McNeese lost to Purdue 76-62, a score that belies how dominant the Boilermakers were through the majority of this game. Purdue jumped out to a 20-8 lead and were mostly up more than twenty points before the Cowboys desperation shots started falling too too late. Sincere Parker tried to supply the spark off the bench, a la Brandon Murray in round one, but Parker’s 17 points were nowhere near enough to keep this one from getting out of hand. McNeese concludes the fruitful Will Wade era with two straight NCAA appearances and perhaps establish themselves as a stair-step program to attract the next up-and-coming or recently-disgraced coach with Wade leaving tracks for NC State. Trey Kaufman-Renn was absolutely unstoppable for Purdue down low: 22 points and 15 rebounds. The (4) Boilermakers face (1) Houston next.

Drake vs Texas Tech was more competitive. The Bulldogs forced some early missed shots and were tied 18-18 after ten minutes when the Red Raiders ripped off a 13-2 run to forge a 37-30 halftime lead. Drake never got within five points of TT in the second half and ultimately fell 77-64. The inside game of Texas Tech allowed them to shoot 2-14 from three and still win comfortably, as 6’9″ JT Toppin was his usual self — 25 points, 12 rebounds — and 6’6″ Darrion Williams was his best self with 28 points, 6 rebounds & 5 assists. Drake point guard Bennett Stirtz apparently has a year of eligibility left — we’ll see if he runs it back or looks to upgrade his stock in the portal. The (3) Red Raiders will go on to battle (7) Arkansas, after Coach Cal’s inaugural club took out (2) St. John’s.

SUNDAY Previews

(10) New Mexico (24%) vs (2) Michigan St – 7:40 PM CST – TNT

New Mexico takes on Michigan St in a battle of two strong defensive teams. The Lobos — #19 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency per KenPom — seek to control the interior, limiting offensive rebounds and blocking shots, while the Spartans — #5 in the same metric — completely shut down three point shooting (27.1% for #1 nationally) and also look to limit offensive rebounds. New Mexico plays very quickly (#6 in Adjusted Tempo) but this year’s Spartan team is not as sluggish as the past two — mid-tempo overall and have been operating all March at a pace similar to the Lobos’. To our eye, Michigan St looks like a more-complete version of New Mexico, and the best upset recipe for UNM is turning Sparty over, using their height advantage, and making hay at the foul line — these are the themes running through the few defeats Michigan St have suffered thus far.

In the twelve games since first year Jase Richardson was inserted into the starting lineup, he has been the KenPom Game MVP in three of them, all MSU wins. It’s a testament to the quality of depth of this Michigan St club that their top pro prospect only recently gained a starting spot. Coen Carr and Tre Holloman were absolutely sensational off the bench vs Bryant in round one.

(12) Colorado St (24%) vs (4) Maryland – 6:10 PM CST – TBS

Colorado State‘s Nique Clifford is #6 in the KenPom Player of the Year rankings, and leads the country with 20 KenPom Game MVPs this season – more than Auburn’s Johni Broome, Creighton’s Ryan Kalkbrenner & Duke’s Cooper Flagg. He may be the best player you’ve never heard of before today. Maryland’s offensive pattern seems to be take care of the ball, avoid getting your shots blocked, and shoot well enough to convert your number of shots advantage to victory. This does not sound terribly exciting, but it’s been effective and worked particularly well against Grand Canyon in round one; the Terps shot 50% from the free throw line but won handily. It seems the Rams will need an NBA-audition-level performance from Clifford to pull off the upset and go to their first Sweet Sixteen since 1969.

Maryland might cede the Best Player in the Game title today to Nique Clifford, but they wil endeavor to have the three next best from their starting five. Darik Queen has been a revelation as a freshman and should be a lottery pick in June. This Terps club are up to #11 in the KenPom, their best team since the 2000 edition under Mark Turgeon finished the cancelled season also #11.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and Basketball Reference
Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here
Plot format by Aaron Baggett
Inspiration from Rock M Nation and Bill Connelly

Team colors courtesy:
Benjamin S. Baumer and Gregory J. Matthews (2020). teamcolors: Color Palettes for Pro Sports Teams. R package version 0.0.4

With the first round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament complete, we check in on those teams looking to make their first trip to the Sweet Sixteen since the tourney first expanded to 64 teams in 1985. These are the Never Been Kissed.

