NBK 2024: Second Round Sunday

Congratulations to NC State! The Wolfpack beat fellow NBK-er and reputed Cinderella school Oakland on Saturday night to book their first trip to the Sweet Sixteen since they implausably won it all back in 1983.

NBK Rankings — based on best-to-worst Sweet Sixteen Odds — and KenPom rankings through Saturday 3/24/2024. Sweet Sixteen Odds for the five schools playing Sunday are simply the Win Probability in their Round of 32 game – NC State won to secure their spot and graduate permanently from the ranks of the NBK. Win Probabilities calculated using KenPom Adjusted Offensive & Defensive Efficiency ratings.

SUNDAY

#2 Grand Canyon (33%) vs Alabama – 6:10 pm CDT on TBS
The Antelopes boast a strong defense (#9 in Effective FG% per KenPom), and used it Friday to harass (5) Saint Mary’s to a shooting line of .45/.28/.56. The Gaels focus heavily on Offensive Rebounding, both creating and preventing, and were successful in limiting what is normally a Grand Canyon strength. But the Antelopes best skill is in getting to the foul line (#3 in FTA/FGA per KenPom) and they leveraged it to go 28 of 32 from the charity stripe and win handily 75-66. (4) Alabama comes in as one of the top-scoring teams, led by dynamic point guard Mark Sears. The Lopes will need to slow things down, retrieve their misses, protect the paint, and get to the line to punch their ticket to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time ever.

Black dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Antelopes’ opening round upset of Saint Mary’s on 3/22/2024. Current Lopes in Bold.


#3 Yale (24%) vs San Diego St. – 8:40 pm CDT on TBS
The Bulldogs rode the hot shooting of John Poulakidas (28 points) and weathered the foul trouble of top scorer Danny Wolf to close strong and knock off a very good (4) Auburn team. The Tigers had about eight different chances to tie it in the last minute, but could not convert. (5) San Diego St. presents another tough defense for Yale to solve.

Black dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Bulldogs’ opening round upset of Auburn on 3/22/2024. Current Dogs in Bold.


#4 James Madison (23%) vs Duke – 4:15 pm CDT on CBS
The Dukes take the nation’s longest win streak (14 straight) into their matchup with (4) Duke.

Current Dukes in Bold. Gray dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Dukes’ opening round upset of Wisconsin on 3/22/2024.


#5 Utah St. (21%) vs Purdue – 1:40 pm CDT on CBS
Great Osobor was good against (9) TCU (13 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists), but Isaac Johnson was great (19 points, 4 rebounds, 4 blocks) and KenPom gave the game MVP to Ian Martinez (21 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, a block & a steal). The second round matchup will be a referendum on Minutes Continuity – (1) Purdue (70% in Minutes Continuity per KenPom) brought back most of their guys including 2x National Player of the Year Zach Edey; Utah St. (0.1%) started from nothing after a coaching change.

Current Aggies in Bold. Gray dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Aggies’ opening round win over TCU on 3/22/2024.


#6 Northwestern (17%) vs UConn – 6:45 pm CDT on TruTV
In the absence of sidelined seven-footer Matthew Nicholson, the Wildcats shared the ball (20 assists) and got above-average contriubutions from most to knock off the (8) Florida Atlantic Owls (NBK Class of 2023) in overtime. They face the tallest task of our remaining teams, defending-champion and heavy betting favorite (1) UConn.

Current Cats in Bold. Gray dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Wildcats’ opening round OT win over FAU on 3/22/2024.


Enjoy the games!

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and Basketball Reference and RealGM.com
Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here
Plot format by Aaron Baggett
Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy
Inspiration from Rock M Nation
Team colors courtesy:
Benjamin S. Baumer and Gregory J. Matthews (2020). teamcolors: Color Palettes for Pro Sports Teams. R package version 0.0.4.