(5) San Diego St vs (4) UConn – 8:20 PM CDT on CBS
Keep your eye on the foul totals and the double-bonus situation tonight, for a couple of reasons. In the first half, both of these coaches are extremely conservative when it comes to playing guys with two fouls. So a first half second foul on anyone is a near certain auto-bench and may screw up the rotation. San Diego State wants to maximize the minutes of the Huskies’ Naheim Alleyne and Hassan Diarra. Then as we get into the second half, both teams also give up a high free throw % to the opponent, meaning they generally foul guard. This could provide a comeback path for either side.
These teams are deep enough — San Diego State goes a legitamate nine-deep and UConn is at about eight-and-a-half depending on how you feel about Diarra — and both have versatile scoring and defensive profiles, so foul trouble with a particular player may not prove decisive. But we saw in the women’s final yesterday that the sheer abundance of fouls on Iowa, then the fifth on Monika Czinano curbed their comeback run, and finally the technical (counting as personal foul number four) on Caitlin Clark seemed too much for the Hawkeyes to overcome.
Is this the game San Diego State unleashes the full Adam Seiko? The fifth-year senior is shooting 44.3% on three point attempts but has had only three games with 9+ attempts. How did he shoot in those games, you ask? 6 for 9 vs Occidental in December, 7 for 9 vs Utah St in January, and 6 for 10 vs UNLV in January. He’s only attempted four this entire tournament.
Current Aztecs in Bold. Big red dots are the Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Aztecs’ buzzer-beating Final Four win over Florida Atlantic on Saturday night. Black dots are the same metric for Rounds 1-4. Current Huskies in Bold. Big blue dots are the Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Huskies’ dominant Final Four win over Miami on Saturday night. Gray dots are the same metric for Rounds 1-4.
The maddest March ever gives way to April Fool’s Day; let’s take a WAB-style look at the Final Four matchups for this historic Saturday. Your brackets are broken so we hope you can sit back and enjoy the action amidst the ripped-up scraps.
(9) Florida Atlantic vs (5) San Diego St. – 5:09 PM CDT on CBS
Looking first at Florida Atlantic, Brandon Weatherspon has been particularly effective in the Owls red-hot run to their first Final Four. The 6’4″ junior gives Florida Atlantic a little size off the bench. You read that right: they’re sosmall that a 6’4″ dude is brought in to give them size. Weatherspoon shoot his rare shots at 55% on twos, 35% from three, and 76% from the line, and does not turn the ball over (33rd lowest TO Rate, per KenPom ($) ). Johnell Davis was everywhere all at once in FAU’s win over FDU in the second round — 29 points, 12 ebounds, 5 assists, 5 steals. Meanwhile, Jalen Gaffney breaks all our nice things, and Tre Carroll — son of former NFL defensive end Anthony Hargrove — remains a top secret weapon, seeing no action in the tournament to date despite good production in his grad transfer year.
Current Owls in Bold. Red dots are the Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Owls’ four tournament wins this year.
San Diego State leans heavily on buff southpaw Matt Bradley and the brilliance of Nathan Mensah, with Jaedon Ledee spelling Mensah off the bench. Those three are no Kawhi Leonard, but they did what The Claw never could and led SDSU to the Final Four. These three have had a pretty quiet tournament for them with just 7 of 15 performances even above average, and a few mostly-foul-trouble induced stinkers from Darrion Trammell, Aguek Arop, and Micah Parrish to cobble together four straight wins. Adam Seiko is the man to watch from beyond the arc, shooting a sizzling 44% on the season, and has let it fly a whopping four times (!) from distance in the tournament. Bizarre.
Current Aztecs in Bold. Black dots are the Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Jayhawks’ four tournament wins this year.
(5) Miami vs (4) UConn – 7:49 PM CDT on CBS
Basketball, as we know, is a game of five on five. Our five versus your five, typically. But Miami plays a bizarre brand of four on four. More specifically, their game within the game is the positive work by their four players up in the Pro Zone — Norchad Omier, Jordan Miller,Isaiah Wong, and Nijel Pack — fighting like hell to offset the bricklaying and general tomfudgery of the four party-poopers near the bottom — Anthony Walker, Bensley Joseph, Harlond Beverly, and AJ Casey. In the middle sits Wooga Poplar, who solidifies the Canes status as best-named team in the Final Four and bridges the gap between the solid (waste) and spectacular.
Current Canes in Bold. Green dots are the Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Hurricanes’ four tournament wins this year.
UConn is the one coming into this eclectic Final Four with any sort of institutional pedigree. This year’s club features two guys in the rarified air of past champions Kemba Walker and Shabazz Napier. Adama Sanogo comes into the Final Four at number 9 in the KenPom Player of the Year rankings ($) and was particularly terrifying against Iona in the first round, going for 28 points and 13 rebounds in just 25 minutes. And when Sanogo is not on the court, Donovan Clingan carries the load inside. Clingan is not the scorer that Sanogo is — he’s no threat from three and a poor free-throw shooter — but at 7’2″ is a Sanogoeqsue rebounder and a phenomenal shot-blocker. His closest statistical comparison is to Mark Williams of last year’s Final Four team Duke and now on the Charlotte Hornets, and we all remember what Williams did for the Blue Devils last March. Tristen Newton has been solid this tournament, and Jordan Hawkins has elevated his game, while Naheim Allenye has had maybe his best four-game stretch as a Husky spelling Hawkins and Jackson. He does this H-A-W-K-I-N-S and J-A-C-K-S-O-N, we presume. #analysis
Current Huskies in Bold. Gray dots are the Game Score Per 40 Minutes in Duke’s four tournament wins this year.
