Championship Preview: UConn vs Purdue

After a riveting Women’s final on Sunday saw unbeaten South Carolina prevail over unstoppable Caitlin Clark and Iowa, we turn our focus to the Men’s final on Monday night. Actually we turn our focus to this total eclipse this afternoon first, THEN we turn our attention to the Men’s final.

UConn (60%) vs Purdue – 8:20 PM CDT on TBS

Zach Edey was named player of the year for the second time, joining historic company. And he has been driven in this NCAA tournament – posting outlandish numbers even for him on the road the the Final Four. You can see below that DJ Burns and company did a decent job limiting his productivity, as well as that of most of the Boilermakers, in the national semifinal – a slow-paced, methodical Purdue win over surprise NC State 63-50 on Saturday.

Neither team is deep as both are in the 200s in terms of Bench Minutes, and we expect a slow pace with few subs. Foul trouble lurks as a foe for both, certainly in the epic big man matchup of Edey vs Donovan Clingan, but also at the guard spots. UConn has only three losses this year, and in two of those Ls reserve guard Solomon Ball logged more than 20 minutes. He has not seen that much court time in the entire calendar year 2024, and Dan Hurley surely does not want to rely on him Monday.

Current Boilers in Bold. Big dots are the Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Boilermakers’ Final Four win over NC State on Saturday night. Smaller dots are the same metric for Rounds 1-4.

UConn’s starters’ talent level this year is truly extraordinary. Shabazz Napier led UConn to the championship in 2014 as a one-man wrecking crew, following the lead of Kemba Walker before him in 2011. UConn’s ENTIRE STARTING FIVE perform at or above Napier/Walker levels for their Husky careers. Unless Purdue can get deeeep into UConn’s bench and make it a Solly Ball Game, this final looks like it will mirror the Women’s — dominant team beats standout player.

Current Huskies in Bold. Big dots are the Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Huskies’ Final Four win over Alabama on Saturday night. Smaller dots are the same metric for Rounds 1-4.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and Basketball Reference
Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here
Plot format by Aaron Baggett
Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy
Inspiration from Rock M Nation

Team colors courtesy:
Benjamin S. Baumer and Gregory J. Matthews (2020). teamcolors: Color Palettes for Pro Sports Teams. R package version 0.0.4