The field is set! Joey Brackets only missed one (congratulations Wyoming, our condolences Texas A&M)! And this year’s bracket contains 23 schools that have never made it to the Sweet Sixteen in the years since the field was first expanded to 64 teams back in 1985. These teams are the Never Been Kissed (NBK), and in this post we’ll rank them from most- to least-likely to make it to first base err I mean the second weekend.

San Francisco tops our rankings currently, as the Dons hold a 17.9% chance of making it through two rounds unscathed. They’ll have to beat fellow NBKer Murray St in the first round and likely Kentucky in the second.

Speaking of Murray St the Racers are in a group along with Colorado St, Vermont, TCU and even South Dakota St with wildly varying seeds (6,7,9,13!) but given their respective paths very similar odds of getting through. Looking for a value play among that pack? Go with Vermont surprising both Arkansas and Connecticut on their way to the Sweet Sixteen. The Catamounts have been to the tourney three times in the last six years and this season’s edition — their best since the 2005 club that upset Syracuse — have won 22 of 23. Should they make that second round date against Connecticut, we’d see a battle under the boards with the #1 Offensive Rebounding Huskies against #1 Defensive Rebounding Vermont. Oh and the Catamounts shoot the lights out and don’t turn the ball over. We at NBK HQ are bullish on the ‘Mounts.

Boise St got the worst deal from the committee, without question. The Broncos won the Mountain West regular season outright and beat two other tourney-bound teams on their way to the MWC conference tournament championship. They sport an impressive #26 KenPom ranking and are 24-3 since Dec 1. All this and they are saddled with an 8-seed, pitted against a similarly underseeded Memphis (#28 KenPom) team in round one, then if they survive that test go up against the overall number one seed Gonzaga in round two. An 8.2% chance of getting through all that sounds optimistic.

Sorting through the rest of the longshots, Colgate rightly emerges as a best bet. Though only a 14-seed, the Raiders get a pretty soft path: Wisconsin was rewarded for winning the Big Ten regular season but profiles more like a #9 than a #3, and #6 LSU just fired their carpetbagging coach Will F. Wade two days hence.

Rutgers is another intriguing pick, if only because of the success in years past of First Four teams winning multiple games — five teams in the last 10 years have made the Sweet Sixteen from that position. The Scarlet Knights could make it six, though we do not like Texas Tech looming.

Looking even farther down the rankings for signs of life, Texas Southern coach Johnny Jones — late of LSU — has the deepest team in the country (#1 in Bench Minutes) and the most-experienced tournament team (#3 overall, with Vermont and Providence not too far behind). Do us all a favor, Johnny, and beat kansas.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com

Are you like me and forgot today was Daylight Savings Time aka spring forward? I missed an hour of the Barcelona women stomping Real Madrid this morning due to that antiquated relic.

Also congratulations to Nuggetpalooza for their correct selection of Kansas & Arizona in Rush the Court’s College Basketball Survivor pool. Best CBB pool on the internet. Pick two teams from the top six conferences to win all their games that week, then you can’t use them again the rest of the season. Be sure to sign up next November.

SATURDAY
Boise St won the Mountain West title 53-52 over San Diego St. The Broncos survived two close-range SDSU shots and subsequent offensive rebounds in the final possession to escape with the win and complete the MWC double as both regular-season and tournament champs. The Aztecs have been the hegemon of the MWC, making their fifth straight tournament final, and BSU getting over on them had to feel cathartic.

SMU lost to Memphis 70-63 in the Very Long Name AAC semifinal. This result is a bit of an ink blot for the committee — (a) Memphis is a good team, and (b) seven points is not exactly pushing them to the limit. Both true statements, so whichever one you lean on more heavily says what you think about SMU’s chances of grabbing one of the last at-large spots today. Joey Brackets has SMU as the First Team OUT this morning, meaning SMU needs both a Virginia Tech (holders of the coveted Last Team IN slot) blowout loss to Tennessee AND a Richmond (no chance of at-large) loss to Davidson in the Atlantic 10 final. Our money is against the Mustangs, and not just because of what the Semi Ojeleye squad did to my bracket a few years ago.

