With the first round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament complete, we check in on those teams looking to make their first trip to the Sweet Sixteen since the tourney first expanded to 64 teams in 1985. These are the Never Been Kissed.
FRIDAY Wins!
With 15:54 remaining in the second half, Memphis action hero Dain Dainja made 1 of 2 free throws to give the Tigers a 46-42 lead, and the Colorado St hopes of ever making the Sweet Sixteen were starting to fade. Then Nique Clifford setup reserve Kyle Jorgensen for a three, Kyan Evans hit a spicy triple of his own, and Clifford hit a two. Clifford got a steal and fed Bowen Born for the layup. The 10-2 run flipped the game and suddenly Memphis was chasing Colorado St. Evans hit two more threes down the stretch and the Rams made enough free throws to keep the Tigers at bay and prevail 78-70. Memphis minus Tyrese Hunter did not have the three-point shooting (just 26%) to keep pace. The Rams move on to face impressive (4) Maryland on Sunday.
Friday’s slate featured but one true upset, authored by NBK hopeful New Mexico. The Lobos battled Marquette to a virtual draw through 34 back-and-forth minutes before a Nelly Junior Joseph layup sparked a 10-0 run and established a cushion New Mexico would not reliquish. Point guard Donovan Dent steadied himself down the stretch after a rough start, and the Lobos were able to survive the hot shooting of the Golden Eagles’ David Joplin — 6-10 from three for 28 points — to win 75-66 and move on to the second round on Sunday. There they will face a determined (2) Michigan St.
Chalk days are bad days for the NBK, and the rest of our cohort had it very rough. Skip down past the rankings if you are morbidly curious about the rest of Friday’s results. Meanwhile….
SATURDAY Previews
(12) McNeese (28%) vs (4) Purdue – 11:10 AM CST – CBS
McNeese and lame duck coach / NIL pioneer Will Wade take on last year’s runner-up Purdue in the first game of the day. Perhaps most remarkable about the Cowboys opening round win 69-67 over Clemson was just how unremarkable most of the individual performances were. Brandon Murray came off the bench and stuffed the stats — 21 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals — and Christian Shumate was good as usual with a double-double, but most of McNeese‘s top players underperformed. Purdue is a very bad matchup for McNeese, as their primary weakness is interior defense, an area of which the Cowboys are poorly-equipped to take advantage. McNeese surprised Clemson in the first round by playing zone for the first time all year, and Clemson took about thirty-five minutes of game time to get their bearings. Wade will need a new surprise to spring today, else the Pokes will be sent packing and he will be wearing NC State Wolfpack gear by sunset. You know what mom always said: where there’s a Will, there’s a Wade. And a sneaker deal.
Before we move on to the next matchup, let’s have a moment of appreciation for the career of Zach Edey, now a rookie with the Memphis Grizzlies. Edey’s insane Avg Game Score per 40 of 25+ is only eclipsed by his incredible consistency — look how narrow of a range he performed in below. What a stalwart. Also of note – in Braden Smith (#9) and Trey Kaufmann-Renn (#10) the Boilers have two of the top candidates for the KenPom Player of the Year award. A rarity to have two players likely to be the best guy on the floor for any given game.
(11) Drake (23%) vs (3) Texas Tech – 5:10 PM CST – TNT
When Darian DeVries left Drake for West Virginia and took son Tucker with him, the Bulldogs turned to Division II legend Ben McCollum to run the show. In came D2 transfers Bennett Stirtz & Tavion Banks as well as Wyoming transfer Cam Manyawu and an entirely new supporting cast, and 31 wins later Drake is on the verge of their first Sweet Sixteen since 1971. Texas Tech stands in their way. For a recipe for how to beat the Red Raiders, Drake should review the tape of TCU’s 69-66 upset from 2/18: the Horned Frogs won the turnover battle, crashed the offensive boards, and shot 22 free throws to Tech’s mere 8. All these categories suggest the key will be for Drake to be agressive, be be aggressive. B-E-A-G-G RRRR-E-SS-I-V-E aggressive. Be, be aggressive.
In a long line of recent Red Raiders going to the NBA – Zhaire Smith, Jarrett Culver & Jahmi’us Ramsey among others – it stands notable that JT Toppin has so clearly out-performed all before him. Toppin is currently #5 in the KenPom Player of the Year rankings, and if he or Darrion Williams are the best player on Saturday it will be too much for Drake to overcome. (We’ll see Toppin again in this format tomorrow, as he transferred to Texas Tech after a year at New Mexico.) The Red Raiders have played the last two without Chance McMillian, expected to be a game-time decision for this one.
FRIDAY’s Losses
Robert Morris controlled the glass and cut the Alabama lead to just one with seven minutes remaining, but Crimson Tide veterans Mark Sears and Grant Nelson were too much and closed out the thin Colonials. Bama won 80-81. Liberty fell behind and shot 22% from three, losing 81-52 to Oregon. Troy Bolton had its head in the game and kept it interesting for a half, but Kentucky shot 39% from three and the Trojans were only even with the Wildcats on the boards. Kentucky beat Troy 76-57. Lipscomb looked game for the first ten minutes, but could not get to the line enough to offset their 17 turnovers and fell to Iowa St 82-55.
A good shot-blocking Akron team registered only four blocks and in turn had nine of their own tries stuffed by Arizona, who also shot a healthy 61% from two-point range and won easily 93-65. Grand Canyon was down 20 points early against Maryland, and it did not matter that neither team could make a free throw. The Terps rolled 81-49. Bryant hung in for fifteen minutes versus Michigan St and held the Spartans to 48% from two overall, but Sparty dominated the offensive boards and were too deep for the Bulldogs. They pulled away to win comfortably 87-62. Norfolk St & Mount St Mary’s both lost the opening tip, and never recovered versus overwhelming favorites Florida & Duke, respectively. Cooper Flagg, Tyrese Proctor & Khaman Maluach were too good, and the Blue Devils were way too connected to have any trouble at all.
Data courtesy Kenpom.com and Basketball Reference
Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here
Plot format by Aaron Baggett
Inspiration from Rock M Nation and Bill Connelly
Team colors courtesy:Benjamin S. Baumer and Gregory J. Matthews (2020). teamcolors: Color Palettes for Pro Sports Teams. R package version 0.0.4