FRIDAY Wins!

With 15:54 remaining in the second half, Memphis action hero Dain Dainja made 1 of 2 free throws to give the Tigers a 46-42 lead, and the Colorado St hopes of ever making the Sweet Sixteen were starting to fade. Then Nique Clifford setup reserve Kyle Jorgensen for a three, Kyan Evans hit a spicy triple of his own, and Clifford hit a two. Clifford got a steal and fed Bowen Born for the layup. The 10-2 run flipped the game and suddenly Memphis was chasing Colorado St. Evans hit two more threes down the stretch and the Rams made enough free throws to keep the Tigers at bay and prevail 78-70. Memphis minus Tyrese Hunter did not have the three-point shooting (just 26%) to keep pace. The Rams move on to face impressive (4) Maryland on Sunday.

Friday’s slate featured but one true upset, authored by NBK hopeful New Mexico. The Lobos battled Marquette to a virtual draw through 34 back-and-forth minutes before a Nelly Junior Joseph layup sparked a 10-0 run and established a cushion New Mexico would not reliquish. Point guard Donovan Dent steadied himself down the stretch after a rough start, and the Lobos were able to survive the hot shooting of the Golden Eagles’ David Joplin — 6-10 from three for 28 points — to win 75-66 and move on to the second round on Sunday. There they will face a determined (2) Michigan St.

Chalk days are bad days for the NBK, and the rest of our cohort had it very rough. Skip down past the rankings if you are morbidly curious about the rest of Friday’s results. Meanwhile….

SATURDAY Previews

(12) McNeese (28%) vs (4) Purdue – 11:10 AM CST – CBS

McNeese and lame duck coach / NIL pioneer Will Wade take on last year’s runner-up Purdue in the first game of the day. Perhaps most remarkable about the Cowboys opening round win 69-67 over Clemson was just how unremarkable most of the individual performances were. Brandon Murray came off the bench and stuffed the stats — 21 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals — and Christian Shumate was good as usual with a double-double, but most of McNeese‘s top players underperformed. Purdue is a very bad matchup for McNeese, as their primary weakness is interior defense, an area of which the Cowboys are poorly-equipped to take advantage. McNeese surprised Clemson in the first round by playing zone for the first time all year, and Clemson took about thirty-five minutes of game time to get their bearings. Wade will need a new surprise to spring today, else the Pokes will be sent packing and he will be wearing NC State Wolfpack gear by sunset. You know what mom always said: where there’s a Will, there’s a Wade. And a sneaker deal.

Before we move on to the next matchup, let’s have a moment of appreciation for the career of Zach Edey, now a rookie with the Memphis Grizzlies. Edey’s insane Avg Game Score per 40 of 25+ is only eclipsed by his incredible consistency — look how narrow of a range he performed in below. What a stalwart. Also of note – in Braden Smith (#9) and Trey Kaufmann-Renn (#10) the Boilers have two of the top candidates for the KenPom Player of the Year award. A rarity to have two players likely to be the best guy on the floor for any given game.

(11) Drake (23%) vs (3) Texas Tech – 5:10 PM CST – TNT

When Darian DeVries left Drake for West Virginia and took son Tucker with him, the Bulldogs turned to Division II legend Ben McCollum to run the show. In came D2 transfers Bennett Stirtz & Tavion Banks as well as Wyoming transfer Cam Manyawu and an entirely new supporting cast, and 31 wins later Drake is on the verge of their first Sweet Sixteen since 1971. Texas Tech stands in their way. For a recipe for how to beat the Red Raiders, Drake should review the tape of TCU’s 69-66 upset from 2/18: the Horned Frogs won the turnover battle, crashed the offensive boards, and shot 22 free throws to Tech’s mere 8. All these categories suggest the key will be for Drake to be agressive, be be aggressive. B-E-A-G-G RRRR-E-SS-I-V-E aggressive. Be, be aggressive.

In a long line of recent Red Raiders going to the NBA – Zhaire Smith, Jarrett Culver & Jahmi’us Ramsey among others – it stands notable that JT Toppin has so clearly out-performed all before him. Toppin is currently #5 in the KenPom Player of the Year rankings, and if he or Darrion Williams are the best player on Saturday it will be too much for Drake to overcome. (We’ll see Toppin again in this format tomorrow, as he transferred to Texas Tech after a year at New Mexico.) The Red Raiders have played the last two without Chance McMillian, expected to be a game-time decision for this one.

