VCU 63, SLU 61: Game Nineteen

Hey Nineteen, that’s ‘reeetha Franklin.  She don’t remember the Queen of Soul.  – Steely Dan

That lyric is from a song from the 70s about a vapid teen that just doesn’t get it.  Game Nineteen was played in the 60s — a pace to SLUs liking — and the Billikens’ band of 19 year olds showed that they are getting it.

VCU beat SLU 63-61 in a Friday Night thriller on ESPN2. Traveon Graham converted a knifing, twisting drive in the last second to give the #17 (KenPom) Rams their tenth straight win this season, and their first win at Chaifetz Arena since the 2010 CBI Finals.

Jerry Falwell Scoreboard

Starting Is For High School ™ and Winning Beats Losing ™ but when you are rebuilding a program around young players, moral victory is certainly preferable to either demoralizing slaughter or proving you can beat a woman and some midgets.

After getting smoked by Wichita St, drubbed by Davidson and recently demoralized at Dayton, this home game was another great chance for quality minutes in an intense game against a high-quality opponent.  We did not come away with the win, but the moral victory was secured some time in the second half.

The Billikens stand at 3-2 in moral victories.

Lineups

Starters:  Bartley, Yacoubou, Roby, Yarbrough, Manning

I said in the last post that was the fifth straight game these five had started.  That was number four.  THIS was the fifth since Bartley took over for McBroom.

Minutes Distribution (non-starters in Bold):

  1. Roby (33)
  2. Austin McBroom (31)
  3. Yarbrough (29)
  4. Bartley (27)
  5. Yacoubou (25)
  6. Austin Gillmann (21)
  7. Manning (18)
  8. Reggie Agbeko (11)
  9. Mike Crawford (5)

Considering Crawford only made a cameo, this was a game where SLU only played eight.  Hard to say how much of this was by design, and how much by fee.  I suspect Jim “The Safecracker” Crews went into this game with the intention of playing everybody, giving everyone a chance to face VCU’s Havoc pressure and intensity.  Somewhere along the line it clicked: we could actually win this thing.  And all grandfatherly doling out of heaping helpings of minutes turned into an intense desire to rip the other team’s heart out.

Four Factors

This was as even a battle in the Four Factors as on the scoreboard.  VCU got to the line more often and won the turnover battle, and the Billikens countered by getting on the offensive boards and attacking the paint off press breaks.

Leverage

Screen Shot 2015-01-26 at 8.18.14 PM

#16 vs #261 starts off as a huge mismatch.  Credit the Billikens will and skill for making Meaningful Minutes in a game expected to be a blowout.  Credit the Rams for winning in dramatic fashion on the road.

SLU Player Stats

(Definitions at the bottom of the post)

Data www.kenpom.com
Data www.kenpom.com
  • Yarbrough, Bartley and Agbeko made the most of their time on the floor, leading the way in GmSc/Min
  • Yarbrough once again led in points and rebounds, and kicked in three assists
  • Passing was contagious and patient zero was Bartley with seven assists
  • McBroom only logged two assists but was the primary press breaker and served the key role of not only advancing the ball past mid-court, but putting the team into an attacking position.  A typical upset recipe involves a high mix of three-pointers, but SLU attacked the paint to great success.
  • Yacoubou defended Graham on his final drive, and executed per the game plan of forcing him left.  Graham being who he is knifed back to his right at the last instant and evaded the double-team enough to get off the winning shot.  Ash had a poor shooting night but contributed rebounds and toughness.
  • Roby continues to battle the computers to a draw, eeking out measly 0.06 GmSc/Min but scraping and clawing for 33 minutes, anchoring a defense that held VCU to 42% from 2-point range and 30% on 3-pointers.  It would have been interesting to see what would have happened if Roby was on Graham that last possession.

Summary

After a sluggish start to a season it entered with high expectations, VCU has now won ten straight at sits atop the conference with a 6-0 record.   Just as Jordair Jett saved the Billikens bacon last season, Traveon Graham made the winning play in this one.  Jett’s drive at UMass preserved the A-10 title for SLU and sealed his campaign for A-10 Player of the Year.  Graham’s drive kept VCU perfect and atop the A-10 standings, and furthered both the Rams drive to succeed the Bills, and his chances to succeed Jett.

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AdjGS:  variation on the Game Score metric created by John Hollinger, detailed here.  Hollinger’s original formula is Adjusted to reallocate the points in the game by ratio of the player’s overall impact.  Credit to the team at Rock M Nation for this improvement.

True Shooting %:  Per Basketball Reference, true shooting percentage is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.

Leverage:  Per Ken Pomeroymeasures how much is at stake on a particular possession.  Leverage is not based on what happened during the possession, but is the range of win probability based on what could have happened.  Learn more here.

DNP-CD:  Did Not Play – Coach’s Decision.  Healthy and otherwise eligible player who did not see any action in the game.