In this space we track the fate of the Never Been Kissed, those schools that have not made the Sweet Sixteen of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament in all the years since the field was first expanded to 64 teams back in 1985. Saturday night, the Saint Peter’s Peacocks advanced to their first Sweet Sixteen in school history, upsetting fellow NBK hopeful Murray St 70-60. This game was tight throughout the first half, the Peacocks took control right out of the break, staking a ten-point lead three minutes into the second half and playing the Racers to a draw until the final buzzer.

KC Ndefo was sensational in this one, with 17 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists and 6 big blocks. In our preview, we pointed out problems the Peacock front court has had this season controlling their turnovers in the front court — Ndefo had just three himself and as a team Saint Peter’s committed only ten. That translates to 15.6% of their possessions, down from their average of 20.6%. And again Doug Edert aka The Mustachioed Microwave came up huge in key moments down the stretch, scoring ten straight — 3 FTs, two jumpers assisted by Ndefo, and a huge 3-pointer assited by Fousseyni Drame. By the time he was done, there were just 3:00 left and Saint Peter’s had an 88.3% chance of making the Sweet Sixteen.

SUNDAY
NBK current #2 TCU (28%) vs Arizona in the nightcap — 8:40 PM CDT on CBS. The Horned Frogs last good run through the NCAA tournament was in 1967-68, when they made it to the Regional Final under Johnny Swaim, falling to a powerhouse Houston team featuring Elvin Hayes and Don Chaney.

Arizona
The Arizona Wildcats of 2021-22 are not the Houston Cougars of 1967-68, but entered the tournament as the overall #2 behind #1 Gonzaga, and rolled through their first round matchup with 16-seed Wright St. Tommy Lloyd, as longtime assistant at Gonzaga under Mark Few, took over this year from noted shoe enthusiast Sean Miller. And the results have been instantaneous and startling. The rebuilt Wildcats are one of only four schools with Top 20 KenPom ratings in both Adjusted Offense and Adjusted Defense (Gonzaga, Houston, Baylor – RIP). Arizona is young (near the bottom in Experience), huge (#2 in Average Height), and they share the ball effectively (also #2 in Assists Per Field Goals Made). They are also strong Offensive Rebounders (#15), however TCU is #1 in the same category. Strength on strength.

With all due respect to Oumar Ballo and Kim Aiken Jr — highly productive in limited roles — this edition is led by 6’10” Azoulas Tubelis and 7’0″ Christian Koloko down low, and the immaculate 6’6″ Bennedict Mathurin on the wing. Koloko dominated the overwhelmed Raiders — 17 points, 13 rebounds, 6 assists, 5 blocks — such that a decent performance Tubelis — 13 points, 5 rebounds but 3 turnovers — and a relative stinker from Mathurin — 4 turnovers — were moot. Pelle Larsson, Justin Kier, and Dalen Terry had above-average games vers Wright St, while normal starting PG Kerr Kriisa remained out since the Pac-12 Tournament.

Seeing how the current Big Three ranks with NBA talent like Lauri Markkanen and Aaron Gordon, and the “role players” are all better than the average historical Wildcat, the Horned Frogs task looks daunting.

TCU
TCU is very good at what is quickly becoming a dying art form: Offensive Rebounding. The Horned Frogs are #1 in the country in OR%, retrieving a healthy 37.8% of their own misses. However, that percent represents a significant step down from past seasons and projects to be the lowest in the KenPom era. TCU has a good defense, solid in all areas, and they have weathered a tough schedule (#9 overall), particularly in Feb/March.

Their top five — Emanuel Miller, Eddie Lampkin Jr, Chuck O’Bannon Jr, Mike Miles, and Damion Baugh — form a tight fist of productivity best described as “not quite to the level of Desomnd Bane, but still pretty good”. Xavier Cork, Francisco Farabello, and Micah Peavy are solid contributors off the bench.

TCU’s path to victory, their road to the Sweet Sixteen, their route to NBK Graduation, appears to be paved with slowing things down and getting every single rebound. They’ll again need to be clicking on at least 4 of 5 cylinders to beat mighty Arizona.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and Basketball Reference and RealGM.com
Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here
Plot format by Aaron Baggett
Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy
Inspiration from Rock M Nation

Team colors courtesy:
Benjamin S. Baumer and Gregory J. Matthews (2020). teamcolors: Color Palettes for Pro Sports Teams. R package version 0.0.4.