FRIDAY’s Losses

Robert Morris controlled the glass and cut the Alabama lead to just one with seven minutes remaining, but Crimson Tide veterans Mark Sears and Grant Nelson were too much and closed out the thin Colonials. Bama won 80-81. Liberty fell behind and shot 22% from three, losing 81-52 to Oregon. Troy Bolton had its head in the game and kept it interesting for a half, but Kentucky shot 39% from three and the Trojans were only even with the Wildcats on the boards. Kentucky beat Troy 76-57. Lipscomb looked game for the first ten minutes, but could not get to the line enough to offset their 17 turnovers and fell to Iowa St 82-55.

A good shot-blocking Akron team registered only four blocks and in turn had nine of their own tries stuffed by Arizona, who also shot a healthy 61% from two-point range and won easily 93-65. Grand Canyon was down 20 points early against Maryland, and it did not matter that neither team could make a free throw. The Terps rolled 81-49. Bryant hung in for fifteen minutes versus Michigan St and held the Spartans to 48% from two overall, but Sparty dominated the offensive boards and were too deep for the Bulldogs. They pulled away to win comfortably 87-62. Norfolk St & Mount St Mary’s both lost the opening tip, and never recovered versus overwhelming favorites Florida & Duke, respectively. Cooper Flagg, Tyrese Proctor & Khaman Maluach were too good, and the Blue Devils were way too connected to have any trouble at all.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and Basketball Reference
Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here
Plot format by Aaron Baggett
Inspiration from Rock M Nation and Bill Connelly

Team colors courtesy:
Benjamin S. Baumer and Gregory J. Matthews (2020). teamcolors: Color Palettes for Pro Sports Teams. R package version 0.0.4

THURSDAY Review

With a minute remaining and their double-digit lead whittled to two possessions, new NBK leader Drake put the ball in the hands of their ironman point guard Bennett Stirtz. Stirtz broke the Missouri press and attacked Mark Mitchell, flinging a lob to Tavion Banks for the decisive dunk and the upset was sealed. Drake won the steals battle 13 to 8 but more importantly forced the Tigers into a very poor shooting night from the field: 38% from two, 25% from three. Mizzou stayed somewhat in it by living at the foul line — 23 for 26 — but it was clear from the start that Stirtz was the best player on the floor. The Bulldogs move on to face (3) Texas Tech on Saturday.

In our Thursday preview post yesterday, we did not see any clear path for how McNeese could upset Clemson. The Cowboys saw a very clear path, which was “let’s play zone for the first time all year and make Clemson forget how to play offense for about an hour”. McNeese was up 31-13 at half, and maintained a double-digit lead until less than four minutes left. A too-late Clemson flurry made the final score 69-67 look way more respectable than it was. The Cowboys will take on (4) Purdue on Saturday.

UC San Diego did win the turnover battle — forcing 14 by Michigan while committing only 8 themselves — and even took a brief lead with under three minutes left in the second half. Then Tre Donaldson answered with a massive three-pointer and the Wolverines never trailed again, surviving 68-65. Triton top scorer Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones had a rough night, fouling out with just 7 points.

If Utah St vs UCLA truly was a bracket bellwether, defense will rule the first round. The Bruins held the Aggies to 13% three-point shooting on the night and cruised 72-47.

Yale shot it reasonably well from deep (38%), but Texas A&M controlled the boards and got an incredible boost off the bench from Pharrel Payne. The 6’9″ junior went for a career high 25 points on 10-12 from two-point range and 5-6 from the free throw line. He added 10 rebounds for the unexpected double-double.

High Point trailed most of the game against Purdue, but cut the lead to three with eight minutes left before Purdue pulled away to win 75-63. The Panthers shot it well — 52% from two, 36% from three — but were manhandled on the boards. Purdue rebounded a terrific 79% of High Point‘s misses and a ridiculous 53% of their own.

Wofford‘s only hope seemed to be to decisively win the Offensive Rebounding battle. They were OK on the offensive glass, retrieving 33% of their own misses, but Tennessee controlled the action more broadly and cruised 77-62.

Montana and Wisconsin were both only so-so (30%) from three point range, but the Badgers dominated inside the arc shooting 73% from two and pulled away for an 85-66 final margin.

