we are tracking through the NBK: Never Been Kissed. These teams have not made the Sweet Sixteen since the tournament was expanded to 64 teams back in 1985. With no better than a 6-seed projected, odds are firmly against this group graduating any members this year.
Good luck to UNC-Greensboro in the Southern Conference final tonight.
NBK Standings. Data courtesy basketballreference.com and kenpom.com.
March Madness is upon us, with one week to go until Selection Sunday and “Champ Week” (what a horrible name) getting in the swing.
Ken Pomeroy has tweeted conference tournament odds for all but one conference — the American wraps up play today with Cincy and Wichita St vying for the #1 seed.
Here’s how all that affects those teams looking to make the Sweet Sixteen for the first time ever (or at least since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985). These teams have Never Been Kissed.
NBK through 3/3. Data courtesy basketballreference.com and kenpom.com
Vermont stands the best chance of winning their conference tournament (75%), followed not too far behind by Bucknell (69%)
Nebraska lost to Michigan in their Big 10 tournament opener, and looks at this point like a sure bet to be NIT-bound. The Huskers one-point loss to Kansas in December will haunt their offseason. At the time the close loss seemed indicative that Kansas would be lousy; instead it turns out Nebraska was pretty good and Kansas was Kansas.
In happier news, Murray St. took care of business and won the Ohio Valley Conference tournament, beating Belmont to avenge their last loss. The Racers go into the NCAA tournament on a 13-game winning streak.
Norhern Kentucky stumbled out of the gate in the Horizon tournament, losing by nine to putrid Cleveland St (#317 KenPom).
Middle Tennessee stumbled this week as well, losing their final regular season game to Marshall. They still remain a strong favorite to win the C-USA tournament (42%) and an outside shot of securing an at-large berth (#44 KenPom)
It’s that time of year where we track the hopes and dreams of college basketball programs who have never made it to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament, never made the Sweet Sixteen, in other words Never Been Kissed (NBK).
Last year we watched South Carolina go from the NBK all the way to the Final Four. We watched Northwestern make the tournament for the first time ever (never been..thumb-warred?), win a game, and grab all the preseason NBK buzz with a #18 KenPom ranking in the preseason. A lethargic, sub-.500 season (15-16) leaves them out of the NBK entirely.
TCU has a great offense, and also has a great offense. Houston features a more balanced ledger and should give Cincinnati and Wichita St a run in the American conference tournament. Creighton has been up and down of late but it coming off a big home OT win over #1 Villanova. Virginia Tech is two more sweat-soaked, discarded Buzz Williams shirts from beating Duke on ESPN.
Middle Tennessee has dominated the C-USA and lead the way for the mid-majors. Nebraska and Boise St are currently on the outside looking in, but remain solidly in the conversation and hungry for case-making wins.
NBK Standings 2/26
My alma mater Saint Louis University (SLU), for whom the NBK was created, lost four players in a Title IX scandal and are not in the Top 100. The 16×18 Society mourns.
<a few weeks into the season and I realize I never hit Publish on this. Enjoy.>
As the leaves turn brilliant shades of amber and goldenrod , and daylight savings time serves to brighten our mornings and darken our afternoons, we turn our attention to the college basketball season. The SLU women open Friday, Nov 10 at the Indiana State Sycamores, hoping to build on back-to-back 25-win seasons and get to the NCAA tournament for the first time ever.
Returning Players in Bold.
5. Katie Paganelli
Pags made a lot of threes (2nd all-time), shot a high percentage from the foul line (78%), and was a ball-hawking defender (9th all-time in steals) for the 2006-10 squads. She grabbed the first rebound in Chaifetz Arena history.
4. Maddison Gits
This returning senior is a robust rebounder, a stout shot-blocker, and cash money from the line (84% last year).
3. Jackie Kemph
The reigning two-time Player of the Year in the Atlantic 10 Conference conference is already the all-time leader in steals, and will become top scorer replacing…
2. Sadie Stipanovich
Stipo finished her career last year as the school’s all-time leader in scoring, 2nd all-time in rebounds, 3rd in blocks, and 8th in free throw percentage (75.7%).
1. Amanda Kemezsys
Kemezsys had a stellar senior campaign, shooting 50% from the field, 70% from the line, pulling down 9.1 rebounds per contest including 19 and 18 board efforts.
Like any proxy composite measure for talent, Average Game Score per Minute has its share of limitations. Among them are:
Tempo Bias — today’s Billikens teams seem to play at a faster pace than in years past, skewing counting stats
Limited visibility to “D” — we have steals, defensive rebounds and blocks, only a sliver of what is required and useful on defense
Made for Dudes — the GameScore formula was created for the Men’s game and the relative importance of different stats likely could use tuning for the way the Women’s game is played
Arbitrary Date Range — with data only dating back to 2010-11, we have Kameszsys’ great senior year unburdened by her somewhat-less brilliant first three campaigns
No adjustments for strength of opponent — 20 & 10 against an NCAA tournament team should count more than 20 & 10 in an early-season tune-up
As more data comes available we will look for opportunities to refine and update these ratings.
With college basketball season six weeks away, let’s take a look to see where the returning SLU players rank in Game Score per Minute relative to recent history.
If anyone has access to electronic box scores prior to 2011, let me know and I will expand the comparison. Like me, you are probably wondering how Donnie Dobbs stacks up against Grandy Glaze, and won’t rest until the matter is settled.
It has been a rough 48 hours for Stephen F. Austin. On Sunday, the Lumberjacks were less than a second away from advancing to their first-ever Sweet Sixteen and graduating from the ranks of the Never Been Kissed, when a man named Pfleugger from Notre Dame tipped it in and sent them home.
Then Tuesday, their coach Brad Underwood bolted for Oklahoma State in the same capacity.
