As I watch Manhattan battle Iona for the MAAC championship, here are the latest goings-on with the Never Been Kissed conference.   KenPom posted most of the remainder of his Log5 projections for the conference tournaments, and that informs this ranking update heavily.

Here is the overall status of our 16:

• IN: 1 (SMU)
• OUT: 2 (Indiana St, Southern Miss)
• FIGHTING: 12
• PUCKERED: 1 (Murray St)

Shout out to the Jaspers for getting to this point.  They began their conference tournament with a 12.3% chance of winning it, but now are on ESPN2 with a 37% chance to dance.

The details:

One week to go until Selection Sunday, when the Never Been Kissed gang gets the signal to either pucker up or take a cold shower and come back strong next year.

With the promise and glory of conference tournaments keeping hope alive, Indiana St became the first NBKer to be officially eliminated from the NCAA Tournament.   The Sycamores were smoked 81-52 in the first round of Arch Madness by Porter Moser’s Loyola Ill team.   Hard to fathom how ISU finished tied for third in the conference, as Illinois St — who beat Wichita St to go to Sunday’s tourney final — and Loyola both look substantially stronger.

Harvard has a horseshoe lodged firmly in its hind-quarters, as Yale fell to Dartmouth on a buzzer-beater Saturday night, dropping the Eli or Bulldogs or VPs of Finance into a tie atop the tourney-less Ivy.  Harvard meets Yale in a one-game playoff Saturday at the Palestra in Philadelphia to decide who dances.   (Since we are talking Harvard-Yale, the dancing is sure to be somewhat off-tempo featuring lots of overbites)

Murray St may be racing for the NIT after a heart-breaking loss to Belmont in the title game of the Ohio Valley Conference.  Speculation is that the Racers lack of quality wins — #63 and rising Illinois St is their only Top 100 win — negates the 25-game win streak and keeps them from the Big Dance.

Personally, I would pay to see Cameron Payne and TJ Sapp and Jarvis Williams and all the Racers advance ahead of the likes of Illinois, Purdue, or UCLA.   This is a chance for the committee to consider the Fun Factor.  Though the hashtag #RacersDerserveABid is not actually true – can’t say they deserve it – we at WAB fully endorse its use.  Racer fans’ sphincters will be puckered all this week; we hope to see their lips puckered the week following.

Georgia St took care of business on Saturday, winning the Sun Belt outright and with authority over number two Georgia Southern 72-55.  They take the number 1 seed to the conference tournament in New Orleans.  More importantly to their Sweet Sixteen chances, the Panthers moved up a line on the Bracketology list to a 13-seed.  As we have noted many times, the 4s and 5s always look wobbly come tournament time and 13 is a terrific place for an underdog to emerge from the first weekend.

The Grizzlies of Montana were like Michael Corleone during a baptism on Saturday.  They went into cross-state rivals Montana St and crushed them 70-55, put a sack over the head of Sac St who lost at the Walkup Skydome to drop from the top, and somehow emerged from this byzantine tie-breaker scenario not only as co-conference champs but as Conference Tournament hosts.

Old Dominion has now ripped off six straight and the KenPom.com computer has taken notice, ranking the Monarchs a frisky #57.  Joey Brackets’ radar has extended to Norfolk, as ODU has inched up to the precarious Next Four Out list.  At WAB, we wait with baited breath to see KenPom’s log5 simulation of the CUSA tournament.  Champion Louisiana Tech won the league by two games but at #72 is rated lower than ODU.  And the Monarch’s defense — #47 in AdjD — stands as the only unit in the conference in the Top 50 nationally.

At the other end of the CUSA stands disgraced NBKer Southern Miss.  CUSA is an invitation-only-style tournament, and the Golden Eagles fell all the way from number 5 in the preseason NBK rankings to finishing three-games from qualifying for the conference tournament.  Really rough start for Doc Sadler in Hattiesburg.

Like Georgia St, SMU has a winner-take-all showdown for the conference title and number 1 seed on Sunday, in Dallas vs the Tulsa Hurricanes.  KenPom likes the Mustangs (predicting 82% chance of a win and forecasting a score of 67-58), and we at WAB concur.  The Haithers gonna Haith, Haith, Haith, Haith, Haith and the Hurricanes are gonna Cane, Cane, Cane, Cane, Cane but we suspect Larry Brown and co will shake it off.

