The Women’s final on Friday night was anticlimatic, with South Carolina dominating Texas, and UConn dismantling UCLA. What lies ahead for the men? Well all four #1 seeds made the Final Four for only the second time in history, and the last time produced an utterly tragic result (kansas winning),, so we are prepared for the worst.
Florida (52%) vs Auburn – 5:09 PM CDT on CBS
With 3:14 remaining in their Elite Eight game, star forward JT Toppin of Texas Tech made a layup to put the Red Raiders up 75-66. and Florida’s dream season teetered. Over the next two minutes, Walter Clayton Jr assisted on two Thomas Haugh threes then made two threes of his own, one a ridiculous dribble out step back fadeaway. Florida made their free throws down the stretch and punched their ticket to San Antonio.
Clayton Jr is the Gators best player and currently #3 in KenPom Player of the Year. He’s expected to carry Florida. Haugh is the sixth-man who has far exceeded his normal output in the tournament, in particular in the Elite Eight. Alijah Martin is the steady veteran who has been there before (Florida Atlantic 2023). Martin did not play in the Gators’ 90-81 regular season win over SEC foe Auburn — Aberdeen started in his place — so Clayton and Haugh carried the load in that one as well.
After Michigan St lost to Auburn in the Elite Eight, Spartans coach Tom Izzo said in his interview he felt like they did a good job containing everything that Auburn can do….except Johni Broome was unstoppable. The chart below backs that up — Broome’s dominant performance carried all the other Tigers suffering through below-average games. Auburn got by the first three rounds with Broome not at his best, then he took over in round four.
Duke (57%) vs Houston – 7:49 PM CDT on CBS
Cooper Flagg is the newly-minted Wooden Award winner and will be the #1 pick in the NBA Draft in June. He was not very good in the Elite Eight against Alabama — 16 points, 9 rebounds but just 6-16 from the field with 4 turnovers — and it just didn’t matter. Last year we noted how UConn had all five of their starters who performed above the Kemba Walker / Shabazz Napier level. This year’s Duke team has three starters above the Jayson Tatum / Brandon Ingram level, and with Flagg up among fellow number one picks Kyrie Irving and Marvin Bagley III, the talent level of the Blue Devils is impressive and might be championship-level.
So how did this 35-3 juggernaut ever lose? Kentucky held them to 16% three-point shooting; Kansas limited their offensive boards and turned them over 16 times; Clemson somehow pounded it inside and controlled the glass on both ends.
Houston has been our bracket pick three years running, and the Cougars finally rewarded our loyalty with a Final Four run. Houston’s #1 defense goes up against Duke’s #1 offense. Houston has tons of experience and loads of Minutes Continuity (#7 per KenPom). Duke’s team just met one another, but they are huge and young and talented. Somehow 6’8″ J’Wan Roberts and 6’8″ Joseph Tugler have to battle to a draw the Duke giants 7’2″ Khaman Maluach and 6’11” Patrick Ngongba.
Data courtesy Kenpom.com and Basketball Reference
Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here
Plot format by Aaron Baggett
Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy
Inspiration from Rock M Nation
Team colors courtesy:Benjamin S. Baumer and Gregory J. Matthews (2020). teamcolors: Color Palettes for Pro Sports Teams. R package version 0.0.4