The men’s Sweet Sixteen is now set, including three schools who are there for the first time since the field was first expanded to 64 teams back in 1985.

On Monday, the Creighton Bluejays held Ohio to a .39/.23/.56 shooting line and avoided the Bobbies shot-blockers, ripping off a decisive 23-4 run to close out the first half and open the second. From there they cruised 72-58 to their first Sweet Sixteen and graduated from the Never Been Kissed forever.

Facing a much tougher opponents, fellow 5-seed Colorado was not so fortunate. A relatively tight and slow game — led by Florida St. 24-20 at half — opened up in the second half and the deeper Seminoles wore out the Buffs. CU coughed it up 19 times on offense and had no answer on D for Anthony Polite, the well-mannered young man had 22 points, 4 steals, 5 rebounds and 4 assists. Buffs senior guard McKinley Wright IV struggled with FSU’s length, closing out a career that will count him among the all-time best IV’s in college basketball history.

Abilene Christian followed a win in what would be Shaka Smart’s final game as coach of Texas with an underwhelming performance against suddenly sizzling UCLA. The Bruins took care of the ball — just 9 TOs — shot well from three and were all over the offensive and defensive boards. The Wildcast made their mark and their money but willl return for NBK consideration again next year.

Notes

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and NCAA.org.

Tinkle family powers….activate! Oregon St wins! First Sweet Sixteen appearance for the Beavers since 1982. Things got ugly in this one, but in the end OSU followed an age-old upset formula to take out Oklahoma St.

Oral Roberts wins in a second straight huge upset, this time over 7-seed Florida. The Golden Eagles — as the fourth-place finisher in the Summit, a 15 seed, and 150+ in the KenPom — were not even on the radar of the NBK committe before this historic win. Maybe we owe them an apology? Nah, we’re good. Congrats to the players and that’s all.

With these two off to bigger and better, let’s check in with those whose journey continues. North Texas raced out to a 21-13 lead over #5 Villanova, but the Wildcats restored order quickly and were up 20 at the half, never to look back.

Rutgers‘ loss was a heartbreaker for NBK fans. The #9 Scarlet Knights fought toe-to-toe with #2 Houston and were up 10 with 9:00 to play 52-42. Then the Cougs found a few cracks in the vaunted Rutgers defense, and got the stops and offensive rebounds they needed to eek out a win 63-60. The ‘gers seem to finally have something good going, and we expect them at or near the top of the NBK in 2022.

Monday

• #5 Creighton a strong favorite vs #12 Ohio. You may be wondering about the Bobcats status vis-a-vis the NBK; we know we were after ORU and OSU. Ohio made the Sweet Sixteen in 2012, beating Michigan and South Florida and in the process vaulting coach John Groce to the Illinois job. Three point shooting is often decisive, but Creighton and Ohio are two of the top 2-Point shooting teams in the country (#11 and #10). If Ohio can block a few shots early and force Creighton into a perimeter attack, they might pull this one off and keep the Bluejays in the NBK one more year.
• #5 Colorado is an even match with #4 Florida St. Both shoot the three well, and while Florida St. is super-deep and super-long (#1 in Average Height), Colorado has a decided advantage at the Free Throw line (#2 in FT% at 82.3%). We’ll see if the Seminole depth (hey now) can take the Buff legs out from under them.
• #13 Abilene Christian a longshot vs #11 UCLA, though to me this one is more even than meets the eye. Virtually everything that the Bruins do well on offense, the Wildcats do well on D. The UCLA turnover count will be one to watch at their offensive end, as Abilene is best in the nation at forcing (27.0%, #1). And the Wildcats lone offensive strength 3-Point Shooting % (37.0, #45) is notoriously volatile and upset lover’s catnip.

Notes

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and NCAA.org. For “KenPom Sweet Sixteen Odds” since we are now in Round 2 and on the brink of Sweet Sixteen glory, the KenPom odds ($) are of winning the second round game itself.

Saint Louis University survived and advanced in the Women’s National Invitation Tournament . Hell, they thrived and advanced, with a convincing 61-44 win over Milwaukee on Saturday. Rachel Kent was on fire: 6-7 three pointers, 4-4 from the free throw line, for 24 points. Kent added in 4 rebounds, 2 assists, and a steal. Stuffing the stat sheet was Myriama Smith Traore: 9 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals. Ciaja Harbison and Brooke Flowers were very good again, as always. Flowers did not shoot particularly well or often, but the Milwaukee bigs were held completely in check.