We began the tournament with 23 Never Been Kissed (NBK) hopefuls. Just three survived and advanced to the Round of 32. Two of those three — Murray St. and Saint Peter’s — square off today for a berth in the Sweet Sixteen, the first in either school’s history. Before we dive deeply into this historic matchup, we look back at Friday’s games with NBK ramifications.

FRIDAY
TCU thumped Seton Hall 69-42 in a game that was all but decided by halftime. We’ll take a closer look at TCU and their chances against Arizona in this space on Sunday morning.
Colgate gave Wisconsin all they could handle and more, losing 67-60 in a game that was much closer than the final score suggests. The Raiders battled a raucous and partisan Milwaukee crowd, and held a 52-50 lead with under nine minutes to play. The Badgers’ Johnny Davis remembered he was a first-team All-American, and Wisconsin rode the frenzied crowd to a 10-0 run and the win.
By contrast, Cal St Fullerton put up little resistance to mighty Duke, falling 78-61. In Coach K’s final tournament, Duke looks like a great team for about 25 minutes each game and a Horizon League contender the other 15. Next up for the Blue Devils is Michigan St.
Delaware was dispatched by Villanova 80-60, as the Fightin’ Bidens ran out of gas late in the first half.
Jacksonville St lost to Auburn 80-61. Similar to Delaware, they were able to slow things down and keep pace with the Tigers for much of the first half (~60 possession pace). But Auburn cranked things up to 80 possession level early in the second and ran away with it.
Montana St were annihilated by Texas Tech 97-62, the Red Raiders delivering the most dominant performance thus far. Tech hangs their hat on their #1 KenPom Defense, and in this one added six players in double-figures scoring.
Yale lost to Purdue 78-56 as the multi-cultural duo of Jaden Ivey and Zach Edey were well beyond Ivy (sp) League levels.
Wright St lost to Arizona 87-70, as these Raiders had nothing for the surging Wildcats. Arizona will look to end another team’s NBK aspirations when they take on TCU on Sunday.

SATURDAY
It’s #1 Murray St (78%) vs #3 Saint Peter’s (22%) — 6:45 PM CDT on CBS — to graduate from the list of the Never Been Kissed once and forever. We’ll have to fire up the NBK supercomputer and go through the annals to see if we’ve ever had anyone with a 78% chance of making it.

Let’s take a closer look at Saturday’s game in typical Whatsabilliken.com fashion, by comparing today’s players with those in recent school history.

Murray State
Ja Morant is currently lighting up the NBA as the breakout star of the Memphis Grizzlies, second in the West and poised for a deep run in this year’s playoffs. Morant spent two years at Murray St, both ending in OVC tournament titles and NCAA appearances, plus a stomping of Marquette to top things off. He has not forgotten his time in Murray, KY. After Saint Peter’s beat Kentucky in a historic upset Thursday night, dodging a potential second-round date with the Racers, Morant took to Twitter to troll.

a team from kentucky won today 👀🙌🏽🐎

— Ja Morant (@JaMorant) March 18, 2022

Anyway, back to the Racers of today. On Thursday, the San Fancisco Dons and Jamaree Boyea pushed Murray St to overtime, largely on the brilliance of Boyea but also by containing KJ Williams down low. Normally 18 points and 7 rebounds are nothing to sneeze at, but as you can see below overall Williams was well below his usual outstanding production, and he’s the best non-Morant player Murray St has seen of late. Stepping into the void was Jordan Skipper-Brown, proving to the Dons that he IS a war-time consigliari by going for 12 points, 10 rebounds in just 17 minutes of action. His Gold Dot for the game was Beyond-Morant-level good.

Saint Peter’s
The Peacocks do not feature any NBA-caliber players in their recent past, and Bacon benefits somewhat in that we can only count his stellar senior season. A very good player is Ryan Bacon from Maplewood, NJ; a Saint Peter’s Hall of Famer Class of 2016, and quite mouth-watering when you sit down to think abou it. Marvin Dominique transferred to Saint Peter’s after two quiet years at Fordham, and thrived in his two MAAC campaigns. How many Peacocks have been drafted by the NBA ever? Our guess would have been two, but the correct answer is fourteen!

Turning to today’s ‘Cocks, KC Ndelfo has been stalwart on the Defensive boards and as a Shot-blocker for Saint Peter’s in his four seasons. He struggled hard Thursday against Kentucky’s front court — 7 points, 3 rebounds, 5 turnovers — and Oumar Diahame & Isiah Dasher were even worse in their combined 26 torpedoing minutes. Fortunately, Darryl Banks III was sensational (27 points, just 3 turnovers), Hassan Drame was versatile (7 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, a block and a steal), and Jaylen Murray helped contain Kentucky’s backcourt.