Omaha were completely stifled by St John’s top-ranked defense, shooting 38% from two and 14% from three and going down 83-53.

SIUE & Alabama St put up little resistance to number one seeds Houston & Auburn, respectively, ending their playoff runs.

FRIDAY Preview

Colorado St vs Memphis is a virtual draw on paper – both teams are pretty balanced between offense and defense, both shoot reasonably well but not lights-out, and their rebounding and ball-control statistics line up well with one-another. Even Steven. Coin flip. But once you remove Memphis top shooter and nine-game NCAA Tournament veteran Tyrese Hunter from the Tigers lineup, the scales appear to tip decidedly in favor of the Rams. Only a three-point barrage from Tiger guards PJ Haggerty & Colby Rogers are likely to bring the Rams to heel.

New Mexico similarly has an opportunity on Friday to face a team on the decline. Marquette ran through their non-conference with wins over Purdue, Maryland, Georgia & Wisconsin and finished the first half of Big East action 9-1. In January they were looking like 1- or 2-seed material. March looks very different. The Golden Eagles went 4-6 in the second half of conference and bowed out of the Big East tournament quietly. Player of the Year candidate Kam Jones has remained strong but the rest of the club has regressed over the past two months.

Liberty is all about the three-pointer, as they shoot it well and often, and also hold opponents to just 28% from deep (#2 in the country per KenPom). But Oregon does not rely heavily on the three and hold a huge size advantage over the Flames.

Troy matches up poorly with Kentucky. The best thing the Trojans do is grab Offensive Rebounds (#6), which aligns with one of many Wildcat strengths (#23 in preventing ORs). Troy allows a high shooting percentage of threes and Kentucky shoots it well from distance, so a huge off-night may be their only hope.

Lipscomb‘s best hope is to live at the Free Throw line, as they shoot freebies at nearly 80% and Iowa St tends to foul guards. Grabbing an early lead and making a parade to the charity stripe looks like their best path to Sunday.

Akron‘s undersized centers 6’7″ Amani Lyles & 6’8″ James Okonkwo are both gifted shot blockers, and Arizona does not feature a great three-point shooting team. If the Zips can protect the paint and contain the Wildcats from mid-range, they stand a chance to survive and advance.

Similar to Lipscomb, Grand Canyon is likely going to have to feast at the Free Throw line to get past Maryland. The Lopes are good at getting there (#7 in FTA/FGA) but oddly only so-so at converting (#128 in FT%).

(Erick) Bryant, like Akron, have a raft of talented shot-blockers. Michigan St is strong at shot-blocking themselves, but the Big Ten overall is relatively light in this category. Maybe the Bulldogs’ interior defense gives the Spartans fits.

Robert Morris has an edge in Offensive Rebounds over Alabama, but it’s hard to envision a scenario where that’s enough for them to get over the Crimson Tide.

Norfolk St played one of the easiest schedules in the country and have to face maybe the hottest team in Florida.

Mount St Mary’s comes off their First Four win over American to face Duke with a likely-healthy Cooper Flagg.

FRIDAY – Round One
(12) Colorado St. (53%) vs (5) Memphis – 1 PM CST
(10) New Mexico (39%) vs (7) Marquette – 6:25 PM CST
(12) Liberty (34%) vs (5) Oregon – 9:10 PM CST
(14) Troy (16%) vs (3) Kentucky – 6:10 PM CST
(14) Lipscomb (14%) vs (3) Iowa St. – 12:30 PM CST
(13) Akron (13%) vs (4) Arizona – 6:35 PM CST
(13) Grand Canyon (12%) vs (4) Maryland – 2:35 PM CST
(15) Bryant (6%) vs (2) Michigan St. – 9 PM CST
(15) Robert Morris (6%) vs (2) Alabama – 11:40 AM CST
(16) Norfolk St. (2%) vs (1) Florida – 5:50 PM CST
(16) Mount St Mary’s (1%) vs (1) Duke – 1:50 PM CST

All ranking data courtesy Kenpom.com, with his Offensive & Defensive Efficiency numbers used to calculate our Win Probabilities. Anyone actually reading this should subscribe.

The field of 64 is set. Wednesday night, American lost to Mount St Mary’s after leading Eagle Matt Rogers twisted his knee just four minutes in. He did not return and the Mountaineers’ Jedy Cordilia went 10-11 from the field with 7 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 steals as MSM won 83-72. In non-NBK action, Xavier came back to beat Texas 86-80 .

