NBK 2023: Saturday – Round Two

We began the tournament with 25 Never Been Kissed (NBK) hopefuls. Six survived and advanced to the Round of 32. Before we look ahead to the weekend action, a hat tip to Fairleigh Dickenson joining an elite club on Friday night.

NBK Rankings — based on best-to-worst Sweet Sixteen Odds — after the First Round. KenPom rankings through Friday 3/17/2023. Sweet Sixteen Odds for the six schools still alive are simply the Win Probability in their Round of 32 game. Win Probabilities calculated using KenPom Adjusted Offensive & Defensive Efficiency ratings.

SATURDAY
#3 Princeton (33%) vs Missouri – 5:10 PM CST on TNT
It’s interesting how Princeton uses Keeshawn Kellman like an “opener” in baseball. The 6’9″ senior has started all 28 games this year but plays less than half the minutes. Seems like a bit of a Big Guy smoke screen behind which they go sneaky small. Kellman and Blake Peters were both very efficient in limited roles against Arizona.

Black dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Tigers’ opening round upset of Arizona 3/16/2023. Current Tigers in Bold.

Princeton’s opponent on Saturday are the Mizzou Tigers, coming off a tough win over favored Utah St. Mizzou features three players in the “pro zone”, with D’Moi Hodge the most productive Mizzou Tiger since the great DeMarre Carroll (career earnings $80M). Another grad transfer Noah Carter has been Mizzou’s best undersized postman. And Kobe Brown’s ascendancy this year has been nothing short of astounding.


#4 Furman (23%) vs San Diego St. – 11:10 AM CST on CBS
Perhaps most remarkable about the Paladins upset of mighty Virginia on Thursday was how unremarkable their performance was overall. Jalen Slawson led the way (19 points, 10 rebounds, 4 assists) and JP Pegues shrugged off a tough game (3 for 9 shooting, 4 turnovers) to hit the huge three. For the most part the Dins just did what Dins do. Pegues’ shining moment was made possible by a colossal mistake from the Cavs Kihei Clark, who threw the ball up for grabs inexplicably when it looked like Virginia had the game in the bag.

Black dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Paladins’ opening round upset of Virginia 3/16/2023. Current ‘dins in Bold.


#5 Northwestern (20%) vs UCLA – 7:40 PM CST on TNT
The Wildcats rode standout performances from Boo Buie (22 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists) and Chase Audige (20 points, 6 rebounds, 4 steals) to outlast fellow NBK-er Boise St. on Thursday. The Broncos are quite thin, relying on 5.5 players, and the Wildcats wore them down in the end. Northwestern will have their hands full on Saturday with a UCLA team rolling in spite of recent injuries to Jaylen Clark (out for the year) and Adem Bona (day-to-day). Jaime Jaquez (#3 in the KenPom Player of the Year rankings) leads the Bruins.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and Basketball Reference and RealGM.com
Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here
Plot format by Aaron Baggett
Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy
Inspiration from Rock M Nation
Team colors courtesy:
Benjamin S. Baumer and Gregory J. Matthews (2020). teamcolors: Color Palettes for Pro Sports Teams. R package version 0.0.4.