But the shooting of Doug Edert carried the Cocks to round two and within shouting distance of the Sweet Sixteen. The Junior poured in 20 points in just 25 minutes, including 8-8 from the free-throw line and 2-2 from distance. His performance was figuratively off-the-charts.

Both Murray St and Saint Peter’s play solid defense, but the Racers have a significant edge on offense. Pay close attention to Turnovers, particularly in the front court where the Peacocks particularly struggle.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and Basketball Reference and RealGM.com
Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here
Plot format by Aaron Baggett
Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy
Inspiration from Rock M Nation
Team colors courtesy:
Benjamin S. Baumer and Gregory J. Matthews (2020). teamcolors: Color Palettes for Pro Sports Teams. R package version 0.0.4.

Round one is underway, and it’s been a doozy. Below we recap Thursday’s action and look ahead to the weekend from the standpoint of the Never Been Kissed (NBK) — our tagline for those schools who have never made it to the Sweet Sixteen in all the years since the NCAA first expanded the D1 Men’s tournament to 64 teams back in 1985.

THURSDAY

Saint Peter’s beat Kentucky in Overtime! <Double-checks> This is not a misprint. Saint Peter’s beat Kentucky. We believe this is the tenth time a 15-seed has beaten a 2-seed, and this one was an extremely entertaining bracket-breaker. Kellan Grady from Kentucky continued a rough week during which he appeared to be a double-agent sent by Dayton to torpedo the Wildcats’ chances. We are not reporting this — just speculating.
Murray St beat fellow NBKer San Francisco also in overtime 92-87. Before this one even tipped off, the NBK was assured of having a graduate this year, by virtue of Saint Peter’s booting Kentucky from this pod containing 3 of 4 NBKers. The NBK studio show — not a real thing — will hereby move to Indianapolis for Saturday’s GameDay telecast.
Colorado St lost to Michigan 75-63. After leading the entire first half and draining 8 of 9 from three, the Rams faltered in the second half and their NBK graduation dreams vanish.
Vermont lost Arkansas 75-71 as the Hogs’ JD Notae took over in the second half to push his team to victory and end an impressive Catamounts season.
Akron lost to UCLA 57-53, giving up a decisive 15-2 run by Tyger Campbell and the Bruins in the last five minutes.
South Dakota St were victims of Providence 66-57.
Boise St lost to Memphis 64-53. Rough day for the Mountain West – only Saint Mary’s remains after day one — Wyoming was eliminated in the First Four and BSU and SDSU bowed out without putting up much of a fight.
Longwood lost to Tennessee 88-56. Impressive win by a hot Vols squad.
Norfolk St was mauled by Baylor 85-49. Will I ever get over The Sovereign State of Norfolk beating 30-4 Mizzou? It’s been ten years since 2012, and given how happy I am today to see this beating administered by Baylor, I don’t see a clear path to forgiveness in the near future. So long Spartans.
Georgia St vs Gonzaga in a 16/1. Holy smokes this one was tied 54-54 with just 13:00 remaining, but foul trouble and injury drained the Panthers. Drew Timme became unstoppable and Chet Holmgren did all the dirty work so the Bulldogs could pull away 85-63.
Texas Southern crushed by Kansas 83-56. UMBC stands alone, at least for one more day.

Elsewhere, North Carolina demolished Marquette and St Mary’s creamed Indiana. Both were moderate favorites but really put the hammer down. UConn fell to New Mexico St (NBK Class of 1992).

Keegan Murray and Iowa were eliminated on Thursday, in a 5/12 upset to Richmond (NBK Class of 1988). All the “sweet-shooting wing” buzz around NBA prospects seems to be focused on whether Jabari Smith will go ahead of Holmgren, but I like Murray. Certainly some of that preference stems from The Murray Bros experience echoing the too-brief-and-weird-but fun Porter Bros era at Mizzou in the early Cuonzo Martin years. Good times.

Jamaree Bouyea did what he could to keep San Francisco‘s Sweet Sixteen hopes alive on Thursday night, driving, dishing, and draining some looooong threes, garnering KenPom Game MVP ($) honors in the losing effort. Justice Hill and his severe leg cramps and the rest of the Murray St Racers have a couple of days to recover and prepare for suprising Saint Peter’s.

