Before the tournament starts — or technically between the First Four and the Second Round — let’s examine the odds of teams who have never before been to the Sweet Sixteen of advancing there for the first time.
We at WAB have been tracking 16 of these teams all years in the fictional coalition-of-the-unwilling Never Been Kissed conference. NBK membership is granted and reviewed on an annual basis.
Buffalo looks most likely to jump the queue and advance without even making the NBK watchlist, with Stephen F. Austin not far behind. Having watched both in their conference tournament championships, we at WAB will be surprised if either wins twice. Perhaps Bobby Hurley’s continuing hatred of Christian Laettner will be enough to propel Buffalo.
Manhattan bowed out even before things officially started, falling to Hampton in the First Four. Only three NBK squads remain in the hunt for history.
Sweet Sixteen historical data from the Washington Post database. Odds of advancing from KenPom.com.
| Team | Seed | Region | Swt16 Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMU* | 6 | S | 29.7 |
| Buffalo | 12 | MW | 17.4 |
| Stephen F. Austin | 12 | S | 12.4 |
| Georgia St.* | 14 | W | 7.9 |
| Harvard* | 13 | W | 7.7 |
| Wofford | 12 | W | 6.1 |
| Boise St. | 11 | E | 5.1 |
| UC Irvine | 13 | E | 4.5 |
| Albany | 14 | E | 2.4 |
| Northeastern | 14 | MW | 2.3 |
| Eastern Washington | 13 | S | 2.0 |
| North Florida | 16 | S | 1.1 |
| North Dakota St. | 15 | S | 1.0 |
| Coastal Carolina | 16 | W | 1.0 |
| Belmont | 15 | E | 0.8 |
| Lafayette | 16 | E | 0.5 |
| Manhattan* | 16 | MW | 0.4 |
| Robert Morris | 16 | S | 0.3 |
| Texas Southern | 15 | W | 0.2 |
| Hampton | 16 | MW | 0.03 |
* NBK members for 2014-15