Game on. On this first Thursday of the 2016 NCAA Tournament, two of our Never Been Kissed teams advanced to the second round and the brink of the Sweet Sixteen.
Yale pulled the 5/12 surprise, taking down the Baylor Bears in the first session of the day. Makai Mason had 31 and the Bulldogs move on to a Saturday match with Duke.
Arkansas Little Rock overcame a double-digit deficit to upend the Purdue Boilermakers in double-OT. The Trojans’ Josh Hagins also put up 31, including the tying 3-pointer at the end of regulation. UALR will battle Iowa St on Saturday for the right to move to the Sweet Sixteen.
Colorado, Iona, UNC Wilmington, Stony Brook, Fresno St and Buffalo all bowed out on Day One. They have still never made it to the Sweet Sixteen.
Our rankings of the NBK.
NBK Rankings after day one of the NCAA Tournament
FRIDAY 3/18
Oregon St. vs. VCU
Hawaii vs. California
Stephen F. Austin vs. West Virginia
Cal St. Bakersfield vs. Oklahoma
Green Bay vs. Texas A&M
Weber St. vs. Xavier
UNC Asheville vs. Villanova
Middle Tennessee vs. Michigan State
Champ Week is over, and I am still not sure why it is not still called Championship Week. No matter. Big day for those teams who have never made it to the Sweet Sixteen — who have Never Been Kissed — and have wondered all year just how Kissable they are. All will be revealed.
But first, Sunday’s results
Arkansas Little Rock rode Roger Woods 19&9 to the SunBelt #FunBelt Champ Belt on Sunday.
The NCAA Selection Committee evaluated previously-ranked NBK teams South Carolina, Monmouth, and St. Bonaventure and passed on all three. We would have taken all three and left out Tulsa, Michigan, and Vanderbilt. But what’s done is done.
We pointed the WAB Supercomputer at the tournament field and asked it who had the best chance to break through for their first trip to the second weekend. Below is its answer:
Through Selection Sunday. NBK Rankings going into the Big Dance, by decreasing Kissability
For Round 2 Probability, we assumed that the NBK team pulled the upset in Round 1 and faced the lower seed (better team) in Round 2. NBK teams normally do not catch breaks, but should one of the NBK teams survive Round 1 and draw a lesser opponent in Round 2, we will re-calculate and re-post.
Stephen F. Austin opens with the best chance of winning twice, and the computer even favors them in Round 2 vs 6-seed Notre Dame. This is a big tease, as they are steep underdogs in Round 1 vs 3-seed West Virginia.
Right behind the Lumberjacks are the Yale Bulldogs, rested and ready for action. Yale stands about a 40% chance of winning in each of the first two rounds.
Mark your calendars and load up your slings as our Davids take on these Goliaths:
THURSDAY – 3/17
Yale vs. Baylor (0.40 wProb)
Colorado vs. Connecticut 0.36
Arkansas Little Rock vs. Purdue 0.29
Iona vs. Iowa State 0.26
UNC Wilmington vs. Duke 0.29
Stony Brook vs. Kentucky 0.18
Fresno St. vs. Utah 0.26
Buffalo vs. Miami FL 0.14
FRIDAY – 3/18
Stephen F. Austin vs. West Virginia 0.31
Oregon St. vs. VCU 0.42
Hawaii vs. California 0.32
Cal St. Bakersfield vs. Oklahoma 0.17
Green Bay vs. Texas A&M 0.17
UNC Asheville vs. Villanova 0.11
Middle Tennessee vs. Michigan State 0.09
Weber St. vs. Xavier 0.15
Well, we’ve sprung forward, lit a fire, and have a pot of coffee at the ready. Selection Sunday is finally here! With just a few hours to go before Greg Gumbel starts revealing the field, let’s see where we are with the Never Been Kissed after an epic Saturday of basketball.
NBK Standings for action through Saturday night
We start with the good news here in the NBK. For the first time ever, Stony Brook is going dancing! At home in their beautiful new building, the 4,000 Seawolves fanatics in attendance were treated to the benevolent demonic possession ofJameel Warney. The 6’8″ senior was a One Man Seawolf Pack (Wolf School?) with 43 pts, 10 reb, 4 blks on a day when his teammates could not get anything else going. See. Wolves. See. Wolves.
Hawaii is going (hula) dancing! The Rainbow Warriors got by Long Beach State to take the Big West final late Saturday night. With Bows big man, Big West Player of the Year, and Jimmy Chitwood look-alike Stefan Jankovic largely contained, Aaron “Juan” Valdes led a balanced attack with 14 pts, 5 reb and a pair of steals.
