With SLU on the outside looking NIT, conference tournaments firing up tomorrow, and one more week in the regular season for most, today seems like a great day to fire up the NBK supercomputer and see which men’s college basketball schools are poised to make it to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since the field was expanded to 64 back in 1985. These are the Never Been Kissed.

Last year, you may recall we had three graduates from these ranks. Creighton secured a 5-seed and benefitted from a bit of March Madness to make the second weekend. Oregon St. fought and cursed their way to a Pac-12 auto-bid, then gnawed their way from a 12-seed all the way to the Elite Eight. And Oral Roberts were the fixation of this nation when they beat Ohio St and Florida before Arkansas ended their magical run.

Previous grads include Houston and Virginia Tech in 2019, South Carolina in 2017 — all the way to the Final Four — and Dayton back in 2014. Will any of these break through this year?

This year’s field is noticeable weaker than last year’s, with none in the Top 20 and the lowest well into the 100s. UC Irvine, Princeton, Liberty, and South Alabama are all tops in their conference in KenPom, but are not leading the conference in the standings and therefore not projected into the field of 68 by Joey Brackets.

Also notable out of this group is the giant spread among the 12-seeds present. San Francisco (a strong #25 in KenPom) and North Texas (40) are woefully underseeded, while South Dakota St‘s position (69) should please all parties, and Iona (87) are getting a Rick Pitino boost. Don’t see your forlorn school here? Never fear – Oregon St. and Oral Roberts were not even on our radar at this time last year. So you Rutgers, St. Bonaventure, and Colorado fans don’t give up just yet.

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and ESPN Bracketology

SLU travels to upstate New York to once again take on St. Bonaventure in a Matinee Nowhere Near Manhattan on Monday, Valentine’s Day 2022. SLU is still smarting from the SBU-administered beating on Friday night at Chaifetz Arena. The final was 68-61 but it did not seem that close, as the Bonnies dominated the second half at both ends of the floor.

This prediction from Friday aged badly:

Prediction: Yuri Collins controls the game with 11 assists and 1 turnover, and Okoro and Linssen wrestle big double O to a draw down low. SLU wins 78-72.

Instead, Yuri Collins offset 7 assists with 8(!) turnovers, and Osun Osunniyi shrugged off foul trouble to contribute 12 points, 6 rebounds and 6(!) blocks in only 26 minutes. While OO sat, big Bonnie backup Abdoul Karim Coulibaly held the Billikens in check, chipping in 3 steals in a conference-season-high 14 minutes. Kyle Lofton overcame some early shooting woes to garner KenPom game MVP honors with 16 points, 8 assists, and 4 steals playing all 40 minutes.

At times, Collins looked like the only offense the Billikens had, as they were mystified by the SBU zone looks. Jordan Nesbitt tossed up a doughnut — his first scoreless outing of the season — and Gibson Jimerson hit two threes early and the broad sides of barns thereafter. Fred Thatch Jr. had one of his worst games as well, and may have cost himself a starting spot on Monday.

The Bonnies that showed up at Chaifetz on Friday night looked like the SBU clubs from the past couple of years: patient, experienced, long, and defiantly not deep. If Friday marked a beginning of a return to form for SBU, they will torpedo SLUs at-large tournament ambitions in the process and likely render the A-10 a one-bid league. KenPom has SBU by a single point 71-70. Hold your loved ones close and enjoy the show.

References

Data from Basketball Reference and Ken Pomeroy and SLUBillikens.com and the NCAA

Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here

Plot format by Aaron Baggett

Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy

Inspiration from Rock M Nation

Team colors courtesy:

Benjamin S. Baumer and Gregory J. Matthews (2020). teamcolors: Color Palettes for Pro Sports Teams. R package version 0.0.4.

https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=teamcolors

Surprising SLU takes on disappointing St. Bonaventure tonight at 8 PM Central at Chaifetz Arena, in the first game of a COVID-induced weekend home-and-home.

The last time these two teams met was in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament last March. SLU came in #39 KenPom, squarely off the bubble but with a punchers chance of scoring the automatic bid. SBU was #30 KenPom and seemed safely IN the field.

Three minutes in, it was 11-2 Bonnies. After taking an 8-point lead into the half, SBU went on a 12-2 run early in the second and the rout was on. SLU never threatened and were trounced 71-53. SLU accepted an NIT bid and took a first-round loss. SBU then beat VCU for the A-10 auto-bid and snagged a 9-seed, then lost big to LSU in round one of the Big Dance.

The blue dots on the chart below show just how feeble SLU was vs SBU last time — Gibson Jimerson came off the bench to hit three threes, Jordan Goodwin was so-so, but everyone else was thoroughly routed.

SBU was a Junior-laden team last year, and everyone is back for more. They are near top of the nation in Minutes Continuity and Experience, and are dead-last in Bench Minutes. No need to look beyond Osunniyi, Adaway, Lofton, Holmes and Welch for a difference-maker in this one. So what’s gone wrong with SBU? Their offense looks pretty similar to last year — very slow pace, grind out each possession — though they are not hitting the offensive boards as successfully. But the defense has really suffered — the #20 KenPom defense last year has now dropped to #157, giving up a full 10 points more per 100 possessions. Opponents Effective FG % are up to 50% this year from 45.5% last year. They aren’t forcing many turnovers, so if they are not blocking your shot, you are probably getting a good shot.

Prediction: Yuri Collins controls the game with 11 assists and 1 turnover, and Okoro and Linssen wrestle big double O to a draw down low. SLU wins 78-72.

References

Data from Basketball Reference and Ken Pomeroy and SLUBillikens.com and the NCAA

Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here

Plot format by Aaron Baggett

Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy

Inspiration from Rock M Nation

Team colors courtesy:

Benjamin S. Baumer and Gregory J. Matthews (2020). teamcolors: Color Palettes for Pro Sports Teams. R package version 0.0.4.

https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=teamcolors