Well it was a rough opening round for the Never Been Kissed conference. Four member teams made the tournament; only one — Georgia St — survived to the weekend.
Manhattan was the first to bow out, as the Jaspers were upset in the play-in game by fellow 16-seed Hampton. Next up was our best hope, but 6-seed SMU was also upset by the 11-seed UCLA Bruins. The Mustangs were in control and seemingly assured of victory and a favorable second round matchup with 14-seed UAB, when all kinds of craziness and mayhem turned the game in favor of UCLA. A hoop stat nerd Mustang fan will look at this win probability graph and weep.
Harvard, a 13-seed then lost a close one to 4-seed North Carolina. The Tar Heels were in control most of the game, before the Crimson chipped away and took a brief 65-63 with less than two minutes remaining after a four-point play by Siyani Chambers. Justin Jackson then took over for the Heels, scoring the next four to send UNC on to the Second Round.
On the bright side, 14-seed Georgia St shocked the world and broke our collective bracket by knocking off the 3-seed Baylor Bears. My hope is that coaches sitting on barstools and sporting casual wear becomes a new thing.
So we now have all our NBK eggs in the Panthers’ basket. KenPom gives Georgia St only a 33% chance of winning against 6-seed Xavier. Taking a glance at the Four Factors it looks like this one is likely to come down to Turnovers: the Panthers need to turn the Musketeers over, then turn them over again and again like a pastry. Back on Feb 18, Cincinnati was able to turn Xavier over 18 times while only coughing it up 6 times themselves. But the Muskys drained 10 of 17 from three to make up for it and squeak out a 59-57 win.
Best of luck to the Hunters and barstools and the NBK and America, by golly.
| NBK Rank (Current) | Team (KenPom Rank) | Conference Finish | NCAA Status | Road to the Sweet Sixteen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia St (61) | 1st (Sun Belt) | 14-seed - ALIVE | Ga Southern - CHECK UL Lafayette - CHECK Ga Southern - CHECK 3 Baylor - CHECK 6 Xavier |
| 2 | SMU (24) | T-1st (AAC) | 6-seed - OUT | 11 UCLA - OUT |
| 3 | Harvard (73) | T-1st (Ivy) | 13-seed - OUT | 4 North Carolina - OUT |
| 4 | Manhattan (148) | T-3rd (MAAC) | 16-seed - OUT First Four | 16 Hampton - OUT |
| 5 | Old Dominion (66) | T-2th (CUSA) | First Four Out | |
| 6 | Murray State (64) | 1st (OVC) | Next Four Out | |
| 7 | Montana (160) | T-1st (Big Sky) | OUT | Weber St - CHECK N Arizona - CHECK E Washington - OUT |
| 8 | Colorado (90) | T-8th (P12) | OUT | Oregon St - CHECK Oregon - OUT |
| 9 | Creighton (82) | T-9th (BE) | OUT | DePaul - CHECK Georgetown - OUT |
| 10 | Nebraska (131) | 12th (B1G) | OUT | Penn St - OUT |
| 11 | New Mexico (144) | 8th (MWC) | OUT | Air Force - OUT |
| 12 | Fordham (212) | T-12th (A10) | OUT | George Mason - CHECK VCU - OUT |
| 13 | Saint Louis (297) | 14th (A10) | OUT | Duquesne - OUT |
| 14 | Indiana St (176) | 3rd (MVC) | OUT | Loyola Ill - OUT |
| 15 | Southern Miss (315) | 13th (CUSA) | OUT | did not make conference tourney |
| 16 | Northwestern (119) | 11th (B1G) | OUT | Indiana - OUT |