As Championship Week (are we really calling it Champ Week) in college basketball begins, let’s check in on those schools who have never before made the second weekend of the NCAA tournament since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, not made the Sweet Sixteen, the Never Been Kissed (NBK).

Who had the worst week? Plenty of contenders for that crown of thorns. Let’s start with the Saint Louis University Billikens. The team once ranked #10 in the NET saw their NCAA chances go up in a COVIDy cloud of smoke as they lost a semifinal showdown Saturday night against St. Bonaventure. I firmly believe a SLU-VCU final in the A-10 would have led the committe to convince themselves to just take both regardless of the outcome next Sunday. We’ll never know. Instead of playing their way in or to the cusp of in, the Bills bowed to the Bonnies in a game that was never close.

Maybe Creighton had the worst week? Not so much on the court — close loss to #10 Villanova followed by a win against Butler — as off the court. Coach Greg McDermott was suspended for insensitivity and stupidity. Overwhelming Horizon tournament favorite Wright St. was eliminated, and Furman and Belmont followed them and SLU to the ignominous conference tourney exit. North Texas is not dead yet but they are sinking like a stone, with three straight losses this week, one to Marshall and a pair to UAB. Perhaps new NBK contenders will rise in these voids.

But enough doom and gloom. Whose bright side is shining brighter this week? The aforementioned Bonnies of St. Bonaventure are solidly in the NCAAs and might add an A-10 tournament title to go with their regular season belt. They are a slight favorite over VCU next Sunday.

Love the Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament final against Loyola Chicago today. The Bulldogs are underdogs vs the Ramblers but should be in the field of 68 even with a loss.

Liberty is an overwhelming favorite in the Atlanic Sun final against North Alabama, and little Winthrop is feeling good billie ray against Campbell.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com , NCAA.org, and ESPN Bracketology. For “Conf Tourney Odds” Ken Pomeroy’s conference tourney forecasts are used until the team advances to the conference tournament final, in which case the heavy-bordered cell contains the KenPom odds of winning the final itself.

Happy March, Billie heads! As the weather turns slightly less terrible and the Madness approaches, we take our first look at the prospects of the Never Been Kissed — those schools who have not been to the Sweet Sixteen in the many years since the NCAA expanded the field to 64 back in 1985. Being the year we all wore masks for ten months, 2020 yielded no graduates from the NBK ranks. Houston and Virginia Tech graduated in 2019, South Carolina busted through in 2017 all the way to the Final Four, and Dayton back in 2014.

This year’s crop is led once again by big conference hopefuls Creighton, Colorado, and Rutgers. All three look to be safely in the field heading into the final two weeks, though the Bluejays will be the only team favored to make the tournament’s second weekend. The Bonnies lead the A-10 contingent and the Mountain West vies for NBK conference of the year with Utah St, Boise St, and Colorado St all in contention.

Your Saint Louis University Billikens come in seventh in these initial rankings, but are solidly out of the NCAA picture as it stands. The Bills will need a win against UMass on Monday and a clean sweep of their A-10 games this week in Richmond just to have a chance. That would put them in the A-10 tournament championship game on Selection Sunday and give the committee something to think about.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and ESPN Bracketology, which is quite fancy this year.

Senior night at Chaifetz Arena, as the socially distanced crowd rings in March by bidding farewell to Jordan Goodwin, Hasahn French, Josh Hightower, and Javonte Perkins. Hold the phone…

👀 A message from senior Javonte Perkins 🔽 pic.twitter.com/j8Gu0gLbx7

— Saint Louis Men's Basketball (@SaintLouisMBB) February 28, 2021

Perkins is coming back for more. He and Hargrove should be a dynamic pair of scorers on the wings next year.

But still work to be done in this strange season. UMass handed SLU its last A-10 loss last season, and will look to play spoiler again as the Bills try to fight their way back to bubble contention. These Minutemen are young and box out well, and are yet another A-10 team that excels in defensive Free Throw % (#7 per Kenpom.com at 64.4%). The A-10 sports the 28th best (i.e. one of the worst) FT% overall so perhaps I should quell my surprise that all these teams are good at FT defense.