Thursday’s action has UC San Diego as our group’s best bet to make it to Saturday. The Tritons thrive on winning the turnover battle — #4 in (highest) Steal % defense, #4 in (lowest) Steal % offense per KenPom $ — so the Michigan guards Tre Donaldson & Roddy Gayle will be put to the test. If the Wolverines can get into their half-court sets, their unique two-man-seven-footer game with 7’0″ Danny Wolf — of Yale fame last year — and 7’1″ Vladislav Golden might confound UCSD and send them through instead.

Utah St vs UCLA will be a good bellwether as to whether offense or defense are more important in round one. USU are #17 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency; UCLA are #17 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom.

Drake vs Missouri features two of the top stealing defenses, with the Bulldogs #1 and the Tigers #9.

We don’t see a clear path for how McNeese can upset Clemson — the Cowboys are an experienced club (#28 in Experience) and made the tourney last year, but Clemson is even more experienced (#8) and made it to the Elite Eight last year.

Yale shoot it well from deep — #9 in Three Point % — and Texas A&M shoot it terribly (#317). This seems like a too-obvious recipe for a first round upset. The Aggies have been terrific this year in the historically-tough SEC but faded a bit down the stretch.

High Point and Purdue both feather strong offenses, and though the Boilermakers defense is much stronger overall than the Panthers’, they do have one big hole. Purdue is #350 in defensive 2-point FG%, so High Point’s ability to score inside may prove decisive in the upset.

Wofford‘s best skill is Offensive Rebounding, but Tennessee similarly excels in preventing Offensive Rebounds.

Montana shoots it very well, but play absolutely no defense. And unlike most year’s, this Wisconsin squad is pretty adept offensively themselves.

Omaha has a capable offense but run into St John’s and their top-ranked defense.

SIUE has already won, making their first-ever tournament. Alabama St has literally won, winning a thrilling First Four game. We don’t see any path for them to win today….but that’s why they play the games! Best of luck to all the NBKers, and may your brackets remain unbroken!

THURSDAY – Round One
(12) UC San Diego (39%) vs (5) Michigan – 9 PM CST
(10) Utah St. (31%) vs (7) UCLA – 8:25 PM CST
(11) Drake (29%) vs (6) Missouri – 6:35 PM CST
(12) McNeese (26%) vs (5) Clemson – 2:15 PM CST
(13) High Point (19%) vs (4) Purdue – 11:40 AM CST
(13) Yale (19%) vs (4) Texas A&M – 6:25 PM CST
(14) UNC Wilmington (9%) vs (3) Texas Tech – 9:10 PM CST
(14) Montana (7%) vs (3) Wisconsin – 12:30 PM CST
(15) Wofford (5%) vs (2) Tennessee – 5:50 PM CST
(15) Nebraska Omaha (5%) vs (2) St. John’s – 8:45 PM CST
(16) SIUE (2%) vs (1) Houston – 1 PM CST
(16) Alabama St (1%) vs (1) Auburn – 1:50 PM CST

FRIDAY – Round One
(15) Robert Morris vs (2) Alabama – 11:40 AM CST
(14) Lipscomb vs (3) Iowa St. – 12:30 PM CST
(12) Colorado St. vs (5) Memphis – 1 PM CST
(13) Grand Canyon vs (4) Maryland – 2:35 PM CST
(16) Norfolk St. vs (1) Florida – 5:50 PM CST
(14) Troy vs (3) Kentucky – 6:10 PM CST
(10) New Mexico vs (7) Marquette – 6:25 PM CST
(13) Akron vs (4) Arizona – 6:35 PM CST
(15) Bryant vs (2) Michigan St. – 9 PM CST
(12) Liberty vs (5) Oregon – 9:10 PM CST
(16) AMER/MSM vs (1) Duke – TBD

All ranking data courtesy Kenpom.com, with his Offensive & Defensive Efficiency numbers used to calculate our Win Probabilities. Anyone actually reading this should subscribe.

Well none of our three desperate hopefuls made it in this time. Boise St, UC Irvine & North Texas all were on the outside looking in when the brackets were revealed on Sunday. We fed the brackets into the WAB supercomputer and asked it to produce a list of the team’s most likely to earn their first Sweet Sixteen berth since the tournament first expanded to 64 teams back in 1985. Behold, the Never Been Kissed (NBK) rankings as the tournament opens.