Steve Masiello and the Manhattan Jaspers are moving right along in the MAAC tournament, making the semi-finals.  They are favored to beat St Peter’s today and potentially take on top-seeded Iona in the final.

Full NBK update below, grid-style and ordered by Current Kissability rating.

Footnotes:

* The Ivy League is the last remaining conference to eschew a conference tournament, so I cheated a bit here and used KenPom’s odds of Harvard beating Yale in their one-game playoff next Saturday

** Bracketology currently shows another team from these conferences getting the auto-bid, but the team shown is rated lower than their NBK-certified rival so I swapped the NBKer in

Resources:

• Ratings, Log5 and most other data from the incredible KenPom.com.  This is his world and the WAB and NBK just live in it.
• ESPN Bracketology updated frequently by the incomparable Joey Brackets aka Joe Lunardi
• CBS Sports has a great conference tournament bracket site here

We are building toward Conference Tournament season or Championship Week, if you prefer.  We have had a lot of significant movement in the NBK this week.  First the updated NBK standings.

All data from KenPom.com with the exception of ESPN’s Bracketology from Joe Lunardi aka Joey Brackets.  Teams ranked by Current Kissability.

Now some color commentary.

SMU

The Mustangs lost last Sunday to Cincinnati, opening the door for Tulsa to grab the #1 spot in the AAC tournament from betwixt their hooves.  However, the Hurricanes blew it by losing to Cincinnati on Wednesday.  This sets up nicely for a winner-take-all match on Sunday afternoon in Dallas between SMU and Tulsa.  Not only is this the most exciting game in the history of the AAC, but this serves as an early jolt of March Madness energy for the NBKs most kissable squad.

A win Sunday sets the bit and establishes this team as champions of something, creating a possibility of being pod champions in a couple weeks.  A loss Sunday puts a taste of blood in their mouths, and may leave them hungry for vengeance.   Talented team, nicely positioned to do some damage in March.

Harvard

The Crimson suffered the toughest NBK loss of the week, falling at home Friday night to their arch-rivals the Yale Bulldogs at home by ten: 62-52.  This is problematic, as Harvard becomes the very first NBK squad that does not control its own destiny.  The now-second-place Crimson need to beat Brown this weekend and hope Yale loses to Dartmouth, and then they have to beat Yale in a one-game playoff.  Oh, and with this loss Harvard has likely devalued the Ivy League tournament slot out of the cushy 12 / 13 seed down the much more treacherous 14 line.   4s and 5s are ripe for the picking; 3s are better-prepared.

Georgia St

The Panthers sit tied for first in the Sun Belt, and much like SMU they have a winner-take-all game this weekend against Georgia Southern.   Joey Brackets has our Panthers as a 14-seed at the moment, so they do have the potential to sneak up to the more favorable 12/13.  Much can and will change in a week.

Montana

This has been one great year for Larry Krystkowiak.   Not only is his current team the Utah Utes sit at #7 in the KenPom rankings and poised for a deep tournament run, but his alma mater the Grizzlies enter Championship in a three-way tie for first in the Big Sky.   Of the co-leaders, Montana seems to have the edge to stay on top as they play their cross-state rivals (?) #316 Montana St in the I Don’t Know What They Call This Game Series.

It will be tough sledding even if the Grizz get in; not only are they likely to get a 16-seed, they may even get the play-in version of that seed.

Old Dominion

ODU is making a late surge, winning five straight to move into a tie for 2nd place in CUSA and pursing slightly.   They have moved from #88 KenPom down to #66 over the course of the five-game winning streak and are getting frisky.

SLU

Saint Louis University, founded in 1818, also fielded a basketball team this winter.  I put this in the past tense as it looks like the team has hit one to many walls, and their best basketball is behind them.  In the time ODU has moved up 22 spots in the KenPom, SLU has lost 32 spots (from #251 to #283).  Short of Justin Love coming off the bench to rain threes and shattering fibulas, the Billikens are not terribly kissable right now.  Perhaps a toothbrush and some mints.

With just two weeks and some change remaining until Selection Sunday, it seems like the right time to check in on the Never Been Kissed (NBK) member schools.  ICYMI the NBK is a fake conference we invented to track the progress of some Billiken contemporaries.  Full post is here.  To refresh:

In order to be eligible for induction into the NBK, member schools have to meet the following criteria:

• Must field a Division I basketball team

• Must have never have made the Sweet Sixteen

Teams ordered by Current Kissability.  All data from KenPom.com with the exception of Bracketology from ESPN’s Joe Lunardi.