And in 6’9″ Tre Mitchell, the sixty-second men have another shot-blocking big man for French to wrestle in the low post. Wichita St transfer Noah Fernandes runs the point and Carl Pierre launches threes, not terribly effectively (31% on the year). Javohn Garcia seems to be their leader in perimeter defense, getting steals, blocking shots, and cleaning up the defensive boards. Last year’s hero Dibaji Walker is out for the rest of the season with a wrist injury.

Perk and Goodwin were particularly good the last times these teams met. French and JBJ….not so much. Maybe with Walker out of the way Linssen and French can make hay against Mitchell and Gasperini.

References

Data from Basketball Reference and Ken Pomeroy and the NCAA

Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html

Plot format by Aaron Baggett: https://baseballwithr.wordpress.com/2015/02/17/conceptualizing-the-mlb-strike-zone-using-pitchfx-data/

Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy: http://kenpom.com/

Inspiration from Rock M Nation: http://www.rockmnation.com/missouri-tigers-basketball

Team colors courtesy:

Benjamin S. Baumer and Gregory J. Matthews (2020). teamcolors: Color Palettes for Pro Sports Teams. R package version 0.0.4.

https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=teamcolors

The Billikens take to the medium lights, medium city tonight on ESPN2 at Dayton. This continues Revenge Week as the Bills look to atone for their two straight stumbles leading off conference season. Since starting 0-2 the Bills have taken care of business, reeling off four straight including a commanding win over LaSalle on Tuesday.

The first matchup between these two was a Flyer victory on January 26th, the Bills first game in a month. Goodwin and Jimerson in particular struggled for SLU, while Crutcher did a decent impression of Obi Toppin for a night and they got a boost from Brea.

SLU seeks revenge over Dayton and relief from the bubble watch, and are catching Dayton on the downswing. The Flyers have lost 3 of 4 coming in.

References

Data from Basketball Reference and Ken Pomeroy and the NCAA

Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html

Plot format by Aaron Baggett: https://baseballwithr.wordpress.com/2015/02/17/conceptualizing-the-mlb-strike-zone-using-pitchfx-data/

Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy: http://kenpom.com/

Inspiration from Rock M Nation: http://www.rockmnation.com/missouri-tigers-basketball

Team colors courtesy:

Benjamin S. Baumer and Gregory J. Matthews (2020). teamcolors: Color Palettes for Pro Sports Teams. R package version 0.0.4.

https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=teamcolors

Since stumbling out of the COVID delay gate with a pair of losses, all but erasing the goodwill built up during a succuessful non-conference run in late 2020, SLU has rebounded with a pair of home wins to even their conference record at 2-2. They travel to New York on Saturday to take on lesser set of Rams, those of Fordham. These Rams forewent (?) a non-conference season entirely and now sit at 2-10 in the conference. Oddly, their only wins have been against the teams SLU recently lost to – Dayton and LaSalle. Outside of the Eric Paschall year, the Fordham Rams have dwelt in the basement of the A-10 for quite some time, buttressed by Saint Joseph’s recent struggles.

The Rams are young and small and not deep. Lone big man Joel Soriano stands 6’11” and is a formidable rebounder and shot-blocker, continuing a string of such matchups for Hasahn French and his cohorts Martin Linssen and Jimmy Bell Jr.

SLU is gaining reputation as the hardest team in the field for the committee to judge. A loss at Fordham will make it easy, the hard way. The slate of must-win games continues.

