There’s twenty-five years
To work out where we’re going
I know summer’s almost over
So before it starts snowing –Saint Etienne
Game Twenty-five was a roady at Rhody. The Rams kept the heat on our young Bills and moved into a three way tie atop the A-10, joining Dayton and VCU.
Off the bench, Miles Reynolds scored a career-high 21 points. Reynolds’ ability to get to the free throw line is super-natural. For comparison, here are a few notable recent Billikens and their Free Throw Rates:
- Ian Vouyoukas, 2006: 73.4
- Brian Conklin, 2012: 64.4
- Dwayne Evans, 2013: 61.1
Reynolds’ FTRate this season is 154.5. That is just nuts. I am turning the WAB supercomputer loose on trying to find anyone even close.
Jerry Falwell Scoreboard
Negativo. This was not a closely-contested game at any point, as we will see later in the (Lack of) Leverage section. Positives included getting Crawford a start and Reynolds and Roby’s relentless attacking. But not enough material for a moral victory.
SLU falls to 10-15 overall, 2-10 in the Atlantic 10, and 5-5 in the Jerry Falwell.
Lineups
Starters:
- Marcus Bartley (13th start this season)
- Davell Roby (23)
- Mike Crawford (1)
- Milik Yarbrough (16)
- John Manning (20)
Yacoubou had started all 24 previous. The team was not lighting the world on fire, so Crawford gets the nod.
Minutes Distribution (non-starters in Bold):
- Roby (36)
- Yarbrough (34)
- Miles Reynolds (25)
- Reggie Agbeko (24)
- Crawford (16)
- Brett Jolly (16)
- Bartley (14)
- Austin Gillmann (14)
- Manning (10)
- Ash Yacoubou (7)
- Tanner Lancona (3)
- Austin McBroom (1)
Given Yarbrough’s recent struggles, I would not be surprised to see some of the Yarbrough / Manning combo minutes go instead to Agbeko / Gillmann. They operate best at different points on the floor.
Four Factors
The Billikens fumbled this one away, pressured by the Rams into 21 turnovers. The Rams has only 10 turnovers.
Leverage
No meaningful minutes to be had in this one. The Bills started as heavy underdogs, fell behind 14-6 and never got closer than 10 points the rest of the way.
SLU Player Stats
(Definitions at the bottom of the post)
- The Safecracker fired up the Rey Rey machine for another go and he nearly matched his 14-18 FT feast from way back before Thanksgiving with a 13-15.
- Roby also attacked and went a perfect 10-10 from the line, offsetting poor shooting from the field and kicking in 5 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 steals. Roby has logged at lot of minutes this season and fortunately seems only to be getting stronger.
- Agbeko nearly hit a season high in minutes and contributed 4-5 from the field and 6 rebounds
- Crawford made little of his first start, only taking 3 shots in 16 minutes. As a shooting threat, he should be able to open up lanes for the attacking guards, and the next stage of offensive evolution for this team will bring the drive-and-kick into play. Meanwhile, much like Jake Barnett before him, Mike Crawford is going to have to show he can at least slow down his man and funnel on defense.
- So difficult to say if the intention was to feature Yacoubou for extended time off the bench, as he hacked his way to 4 fouls in just 7 minutes. This was the only game he has not started, and also the only single-digit game for Ash. Uncharacteristic.
So given all this, what you have seen this year, and where we are going next year and beyond, who do you play?
Summary
SLU’s doldrums coincide with a tour of this year’s contenders to succeed them as Atlantic 10 champions: Dayton, Rhode Island and on to VCU on Tuesday. The losses continue to mount, and moral victories are not flowing freely either. Yarbrough seems out of gas, and the #13 defense of the Rams was not going to provide any rejuvenation.
Geometry, meaningful minutes, and league orientation are what we need to maximize in the remaining three weeks.
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AdjGS: variation on the Game Score metric created by John Hollinger, detailed here. Hollinger’s original formula is Adjusted to reallocate the points in the game by ratio of the player’s overall impact. Credit to the team at Rock M Nation for this improvement.
True Shooting %: Per Basketball Reference, true shooting percentage is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.
Leverage: Per Ken Pomeroy, measures how much is at stake on a particular possession. Leverage is not based on what happened during the possession, but is the range of win probability based on what could have happened. Learn more here.
FTRate: Per Ken Pomeroy, free throw rate is calculated by 100*FTA/FGA. This measures a player’s ability to get the line relative to how often he attempts to score.
DNP-CD: Did Not Play – Coach’s Decision. Healthy and otherwise eligible player who did not see any action in the game.