THURSDAY Review
With a minute remaining and their double-digit lead whittled to two possessions, new NBK leader Drake put the ball in the hands of their ironman point guard Bennett Stirtz. Stirtz broke the Missouri press and attacked Mark Mitchell, flinging a lob to Tavion Banks for the decisive dunk and the upset was sealed. Drake won the steals battle 13 to 8 but more importantly forced the Tigers into a very poor shooting night from the field: 38% from two, 25% from three. Mizzou stayed somewhat in it by living at the foul line — 23 for 26 — but it was clear from the start that Stirtz was the best player on the floor. The Bulldogs move on to face (3) Texas Tech on Saturday.
In our Thursday preview post yesterday, we did not see any clear path for how McNeese could upset Clemson. The Cowboys saw a very clear path, which was “let’s play zone for the first time all year and make Clemson forget how to play offense for about an hour”. McNeese was up 31-13 at half, and maintained a double-digit lead until less than four minutes left. A too-late Clemson flurry made the final score 69-67 look way more respectable than it was. The Cowboys will take on (4) Purdue on Saturday.
UC San Diego did win the turnover battle — forcing 14 by Michigan while committing only 8 themselves — and even took a brief lead with under three minutes left in the second half. Then Tre Donaldson answered with a massive three-pointer and the Wolverines never trailed again, surviving 68-65. Triton top scorer Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones had a rough night, fouling out with just 7 points.
If Utah St vs UCLA truly was a bracket bellwether, defense will rule the first round. The Bruins held the Aggies to 13% three-point shooting on the night and cruised 72-47.
Yale shot it reasonably well from deep (38%), but Texas A&M controlled the boards and got an incredible boost off the bench from Pharrel Payne. The 6’9″ junior went for a career high 25 points on 10-12 from two-point range and 5-6 from the free throw line. He added 10 rebounds for the unexpected double-double.
High Point trailed most of the game against Purdue, but cut the lead to three with eight minutes left before Purdue pulled away to win 75-63. The Panthers shot it well — 52% from two, 36% from three — but were manhandled on the boards. Purdue rebounded a terrific 79% of High Point‘s misses and a ridiculous 53% of their own.
Wofford‘s only hope seemed to be to decisively win the Offensive Rebounding battle. They were OK on the offensive glass, retrieving 33% of their own misses, but Tennessee controlled the action more broadly and cruised 77-62.
Montana and Wisconsin were both only so-so (30%) from three point range, but the Badgers dominated inside the arc shooting 73% from two and pulled away for an 85-66 final margin.
Omaha were completely stifled by St John’s top-ranked defense, shooting 38% from two and 14% from three and going down 83-53.
SIUE & Alabama St put up little resistance to number one seeds Houston & Auburn, respectively, ending their playoff runs.
FRIDAY Preview
Colorado St vs Memphis is a virtual draw on paper – both teams are pretty balanced between offense and defense, both shoot reasonably well but not lights-out, and their rebounding and ball-control statistics line up well with one-another. Even Steven. Coin flip. But once you remove Memphis top shooter and nine-game NCAA Tournament veteran Tyrese Hunter from the Tigers lineup, the scales appear to tip decidedly in favor of the Rams. Only a three-point barrage from Tiger guards PJ Haggerty & Colby Rogers are likely to bring the Rams to heel.
New Mexico similarly has an opportunity on Friday to face a team on the decline. Marquette ran through their non-conference with wins over Purdue, Maryland, Georgia & Wisconsin and finished the first half of Big East action 9-1. In January they were looking like 1- or 2-seed material. March looks very different. The Golden Eagles went 4-6 in the second half of conference and bowed out of the Big East tournament quietly. Player of the Year candidate Kam Jones has remained strong but the rest of the club has regressed over the past two months.
Liberty is all about the three-pointer, as they shoot it well and often, and also hold opponents to just 28% from deep (#2 in the country per KenPom). But Oregon does not rely heavily on the three and hold a huge size advantage over the Flames.
Troy matches up poorly with Kentucky. The best thing the Trojans do is grab Offensive Rebounds (#6), which aligns with one of many Wildcat strengths (#23 in preventing ORs). Troy allows a high shooting percentage of threes and Kentucky shoots it well from distance, so a huge off-night may be their only hope.
Lipscomb‘s best hope is to live at the Free Throw line, as they shoot freebies at nearly 80% and Iowa St tends to foul guards. Grabbing an early lead and making a parade to the charity stripe looks like their best path to Sunday.
Akron‘s undersized centers 6’7″ Amani Lyles & 6’8″ James Okonkwo are both gifted shot blockers, and Arizona does not feature a great three-point shooting team. If the Zips can protect the paint and contain the Wildcats from mid-range, they stand a chance to survive and advance.
Similar to Lipscomb, Grand Canyon is likely going to have to feast at the Free Throw line to get past Maryland. The Lopes are good at getting there (#7 in FTA/FGA) but oddly only so-so at converting (#128 in FT%).
(Erick) Bryant, like Akron, have a raft of talented shot-blockers. Michigan St is strong at shot-blocking themselves, but the Big Ten overall is relatively light in this category. Maybe the Bulldogs’ interior defense gives the Spartans fits.
Robert Morris has an edge in Offensive Rebounds over Alabama, but it’s hard to envision a scenario where that’s enough for them to get over the Crimson Tide.
Norfolk St played one of the easiest schedules in the country and have to face maybe the hottest team in Florida.
Mount St Mary’s comes off their First Four win over American to face Duke with a likely-healthy Cooper Flagg.
FRIDAY – Round One
(12) Colorado St. (53%) vs (5) Memphis – 1 PM CST
(10) New Mexico (39%) vs (7) Marquette – 6:25 PM CST
(12) Liberty (34%) vs (5) Oregon – 9:10 PM CST
(14) Troy (16%) vs (3) Kentucky – 6:10 PM CST
(14) Lipscomb (14%) vs (3) Iowa St. – 12:30 PM CST
(13) Akron (13%) vs (4) Arizona – 6:35 PM CST
(13) Grand Canyon (12%) vs (4) Maryland – 2:35 PM CST
(15) Bryant (6%) vs (2) Michigan St. – 9 PM CST
(15) Robert Morris (6%) vs (2) Alabama – 11:40 AM CST
(16) Norfolk St. (2%) vs (1) Florida – 5:50 PM CST
(16) Mount St Mary’s (1%) vs (1) Duke – 1:50 PM CST
All ranking data courtesy Kenpom.com, with his Offensive & Defensive Efficiency numbers used to calculate our Win Probabilities. Anyone actually reading this should subscribe.