Toughest team on the board (to evaluate). https://t.co/4JQYClPW5w

— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) February 12, 2021

References

Data from Basketball Reference and Ken Pomeroy and the NCAA

Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html

Plot format by Aaron Baggett: https://baseballwithr.wordpress.com/2015/02/17/conceptualizing-the-mlb-strike-zone-using-pitchfx-data/

Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy: http://kenpom.com/

Inspiration from Rock M Nation: http://www.rockmnation.com/missouri-tigers-basketball

The Billikens breathed some life back into their season with a win over St. Bonaventure over the weekend, and now turn their attention to the visiting Rhode Island Rams on Wednesday night at the Chaif. The Rams boast a solid defense (#35 overall in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency per KenPom) with multiple shot-blockers inside and on the wings. Hasahn French has struggled against taller opponents of late, and we’ll see if that trend continues.

On offense, the only area where Rhode Island stands out is in their ability to get to the Free Throw line. They come in #28 in FTA/FGA per KenPom, and in their best wins of the season they have gone to the stripe to beat opponents St Bonaventure (25 free throw attempts by Rhody), Seton Hall (24), and VCU (30!). Fatts Russell continues to lead the Rams along with running mate Jeremy Shephard. The senior guard duo is supported up front by big man Makhel Mitchell, 6’10” sophomore transfer from Maryland. Makhel’s brother Makhi, also transferred in from Maryland, was injured in the Western Kentucky game and is out for the remainder of the season, so another Eminem Malik Martin comes off the bench to swat shots.

SLU will be able to turn the Rams over and the more they can be handsy with the Rams without fouling the better their chances to get to .500 in the conference. Before the St. Bonaventure game I said SLU needed to win their next five in order to stay off the bubble and position themselves for a decent seed in the NCAAs and a possible first-ever Sweet Sixteen berth. I stand by that proclamation. One down, four more to go.

References

Data from Basketball Reference and Ken Pomeroy and the NCAA

Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html

Plot format by Aaron Baggett: https://baseballwithr.wordpress.com/2015/02/17/conceptualizing-the-mlb-strike-zone-using-pitchfx-data/

Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy: http://kenpom.com/

Inspiration from Rock M Nation: http://www.rockmnation.com/missouri-tigers-basketball

Saint Louis University, darlings of the NET ending 2020, have come off their COVID layoff with an extreme hangover. Consecutive losses to Dayton and LaSalle have the Bills tangled in the NET (#52 from a peak of #10) and flopping down the KenPom (#54 from a more-modest peak of #26). They sit last in the Atlantic 10 at 0-2 and host the first-place and surprising St Bonaventure Bonnies on Saturday at Chaifetz Arena. The Super Bon Bons were no one’s pick to win the A-10 this year, started their season way late due to COVID delays — they only managed two non-conference games — but have continued to win and climb the charts. They are the bizarro Billikens.

Like Dayton last week, the Bonnies have the peculiar statistical distinction of holding their opponents to a low Free Throw % (62.3%, #5 in KenPom). How that manifested itself in the Bills-Flyers game were French and Goodwin chucking a combined 4-11 from the stripe in a game SLU lost by 5.

On an individual level, SBU continues to be one of the Jalen-est schools in the country, with two on the current roster (Adaway and Shaw) following in the footsteps of Adams, Adams, and Poyser. The Bonnies are pretty well balanced, relying heavily on their starting five but spreading the load in terms of usage rate and go-to-guyness. In their only loss to Rhode Island, guard Jaren Holmes played just one minute so maybe we call him first among equals.

With both teams sporting a good mix of guards and wings, the battle down low may prove decisive. Osun Osunniyi is a terrific rebounder on both ends and a very good shot-blocker. At 6’10” he is much taller than the Bills bigs. If he imposes his will on Hasahn French and controls the paint, SLU may be forced to try to win the game from the outside. The Bills have shot reasonably well from three this year but remain reluctant to let it fly (#332 in 3PA/FGM), as are the Bonnies (#338).

SBU is loaded with Juniors, so expect them to follow up this surprising season entering 2021-22 as prohibitive favorites in the Atlantic 10.