Saint Louis was smoked by sixteen by A-10 regular season champ Davidson 85-69 in the semifinal. The NIT awaits my Billikens, while the Wildcats move on to an intriguing A-10 final. Dayton was expected to advance for another DvD showdown, but the Flyers were grounded by the Richmond Spiders in the second semi-final. Richmond goes into Selection Sunday as one of two bid-stealers still alive — Lunardi was not sufficiently impressed enough with Texas A&Ms win over Kentucky to make them safe today. He has the Aggies as the Last Team In – so does a blowout loss knock them out?

Vermont won big 82-43 over UMBC in the Vermont Invitational America East final. Good god Catamounts. More ink blots to interprest as you make your bracket: How you feel about Vermont is probably how you feel about Gonzaga — (a) their utter domination of their league means they are very very good and confident and relatively unstoppable, or (b) their league dominance leaves them completely unprepared for the challenges to come.

Princeton edged Cornell 77-73 in an entertaining morning battle in the Ivy League semifinal. I came away impressed with the Tigers first pass at my eye test — a super-talented point-forward surrounded by four three-point shooters? Yes, please. Sounds like a modern mathematical machine. I will be officially bummed if they lose to Yale on Sunday as I don’t believe I can root for Yale.

Montana St scored the first bucket of the game and never trailed vs Northern Colorado, cruising to an 87-66 victory and the Big Sky title.

Random thoughts:
Villanova are the Death Eaters of college basketball. They walk the ball up, swing it back and forth, and wear you out. Look for major depth as a requirement to beat them.

Boise St and Texas Tech are both so long. Why don’t we have a wingspan measure on all these guys? Would make it more interesting for a data dork like myself.

It crackes me up that the Big Ten final is going to be a fun, wide-open affair featuring two high-octane offenses Purdue vs Iowa, while the SEC is going to be a slow, fifteen-round brawl between Texas A&M and Tennessee.

Keegan Murray has an incredibly nice shot. I wonder why Jabari Smith from Auburn seems to have all the heat as shooter of choice.

Coach K is acting very strangely as the Duke ship starts to sink in the ACC final against Virginia Tech.

Very entertaining Pac-12 final between Arizona and UCLA. Both teams threw some big haymakers. UCLA played very very well but Arizona was too good.

SELECTION SUNDAY
Princeton (61%) vs Yale – 11 AM CDT

Only one NBKer game – here’s the full slate for Sunday:

Behold! Our final Never Been Kissed rankings on the morning of Selection Sunday. To this point in the season, we have relied strictly on KenPom ranking overall and in conference to sort the eligible teams on our table. Now that the field is mostly settled — ulcers for SMU and Princeton fans — we begin to overweight on seeding in general and avoidance of the #1 & #2 seeds in particular. We consider the #4 & #5 seeds particularly vulnerable, so it’s good to see no NBKers saddled with those at the moment. South Dakota St, Vermont, and Princeton will be hunting those marks. Colgate has shown better quality this year, but if saddled with a #15 seed they will be in the cross-hairs of a #2 seed right away. You can tell by our rankings, we do think Princeton will prevail over Yale today, and we do not think SMU is going to have all their Sunday prayers answered by all of Tennessee, Davidson AND the committee. Should the Mustangs prove us wrong and find their way into the field, they would likely be a #12 seed and subject to the First Four. Given these circumstances, 4 out of 5 NBK committee members recommend Colgate 🙂

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and ESPN Bracketology and ESPN Bubble Watch and NCAA.com

On Friday of Championship Week — if you’ve ever said the words “Champ Week” aloud, you should be ashamed of yourself — anyone within earshot of the bubble rooted full throat against Indiana, VCU, North Texas and NBK #9 SMU. Joe Lunardi summed up the state of affairs in the wee hours of Saturday morning thusly (my bolding of NBK teams):

Looks like we’ll need another day to unravel and properly sequence the bubble teams. We need to sleep on teams like Wyoming, Michigan, Xavier and hard-luck Oklahoma. Others such as SMU, Dayton and Texas A&M still control their own destinies on Saturday and perhaps even into Sunday. Likely off the board at this point are Wake Forest, VCU, North Texas and Colorado. Our final weekend storyline will be Kentucky, which now has an open path to a No. 1 seed by winning the SEC tournament.

Joe Lunardi, ESPN Bracketologist

Let’s recap the results that matter to the Never Been Kissed (NBK): FRIDAY
Boise St won 68-61 over Wyoming in the Mountain West semifinal, and bumped up to a 6-seed in Joey Brackets’ latest projections. While the Blue Turfers are playing for seed lines and a cool hat on Saturday, the Cowboys will have a fitful wait to see how the rest of the bubble shakes out. Wyoming fans: root hard against Virginia Tech, Dayton, Texas A&M, SMU, and SLU.