His team advanced, and he too was KenPom Game MVP ($), but we fear we may be saying goodbye to Ryan Kalkenbrenner of Creighton. In the chaos of the Bluejays late charge to catch San Diego St, he crumbled in the backcourt with what looked like a major knee injury.

Farewell for sure to Oscar Tshiebwe, likely Player of the Year and Kentucky’s KenPom Game MVP ($) for Thursday. The Big O heads to the NBA after putting up 30 points and 16 rebounds in the Cats loss to NBK hopeful Saint Peter’s.

FRIDAY
Here is today’s action in the NBK. Will we get more than one graduate from this year’s group?
#3 TCU (50%) vs Seton Hall – 8:57 PM CDT on truTV
#4 Colgate (22%) vs Wisconsin – 8:50 PM CDT on TBS
#5 Cal St Fullerton (10%) vs Duke – 6:10 PM CDT on CBS
#6 Delaware (9%) vs Villanova – 1:45 PM CDT on CBS
#7 Jacksonville St (8%) vs Auburn – 11:40 AM CDT on truTV
#8 Montana St (8%) vs Texas Tech – 12:45 PM CDT on TNT
#9 Yale (12%) vs Purdue – 1 PM CDT on TBS
#10 Wright St (5%) vs Arizona – 6:27 PM on truTV

SATURDAY
We began the tournament with 23 NBK hopefuls, and the First Four whittled that down to 20. After day one of round one, only 10 remain. These NBK rankings and game odds will change and be recalculated again Saturday morning, based on Friday’s results.
Murray St (78%) vs Saint Peter’s (22%) for a berth in the Sweet Sixteen, the first in either’s history, and graduation from the list of the Never Been Kissed forever. We’ll have to fire up the NBK supercomputer and go through the annals to see if we’ve ever had anyone with a 78% chance of making it.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and Basketball Reference

In the second half of the First Four on Wednesday, Rutgers and Notre Dame battled in the game of the tournament thus far, taking it to double-overtime and past midnight before the luck of the Irish prevailed on St Patrick’s Day 89-87. This game was one of the more exciting and tension-filled of the entire campaign, per KenPom ($):

Cold comfort for the Scarlet Knights, however, as they will be expected to return to the Never Been Kissed (NBK) again next year, seeking their first Sweet Sixteen appearance since the field was expanded to 64 teams back in 1985.

The first game of the night was not as thrilling, as Wright St ran off an early 12-2 streak to get out in front of fellow NBKer and 16-seed (Erick) Bryant. The best the Bulldogs could do from there was briefly cutting the lead to five in the second half, and the Raiders maintained a safe social distance on their way to a 93-82 victory and a date with 1-seed Arizona on Friday. This matchup was not nearly as exciting nor tense:

Outside of that action, only slight movement in the rest of the NBK. The rankings are set going into the Round of 64 aka First Round.

THURSDAY
Today’s action for teams seeking their first ever — since 1985 — Sweet Sixteen appearance. Best of luck to these schools and to all your brackets, be they chalky or bold. The NBK is guaranteed to have at least one school in the Round of 32, as our top two squads square off in round one. San Francisco is a slight favorite vs red-hot Murray St. Mountain West reps Colorado St and Boise St are just about a coin-toss against Michigan and Memphis, respectively.

#1 San Francisco (56%) vs #2 Murray St (44%)
#3 Colorado St (50%) vs Michigan
#5 Vermont (33%) vs Arkansas
#6 South Dakota St (42%) vs Providence
#7 Boise St (51%) vs Memphis
#10 Saint Peter’s (9%) vs Kentucky
#14 Longwood (7%) vs Tennessee
#16 Akron (9%) vs UCLA
#17 Norfolk St (6%) vs Baylor
#19 Georgia St (4%) vs Gonzaga
#20 Texas Southern (6%) vs Kansas

FRIDAY
Looking ahead to Friday’s action in the NBK. These NBK rankings and game odds will change and be recalculated again Friday morning, based on Thursday’s results.
#4 TCU (50%) vs Seton Hall
#8 Colgate (22%) vs Wisconsin
#9 Cal St Fullerton (10%) vs Duke
#11 Delaware (9%) vs Villanova
#12 Jacksonville St (8%) vs Auburn
#13 Montana St (8%) vs Texas Tech
#15 Yale (12%) vs Purdue
#18 Wright St (5%) vs Arizona

Data courtesy Kenpom.com

We are underway with the 2022 NCAA Men’s Basketball tournament! The First Four tipped off on Tuesday night, with very minor NBK implications. In the opener, Texas Southern shrugged off a sluggish first half to outlast Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 76-67. The Tigers take on kansas on Thursday. In the night-cap, Indiana (with 10 Sweet Sixteens since 1985 and thus NBK-ineligible) beat Wyoming (NBK Graduating Class of 1987) 66-58. IU’s Trayce Jackson-Davis was really impressive at both ends in that one.

