NBK Update: Tournament Day 3 2021

Tinkle family powers….activate! Oregon St wins! First Sweet Sixteen appearance for the Beavers since 1982. Things got ugly in this one, but in the end OSU followed an age-old upset formula to take out Oklahoma St.

Keys to victory:

  • Turn it over 20 times
  • Record just 7 assists
  • Shoot 30% from three
  • Make 1,000 free throws

Oregon St. turned it into a Free Throw contest and dominated in that regard, going 32-35 from the stripe including 15-16 from Ethan Thompson. Old Syracuse fans threw up in their mouths a little reading that. Survive and advance. Well done, Beavs.

Oral Roberts wins in a second straight huge upset, this time over 7-seed Florida. The Golden Eagles — as the fourth-place finisher in the Summit, a 15 seed, and 150+ in the KenPom — were not even on the radar of the NBK committe before this historic win. Maybe we owe them an apology? Nah, we’re good. Congrats to the players and that’s all.

With these two off to bigger and better, let’s check in with those whose journey continues. North Texas raced out to a 21-13 lead over #5 Villanova, but the Wildcats restored order quickly and were up 20 at the half, never to look back.

Rutgers‘ loss was a heartbreaker for NBK fans. The #9 Scarlet Knights fought toe-to-toe with #2 Houston and were up 10 with 9:00 to play 52-42. Then the Cougs found a few cracks in the vaunted Rutgers defense, and got the stops and offensive rebounds they needed to eek out a win 63-60. The ‘gers seem to finally have something good going, and we expect them at or near the top of the NBK in 2022.

Monday

  • #5 Creighton a strong favorite vs #12 Ohio. You may be wondering about the Bobcats status vis-a-vis the NBK; we know we were after ORU and OSU. Ohio made the Sweet Sixteen in 2012, beating Michigan and South Florida and in the process vaulting coach John Groce to the Illinois job. Three point shooting is often decisive, but Creighton and Ohio are two of the top 2-Point shooting teams in the country (#11 and #10). If Ohio can block a few shots early and force Creighton into a perimeter attack, they might pull this one off and keep the Bluejays in the NBK one more year.
  • #5 Colorado is an even match with #4 Florida St. Both shoot the three well, and while Florida St. is super-deep and super-long (#1 in Average Height), Colorado has a decided advantage at the Free Throw line (#2 in FT% at 82.3%). We’ll see if the Seminole depth (hey now) can take the Buff legs out from under them.
  • #13 Abilene Christian a longshot vs #11 UCLA, though to me this one is more even than meets the eye. Virtually everything that the Bruins do well on offense, the Wildcats do well on D. The UCLA turnover count will be one to watch at their offensive end, as Abilene is best in the nation at forcing (27.0%, #1). And the Wildcats lone offensive strength 3-Point Shooting % (37.0, #45) is notoriously volatile and upset lover’s catnip.
NBK Rankings through Day 2 of the 2021 NCAA Tournament. These schools have not made the second weekend of the tourney since the field was first expanded to 64 back in 1985, therefore no Sweet Sixteen, and Never Been Kissed. Oregon St and Spoken Bob changed all that on Sunday night, and they Have Been Kissed.

Notes

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and NCAA.org. For “KenPom Sweet Sixteen Odds” since we are now in Round 2 and on the brink of Sweet Sixteen glory, the KenPom odds ($) are of winning the second round game itself.