In the other MWC semi, Colorado St fell to San Diego St 63-58. The Rams were the better seed but the Aztecs were favored per KenPom. So it’s not an upset and the loss does not hurt CSU – they seem to have nestled comfortably in the 7-seed range.

TCU lost 75-62 to kansas in the Big XII semifinal in Kansas City, MO. Unlike in their recent game in Lawrence, where they made a second half surge to make things interesting for a bit, in this one the Horned Frogs were dominated throughout. It’s a testament to the strength of the Big XII this year that TCU loses three of their last four yet goes comfortably into the NCAAs with momentum and buzz.

North Texas were tripped up by lowly Louisiana Tech 42-36 in a game that even the Pat Riley Knicks found to be an affront to the game of basketball. Over 58 excrutiating possessions, the Mean Green and Bulldogs slung feces at one another before realizing time had mercifully expired and everyone was released to the rest of their day. North Texas coach Grant McCasland is showing up on some early lists of potential replacements for Cuonzo Martin — fired on Friday from Mizzou after five years — and as a long-time Mizzou fan let me be the first to say No Thanks. And as shown above, Lunardi is writing them off too. Devastating loss.

In happier local news, Saint Louis was finally able to get over on St Bonaventure, eeking out a 57-56 win on Friday thanks to SBU’s Kyle Lofton missing two free throws AND a putback in the final two seconds. SLU’s burgeoning 2022 at-large case was demolished in mid-February by consecutive losses to the Bonnies. SBU also knocked SLU out of the A-10 tournament last year, so this victory is particularly satisfying for the Billikens. The win also moves SLU back into Lunardi’s bubble picture — see below — with a date with Davidson next.. Davidson appears to be comfortably IN, and with them having knocked out VCU on Friday a SLU-Dayton final would likely be for only the auto-bid. Despite SLU losing by 21 at Davidson in February, we are only a slight underdog in this one. Let’s Go Bills!

SMU won emphatically 83-58 over Tulsa, and slides slightly over the crest to the better side of the bubble. Today’s semifinal against Memphis seems make-or-break for their at-large hopes. The Mustangs beat the Tigers handily on their home floor a few weeks back, but Memphis is undefeated since and looks to be a legitimate challenger to top AAC dog Houston. This would be a decisive win for SMU.

Rutgers lost to the Iowa light show 84-74. No shame there as Iowa is on fire, and Scarlet Knights coach Steve Pikell signed a lucrative extension. They look to be just above the First Four as an 11-seed.

Big upset in the MAC, as Toledo fell to Akron 70-62 in the semifinal. Look for Toledo back in the NBK this time next year.

UC Santa Barbara ended their one-week stint in the NBK standings by losing to Long Beach St 67-64. UC Irvine and the Gauchos are sure to battle for this space again next year in the Big West.

Finally Montana St kept their dream alive with a win over Weber St 69-66 in the Big Sky semifinal. They will take on Northern Colorado in the final.

SATURDAY
#3 Boise St (45%) vs San Diego St – 5 PM CST
#8 SMU (43%) vs Memphis – 4 PM CST
#9 Saint Louis (46%) vs Davidson – 12 Noon CST
#10 Vermont (91%) vs UMBC – 10 AM CST
#19 Princeton (71%) vs Cornell – 10 AM CST
#23 Montana St (64%) vs Northern Colorado – 7 PM CST

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and ESPN Bracketology and ESPN Bubble Watch and NCAA.com

Thursday recap as we track those teams that have not made the Sweet Sixteen in men’s college basketball since the field was expanded to 64 back in 1985. These schools have Never Been Kissed:

THURSDAY
Toledo trailed by 2 at half to Central Michigan, and by one in the closing seconds. A drive and finish by Rayj Dennis, followed by some great defense by JT Shumate allowed the Rockets to escape with a one point win 72-71 and advance in the MAC.

The suddenly-formidable TCU Horned Frogs stormed back from 18 down to upset Texas in the Big XII, further solidifying their position in the field of 68.

SLU Billikens took care of business with a 20-point blowout of the Explorers in their A-10 opener. Next up: program bogeyman St Bonaventure.