Two more games tonight, first with Wright St and Bryant squaring off for their tournament lives. Then Rutgers battles Notre Dame (4 Sweet Sixteens since 1985) in game two.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com

The field is set! Joey Brackets only missed one (congratulations Wyoming, our condolences Texas A&M)! And this year’s bracket contains 23 schools that have never made it to the Sweet Sixteen in the years since the field was first expanded to 64 teams back in 1985. These teams are the Never Been Kissed (NBK), and in this post we’ll rank them from most- to least-likely to make it to first base err I mean the second weekend.

San Francisco tops our rankings currently, as the Dons hold a 17.9% chance of making it through two rounds unscathed. They’ll have to beat fellow NBKer Murray St in the first round and likely Kentucky in the second.

Speaking of Murray St the Racers are in a group along with Colorado St, Vermont, TCU and even South Dakota St with wildly varying seeds (6,7,9,13!) but given their respective paths very similar odds of getting through. Looking for a value play among that pack? Go with Vermont surprising both Arkansas and Connecticut on their way to the Sweet Sixteen. The Catamounts have been to the tourney three times in the last six years and this season’s edition — their best since the 2005 club that upset Syracuse — have won 22 of 23. Should they make that second round date against Connecticut, we’d see a battle under the boards with the #1 Offensive Rebounding Huskies against #1 Defensive Rebounding Vermont. Oh and the Catamounts shoot the lights out and don’t turn the ball over. We at NBK HQ are bullish on the ‘Mounts.

Boise St got the worst deal from the committee, without question. The Broncos won the Mountain West regular season outright and beat two other tourney-bound teams on their way to the MWC conference tournament championship. They sport an impressive #26 KenPom ranking and are 24-3 since Dec 1. All this and they are saddled with an 8-seed, pitted against a similarly underseeded Memphis (#28 KenPom) team in round one, then if they survive that test go up against the overall number one seed Gonzaga in round two. An 8.2% chance of getting through all that sounds optimistic.

Sorting through the rest of the longshots, Colgate rightly emerges as a best bet. Though only a 14-seed, the Raiders get a pretty soft path: Wisconsin was rewarded for winning the Big Ten regular season but profiles more like a #9 than a #3, and #6 LSU just fired their carpetbagging coach Will F. Wade two days hence.

Rutgers is another intriguing pick, if only because of the success in years past of First Four teams winning multiple games — five teams in the last 10 years have made the Sweet Sixteen from that position. The Scarlet Knights could make it six, though we do not like Texas Tech looming.

Looking even farther down the rankings for signs of life, Texas Southern coach Johnny Jones — late of LSU — has the deepest team in the country (#1 in Bench Minutes) and the most-experienced tournament team (#3 overall, with Vermont and Providence not too far behind). Do us all a favor, Johnny, and beat kansas.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com

Are you like me and forgot today was Daylight Savings Time aka spring forward? I missed an hour of the Barcelona women stomping Real Madrid this morning due to that antiquated relic.

Also congratulations to Nuggetpalooza for their correct selection of Kansas & Arizona in Rush the Court’s College Basketball Survivor pool. Best CBB pool on the internet. Pick two teams from the top six conferences to win all their games that week, then you can’t use them again the rest of the season. Be sure to sign up next November.

SATURDAY
Boise St won the Mountain West title 53-52 over San Diego St. The Broncos survived two close-range SDSU shots and subsequent offensive rebounds in the final possession to escape with the win and complete the MWC double as both regular-season and tournament champs. The Aztecs have been the hegemon of the MWC, making their fifth straight tournament final, and BSU getting over on them had to feel cathartic.