References

Data from Basketball Reference and Ken Pomeroy and the NCAA

Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html

Plot format by Aaron Baggett: https://baseballwithr.wordpress.com/2015/02/17/conceptualizing-the-mlb-strike-zone-using-pitchfx-data/

Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy: http://kenpom.com/

Inspiration from Rock M Nation: http://www.rockmnation.com/missouri-tigers-basketball

Basketball is back! Saint Louis University men’s basketball has been shutdown for what has seemed like an eternity, last playing UMKC on December 23rd before shutting down due to COVID-19 test results, contact tracing, and more of the same. The absentee Bills have remained relevant in the hearts and minds of AP voters and come into tonight’s game ranked 22nd on the strength of their 7-1 non-conference performance. While SLU was away, the Dayton Flyers did play to the tune of seven (!) conference games. A nice OT win for the Flyers over Davidson has been more than offset by bad losses at Fordham and home to LaSalle. Last time out they were smoked by VCU 66-43 to drop to 8-4 overall, 4-3 in conference, and #85 in the KenPom.

Dayton features one of the better guard combos in the Atlantic 10 in seniors Jalen Crutcher (6’1″) and Ibi Watson (6’5″) and are balanced with a so-so offense (#79 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency per KenPom.com) and a ho-hum defense (#95 in Adj Def Eff per KP LOL). Where the Flyers REALLY excel is in the ultra-strange category of “Defensive Free Throw %”. Dayton leads the country at 60.7% per KenPom.com.

“Hold the phone, What’s a Billiken, I thought free throws were undefended.” You are correct in that statement, but holding opponents to a low FT % does appear to be a skill coached under Anthony Grant. The Flyers have improved in this category each year since Archie Miller left for Indiana:

• 2017-18 71.5% #192
• 2018-19 70.5% #161
• 2019-20 64.4% #5
• 2020-21 60.7% #1 (thru Sat 1/23)

Generally this means they don’t foul guards and they do foul bigs, a very vulnerable spot for SLU with Hasahn French laying bricks (1-7 this year and only about 33% for his career). Goodwin has been a sub-standard free throw shooter but this year is up to 71%.

Chase Johnson is the Dayton equivalent of SLU’s Eliot Welmer – he’s left the Flyer program after five games this season due to injury concerns, and has only played 19 games total between Florida and Dayton over four years. He retains at least one year of eligibility so we’ll wish him well and see if he resurfaces next year.

The two places where Dayton appears most vulnerable look like areas that SLU can exploit. Dayton turns the ball over quite a bit (#308 in Turnover % per KenPom.com) and gives up quite a few offensive rebounds (#283 in keeping opponents off the Offensive glass). Let’s count SLU free throw possessions as turnovers committed, and SLU offensive rebounds as turnovers forced, and see if the Billikens can win the adjusted amalgamated TO battle (AATOB) and the game to take a commanding lead in the Atlantic 10 at 1-0 🙂

References

Data from Basketball Reference and Ken Pomeroy

Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html

Plot format by Aaron Baggett: https://baseballwithr.wordpress.com/2015/02/17/conceptualizing-the-mlb-strike-zone-using-pitchfx-data/

Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy: http://kenpom.com/

Inspiration from Rock M Nation: http://www.rockmnation.com/missouri-tigers-basketball

With Saint Louis University on continued COVID-19 hiatus, we take a look at Missouri @ Mississipi St.

Mizzou hits the road to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs tonight 1/5, with both teams 1-1 in the SEC, each having opened up conference play with a Home loss and a Road win. With Mizzou #40 and MSU #75 in the KenPom ratings, this game is just about dead even by the math.

Like the last two Mizzou opponents Tennessee and Arkansas, Mississippi St is very good on the offensive boards (#8). The Tigers held their own with the Vols but were absolutely creamed by the Hogs on their offensive glass. So maybe that doesn’t matter. Shrug emoji.

The Bulldogs are young and tall (#299 in Experience and #6 in Average Height) and went 2-OT earlier this week with similarly configured Kentucky (#339 in Experience, # 5 Average Height).