Nevada made it interesting late but Boise St advances 71-69 in their Mountain West opener.

UC Irvine fell to UC Santa Barbara, ending their season suddenly in the Big West quarterfinals. The NBK bids the Anteaters farewell until next year, and welcomes the Gauchos (Santa Barbarians?) to our rankings in their place.

North Texas ripped off a 23-4 run early in the first half to put this one out of reach of minute Rice.

In an NBK vs NBK clash, Colorado St busted Utah St‘s modest bubble, eeking out a 53-51 win in a super-slow Mountain West conference tourney game. CSU remains comfortably in the field and looks to move up a line or two.

Fresno St fell to San Diego St in another MWC tourney slog 53-46. America is not going to be clamoring for MWC at-large bids after these grinders. That said, Joey Brackets still has the Mountain West as a four-bid league — Boise St, San Diego St, Colorado St and Wyoming — which would be their most since they sent five in 2013. A strong showing in the NBK rankings indicates the MWC could continue to poach bids formerly reserved for the likes of the Pac-12, ACC, Atlantic 10 and Missouri Valley.

FRIDAY
#3 Boise St (56%) vs Wyoming – 8:30 PM CST
#4 Colorado St (45%) vs San Diego St – 11 PM CST
#5 TCU (22%) vs Kansas – 6 PM CST
#6 North Texas (66%) vs Louisiana Tech – 11:30 AM CST
#8 Saint Louis (59%) vs St Bonaventure – 1:30 PM CST
#9 SMU (78%) vs Tulsa – 6 PM CST
#14 Rutgers (23%) vs Iowa – 1 PM CST
#17 Toledo (69%) vs Akron – 4 PM CST
#22 UC Santa Barbara (56%) vs Long Beach St – 8 PM CST
#23 Montana St (58%) vs Weber St – 6:30 PM CST

#10 Vermont and #19 Princeton next take the court on Saturday.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and ESPN Bracketology and ESPN Bubble Watch and NCAA.com

Before we look to Thursday action in the NBK – those schools who have Never Been Kissed, never made it to the Sweet Sixteen in the years since the NCAA men’s basketball tournament was expanded to 64 teams in 1985 – let’s review what happened on Wednesday:

Colgate beat Navy 74-58 to win the Patriot and punch their ticket. With some other upsets in conference tourneys Joey Brackets bumped them up to a 14-seed in his latest projections.

Iona lost their semifinal to Rider in their MAAC opener. The Gaels started the year at #162 KenPom and sprinted out to a 19-3 record and #67, including a neutral-site win over #22 Alabama. Four losses since then to inauspicious Niagara, Siena, Manhattan, and now Rider mean the Gaels and Rick Pitino will be lucky to secure an NIT bid.

Utah St handled Air Force 83-56, setting up an NBK clash Thursday against Colorado St. The Aggies lost both games to CSU this year and will have an uphill battle to keep their tournament hopes alive. CSU can afford to lose this one; USU cannot.

Staying in the Mountain West with teams currently on the outside looking into the bubble, Fresno St needed overtime to do it but finally outlasted San Jose St 69-67. They’ll take on San Diego St on Thursday and the USU/CSU winner on Friday, should they advance.

Vermont continued their rumble through the America East tournament aka Vermont Invitational with a shellacking of Binghamton 74-42, and will look to steamroll UMBC on Saturday in the championship game on their home floor.

THURSDAY
#15 Toledo (94%) vs Central Michigan – 10 AM CST
#5 TCU (36%) vs Texas – 11:30 AM CST
#9 Saint Louis (85%) vs LaSalle – 1:30 PM CST
#3 Boise St (76%) vs Nevada – 2 PM CST
#21 UC Irvine (52%) vs UC Santa Barbara – 4:30 PM CST
#6 North Texas (84%) vs Rice – 5:30 PM CST
#7 Utah St (46%) vs #4 Colorado St (54%) – 8 PM CST
#11 Fresno St (37%) vs San Diego St – 10:30 PM CST

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and ESPN Bracketology and ESPN Bubble Watch and NCAA.com

Recounting Tuesday’s movements in the Never Been Kissed – those schools whose men’s basketball programs have never made the Sweet Sixteen in all the years since the field first expanded to 64 in 1985.

