Beat Wichita State

Wichita St has lost only twice in the last two seasons.  The Billikens had as good a chance as anyone last December 1st, leading most of the way and in control.  SLU led 58-51 with under seven minutes, but wilted under the Shocker pressure.   Big free throws by Wichita St, missed threes by SLU, and the Shockers escaped The Chaif with a  70-65 to move to 8-0.

Let’s look at those two losses to see if there is anything the Bills can take into today’s matchup.

  • March 23, 2014:  Kentucky 78, Wichita St 76
  • This Wednesday: at Utah 69, Wichita St 68 (OT)

First the Kentucky game.  Seems like the trick here is to snag seven or twelve McDonald’s All-Americans on the way to Kansas, have them peak at the right time, and hit some ridiculously clutch shots.  Though SLU and Kentucky have a lot of similarities, that performance will be tough to replicate.

Now the Utah game.  I stayed up late to watch this one to conclusion.

Utah – WSU: First Half

Wichita St jumped out to a 10-0 start, only momentarily quelling a fired up Huntsman Center crowd watching two ranked teams battle for the first time this millenium.  Utah got back in the game largely on the strength of their two seven-footers.  Jakob Poeltl (pronounced “Jakob Poeltl”) was dominant, mostly as a roller on high pick-and-rolls.   Wichita St led only 33-29 at the half, despite the hot start.

Utah – WSU: Second Half

Out of the break, the first possession provided a glimpse of what was to come.  The Utes went right to Peoltl on the low block.  WSU doubled on the catch and forced him to kick it back out.  Right play by the big Austrian, but emblematic of how the Shockers were able to contain him.

With so much gravity in the paint, Utah smartly turned toward open 3s and drives.  They finished with 21 three point attempts, and 23 free throws.  On the defensive end, they mostly stuck to Ron Baker, forcing Fred Van Vleet to take the most shots.  The crowd was hype and the Utes were rolling, up 58-51 with less than two minutes to go.

Stop me if you have heard this story before.  The Shockers maintained their poise, hit clutch shots and wore down the home team.  Van Vleet was no longer struggling and suddenly in command, setting up Cotton for a three before nailing one of his own to put the Shockers up two with 36 seconds left, 60-58.  The go-ahead three was setup with a hesitation dribble and crossover, leaving FVV wide open to nail it.

Dakarai Tucker drove to the basket, drawing a foul and hitting two gigantic free throws.  Utah smartly slowed down the Shockers — the Utes had fouls to give at the ends of both halves, and employed them to terrific effect.  FVV launched an off-balance three that had no chance and we were off to Overtime.

Utah – WSU: Overtime

The most remarkable thing about the overtime was the jump ball.  Referee David Hall tossed the ball up, Poeltl controlled the tip as WSUs Shaq Morris swung for it and whacked Hall on top of the head.  He was clearly dazed and had to be helped from the floor.  I have never seen that before, and hope Mr Hall has no lingering effects.

Evan Wessel came to life in the extra period, hitting a big 3 and adding a block and drawing a foul on Poeltl.  His two free throws put WSU up 66-65.

Here is my near-asleep play-by-play notes from there:

  • B Taylor drive and bank and Utah up one 67-66.
  • Crazy knifing janky drive by Baker to 68-67 with 23 left
  • D Wright great move to back down FVV and hit a 13 footer.  Utah up 1 at 69-68
  • FVV takes it right back at him and draws a foul
  • FVV misses front end, Wessel misses the putback.  Quick foul.
  • Ahh, the old get-the-free-throw-miss-you-need-but-give-up-the-offensive-board-to-lose trick.  Reyes misses the front end but Poeltl grabs the offensive rebound.
Utah was really really good end of half, end of game possessions on defense.  They needed every bit of that precision, even with the home crowd, even with the free throw and foul advantage.
Summary
With all the trees up above, let’s pull back and take a look at the forest for a moment.  What will it take for SLU beat Wichita St today?  KenPom.com calculates a 95% probability the Shockers win it, and by a large margin 69-53.   Here at WAB, we believe the Billikens can win with the following:
  • A Poeltl-like performance from a big.  (I nominate Brent Jolly for this duty.)  Wichita St may have the best backcourt in the country, but their bigs are not terribly big and can be beaten.
  • Don’t give Baker an inch behind the line.  He is showing improved range and ability to make threes in tighter quarters.  (I nominate Davell Roby for this duty.)
  • Make Van Vleet shoot (this means you McBroom.  Deny the pass first)
  • Get to the line (this means you, Ash, Yarbrough and Agbeko)
  • Play loose and cool and with absolutely nothing to lose (this is an All Play.)

Don’t take it from me, your most humble WABmaster.  Listen to your elders: