Saint Louis University, darlings of the NET ending 2020, have come off their COVID layoff with an extreme hangover. Consecutive losses to Dayton and LaSalle have the Bills tangled in the NET (#52 from a peak of #10) and flopping down the KenPom (#54 from a more-modest peak of #26). They sit last in the Atlantic 10 at 0-2 and host the first-place and surprising St Bonaventure Bonnies on Saturday at Chaifetz Arena. The Super Bon Bons were no one’s pick to win the A-10 this year, started their season way late due to COVID delays — they only managed two non-conference games — but have continued to win and climb the charts. They are the bizarro Billikens.
Like Dayton last week, the Bonnies have the peculiar statistical distinction of holding their opponents to a low Free Throw % (62.3%, #5 in KenPom). How that manifested itself in the Bills-Flyers game were French and Goodwin chucking a combined 4-11 from the stripe in a game SLU lost by 5.
On an individual level, SBU continues to be one of the Jalen-est schools in the country, with two on the current roster (Adaway and Shaw) following in the footsteps of Adams, Adams, and Poyser. The Bonnies are pretty well balanced, relying heavily on their starting five but spreading the load in terms of usage rate and go-to-guyness. In their only loss to Rhode Island, guard Jaren Holmes played just one minute so maybe we call him first among equals.
With both teams sporting a good mix of guards and wings, the battle down low may prove decisive. Osun Osunniyi is a terrific rebounder on both ends and a very good shot-blocker. At 6’10” he is much taller than the Bills bigs. If he imposes his will on Hasahn French and controls the paint, SLU may be forced to try to win the game from the outside. The Bills have shot reasonably well from three this year but remain reluctant to let it fly (#332 in 3PA/FGM), as are the Bonnies (#338).
SBU is loaded with Juniors, so expect them to follow up this surprising season entering 2021-22 as prohibitive favorites in the Atlantic 10.
References
Data from Basketball Reference and Ken Pomeroy and the NCAA
Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html
Plot format by Aaron Baggett: https://baseballwithr.wordpress.com/2015/02/17/conceptualizing-the-mlb-strike-zone-using-pitchfx-data/
Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy: http://kenpom.com/
Inspiration from Rock M Nation: http://www.rockmnation.com/missouri-tigers-basketball