Surprising SLU takes on disappointing St. Bonaventure tonight at 8 PM Central at Chaifetz Arena, in the first game of a COVID-induced weekend home-and-home.
The last time these two teams met was in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament last March. SLU came in #39 KenPom, squarely off the bubble but with a punchers chance of scoring the automatic bid. SBU was #30 KenPom and seemed safely IN the field.
Three minutes in, it was 11-2 Bonnies. After taking an 8-point lead into the half, SBU went on a 12-2 run early in the second and the rout was on. SLU never threatened and were trounced 71-53. SLU accepted an NIT bid and took a first-round loss. SBU then beat VCU for the A-10 auto-bid and snagged a 9-seed, then lost big to LSU in round one of the Big Dance.
The blue dots on the chart below show just how feeble SLU was vs SBU last time — Gibson Jimerson came off the bench to hit three threes, Jordan Goodwin was so-so, but everyone else was thoroughly routed.
SBU was a Junior-laden team last year, and everyone is back for more. They are near top of the nation in Minutes Continuity and Experience, and are dead-last in Bench Minutes. No need to look beyond Osunniyi, Adaway, Lofton, Holmes and Welch for a difference-maker in this one. So what’s gone wrong with SBU? Their offense looks pretty similar to last year — very slow pace, grind out each possession — though they are not hitting the offensive boards as successfully. But the defense has really suffered — the #20 KenPom defense last year has now dropped to #157, giving up a full 10 points more per 100 possessions. Opponents Effective FG % are up to 50% this year from 45.5% last year. They aren’t forcing many turnovers, so if they are not blocking your shot, you are probably getting a good shot.
Prediction: Yuri Collins controls the game with 11 assists and 1 turnover, and Okoro and Linssen wrestle big double O to a draw down low. SLU wins 78-72.
References
Data from Basketball Reference and Ken Pomeroy and SLUBillikens.com and the NCAA
Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here
Plot format by Aaron Baggett
Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy
Inspiration from Rock M Nation
Team colors courtesy:
Benjamin S. Baumer and Gregory J. Matthews (2020). teamcolors: Color Palettes for Pro Sports Teams. R package version 0.0.4.