Colorado St is looking like the best bet. Though just a 12-seed, the Mountain West champs are slightly favored in their first game vs 5-seed Memphis, with 4-seed Maryland looking like a tough round two opponent. Not far behind the Rams are UC San Diego. This year’s most-hyped Cinderella, the Tritons have an experienced club in their first year of D1 tournament eligibility.

New Mexico also has a double-digit percentage chance of reaching round two, by our calculations. They will look to push the pace against struggling Marquette and potentially Michigan St.

McNeese & Yale have somewhat favorable second round matchups if they can get by their first hurdle. Yale pulled a big upset last year over Auburn and will look to repeat the feat against Texas A&M.

Sweet Sixteen trivia question:
Q: School with the most modern Sweet Sixteen appearances that did not make this year’s tournament?
A: Syracuse has 16 since 1985 but limped to a 14-19 finish this year

Shoutout to NBK schools making their first appeareance in the NCAAs: UC San Diego, High Point, Nebraska Omaha & SIUE. And back after a very long absence is Saint Francis (PA), making it for the first time since 1991.

TUESDAY – First Four
(16) Alabama St. (59%) vs (16) Saint Francis – 5:40 PM CST

WEDNESDAY – First Four
(16) American (52%) vs (16) Mount St. Mary’s – 5:40 PM CST

THURSDAY – Round One
(13) High Point vs (4) Purdue – 11:40 AM CST
(14) Montana vs (3) Wisconsin – 12:30 PM CST
(16) SIUE vs (1) Houston – 1 PM CST
(12) McNeese vs (5) Clemson – 2:15 PM CST
(15) Wofford vs (2) Tennessee – 5:50 PM CST
(13) Yale vs (4) Texas A&M – 6:25 PM CST
(11) Drake vs (6) Missouri – 6:35 PM CST
(10) Utah St. vs (7) UCLA – 8:25 PM CST
(15) Nebraska Omaha vs (2) St. John’s – 8:45 PM CST
(12) UC San Diego vs (5) Michigan – 9 PM CST
(14) UNC Wilmington vs (3) Texas Tech – 9:10 PM CST
(16) STF vs (1) Auburn – TBD

FRIDAY – Round One
(15) Robert Morris vs (2) Alabama – 11:40 AM CST
(14) Lipscomb vs (3) Iowa St. – 12:30 PM CST
(12) Colorado St. vs (5) Memphis – 1 PM CST
(13) Grand Canyon vs (4) Maryland – 2:35 PM CST
(16) Norfolk St. vs (1) Florida – 5:50 PM CST
(14) Troy vs (3) Kentucky – 6:10 PM CST
(10) New Mexico vs (7) Marquette – 6:25 PM CST
(13) Akron vs (4) Arizona – 6:35 PM CST
(15) Bryant vs (2) Michigan St. – 9 PM CST
(12) Liberty vs (5) Oregon – 9:10 PM CST
(16) AMER/MSM vs (1) Duke – TBD

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and ESPN Bracketology and ESPN Bubble Watch ($)

The biggest upset as it relates to the Never Been Kissed (NBK) on Saturday was North Texas falling to UAB in the American Athletic Conference semifinal. This result and UNT plummeting in the NBK standings left us feeling a little verklempt…talk amongst yourselves……..we’ll give you a topic…the Mean Green on Saturday were neither Mean, nor Green…discuss. For now we are keeping North Texas in our rankings but it’s not looking good.

Saturday’s best result went to UC San Diego, continuing their epic run, booking the auto-bid and punching their first ticket to March Madness in the first year they are eligible. Masters of thievery, the Tritons actually lost the turnover battle to UC Irvine but shot well from three and made enough free throws to survive and advance. UCSD is an interesting collection of foreign nationals and transfers, and we expect them to have the best chance of advancing to the second round among those NBK-eligible. They top the NBK rankings. On the other hand, the UCI Anteaters look like their bubble has burst sitting Next Four Out.

