How could I possibly know what I want when I was only Twenty-One?  I see plenty of clothes that I like but I won’t go anywhere nice for awhile… — Sinead O’Connor

The Billikens, coming in to this game under .500 and rated #252 in the country, won’t go anywhere nice for awhile.   The NCAA, NIT, CBK and CBI are all down the road a fair piece.  UMass came into this one rated #113, but off to a solid 4-3 start in the conference race including wins over contenders Dayton and Rhode Island.

UMass controlled the Offensive glass and held a block party at Chaifetz Arena to escape with a 60-56 road win, sending SLU to its fourth straight loss and dropping them to 9-11 overall and 1-7 in the A-10.

Jerry Falwell Scoreboard

Given UMass’ recent signs of life, their superior size and experience, and the fact that this game was played within a narrow margin to the final minute, this qualifies as a moral victory.  SLU stands at 4-3 in its bid for a moral majority.

Lineups

Starters: Bartley, Roby, Yacoubou, Yarbrough, Manning

Seven straight for this group.  Nothing to see here.

Minutes Distribution (non-starters in Bold):

1. Austin McBroom (33)
2. Roby (31)
3. Yarbrough (29)
4. Yacoubou (25)
5. Mike Crawford (23)
6. Manning (20)
7. Austin Gillmann (16)
8. Reggie Agbeko (10)
9. Bartley (9)
10. Brett Jolly (4)
11. Tanner Lancona, Miles Reynolds (0)

It has been a tough year for Tanner Lancona.  He opened the season as a starter in the role of a stretch four, but has not shown the ability to stretch (5% from three) nor to hold down the four (Miles Reynolds rebounds at a higher rate).  And so he has sat for the past three games.   I expect there will be more chances for the 6’8″ 230 lb junior, but only the Safecracker knows how many more.

Miles Reynolds, in very limited playing time, has shown a knack for getting to the foul line (14-18 FTs against NC A&T, for instance) but has not distinguished himself in any other facet.  He has shown active hands on defense (3.2 steal rate leads the team) and hands of stone on offense (8% from three; 23% from two).   I have to believe there is some version of a hellacious press in our future, where Roby and Reynolds are reeking havoc in the backcourt.  May that day come soon.

Four Factors

 

The Factors point to the Billikens being out-sized and out-muscled in this one, as the Minutemen controlled the offensive glass.  Not pictures is the block party they held (7 blocked shots) to establish complete control of the paint.  This was as solid a game as SLU has played all year, but the UMass big men carried the day.

Leverage

Thirty-six of the games forty minutes were played in Medium-High leverage or above.  This game was played in a narrow fourteen point window (SJU’s biggest lead was 9; SLU’s was 5) and was in doubt down to the final minute.

SLU Player Stats

(Definitions at the bottom of the post)

• Mike Crawford did his best Vinny Johnson imitation, coming off the bench firing away
• Roby continues to warm up to the WAB supercomputer, and is even starting to grow on the refs a bit.  This was his first foul-less game of the season.
• Austin Gillmann has shown flashes of being able to replace some of the perimeter 5 play Rob Loe was known for in his time at SLU and with the New Zealand national team.  If Gillmann can establish himself as an outside threat, that can invert the defense and give Yarbrough and Yacoubou room to operate down low.  Again, the the future.
• Yarbrough put up a forgettable (memorable?) 2-15, but scraped enough other contributions to stay on the positive axis.  If SLU cannot adjust to other team’s ability to focus 6’8″, 6’9″ and 6’10” defenders on Yarbrough, he is going to keep hitting his head on branches like this.
• McBroom ran the show with Bartley channeling Roby in foul trouble.  Five assists offset by four turnovers and a quiet shooting night.
• Also a quiet night for Yacoubou, making me wonder if the Safecracker has instructed his tandem of junior guards to work on getting shots for their callow teammates, to season them for the climb next year.

Summary

UMass has played at a fast pace the past several years under Derek Kellogg, but this edition relies more on size than speed.  The Bills slowed them down even more than normal, and held them  but could not finish possessions by securing defensive rebounds.  The Ys Men were held under wraps leading to another loss.

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AdjGS:  variation on the Game Score metric created by John Hollinger, detailed here.  Hollinger’s original formula is Adjusted to reallocate the points in the game by ratio of the player’s overall impact.  Credit to the team at Rock M Nation for this improvement.

True Shooting %:  Per Basketball Reference, true shooting percentage is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.

Leverage:  Per Ken Pomeroy, measures how much is at stake on a particular possession.  Leverage is not based on what happened during the possession, but is the range of win probability based on what could have happened.  Learn more here.

DNP-CD:  Did Not Play – Coach’s Decision.  Healthy and otherwise eligible player who did not see any action in the game.