NBK 2024: Second Round Saturday

Eight contestants made it through to the Second Round, and stand on the brink of history – 40 minutes away from advancing to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since the field was expanded to 64 teams back in 1985.

NBK Rankings — based on best-to-worst Sweet Sixteen Odds — after the First Round. KenPom rankings through Friday 3/23/2024. Sweet Sixteen Odds for the eight schools still alive are simply the Win Probability in their Round of 32 game. Win Probabilities calculated using KenPom Adjusted Offensive & Defensive Efficiency ratings.

SATURDAY
#1 NC State (74%) vs #3 Oakland (26%) – 6:10 PM CDT on TBS
Both the Wolfpack and the Golden Grizzlies got otherworldly performances from bench guys in their first round games on Thursday. Oakland’s Jack Gohlke poured in 32 points against (3) Kentucky on 10 for 20 three-point shooting, taking no shots inside the arc. Gohlke started the first thirteen games of the season, coming off the bench since. But he still logs big minutes — 36,34,36,31 the past four games — so color us intrigued by coach Greg Kampe and his rotations. Speaking of Kampe, the Oakland grad has coached at his alma mater for forty straight years, taking them to new heights in 2024. Oakland does not take or make a ton of threes overall, so we will see if the barrage against Kentucky was an aberration.

NC State‘s super sub on Thursday was Ben MIddlebrooks, coming alive for a career-high 21 points on 6-8 from two and 10-12 from the free throw line. Former Mizzou Tiger Mo Diarra shot it well and added 12 rebounds to help knock off (6) Texas Tech. D.J. Burns and DJ Horne form a terrific inside-outside combination, and we will see if Oakland has anyone that can stay in front of either. It’s bully-ball versus small ball to get to the second weekend and a week basking in the cinderella spotlight (apologies to Gohlke, but these are both Cinderellas if they make the Sweet Sixteen).

Black dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Wolfpack’s opening round upset of Texas Tech 3/21/2024. Current Pack in Bold.
Black dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Grizzlies’ opening round upset of Kentucky 3/21/2024. Current Grizz in Bold.

#6 Duquesne (21%) vs Illinois – 7:40 PM CDT on TNT
Illinois was one of the most impressive top tier teams in Round One, taking a lead early in the second half and pulling away from Morehead St. to win 85-69 on Thursday. Terrence Shannon again led the way for the Illini and his 26 points offset Morehead’s Riley Minix’s 27. Marcus Damask shrugged off a poor shooting night to post a triple double with 12 points, 11 rebounds & 10 assists. Duquesne got off to a good start and took a 14-point lead early in the second half, then survived a back-and-forth finish to beat (6) BYU 71-67. Fifth-year senior Dae Dae Grant led a very balanced Dukes attack with 19 points and 3 steals, and fellow fifth-year Fousseyni Drame kicked in 8 points and 8 rebounds. Duquesne makes their bones on their defense (#29 in KenPom in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency) so we will see if they can slow down Shannon, Damask, Dainja and the rest of the Fighting Illini.

Red dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Dukes’ opening round upset of BYU on 3/21/2024. Current Dukes in Bold.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and Basketball Reference and RealGM.com
Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here
Plot format by Aaron Baggett
Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy
Inspiration from Rock M Nation
Team colors courtesy:
Benjamin S. Baumer and Gregory J. Matthews (2020). teamcolors: Color Palettes for Pro Sports Teams. R package version 0.0.4.