Stephen F. Austin is going (line) dancing! The Lumberjacks did what they do, forcing Texas A&M-Corpus Christi into 20 turnovers to win the Southland going away. SFA is sure to be a favorite upset pick and human interest story, as the Lumberjacks’ intrepid leader Thomas Walkup really honest-to-goodness looks like a Lumberjack. He is the Brawny paper towel guy. And in an age when the small-ball Golden State Warriors are re-writing the records books, the Jacks are the giants of NCAA small-ball: they have won 22 straight with the tenth-shortest lineup, per Ken Pomeroy’s Average Height metric. For all these reasons and their solid #37 KenPom, the Jacks shoot to the top of the NBK rankings.
Welcome Cal St. Bakersfield to the NBK! Diminutive Dedrick Basile led the charge for the Roadrunners with 18 points, dropping an Acme anvil on the head of New Mexico State and taking the WAC championship. The ‘runners boast the #25 KenPom defense and 6’9″ shot-blocker Aly Ahmed and could give some unsuspecting team fits next week.
Arkansas-Little Rock advanced to the Sun Belt #FunBelt final. The Trojans overcame an epic performance from Louisiana-Lafayette‘s Shawn Long — 25 pts, 7 reb, 4 ast, 3 blk — in Saturday’s semi. Long might be the best rebounder you have never heard of. Here’s hoping we get a chance to see him in a postseason tournament somewhere.
Well that was fun. Now onto the bad news.
The Akron Zips fell on Saturday to Buffalo in the wiggity WAC Final, banishing them to NBK gray and relegating them to the NIT. Akron relied heavily on the three-pointer this season, and can take comfort in knowing they did not die by the three (39.5% in the loss).
The Bubble got bubblier last night for a couple of heretofore NBK stalwarts:
Final bubble after overnight “scrub.” IN: Temple, Michigan, St. Mary’s. OUT: Monmouth, So. Carolina, Vandy. A… https://t.co/I4y3NjJ9Nq
All this talk of bubbles and scrubbing and Joe Lunardi has me suddenly feeling under the weather. Let’s move on.
Joey Brackets puts WAY more time into this than we at WAB NBK HQ, so we take his word and drop Monmouth and South Carolina to the bottom of our rankings as we await today’s movement and the committee’s final decision. Apparently you now can bet on the number of teams Joey Brackets correctly predicts, and the line is 66.5 out of 68, so the Hawks and Cocks are hoping like hell to be within Marge N. O’Vera this evening.
To balance out Bracketology Bias, we have added the Bracket Matrix predictions to this edition of the rankings. All good an interesting stuff, and all moot come 4:30 PM Central.
Friday was a crazy one in college basketball. UConn went 4OTs and canned a 70-footer to beat Cincinnati and possibly play their way into the Big Dance. The incomparable Buddy Hield launched a double-pump one-handed half-court prayer to keep the Oklahoma Sooners alive, only to have it turned over on review and send West Virginia to the Big XII final.
In this space, we track teams that have never — since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985 — made it to the Sweet Sixteen. They’ve Never Been Kissed.
NBK rankings, through Friday games
Hawaii advanced to the final of the WAC, beating UC-Santa Barbara by 11. The Rainbow Warriors take on Long Beach State tonight.
Stephen F. Austin annihilated Houston Baptist by 36. They move on to tonight’s Southland final against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. Any school that contains a state, an acronym, punctuation, some Latin, and a girl is certain to be formidable. Good luck, Steve A.
Stony Brook is battling Vermont to death in the America East final. This one will go down to the wire.
Akron advanced to the MAC final, striking Bowling Green by 14. Only Buffalo stands between them and the Big Dance.
St Bonaventure was upset by Davidson in OT, so they are going to have to wait out Sunday. Joey Brackets has them pretty solidly IN as a 10-seed. In other news, Jack Gibbs is magic. Go see Davidson play as soon as you can.
Paging Arkansas-Little Rock. You are needed in the semifinals of the Sun Belt #FunBelt. Paging Arkansas-Little Rock. Louisiana-Lafayette awaits you.
The NBK Selection Committee will be parked in front of the television for the next twelve hours, courting Cinderella, jeering Goliath, and grinning ear-to-ear. Happy Championship Saturday.
Oregon State was knocked out of the Pac-12 Tournament by Cal late Thursday night, but holds fast at a 10-seed in Joey Brackets latest.
Through Thursday 3/10
Nebraska is knocking on the door of the NBK, as Herbie got by Wisconsin to make the quarterfinals of the Big Tennish. Lincoln’s finest are still #96 in the KenPom and will likely have to plow through both Maryland and Michigan State just to get to the conference tournament final, so for now they remain Unkissable.
