The field is set! Joey Brackets once again only missed one (congratulations Virginia, our condolences Oklahoma). And this year’s bracket contains 29 schools that have never made it to the Sweet Sixteen in the years since the field was first expanded to 64 teams back in 1985. These teams are the Never Been Kissed (NBK), and in this First Four Eve post we rank them from most- to least-likely to make it to the second weekend for the first time ever (asterisk).
As per annual tradition, last year all of our predictions about who would emerge were wrong. We liked TCU, NC State and Kennesaw St. — one win between the three of them — but instead it was Florida Atlantic (17% chance) and Princeton (3%) who made it to the Sweet Sixteen, with FAU going on to the Final Four. Undaunted by our failed past, we will again make three picks: one from #1-10 in our rankings, and one each from #11-20 and #21-29.
New Mexico stands out as a particularly attractive pick this year, clawing their way to the top spot in the NBK Rankings. The Lobos limped into the Mountain West Conference tournament and were a likely bet to not get a bid at all, but rendered all the mock brackets moot by taking the MWC crown. They typically play with a high pace (#8 in Tempo per KenPom), and MWC tourney foes Air Force, San Diego St., and Colorado St. were successfuly in slowing them down, but no one was able to stop them. UNM will open as an unlikely favorite, with the (11) New Mexico favored to beat the (6) Clemson. We are less excited about a second round date with (3) Baylor, but anything can happen.
From the next tier we like Samford to advance to the second weekend. Seth Davis’s comments about this pod were astute — pointing out depth being the strength of Samford and depth being the weakness of Kansas, and this game at altitude in Salt Lake City. A recipe for an upset, plus we never like to miss a chance to slag Kansas wherever possible. With equal parts analysis and spite, we go with the Bulldogs to upset Kansas and then out-Bulldog Gonzaga in round two to graduate from the NBK for good.
In the longshots cohort, Colgate really stands out as a hedge against our New Mexico bet. But since both can’t make it, we will pick Long Beach St. There is no logical reason to pick The Beach, as both (2) Arizona and (7) Dayton and even lesser potential second-round foe (10) Nevada would seem to have no reason to struggle to beat Long Beach. In his game-by-game prediction analysis, Jay Bilas termed LBSU as a conventional team. By all metrics and measures that is true. But if ever a team wanted to play unconventionally, if ever a coach was going to go full-on WTF and just try any sort of crazy stuff…this is just the team and the coach to do it. Before the start of the Big West Conference tournament, coach Dan Monson — yes, the same one of Gonzaga & Minnesota fame — was informed he would be canned after its conclusion. Then they went and won the whole damn thing. So here they are – why not go nuts? One-man zone? Sure. Run and gun? Why not. Super small ball? Absolutely. Giant apocalypse? Hell yes. Arizona and Dayton won’t know what hit ’em.
Data courtesy Kenpom.com