SMU lost to Memphis 70-63 in the Very Long Name AAC semifinal. This result is a bit of an ink blot for the committee — (a) Memphis is a good team, and (b) seven points is not exactly pushing them to the limit. Both true statements, so whichever one you lean on more heavily says what you think about SMU’s chances of grabbing one of the last at-large spots today. Joey Brackets has SMU as the First Team OUT this morning, meaning SMU needs both a Virginia Tech (holders of the coveted Last Team IN slot) blowout loss to Tennessee AND a Richmond (no chance of at-large) loss to Davidson in the Atlantic 10 final. Our money is against the Mustangs, and not just because of what the Semi Ojeleye squad did to my bracket a few years ago.

Saint Louis was smoked by sixteen by A-10 regular season champ Davidson 85-69 in the semifinal. The NIT awaits my Billikens, while the Wildcats move on to an intriguing A-10 final. Dayton was expected to advance for another DvD showdown, but the Flyers were grounded by the Richmond Spiders in the second semi-final. Richmond goes into Selection Sunday as one of two bid-stealers still alive — Lunardi was not sufficiently impressed enough with Texas A&Ms win over Kentucky to make them safe today. He has the Aggies as the Last Team In – so does a blowout loss knock them out?

Vermont won big 82-43 over UMBC in the Vermont Invitational America East final. Good god Catamounts. More ink blots to interprest as you make your bracket: How you feel about Vermont is probably how you feel about Gonzaga — (a) their utter domination of their league means they are very very good and confident and relatively unstoppable, or (b) their league dominance leaves them completely unprepared for the challenges to come.

Princeton edged Cornell 77-73 in an entertaining morning battle in the Ivy League semifinal. I came away impressed with the Tigers first pass at my eye test — a super-talented point-forward surrounded by four three-point shooters? Yes, please. Sounds like a modern mathematical machine. I will be officially bummed if they lose to Yale on Sunday as I don’t believe I can root for Yale.

Montana St scored the first bucket of the game and never trailed vs Northern Colorado, cruising to an 87-66 victory and the Big Sky title.

Random thoughts:
Villanova are the Death Eaters of college basketball. They walk the ball up, swing it back and forth, and wear you out. Look for major depth as a requirement to beat them.

Boise St and Texas Tech are both so long. Why don’t we have a wingspan measure on all these guys? Would make it more interesting for a data dork like myself.

It crackes me up that the Big Ten final is going to be a fun, wide-open affair featuring two high-octane offenses Purdue vs Iowa, while the SEC is going to be a slow, fifteen-round brawl between Texas A&M and Tennessee.

Keegan Murray has an incredibly nice shot. I wonder why Jabari Smith from Auburn seems to have all the heat as shooter of choice.

Coach K is acting very strangely as the Duke ship starts to sink in the ACC final against Virginia Tech.

Very entertaining Pac-12 final between Arizona and UCLA. Both teams threw some big haymakers. UCLA played very very well but Arizona was too good.

SELECTION SUNDAY
Princeton (61%) vs Yale – 11 AM CDT

Only one NBKer game – here’s the full slate for Sunday:

Behold! Our final Never Been Kissed rankings on the morning of Selection Sunday. To this point in the season, we have relied strictly on KenPom ranking overall and in conference to sort the eligible teams on our table. Now that the field is mostly settled — ulcers for SMU and Princeton fans — we begin to overweight on seeding in general and avoidance of the #1 & #2 seeds in particular. We consider the #4 & #5 seeds particularly vulnerable, so it’s good to see no NBKers saddled with those at the moment. South Dakota St, Vermont, and Princeton will be hunting those marks. Colgate has shown better quality this year, but if saddled with a #15 seed they will be in the cross-hairs of a #2 seed right away. You can tell by our rankings, we do think Princeton will prevail over Yale today, and we do not think SMU is going to have all their Sunday prayers answered by all of Tennessee, Davidson AND the committee. Should the Mustangs prove us wrong and find their way into the field, they would likely be a #12 seed and subject to the First Four. Given these circumstances, 4 out of 5 NBK committee members recommend Colgate 🙂

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and ESPN Bracketology and ESPN Bubble Watch and NCAA.com

On Friday of Championship Week — if you’ve ever said the words “Champ Week” aloud, you should be ashamed of yourself — anyone within earshot of the bubble rooted full throat against Indiana, VCU, North Texas and NBK #9 SMU. Joe Lunardi summed up the state of affairs in the wee hours of Saturday morning thusly (my bolding of NBK teams):

Looks like we’ll need another day to unravel and properly sequence the bubble teams. We need to sleep on teams like Wyoming, Michigan, Xavier and hard-luck Oklahoma. Others such as SMU, Dayton and Texas A&M still control their own destinies on Saturday and perhaps even into Sunday. Likely off the board at this point are Wake Forest, VCU, North Texas and Colorado. Our final weekend storyline will be Kentucky, which now has an open path to a No. 1 seed by winning the SEC tournament.