SMU

SMU is in the best position at this point.  They have a two-game lead on fading Tulsa in the AAC and enough of a resume to grab an at-large bid.  Once in the tournament, they are a study in balance with the #36 AdjO and #38 AdjD, and both a solid Mr Inside (6’11” Yanick Moreira) and sterling Mr Outside (5’9″ Nic Moore).

Unless someone drops down to the Play-in round, the Mustangs stand to be the only NBK team that will be favored in an NCAA game this March.  Pucker up, Mustang fans.

Murray State

Since starting the season 2-4 and losing to the likes of Houston and Portland, Murray State has ripped off a streak of 20 straight wins, led by PG Cameron Payne (#8 in Assist Rate) and the #26 overall offense.  Seth Davis has a Sharpie in his pocket, and is glad to see the Racers.

yup! RT @Parcelman18: @SethDavisHoops says if the #Racers run the table and lose in OVC final, he thinks they get an at large. #Racerlove

— Seth Davis (@SethDavisHoops) February 21, 2015

Interesting that Joe Lunardi has Murray State and fellow-NBKer Harvard in the 4v13 / 5v12 pod.  These pods have been fertile ground for upsets in tournaments past.

Harvard

Speaking of the Crimson, Harvard was an early media darling but stumbled hard out of the gate losing to #247 Holy Cross in November, and following that up with a 72-27 loss to #2 Virginia.  That is not a misprint.  That was a palindrome, and also a nightmare if you are a Crimson fan.

But Harvard has steadied the ship of late and is in pretty good shape atop the Ivy, with their remaining Yale game coming at home.  They feature a strong defense (#13 in the country) and though their resume is thin — exactly one Top 100 win — Lunardi is forecasting they have enough Tommy Amaker shine to get into the Upset Pod.

Harvard vs Murray State in the second round would be a dream NBK matchup, champagne popping in the end regardless.  It would be a study of Harvard’s stout defense vs Murray State’s dynamic offense.  (Take the Racers).

Georgia St

The Panthers enter the discussion by moving into a tie in the Sun Belt with Georgia Southern and UL-Monroe.   Georgia St plays both their rivals the final week and control their destiny. Once in the tournament, however, a gauntlet awaits.  It is hard to envision a scenario where they get in the tournament above a 16-seed.

The Rest

• Nobody has fallen farther faster than Southern Miss, as a promising finish to last season has deteriorated into mounting losses and an NCAA probe.  Mounting and probing are always bad when it comes to basketball.
• SLU and Creighton are both on a similar arc, rebuilding with young guys and exploring the depths of their conferences after enjoying a couple of years on top.
• Montana has a decent shot of getting in the tournament, but will also be hard-pressed to climb up beyond a 16-seed
• Indiana St would make a lot of sense as a sleeper NBK team, as the two teams they trail in the MVC are #11 Northern Iowa and #13 Wichita St, both equipped for deep runs this season.  But those programs are not lifting the rest of the Valley.  With a home loss to SLU and their best win over #71 Illinois St, the Sycamores do not have the resume to get a reasonable seed.  Only a five-game tear through Arch Madness would give them a reasonable shot at the Sweet Sixteen.
• Iona was not selected this season, but I can see a scenario where the Gaels get in and draw a defensively-challenged #2 or #3 seed (hello Notre Dame) and rain a hellfire of threes on their bewildered heads in round one, then hang on to win one of those #15 vs #10 bruisers in round two.
• Northwestern has put together a few wins in the B1G and climbed out of its basement.  By all rights, they should not be ranked last in the NBK.  However, we remind you the Wildcats have never made the NCAA Tournament much less the Sweet Sixteen so the coveted 16th spot in the NBK is theirs for the forseeable future.

Twenty-three and it’s so sad to see. — Yellowcard

Maybe “sad to see” is on the melodramatic side.  Feel free to pull a Yellow card on us.

SLU (#244 in KenPom.com ratings coming in) went to #276 Fordham and received a shellacking, giving the Rams their first win in conference play and missing out on the chance to rub two wins together for the first time since before Christmas.