Middle Tennessee‘s demise was not so sudden. The Blue Raiders hung with Syracuse for a half, trailing only 30-27 after twenty minutes, but spent the second half chasing and lost by 25. They will be remembered for a long time for their first round upset of mighty Michigan State, but remain NBK.
Hawai’i was also close for a half, down just one to Maryland, and faded in the end. Stefan Jankovich was blocked on a driving attempt — laying up when he should have been dunking — and the rout was on. The Rainbow Warriors will be an interesting team to watch this off-season, as impending NCAA sanctions loom for next year, rendering all players free agents and able to transfer and be eligible immediately.
Never Been Kissed rankings, after all teams have been eliminated
The kissed get kissier. Here are this year’s Sweet Sixteen schools, in order of number of Sweet Sixteens since 1985:
There are 351 schools competing in NCAA Division I basketball this year.
In the 31 NCAA tournaments since the field was first expanded to 64 teams back in 1985, just over one-third (122 or 35%) have made it to the Sweet Sixteen.
We devote this space at What’s a Billiken to those 239 teams chasing their first ever Sweet Sixteen, those schools who have Never Been Kissed. Our beloved Saint Louis Billikens finished well off the mark this year and fired their coach with two years remaining on his contract. The goal of reaching their first Sweet Sixteen by the school’s 200th anniversary in 2018 — the mission of the 16×18 Society — seems further away than before.
However, three schools now stand poised on the brink of fulfilling their dreams and basking in that second-weekend glow.
Through Saturday games. Final NBK rankings of 2015-16.
Stephen F. Austin stands the best chance among the three. By our estimation as well as Ken Pomeroy’s, the Lumberjacks go into today’s tilt with Notre Dame as slight favorites to advance. The elite offense of the Fighting Irish (#10 AdjO per KenPom) will be up against the Lumberjacks’ tenacious D (#11 AdjD per KenPom), so the Jacks advantage must be on the other side of the court. SFA sports a decent offense at #68, and the ND defense is mediocre at #168.
Surprisingly, Middle Tennessee has the second-best chance of continuing to breathe the rarified air. The Blue Raiders have exactly 1 win over the Top 100 this season. That win was two days ago over #5 Michigan St, slapping Sparty with the title of the best team to ever lose in the first round. MT faces Syracuse today for the right to advance to the Sweet Sixteen, in a clash of colors. This is a tough matchup for the Blue Raiders #14 three-point shooting, as the Orange is notably stingy in allowing threes (#10 in three-point percent defense, if there is indeed such a thing).
By the numbers, Hawai’i has the worst draw among the three NBKers remaining. The Maryland Terrapins were in the Top Ten much of the year and sport a roster of future pros. But the Terps went into the NCAA Tournament on something less than a roll, going 5-5 since (Denzel)Valentine’s Day. Their 5-seed was indicative of the Terps year-long resume, and emblematic the problems the committee has had in seeding the 5/12 and 4/13 spots. The Rainbow Warriors caught a break on Friday, as an inconsistent Cal Bears team came in hot but swirled in distraction. Their luck may continue with a Terps team very likely to overlook and underestimate.
Go Jacks! Go Blue Raiders! Go Bows! It’s the NBK, baby!
Yuuuuuge day for the NBK, as we continue our quest of tracking those schools who have never been to the Sweet Sixteen. The Never Been Kissed has never fared better.
Through Round One, including Friday games. Five still alive.
The bearded warriors of Stephen F. Austin looked Stephen Effing Awesome while crushing West Virginia in a dominating 70-56 win. Thomas F. Walkup was a ludicrous 19-20 from the line and bagged 33 points in total. West Virginia was led by Devin Williams with only 12 points (17 boards). We enjoy Devin Williams’ work and look forward to seeing the goggled one again next year. But today it’s Hail, Hail Lumberjacks! SFA will take on Notre Dame Sunday for the right to go to the Sweet Sixteen, and the Jacks will be favored.
Hail, Hail Hawai’i!! The Rainbow Warriors blasted California 77-66 with a balanced attack. Big West Player of the Year and Lug of the Century Stefan “Jimmy Chitwood” Jankovich kicked in 16 points and a pair of Senior guards — Quincy Smith (19) and Roderick Bobbitt (17) — were also in double figures. Glue guy Mike Thomas picked a great day to have his best effort of the year, logging 23 minutes of ruthless efficiency: 153 ORtg, 2/3 2-pointers, 1/2 3-pointers, 2/2 Free Throws, 6 reb, 1 blk, 0 TO. The islanders will take on Maryland Sunday.
While Stephen F. Austin was favored in our metrics, and Hawai’i had a strong chance given Cal’s sudden disarray, we at the NBK had no idea what Middle Tennessee was going to bring on Friday. The Blue Raiders invaded our hometown of St Louis and pillaged everyone’s bracket by upending Michigan St 90-81, leading wire-to-wire. For the Spartans, Denzel Valentine was good (13 points, 12 assists, 6 reb) and Matt Costello was great (22 pts on 9-10 from the field, 9 reb, 2 assists, a block and a steal) but overall their defense was abysmal. The BRs five starters all logged double-figure points and triple-figure Offensive Ratings. Hail, Hail the entire Middle of Tennessee! The Blue Raiders take on Syracuse in St Louis on Sunday for the right to go to the Sweet Sixteen.
We say goodbye until next year to Oregon St, Cal St Bakersfield, Green Bay, Weber St, South Dakota St and UNC Asheville. Bakersfield hung tight with Oklahoma for a bit, and South Dakota St only lost by 7, but on balance these teams maxed out.
Honorable mention to Northern Iowa, who acted like they’ve been there before because they have.
College Basketball analysis and other random tidbits