The Bulldogs feature three high-volume three-point shooters in sophomore D.J. Stewart Jr. (44% from three), sophomore Iverson Molinar (50%) off the bench, and redshirt senior Jalen Johnson (40%). Readers of this space will remember Johnson from his two years with Saint Louis University. He sat out a transfer year before running with Louisiana Lafayette last year. The Baton Rouge native was more of a mid-range guy with SLU, then handled the ball a lot last year for the Rajun Cajuns (to not-so-great effect); he has broken into the MSU starting lineup of late as a 3-and-D specialist.

Mizzou continues to rely heavily on the driving and foulability of Xavier Pinson, as well as Tilmon and Mitchell Smith’s abilities to battle down low. The Tigers are rated very highly in both the NET and the human polls, though KenPom is not as impressed. Sam Snelling of Rock M Nation pointed out that pre-season expectations and last year’s results are dragging down Mizzou to this point. His reasoning is sound. This feels like the kind of game a cohesive veteran team wins. Don’t help off the shooters and secure the defensive boards, Pinson makes ten free throws and it’s a happy flight home.

As I prepared for this post Saint Louis University announced that the men’s basketball program is on pause for two weeks following positive COVID-19 tests in the program Dec 28th. And tonight’s scheduled conference opener vs Duquesne is postponed. Here’s what I would have said about it…

SLU opens Atlantic 10 play tonight at home vs Duquesne. The Dukes are just getting re-started this year, going 1-1 in late November early December before shutting down for most of Dec. Michael Hughes, Marcus Weathers, and Tavian Dunn-Martin are the seniors and take most of the shots. Sincere Carry runs the offense in all earnestness and serves as another guy who gets to the line at a high rate — the Dukes are #7 in the country in FTA/FGA per Kenpom.com. The Dukes lead the country in the their short season in defensive FT%, which likely means SLUs bigs will be wearing a path to the stripe.

From the Bills perspective, SLU shook off a post-Minnesota hangover in time to beat UMKC last Wednesday night. SLU controlled the boards and turned the Roos over 14 times to overcome a poor FT-shooting night — one of the few so far this season, after stinking it up from the line all last year.

---

Since SLU vs Duquesne is off, let’s take a look at the conference opener for my other favorite team. Mizzou takes on Tennessee in a battle of early favorites for the SEC crown. Like Duquesne above, Tennessee has a slow start to the season, not playing any November games and now 6-0 in December. The Vols are #8 KenPom and #7 in the human poll. Mizzou is hugely overrated, coming in at just #40 KenPom but #12 by the humans.

Tennessee is very good on the Offensive Boards, both acquiring and preventing (#13 both on KenPom), and has a number of shot blockers (#7 KenPom). They play slow and Mizzou is not much of a running team either, so expect this to be a half-court slugfest.

To say Jaden Springer is off to a good start is to significantly undersell the contributions of the 6’4″ freshman thus far. He’s shooting it at a .529/.667/.750 while blocking shots and getting to the line at a high rate. All off the bench. Victor Bailey Jr. has been a nice addition as well, as the Oregon 6’4″ junior transfer has shot it well at a high usage rate. I’m expecting we will see a lot of Dru Smith on Bailey and Springer. John Fulkerson is back for a fifth year, and his five turnovers kept Mizzou within shouting distance in last year’s game. We’ll see if Tilmon or Mitchell Smith can force more. EJ Anosike is a grad transfer from Sacred Heart and a good rebounder, and Keon Johnson is the big freshman guard leading the bench mob with Springer. So far Johnson has shot is about as well as Yves Pons, so their contributions will come from somewhere other than made shots.

Mizzou really does not have great talent compared to teams of the past, but all of these guys seems to be getting better. And the rise of guys like Xavier Pinson and Parker Braun means that less is required of Kobe Brown (no relation) and Javon Pickett. Team Scrawn for more and better options on offense; Team Brawn to get on the boards and play physical defense.