On Jan 19 2013, SLU lost at home to Rhode Island 82-80 in overtime. Second straight loss limping to a 1-2 start in the A-10. Combined with another early season home dud against Santa Clara and losing potential resume-builders against Kansas and Washington, and the Billikens were booked standby on the CBI Express.
Coach Jim Crews inserted Grandy Glaze into the lineup for the next game, against Duquesne. The sophomore from Toronto went a perfect 4-4 from the field, snagged 11 rebounds, and 2 steals in a 73-64 win over the Dukes. He played 27 mins and his Offensive Rating was 136. He set a few thousand picks and ran up on his toes. The only negative was a Shaquian 0-4 from the line.
SLU won 11 straight, and have put up 43 wins agains 9 losses since. They have won two A-10 regular season titles, one A-10 tournament and have gone 2-2 in NCAA Tournament play. Glaze unquestionably was a catalyst in all this success.
But while his energy and attitude have lifted the program, his production has lain low. Those 27 minutes against Duquesne a year and a half ago are the most he has played since. Crews replaced Glaze in the starting lineup seven games into last season, first trying freshman Reggie Agbeko before running with Jake Barnett and the Five Seniors.
Similar to the Glaze Effect the year prior, the Barny Bounce was immediate and lasting as SLU ripped off a 19-game winning streak and moved into the Top 10 for the first time since the 1960’s. Grandy continued to do Grandy things, but his minutes remained low even when it was clear the seniors were running out of gas. Glaze played double-digit minutes only once in the last eleven games. His rebounding rate was up (a stellar 27% Defensive Rebounding rate, per KenPom.com), he shored up his foul shooting (72%), but he played only one minute in the 2nd round loss to Louisville.
What can we expect from Grandy Glaze as a senior? Well, we know he is going to bring the fun. Intro line handshake routines should be killer. He is the biggest personality available, plus the most experienced guy on an inexperienced team. Coach Crews has been banging the “starting is for high school” drum repeatedly this preseason, so we may see a dozen or more different lineup combos while the roster sorts out, but through all that churn the minutes should be there for Grandy. What will he do with those minutes?
Fun With Projections
Ken Pomeroy has a fantastic feature where he crawls to find statistically similar players. Per KenPom.com, these five were the most similar to Grandy as a Junior (Similarity scores in parentheses):
- ’10 Marshall Moses, Oklahoma St (877)
- ’08 DeAndre Coleman, South Alabama (870)
- ’12 Leon Gibson, Houston (859)
- ’10 Gabe Blair, Wichita St (858)
- ’08 Marquise Gray, Michigan St (858)
All 6’6″ to 6’8″ and around 235 lbs. All thick-chested rebounders. All Juniors. I took the average changes — for better and for worse — these five doppelgrandys produced in their Senior year versus their Junior year, and fed them into the WAB supercomputer. Then I coated them with a 2014 Glaze to come up with a plausible Senior year composite for our man. Some highlights below:
A modest increase in minutes leading to a substantial jump in Offensive Rtg. More Grandy, better results. Marginally more aggressive, using more possessions and using them wisely. The foul-related metrics are what stand out. Fouls Committed down nicely, and Fouls Drawn up 40%! This is a substantial change from fouler to foulee.
Careful With That Axe, Eugene
Commanding the ball AND going from “roundly ignored” to “foul worthy” on offense. Hmm. These traits remind me of a similarly-sized Billiken from way back in the early 2010s. 6’6″ 240 lbs. The Machine from Eugene: Brian Conklin. You may recall Conk spent his first two years just getting by on adrenaline and enthusiasm, setting picks, treating the ball like a hot potato, and fouling everything that moved. By Junior year, he started to figure things out and put together a few good runs. The overall numbers were solid, but the leap as a Senior was remarkable.
Conklin the Senior commanded the ball and scored with clever post moves and bulldog determination, becoming more and more foul-worthy. His overall rebounding rates declined as he traded weakside boxing out action for posting up and initiating contact. Even as fellow Senior Kyle Cassity slumped down the stretch, Conk carried the load.
Conclusion
Of the 5 doppelgrandys identified by KenPom.com, only one went to the NCAAs as a Senior. Marquise Gray and Michigan St went all the way to the final game, losing to North Carolina and Psycho T. Gray was a role player on that team, sharing minutes with a 6’7″ 230 pound freshman named Draymond Green.
Brian Conklin the Senior led SLU to the NCAA tourney and a first round win over Memphis. Conk and the Bills were stopped short of the Sweet Sixteen by Draymond Green, also now a Senior, and his Michigan St club.
Will Glaze assert himself like a doppelgrandy? Will he become full-on and foul-worthy? I think Crews leans on Glaze more this season, and Grandy responds with a better-than-doppelgrandy performance halfway to Senior Conklin. November is awash with dubious math and boundless optimism. Starting Saturday, the puzzle starts to take shape. See you at Chaifetz.