The pre-game buzz, if there was such a thing from two teams lurking at the bottom of the Atlantic 10, was around the matchup of the two promising freshman: Milik Yarbrough from SLU vs Eric Paschall from Fordam.  Both stand a sturdy 6’6″ and are fluid and shifty with the ball.  Both wear jersey #4.   Each leads his team in scoring.    Paschall is the better shooter, Yarbrough the better rebounder.

Fordham struck first, jumping (maybe hopping) to a 12-0 lead.  Jim “The Safecracker” Crews turned a few dials and went to his Stability Team — Austin McBroom and Mike Crawford — and order was restored for the time being.   Two mini-droughts in the second half and too many empty possessions doomed the Billikens to an 83-65 loss.

Jerry Falwell Scoreboard

Any loss to an 0-9 (conference) team is not going to count as a moral victory.  In the first half, when SLU came from 12-0 down to stabilize at 20-18 it looked as though a roadie was well within reach.  But the Bills had given the Rams and their fans and glimpse of what was possible — a rare and precious win in a basketball game with referees and uniforms and everything — and hope sprung eternal.

SLU falls to 2-8 in the Atlantic 10, and 4-4 in moral victories.

Lineups

Starters:

• Marcus Bartley
• Davell Roby
• Ash Yacoubou
• Milik Yarbrough
• Austin Gillmann

Minutes Distribution (non-starters in Bold):

1. Roby (29)
2. Austin McBroom (27)
3. Yacoubou (25)
4. Mike Crawford (24)
5. Gillmann (20)
6. Yarbrough (19)
7. Brett Jolly (16)
8. Bartley (13)
9. Reggie Agbeko (13)
10. John Manning (8)
11. Miles Reynolds (6)
12. Tanner Lancona (0)

The overtime and the injury bring us back to the days early this season where everyone who played went for double-digit minutes.   The  missing Manning’s minutes went mainly to Miles Reynolds.

Four Factors

This is about as thorough a drubbing in the Four Factors as we have seen this year.  SLU shot the ball pretty well but did not keep pace with Fordham otherwise.

Leverage

Most of the Medium-High leverage in this game  came in the first half, and all the High leverage was at the start of the second half, when SLU hit the first two baskets to tie the game at 33.  Fumbling offense led to porous defense, and the rout was on.

SLU Player Stats

(Definitions at the bottom of the post)

•  If Roby continues to pace the team in GmSc/Min, I am going to have to check the WAB supercomputer for North Korean cyberprints.  16 points on 9 shots is downright efficient, and he is throwing in enough other treats — 2 rebounds, 3 assists — to offset some of his tricks (3 turnovers, 4 fouls).
• Mike Crawford provided stability and shooting off the bench, and also turnovers and fouls
• McBroom was a stabilizing force in the first half, and ratcheted up his shots into double-digits.  From Game One it looked like a sure bet he would lead the team in shots taken but the Ys men have overtaken him.
• Bad game for Yacoubou.  Ten points on ten shots, and 5 turnovers.  He carried much of the load in trying to defend Paschall, who seems to favor his perimeter game.
• Five rebounds from Gillmann is what passes for a highlight in this section
• Stinker from Yarbrough, with foul trouble and little in the way of production

Summary

 Lousy game, lousy result.  The best we can muster is the team was able to check out NYC and tiny Rose Hill Arena, and get started with some healthy resentment towards the Rams and their freshman.  No matter how high SLU is riding the next time they return, the memory of this loss should serve as a harsh reminder that any team is dangerous at home.

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AdjGS:  variation on the Game Score metric created by John Hollinger, detailed here.  Hollinger’s original formula is Adjusted to reallocate the points in the game by ratio of the player’s overall impact.  Credit to the team at Rock M Nation for this improvement.

True Shooting %:  Per Basketball Reference, true shooting percentage is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.

Leverage:  Per Ken Pomeroy, measures how much is at stake on a particular possession.  Leverage is not based on what happened during the possession, but is the range of win probability based on what could have happened.  Learn more here.

DNP-CD:  Did Not Play – Coach’s Decision.  Healthy and otherwise eligible player who did not see any action in the game.

How could I possibly know what I want when I was only Twenty-One?  I see plenty of clothes that I like but I won’t go anywhere nice for awhile… — Sinead O’Connor

The Billikens, coming in to this game under .500 and rated #252 in the country, won’t go anywhere nice for awhile.   The NCAA, NIT, CBK and CBI are all down the road a fair piece.  UMass came into this one rated #113, but off to a solid 4-3 start in the conference race including wins over contenders Dayton and Rhode Island.