Joe Lunardi, ESPN Bracketologist

Let’s recap the results that matter to the Never Been Kissed (NBK): FRIDAY
Boise St won 68-61 over Wyoming in the Mountain West semifinal, and bumped up to a 6-seed in Joey Brackets’ latest projections. While the Blue Turfers are playing for seed lines and a cool hat on Saturday, the Cowboys will have a fitful wait to see how the rest of the bubble shakes out. Wyoming fans: root hard against Virginia Tech, Dayton, Texas A&M, SMU, and SLU.

In the other MWC semi, Colorado St fell to San Diego St 63-58. The Rams were the better seed but the Aztecs were favored per KenPom. So it’s not an upset and the loss does not hurt CSU – they seem to have nestled comfortably in the 7-seed range.

TCU lost 75-62 to kansas in the Big XII semifinal in Kansas City, MO. Unlike in their recent game in Lawrence, where they made a second half surge to make things interesting for a bit, in this one the Horned Frogs were dominated throughout. It’s a testament to the strength of the Big XII this year that TCU loses three of their last four yet goes comfortably into the NCAAs with momentum and buzz.

North Texas were tripped up by lowly Louisiana Tech 42-36 in a game that even the Pat Riley Knicks found to be an affront to the game of basketball. Over 58 excrutiating possessions, the Mean Green and Bulldogs slung feces at one another before realizing time had mercifully expired and everyone was released to the rest of their day. North Texas coach Grant McCasland is showing up on some early lists of potential replacements for Cuonzo Martin — fired on Friday from Mizzou after five years — and as a long-time Mizzou fan let me be the first to say No Thanks. And as shown above, Lunardi is writing them off too. Devastating loss.

In happier local news, Saint Louis was finally able to get over on St Bonaventure, eeking out a 57-56 win on Friday thanks to SBU’s Kyle Lofton missing two free throws AND a putback in the final two seconds. SLU’s burgeoning 2022 at-large case was demolished in mid-February by consecutive losses to the Bonnies. SBU also knocked SLU out of the A-10 tournament last year, so this victory is particularly satisfying for the Billikens. The win also moves SLU back into Lunardi’s bubble picture — see below — with a date with Davidson next.. Davidson appears to be comfortably IN, and with them having knocked out VCU on Friday a SLU-Dayton final would likely be for only the auto-bid. Despite SLU losing by 21 at Davidson in February, we are only a slight underdog in this one. Let’s Go Bills!

SMU won emphatically 83-58 over Tulsa, and slides slightly over the crest to the better side of the bubble. Today’s semifinal against Memphis seems make-or-break for their at-large hopes. The Mustangs beat the Tigers handily on their home floor a few weeks back, but Memphis is undefeated since and looks to be a legitimate challenger to top AAC dog Houston. This would be a decisive win for SMU.

Rutgers lost to the Iowa light show 84-74. No shame there as Iowa is on fire, and Scarlet Knights coach Steve Pikell signed a lucrative extension. They look to be just above the First Four as an 11-seed.

Big upset in the MAC, as Toledo fell to Akron 70-62 in the semifinal. Look for Toledo back in the NBK this time next year.

UC Santa Barbara ended their one-week stint in the NBK standings by losing to Long Beach St 67-64. UC Irvine and the Gauchos are sure to battle for this space again next year in the Big West.

Finally Montana St kept their dream alive with a win over Weber St 69-66 in the Big Sky semifinal. They will take on Northern Colorado in the final.

SATURDAY
#3 Boise St (45%) vs San Diego St – 5 PM CST
#8 SMU (43%) vs Memphis – 4 PM CST
#9 Saint Louis (46%) vs Davidson – 12 Noon CST
#10 Vermont (91%) vs UMBC – 10 AM CST
#19 Princeton (71%) vs Cornell – 10 AM CST
#23 Montana St (64%) vs Northern Colorado – 7 PM CST

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and ESPN Bracketology and ESPN Bubble Watch and NCAA.com

Thursday recap as we track those teams that have not made the Sweet Sixteen in men’s college basketball since the field was expanded to 64 back in 1985. These schools have Never Been Kissed:

THURSDAY
Toledo trailed by 2 at half to Central Michigan, and by one in the closing seconds. A drive and finish by Rayj Dennis, followed by some great defense by JT Shumate allowed the Rockets to escape with a one point win 72-71 and advance in the MAC.