Holy Cross! The Crusaders have never made the Sweet Sixteen, but they are going to have a prayer of a chance this year. They won their way in despite a #159 rating and unholy 14-19 record.
In NBK Bubble news, Oregon State and St. Bonaventure have moved up to Last Four Byes status, while Monmouth remains in the Last Four In. The likes of Syracuse and Vanderbilt seem to be buffeting the Hawks upwards, so all trends point toward Monmouth joining the field of 68 on Sunday.
In action today are South Carolina, St. Bonaventure, Hawaii, Stephen F. Austin, and Akron. Best of luck and pucker up.
Thursday update as we track those teams who have not made the Sweet Sixteen since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985. These are the most likely to breakthrough.
through Wednesday-ish
Wednesday Colorado and Oregon St pushed through to the quarterfinals of the Pac 12 tournament. The Buffs and South Carolina were thus separated by Joey Brackets, while the Beavs zoomed from Last Four In all the way up to a 10-seed.
On Thursday, Hawaii destroyed Cal State Fullerton to make the semifinals of the Big West. I have my fingers crossed that Kanye’s next child will be named “Big West”.
Also on Thursday, Akron too zipped to their semifinal with a win over Eastern Michigan. There they will take on the #12-seed Bowling Green and likely remain on collision course with #2 Ohio in the final.
Colorado ran into Arizona on Thursday night, fell behind by half a million but closed fast to make it a respectable 82-78 loss. No idea how Joey Brackets interprets all that bluster.
Also, SLU lost and fired their coach, Jim “Safecracker” Crews. The official What’s a Billiken position holds that the program was pointed in the right direction. The A-10 games affirmed that next year we will have a Senior Class in Reggie Agbeko and Mike Crawford, and Jermaine Bishop is in charge. Find another shooter and someone who wants to make the all-conference defensive team, and something good is brewing. Coach Crews — we thank you.
South Dakota St beat their rivals North Dakota St in the Summit championship on Tuesday night. The Jackrabbits played their way in to the Big Dance and are slotted as a dangerous 12-seed by Joe “Joey Buckets” Lunardi of ESPN Bracketology. So we move them up in the NBK rankings, as we continue to track those teams who have never made the Sweet Sixteen or Never Been Kissed.
through Tuesday 3/8
Joey Brackets must be monitoring the NBK closely, as his March 9 bracket has two pairs of NBK teams squaring off against each other:
Colorado vs South Carolina in an 8/9 matchup
Monmouth vs St. Bonaventure in a play-in game for a number 11-seed
Outside of the Monmouth and St. Bonaventure fans holding their respective breaths, this is a quiet day in the NBK. Colorado opens Pac-12 play, but sits safely IN and unless they are going to go ahead and win the conference tournament, might benefit from a drop in seed.
Oregon St also opens Pac-12 play and as they remain First Four Out, will need to rip off a streak to feel safe on Sunday.
Meanwhile, Hawaii, Stony Brook, UALR and Akron have to be watching all of these #1 conference seeds go down and wonder if they are next.
Iona topped Monmouth in a tense MAAC final. Joey Brackets has Monmouth (and St. Bonaventure) hanging on as one of the Last Four In, so we keep them in the NBK.
Ken Pomeroy posted the Pac-12 and SEC odds, which do not favor Colorado (2.7%) nor South Carolina (7.6%). Both may be safely in, but each could use a deep conference tourney run to avoid a #1 or #2 seed in the second round.
The Pomeroy computer was much kinder to St. Bonaventure, giving the Atlantic-10 conference co-champs Bonnies a 12.6% chance of grabbing the auto-bid.
Stony Brook handled their business on Monday, easily dispatching Hartford by 16 and advancing to the next round. Look for that game whenever the America East gets around to holding it.
UNC Wilmington secured a bid by winning the CAA over Hofstra, mortally wounding the Pride and relegating it to gray, gray shame.
For the first time in a week, Oregon St. finds itself on the outside looking in as Joey Brackets lists them as First Four Out. With a 2.2% chance of winning the Pac-12 Tournament, the Beavers are poised on the brink of NBK elimination.
Welcome Green Bay! The Phoenix rose right into the field by romping through the Horizon League tourney, knocking off number one seed Valparaiso in OT in the semifinal, then getting by Wright St in the final early Tuesday eve.
South Dakota St squares off against North Dakota St in the Summit League final tonight.
