The field of 64 is set. Wednesday night, American lost to Mount St Mary’s after leading Eagle Matt Rogers twisted his knee just four minutes in. He did not return and the Mountaineers’ Jedy Cordilia went 10-11 from the field with 7 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 steals as MSM won 83-72. In non-NBK action, Xavier came back to beat Texas 86-80 .
Thursday’s action has UC San Diego as our group’s best bet to make it to Saturday. The Tritons thrive on winning the turnover battle — #4 in (highest) Steal % defense, #4 in (lowest) Steal % offense per KenPom $ — so the Michigan guards Tre Donaldson & Roddy Gayle will be put to the test. If the Wolverines can get into their half-court sets, their unique two-man-seven-footer game with 7’0″ Danny Wolf — of Yale fame last year — and 7’1″ Vladislav Golden might confound UCSD and send them through instead.
Utah St vs UCLA will be a good bellwether as to whether offense or defense are more important in round one. USU are #17 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency; UCLA are #17 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom.
Drake vs Missouri features two of the top stealing defenses, with the Bulldogs #1 and the Tigers #9.
We don’t see a clear path for how McNeese can upset Clemson — the Cowboys are an experienced club (#28 in Experience) and made the tourney last year, but Clemson is even more experienced (#8) and made it to the Elite Eight last year.
Yale shoot it well from deep — #9 in Three Point % — and Texas A&M shoot it terribly (#317). This seems like a too-obvious recipe for a first round upset. The Aggies have been terrific this year in the historically-tough SEC but faded a bit down the stretch.
High Point and Purdue both feather strong offenses, and though the Boilermakers defense is much stronger overall than the Panthers’, they do have one big hole. Purdue is #350 in defensive 2-point FG%, so High Point’s ability to score inside may prove decisive in the upset.
Wofford‘s best skill is Offensive Rebounding, but Tennessee similarly excels in preventing Offensive Rebounds.
Montana shoots it very well, but play absolutely no defense. And unlike most year’s, this Wisconsin squad is pretty adept offensively themselves.
Omaha has a capable offense but run into St John’s and their top-ranked defense.
SIUE has already won, making their first-ever tournament. Alabama St has literally won, winning a thrilling First Four game. We don’t see any path for them to win today….but that’s why they play the games! Best of luck to all the NBKers, and may your brackets remain unbroken!
THURSDAY – Round One
(12) UC San Diego (39%) vs (5) Michigan – 9 PM CST
(10) Utah St. (31%) vs (7) UCLA – 8:25 PM CST
(11) Drake (29%) vs (6) Missouri – 6:35 PM CST
(12) McNeese (26%) vs (5) Clemson – 2:15 PM CST
(13) High Point (19%) vs (4) Purdue – 11:40 AM CST
(13) Yale (19%) vs (4) Texas A&M – 6:25 PM CST
(14) UNC Wilmington (9%) vs (3) Texas Tech – 9:10 PM CST
(14) Montana (7%) vs (3) Wisconsin – 12:30 PM CST
(15) Wofford (5%) vs (2) Tennessee – 5:50 PM CST
(15) Nebraska Omaha (5%) vs (2) St. John’s – 8:45 PM CST
(16) SIUE (2%) vs (1) Houston – 1 PM CST
(16) Alabama St (1%) vs (1) Auburn – 1:50 PM CST
FRIDAY – Round One
(15) Robert Morris vs (2) Alabama – 11:40 AM CST
(14) Lipscomb vs (3) Iowa St. – 12:30 PM CST
(12) Colorado St. vs (5) Memphis – 1 PM CST
(13) Grand Canyon vs (4) Maryland – 2:35 PM CST
(16) Norfolk St. vs (1) Florida – 5:50 PM CST
(14) Troy vs (3) Kentucky – 6:10 PM CST
(10) New Mexico vs (7) Marquette – 6:25 PM CST
(13) Akron vs (4) Arizona – 6:35 PM CST
(15) Bryant vs (2) Michigan St. – 9 PM CST
(12) Liberty vs (5) Oregon – 9:10 PM CST
(16) AMER/MSM vs (1) Duke – TBD
All ranking data courtesy Kenpom.com, with his Offensive & Defensive Efficiency numbers used to calculate our Win Probabilities. Anyone actually reading this should subscribe.