UMass controlled the Offensive glass and held a block party at Chaifetz Arena to escape with a 60-56 road win, sending SLU to its fourth straight loss and dropping them to 9-11 overall and 1-7 in the A-10.

Jerry Falwell Scoreboard

Given UMass’ recent signs of life, their superior size and experience, and the fact that this game was played within a narrow margin to the final minute, this qualifies as a moral victory.  SLU stands at 4-3 in its bid for a moral majority.

Lineups

Starters: Bartley, Roby, Yacoubou, Yarbrough, Manning

Seven straight for this group.  Nothing to see here.

Minutes Distribution (non-starters in Bold):

1. Austin McBroom (33)
2. Roby (31)
3. Yarbrough (29)
4. Yacoubou (25)
5. Mike Crawford (23)
6. Manning (20)
7. Austin Gillmann (16)
8. Reggie Agbeko (10)
9. Bartley (9)
10. Brett Jolly (4)
11. Tanner Lancona, Miles Reynolds (0)

It has been a tough year for Tanner Lancona.  He opened the season as a starter in the role of a stretch four, but has not shown the ability to stretch (5% from three) nor to hold down the four (Miles Reynolds rebounds at a higher rate).  And so he has sat for the past three games.   I expect there will be more chances for the 6’8″ 230 lb junior, but only the Safecracker knows how many more.

Miles Reynolds, in very limited playing time, has shown a knack for getting to the foul line (14-18 FTs against NC A&T, for instance) but has not distinguished himself in any other facet.  He has shown active hands on defense (3.2 steal rate leads the team) and hands of stone on offense (8% from three; 23% from two).   I have to believe there is some version of a hellacious press in our future, where Roby and Reynolds are reeking havoc in the backcourt.  May that day come soon.

Four Factors

The Factors point to the Billikens being out-sized and out-muscled in this one, as the Minutemen controlled the offensive glass.  Not pictures is the block party they held (7 blocked shots) to establish complete control of the paint.  This was as solid a game as SLU has played all year, but the UMass big men carried the day.

Leverage

Thirty-six of the games forty minutes were played in Medium-High leverage or above.  This game was played in a narrow fourteen point window (SJU’s biggest lead was 9; SLU’s was 5) and was in doubt down to the final minute.

SLU Player Stats

(Definitions at the bottom of the post)

• Mike Crawford did his best Vinny Johnson imitation, coming off the bench firing away
• Roby continues to warm up to the WAB supercomputer, and is even starting to grow on the refs a bit.  This was his first foul-less game of the season.
• Austin Gillmann has shown flashes of being able to replace some of the perimeter 5 play Rob Loe was known for in his time at SLU and with the New Zealand national team.  If Gillmann can establish himself as an outside threat, that can invert the defense and give Yarbrough and Yacoubou room to operate down low.  Again, the the future.
• Yarbrough put up a forgettable (memorable?) 2-15, but scraped enough other contributions to stay on the positive axis.  If SLU cannot adjust to other team’s ability to focus 6’8″, 6’9″ and 6’10” defenders on Yarbrough, he is going to keep hitting his head on branches like this.
• McBroom ran the show with Bartley channeling Roby in foul trouble.  Five assists offset by four turnovers and a quiet shooting night.
• Also a quiet night for Yacoubou, making me wonder if the Safecracker has instructed his tandem of junior guards to work on getting shots for their callow teammates, to season them for the climb next year.

Summary

UMass has played at a fast pace the past several years under Derek Kellogg, but this edition relies more on size than speed.  The Bills slowed them down even more than normal, and held them  but could not finish possessions by securing defensive rebounds.  The Ys Men were held under wraps leading to another loss.

—————————————————————————–

AdjGS:  variation on the Game Score metric created by John Hollinger, detailed here.  Hollinger’s original formula is Adjusted to reallocate the points in the game by ratio of the player’s overall impact.  Credit to the team at Rock M Nation for this improvement.

True Shooting %:  Per Basketball Reference, true shooting percentage is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.

Leverage:  Per Ken Pomeroy, measures how much is at stake on a particular possession.  Leverage is not based on what happened during the possession, but is the range of win probability based on what could have happened.  Learn more here.

DNP-CD:  Did Not Play – Coach’s Decision.  Healthy and otherwise eligible player who did not see any action in the game.