In the 31 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournaments since the field expanded to 64 teams, the University of North Carolina Tar Heels have made it to the Sweet Sixteen a whopping 20 times. Near neighbor Duke has the most Sweet Sixteen appearances with 22. And nearby North Carolina State has made the second weekend on six occasions.
Neither UNC Wilmington nor UNC Asheville have made the Sweet Sixteen in that span. Both are currently on our watchlist of the Never Been Kissed, teams looking to make their first appearance in the Sweet Sixteen. The young-and-exuberant Asheville squad won their conference tournament on Sunday, and Wilmington will battle Hofstra to the death tonight.
The NBK rankings through Sunday’s action:
Through Sunday 3/6
Yale moves up significantly, as the surprise of their first NCAA Tournament appearance in fifty years gives way to the possibility that they might, just maybe, win a couple of games. Projected as a 13-seed, the Bulldogs may draw a favorable matchup with a 4-seed in decline.
Monmouth and Iona are battling it out for the MAAC Championship as I type. The winner will likely be a 12-seed regardless of who comes out on top.
Stephen F. Austin got some good news today as KenPomeroy’s simulator gives him an overwhelming 76.4% chance of winning the Southland tournament. Per KenPom, that is the most of any school this year. Have a ball, Steve-O.
The Evansville Purple Aces joined the gray ranks of the dismayed on Sunday, as they were knocked off by Wes Washpun and his Northern Iowa cronies in the MVC final of Arch Madness. Evansville started slowly, came out with their pants on fire in the second half, and nearly completed the comeback. But Washpun was too tough to handle down the stretch and his jumper from the top of the key dropping with 0.0 dashed the Purple Aces dreams.
I guess Stony Brook plays again tonight, but I am not sure the format of the America East conference tournament. They seem to prize well-rested basketball above all other factors, with five days between each round of action. Perhaps they will complete their conference tourney before the start of the NCAAs, but I don’t want to rush them.
One week to Selection Sunday, and conference tournament season is heating up. Plenty of action in the Never Been Kissed conference, as those teams who have never made the Sweet Sixteen in the 31 tournaments since the field expanded to 64 vie for contention.
First, the updated standings through Saturday’s action:
NBK rankings, through Saturday 3/5
We have added the gray section to honor the fallen. These teams are OUT and are playing for next year’s NBK. SMU has been gray all year, serving a one-year postseason ban. And like rain on your wedding day, isn’t it ironic that the Mustangs are now 16th in the country by the KenPom.
Princeton will not be puckering up this year, as Yale beat Columbia on Saturday to clinch the Ivy and thus the automatic bid. The Tigers will close the season with a meaningless game on Tuesday.
James Madison also joined the ranks of the gray and grim on Saturday, falling to both William & Mary in the CAA tournament. The Tribe may push their way into the NBK rankings before all is said and done at the CAA in Baltimore.
Colorado remains atop the NBK, despite a close 2-point loss at Utah. The Buffs are in the top spot mainly due to their position safely in the tournament, but as Selection Sunday approaches we will need to adjust our ranking criteria. It will become more important to avoid play-in games and encounters with #1 seeds in round two. Colorado would be better off climbing to a 7-seed or dropping down to a 10- or 11-seed, in terms of their Sweet Sixteen odds.
South Carolina trounced Arkansas to stop a two-game losing skid.
Welcome Evansville! Jim Crews’ old club trounced Indiana St by 26 to move on to the Arch Madness final. There they expected to meet Wichita St, but the Shockers were upset in OT by Northern Iowa. So the Purple Aces go from being a heavy underdog to a slight favorite to clinch the bid in Sunday’s final.
Welcome Iona! With Princeton’s demise, a spot in the NBK 16 opened up and the Gaels rushed to fill the void. The precarious ranking is justified, however, as Iona will have to beat Siena on their home floor tonight, then presumably knock off rival Monmouth in the final.
We mentioned yesterday the NBK Selection Committee would be in attendance for the St Bonaventure game at SLU. Much as they did last week vs Dayton, the Billikens sufficiently mucked things up to make the game close and interesting. We counted four players tended to for blood on their bodies or uniforms or both. The Bonnies backcourt scraped to a 9-point win at Chaifetz Arena, securing a share of the Atlantic-10 for SBU. Well done Bonnies, but not enough to move them up in the NBK.
Honorary mention to Austin Peay — the 8-seed from the OVC — winning the auto-bid on Saturday, completing a four-game tear. This marks the first time all year the 18-17 Governor have been over .500 and the first time they have won four straight. Austin Peay has never made the Sweet Sixteen and though they are now safely in the field will need some help in cracking the Never Been Kissed rankings.
College Basketball analysis and other random tidbits
