Well none of our three desperate hopefuls made it in this time. Boise St, UC Irvine & North Texas all were on the outside looking in when the brackets were revealed on Sunday. We fed the brackets into the WAB supercomputer and asked it to produce a list of the team’s most likely to earn their first Sweet Sixteen berth since the tournament first expanded to 64 teams back in 1985. Behold, the Never Been Kissed (NBK) rankings as the tournament opens.
Colorado St is looking like the best bet. Though just a 12-seed, the Mountain West champs are slightly favored in their first game vs 5-seed Memphis, with 4-seed Maryland looking like a tough round two opponent. Not far behind the Rams are UC San Diego. This year’s most-hyped Cinderella, the Tritons have an experienced club in their first year of D1 tournament eligibility.
New Mexico also has a double-digit percentage chance of reaching round two, by our calculations. They will look to push the pace against struggling Marquette and potentially Michigan St.
McNeese & Yale have somewhat favorable second round matchups if they can get by their first hurdle. Yale pulled a big upset last year over Auburn and will look to repeat the feat against Texas A&M.
Sweet Sixteen trivia question:
Q: School with the most modern Sweet Sixteen appearances that did not make this year’s tournament?
A: Syracuse has 16 since 1985 but limped to a 14-19 finish this year
Shoutout to NBK schools making their first appeareance in the NCAAs: UC San Diego, High Point, Nebraska Omaha & SIUE. And back after a very long absence is Saint Francis (PA), making it for the first time since 1991.
TUESDAY – First Four
(16) Alabama St. (59%) vs (16) Saint Francis – 5:40 PM CST
WEDNESDAY – First Four
(16) American (52%) vs (16) Mount St. Mary’s – 5:40 PM CST
THURSDAY – Round One
(13) High Point vs (4) Purdue – 11:40 AM CST
(14) Montana vs (3) Wisconsin – 12:30 PM CST
(16) SIUE vs (1) Houston – 1 PM CST
(12) McNeese vs (5) Clemson – 2:15 PM CST
(15) Wofford vs (2) Tennessee – 5:50 PM CST
(13) Yale vs (4) Texas A&M – 6:25 PM CST
(11) Drake vs (6) Missouri – 6:35 PM CST
(10) Utah St. vs (7) UCLA – 8:25 PM CST
(15) Nebraska Omaha vs (2) St. John’s – 8:45 PM CST
(12) UC San Diego vs (5) Michigan – 9 PM CST
(14) UNC Wilmington vs (3) Texas Tech – 9:10 PM CST
(16) STF vs (1) Auburn – TBD
FRIDAY – Round One
(15) Robert Morris vs (2) Alabama – 11:40 AM CST
(14) Lipscomb vs (3) Iowa St. – 12:30 PM CST
(12) Colorado St. vs (5) Memphis – 1 PM CST
(13) Grand Canyon vs (4) Maryland – 2:35 PM CST
(16) Norfolk St. vs (1) Florida – 5:50 PM CST
(14) Troy vs (3) Kentucky – 6:10 PM CST
(10) New Mexico vs (7) Marquette – 6:25 PM CST
(13) Akron vs (4) Arizona – 6:35 PM CST
(15) Bryant vs (2) Michigan St. – 9 PM CST
(12) Liberty vs (5) Oregon – 9:10 PM CST
(16) AMER/MSM vs (1) Duke – TBD
Data courtesy Kenpom.com and ESPN Bracketology and ESPN Bubble Watch ($)