Wagner fell to Bryant, who rode the nation’s leading scorer and meathead Peter Kiss and home-court advantage consisting of rowdy douchers to the NEC crown and the auto-bid. This would be a feel-good story for Bryant, new to Division I and winning their first bid, but they seem about has hard to root for as Liberty. So we’ll pass on the feeling good about that, and instead tip an NBK cap to Wagner coach Bashir Mason for wearing the #4 jersey of injured senior guard Elijah Ford for the stretch run.

South Dakota St dispatched North Dakota St in the Summit final without too much difficulty, storming to an early 14-4 advantage. The Bison did eventually cut the lead to one late, but the Jackrabbits and their #1 in the nation Three-Point FG% ($) are going to the Big Dance. Our Man Brackets has the JRs as a 12-seed — prime territory to knock off a wobbly #5 & #4 and graduate from the NBK watchlist.

WEDNESDAY
Colgate vs Navy (Patriot final)
Iona vs Rider
Utah St vs Air Force
Fresno St vs San Jose St
Vermont vs Binghamton

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and ESPN Bracketology and ESPN Bubble Watch and NCAA.com

With a couple of tickets punched over the weekend — congrats to Murray St and new-entry Longwood — let’s see where the NBK stands going into Tuesday night of Championship Week. First let’s revisit Monday action:

In the Game of the Night, the Furman Paladins came back to force overtime against Chattanooga in the SoCon Championship game. Paladin guard Mike Bothwell blew past his defender for a layup to put them up two with under five seconds remaining. The Mocs eschewed the timeout, inbounding right away to David Jean-Baptiste. DJB weaved through traffic to drain a desperation heave from 23 feet just before the horn sounded. Furman’s season is over, and Chattanooga (NBK class of 1997) goes dancing.

San Francisco, way overmatched early and minus their best player Yauhen Massalski, staged a late comeback before falling to #1 Gonzaga in the WCC Semifinals in Las Vegas. In the second semifinal, Santa Clara also fell behind early but inched back close enough to have a tying shot rim off from Jalen Williams. I have to believe Williams’ NBA prospects took a hit with it, as he was held in check by the St. Mary’s defense. Mizzou fans noted Parker Braun started for Santa Clara but was played off the floor after logging only eight minutes. Santa Clara begins an agonizing and likely fruitless week of waiting while St. Mary’s (NBK Class of 2010) takes on Gonzaga tonight.

South Dakota St demolished South Dakota on Monday night and are heavily favored over North Dakota St in the championship game. ESPN Bubble Watch has them at least in the conversation for an at-large bid, but they may not need it this year.

Towson was 4-23 from three point range and fell to Delaware in the CAA semis.

TUESDAY

South Dakota St vs North Dakota St (Summit final)

Wagner vs Bryant (NEC final)

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and ESPN Bracketology and NCAA.com

As we head into the last weekend of the regular season for the big conferences, and the first automatic bids start rolling in for the littles, teams are starting to make some moves in the NBK – those schools who have never made the Sweet Sixteen — Never Been Kissed — in all the years since the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams back in 1985.

TCU is our prime mover, jumping 15 spots in the KenPom after a big win over kansas at home, followed by a close loss at the very same kansas. Toledo has two blowout wins already this week and a head of steam going into the MAC. Conversely, UC Irvine stumbled at Cal Poly and has now lost two of three.

Big Ten movers: goodbye Northwestern, hello Rutgers! The Wildcats stagger toward the finish line and an uncertain future for Chris Collins, while the Scarlet Knights pick up a big roadie at Indiana to halt a three-game losing streak.

Sun Belt movers: goodbye South Alabama, hello Texas St! The Bobcats beat the Jags on Tuesday night and Troy on Friday to clinch the top spot in the Sun Belt.

In other NBK news, Towson has a 50.1% chance of winning the Colonial, and Vermont has an 80.4%(!) shot in the America East. Look for Towson, South Dakota St., and Vermont to jockey for seventh or even sixth in the NBK by this time next week.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and ESPN Bracketology and NCAA.com

Conference tournament action kicks off tonight as #349 Central Connecticut takes on #346 Farleigh Dickinson in the opening round of the NEC tournament. The great thing about college basketball is either of these two teams could win ten straight and take home the national championship. But would that be a dream or an absolute nightmare? Maybe that’s not the great thing about college basketball after all. Setting our sights slightly lower, we take a look at the Never Been Kissed (NBK) standings as one conference tournament opens while most others finish out the regular season.