The field is set! Joey Brackets only missed one (congratulations Wyoming, our condolences Texas A&M)! And this year’s bracket contains 23 schools that have never made it to the Sweet Sixteen in the years since the field was first expanded to 64 teams back in 1985. These teams are the Never Been Kissed (NBK), and in this post we’ll rank them from most- to least-likely to make it to first base err I mean the second weekend.
San Francisco tops our rankings currently, as the Dons hold a 17.9% chance of making it through two rounds unscathed. They’ll have to beat fellow NBKer Murray St in the first round and likely Kentucky in the second.
Speaking of Murray St the Racers are in a group along with Colorado St, Vermont, TCU and even South Dakota St with wildly varying seeds (6,7,9,13!) but given their respective paths very similar odds of getting through. Looking for a value play among that pack? Go with Vermont surprising both Arkansas and Connecticut on their way to the Sweet Sixteen. The Catamounts have been to the tourney three times in the last six years and this season’s edition — their best since the 2005 club that upset Syracuse — have won 22 of 23. Should they make that second round date against Connecticut, we’d see a battle under the boards with the #1 Offensive Rebounding Huskies against #1 Defensive Rebounding Vermont. Oh and the Catamounts shoot the lights out and don’t turn the ball over. We at NBK HQ are bullish on the ‘Mounts.
Boise St got the worst deal from the committee, without question. The Broncos won the Mountain West regular season outright and beat two other tourney-bound teams on their way to the MWC conference tournament championship. They sport an impressive #26 KenPom ranking and are 24-3 since Dec 1. All this and they are saddled with an 8-seed, pitted against a similarly underseeded Memphis (#28 KenPom) team in round one, then if they survive that test go up against the overall number one seed Gonzaga in round two. An 8.2% chance of getting through all that sounds optimistic.
Sorting through the rest of the longshots, Colgate rightly emerges as a best bet. Though only a 14-seed, the Raiders get a pretty soft path: Wisconsin was rewarded for winning the Big Ten regular season but profiles more like a #9 than a #3, and #6 LSU just fired their carpetbagging coach Will F. Wade two days hence.
Rutgers is another intriguing pick, if only because of the success in years past of First Four teams winning multiple games — five teams in the last 10 years have made the Sweet Sixteen from that position. The Scarlet Knights could make it six, though we do not like Texas Tech looming.
Looking even farther down the rankings for signs of life, Texas Southern coach Johnny Jones — late of LSU — has the deepest team in the country (#1 in Bench Minutes) and the most-experienced tournament team (#3 overall, with Vermont and Providence not too far behind). Do us all a favor, Johnny, and beat kansas.
Data courtesy Kenpom.com