Speaking of bursting bubbles, Boise St losing to Colorado St may have been fatal, as Joey Brackets has the Broncos in the ignominious position of First Team Out. As many as two more bids could be stolen on Sunday so even if Joey B is a couple of spaces off the Broncos will be watching today’s games and the Selection Show with a giant bin of antacids nearby. NBK favorite conference the Mountain West is looking like a four-bid league with Boise St likely the fifth in that formulation and on the outside looking in.

Bryant, Liberty, Akron, and Grand Canyon were all favored in their conference finals and prevailed as expected on Saturday. NBK shout out to Mount St Mary’s, who we briefly transferred to the SWAC yesterday (oops), and their big win over Iona to win the MAAC. It’s the seventh NCAA appearance for the Mountaineers, and they have never made round two.

SUNDAY

The NBK is largely in the hands of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Selection committee. But first there is one bit of NBK business to be settled on the court on Sunday. The Ivy League Final pits Yale (69%$) vs Cornell on Sunday morning. The Big Red had a run to the Sweet Sixteen in 2010 behind Steve Donohue and a senior-laden club, so we at NBK HQ are putting our full support behind the Yale Bulldogs. Last year’s Yale squad pulled off a huge upset of Auburn in round one, and this year’s edition looks even stronger despite losing Danny Wolf to Michigan. (Wolf and Michigan take on Wisconsin today for the Big Ten tournament championship).

We mentioned bid stealers. If George Mason beats VCU, or if UAB upset Memphis, the committee will be scrambling to make final adjustments and shoehorn them in. We will all be adjusting to a new host this year as Adam Zucker takes the reins with the recent passing of legend Greg Gumbel.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and ESPN Bracketology and ESPN Bubble Watch ($)

With our alma mater Saint Louis falling in the A-10 quarterfinal, bringing Josh Schertz’s inaugural campaign to a close (save an NIT or lesser tourney run) let’s turn our attention to teams very much alive this year. Teams who are looking to break through to the second weekend. Teams who have only watched the Sweet Sixteen but have Never Been Kissed since the tournament first expanded to 64 teams back in 1985.

No new teams graduated in 2024, ending a streak of three straight years of promotions. Once again this year’s crop is heavy on the Mountain West with four clubs in our top five (below). The current NBK Rankings are led by a bold newcomer: UC San Diego out of the Big West. Eric Olen’s Tritons, in just their fifth year in Division I, carry the nation’s longest winning streak of fourteen games into tonight’s BW final vs UC Irvine. Neither appear to have the resume to earn an at-large bid so this one is a death match.

FRIDAY

No new tickets punched on Friday as it was day decidedly devoid of Finals. New Mexico & Utah St bowed out in the Mountain West semifinals. Both are safely in the field of 68 according to Joey Brackets — the Lobos as a 9-seed and the Aggies as a 10-seed. This arrangement looks like it will have worked out great for the MWC as the final between Boise St vs Colorado St is a coin toss and right now Lunardi has both in the field regardless. Advice to the MWC runner-up: keep your eyes on what happens in the American conference and root hard for Penny Hardaway’s top-seeded Memphis team to also lock down the auto-bid, and likewise pull for VCU to prevail in the Atlantic 10.

SATURDAY

Big West Final: UC San Diego (63%$) vs UC Irvine – 8:40 PM CST
MWC Final: Boise St (50%) vs Colorado St – 5 PM CST
WAC Final: Grand Canyon (56%) vs Utah Valley – 10:40 PM CST
MAC Final: Akron (66%) vs Miami OH – 6:40 PM CST
CUSA Final: Liberty (70%) vs Jacksonville St – 7:30 PM CST
MEAC Final: Norfolk St (52%) vs South Carolina St – 12 Noon CST
SWAC Final: Jackson St (58%) vs Alabama St – 8:30 PM CST
America East Final: Bryant (71%) vs Maine – 10 AM CST
MAAC Final: Mount St Mary’s (50%) vs Iona – 6:30 PM CST
Ivy Semifinal: Yale (78%) vs Princeton – 10 AM CST
Ivy Semifinal: Cornell (65%) vs Dartmouth – 1 PM CST
American semifinal: North Texas (66%) vs UAB – 4 PM CST
American semifinal: Tulane (29%) vs Memphis – 2 PM CST

As we prepared this delicious post, Yale squeaked past Princeton 59-57 to move on to the Ivy final, and Bryant trounced Maine 77-59 to seal the America East bid and a likely 15-seed.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and ESPN Bracketology and ESPN Bubble Watch ($)