The suddenly-formidable TCU Horned Frogs stormed back from 18 down to upset Texas in the Big XII, further solidifying their position in the field of 68.

SLU Billikens took care of business with a 20-point blowout of the Explorers in their A-10 opener. Next up: program bogeyman St Bonaventure.

Nevada made it interesting late but Boise St advances 71-69 in their Mountain West opener.

UC Irvine fell to UC Santa Barbara, ending their season suddenly in the Big West quarterfinals. The NBK bids the Anteaters farewell until next year, and welcomes the Gauchos (Santa Barbarians?) to our rankings in their place.

North Texas ripped off a 23-4 run early in the first half to put this one out of reach of minute Rice.

In an NBK vs NBK clash, Colorado St busted Utah St‘s modest bubble, eeking out a 53-51 win in a super-slow Mountain West conference tourney game. CSU remains comfortably in the field and looks to move up a line or two.

Fresno St fell to San Diego St in another MWC tourney slog 53-46. America is not going to be clamoring for MWC at-large bids after these grinders. That said, Joey Brackets still has the Mountain West as a four-bid league — Boise St, San Diego St, Colorado St and Wyoming — which would be their most since they sent five in 2013. A strong showing in the NBK rankings indicates the MWC could continue to poach bids formerly reserved for the likes of the Pac-12, ACC, Atlantic 10 and Missouri Valley.

FRIDAY
#3 Boise St (56%) vs Wyoming – 8:30 PM CST
#4 Colorado St (45%) vs San Diego St – 11 PM CST
#5 TCU (22%) vs Kansas – 6 PM CST
#6 North Texas (66%) vs Louisiana Tech – 11:30 AM CST
#8 Saint Louis (59%) vs St Bonaventure – 1:30 PM CST
#9 SMU (78%) vs Tulsa – 6 PM CST
#14 Rutgers (23%) vs Iowa – 1 PM CST
#17 Toledo (69%) vs Akron – 4 PM CST
#22 UC Santa Barbara (56%) vs Long Beach St – 8 PM CST
#23 Montana St (58%) vs Weber St – 6:30 PM CST

#10 Vermont and #19 Princeton next take the court on Saturday.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and ESPN Bracketology and ESPN Bubble Watch and NCAA.com

Before we look to Thursday action in the NBK – those schools who have Never Been Kissed, never made it to the Sweet Sixteen in the years since the NCAA men’s basketball tournament was expanded to 64 teams in 1985 – let’s review what happened on Wednesday:

Colgate beat Navy 74-58 to win the Patriot and punch their ticket. With some other upsets in conference tourneys Joey Brackets bumped them up to a 14-seed in his latest projections.

Iona lost their semifinal to Rider in their MAAC opener. The Gaels started the year at #162 KenPom and sprinted out to a 19-3 record and #67, including a neutral-site win over #22 Alabama. Four losses since then to inauspicious Niagara, Siena, Manhattan, and now Rider mean the Gaels and Rick Pitino will be lucky to secure an NIT bid.

Utah St handled Air Force 83-56, setting up an NBK clash Thursday against Colorado St. The Aggies lost both games to CSU this year and will have an uphill battle to keep their tournament hopes alive. CSU can afford to lose this one; USU cannot.

Staying in the Mountain West with teams currently on the outside looking into the bubble, Fresno St needed overtime to do it but finally outlasted San Jose St 69-67. They’ll take on San Diego St on Thursday and the USU/CSU winner on Friday, should they advance.

Vermont continued their rumble through the America East tournament aka Vermont Invitational with a shellacking of Binghamton 74-42, and will look to steamroll UMBC on Saturday in the championship game on their home floor.

THURSDAY
#15 Toledo (94%) vs Central Michigan – 10 AM CST
#5 TCU (36%) vs Texas – 11:30 AM CST
#9 Saint Louis (85%) vs LaSalle – 1:30 PM CST
#3 Boise St (76%) vs Nevada – 2 PM CST
#21 UC Irvine (52%) vs UC Santa Barbara – 4:30 PM CST
#6 North Texas (84%) vs Rice – 5:30 PM CST
#7 Utah St (46%) vs #4 Colorado St (54%) – 8 PM CST
#11 Fresno St (37%) vs San Diego St – 10:30 PM CST

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and ESPN Bracketology and ESPN Bubble Watch and NCAA.com