With SLU on the dark side and the future uncertain for the Billikens, let’s turn our attention to teams very much alive this year. Teams who are looking to break through to the second weekend. Teams who have only watched the Sweet Sixteen, but have Never Been Kissed themselves.

Last year saw two programs hit such heights: 15-seed Princeton upset Arizona & Missouri to make the second weekend, and 9-seed Florida Atlantic topped Memphis & Fairleigh Dickenson to also advance. The Owls did not stop there though, beating Tennessee & Kansas St to get to the third weekend. NBK to Final Four – FAU in 2023 matched the feat of Loyola Chicago in 2018.

This year’s batch of hopefuls once again includes many from the Mountain West (Colorado St, New Mexico, Utah St & Boise St), NBK Stalwarts (TCU, SMU & UC-Irvine), and even promising Big Ten contenders (Nebraska & Northwestern). Beyond the MWC, the Missouri Valley and Sun Belt conferences have the most intrigue here, each with two contenders but historically just the one spot reserved in the tourney. Indiana St & Drake are neck-and-neck in the MVC standings as well as in the KenPom rankings. Sun Belt leader Appalachian St had a flashy non-conference win over Auburn and hold a one-game lead on James Madison, while the computers favor the Dukes at the moment.

St Mary’s is running away with the WCC, and usual hegemon Gonzaga is in an unfamiliar spot on the wrong side of the bubble, but the NBK has its watchful eye on WCC #3 San Francisco. Chris Gerlufsen’s Dons won’t get an at-large berth so they will need to take the WCC tournament from the big two.

ESPN Bubble Watch ($) gives zero shot to middling major conference teams like UCF and N.C. State, but we will not give up on them just yet. Keep a close eye on this space as teams play their way out of NBK consideration, and others play their way in.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and ESPN Bracketology and ESPN Bubble Watch ($)