Monday

Having dispatched one set of Panthers from the upper Midwest, the Bills face another in Northern Iowa on Monday night at 7 PM CDT on FloHoops. UNI relies on their shooting ability, as they are a good Free Throw shooting squad (75.2% for #46 in the country per NCAA.org) and a high-volume Three Point shooting regimen (8.6 makes per game, #22 overall). Fortunately for SLU, they shoot threes at only a modest percentage (32.9%, #93) so if the Bills can box out and secure the long rebounds they should get plenty of chances against a middling Panther defense (#198 in FG% defense). UNI does block a fair number of shots (3.9 per game, #80) so maybe this is another one for Harbison and Kent to win from the outside.

Notes

Data courtesy NCAA.org

Game Score metric created by John Hollinger

Plot format by Aaron Baggett

For more information on SLU vs Northern Iowa check out the preview on SLUBillikens.com

“What’s a Billiken?” you ask? “A first-round NIT loser,” we answer.

Saint Louis fell to Mississippi St 74-68 in Texas to end their once-promising season. Among the teams hit hardest by COVID-19, the Bills finish 14-7 and will resume their quest next year to advance past the round of 32 in the Big Dance. Perkins, Collins, Hargrove, Thatch and Jacobs welcome big man transfer Francis Okoro.

Speaking of the Big Dance, Day 2 saw lots of action with the NBK. The big story was 14-seed Abilene Christian, who used a swarming defense to frustrate, dominate, and ultimately eliminate 3-seed Texas late Saturday night 53-52. The Wildcats’ Joe Pleasant stepped to the line and calmly knocked down 2 free throws with 1.6 seconds remaining to give the Wildcats the lead, then stole the inbound to seal it. Abilene takes on UCLA Monday night.

In a head-to-head NBK clash, #5 Creighton outlasted #12 UCSB 63-62 as the Gauchos’ winning shot bounced in and out. Despite the less-than-dominant performance, the Bluejays remain atop the NBK by virtue of some bracket luck. Ohio U knocked off Virginia so the Jays will be a solid favorite on Monday. #5 Colorado dominated #12 Georgetown from the beginning, raining threes and taking care of the ball to the tune of McKinley Wright IV with 13 assists and 0 turnovers. The Buffs have moved all the way up to #11 in the KenPom and are a slight favorite over #17 Florida St. on Monday.

Bowing out on Sunday were the aforementioned UCSB Gauchos as well as Eastern Washington. The Eagles ran out to a 46-40 halftime lead against rotten Kansas, but faltered down the stretch to lose by 10. With the Groves boys returning next year, the Eagles should make a return to the NBK rankings and resume their quest in 2022. Also bowing out was (The) Drake, which shot poorly and struggled with USC’s incredible length. The Drake returns four of five starters next year, and given their epic battles with Loyola this year and the Ramblers current domination of the Illini as I type this, the Bulldogs will be near the top of the NBK watch list in 2022.

Sunday

• Oregon St. takes on Oklahoma St. for eternal rights to the monicker OSU — Ohio St. was already eliminated by Oral Roberts, so they have no claim. The Tinkle family remains ready to rip the Cowboys a verbal new one.
• North Texas will see if their interior defense is enough to overcome a scrappy Villanova missing their recently-injured point guard Colin Gillespie
• Rutgers faced a rough test in round one, rassling their way past Clemson, while Houston dismantled Cleveland St surgically. Recent NBK-grad the Cougs are my pick to win it all this year, but I’ll never root for my bracket over an NBKer. Go Scarlet Knights.

Notes

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and NCAA.org. For “KenPom Sweet Sixteen Odds” since we are now in Round 2 and on the brink of Sweet Sixteen glory, the KenPom odds ($) are of winning the second round game itself.

The opening round is in the books, with three overtime games on Friday, and we check in on the hopes and dreams of those teams who have never made it to the second weekend, never made the Sweet Sixteen…the Never Been Kissed. NBK action on Friday was headed by 13-seed North Texas and their stunning OT victory over 4-seed Purdue in the Boilermakers’ home state. The Mean Green yielded 20(!) offensive rebounds to Purdue but took care of the ball — just 8 turnovers in 45 minutes — and shot it at a 50/43/87 clip to melt down the boilers and move on to the Round of 32.

Welcome to the NBK, Oregon St! The #12 Beavs continued their improbable run with a convincing win over fading #5 Tennessee. 7’1″ Roman Silva was huge for OSU, going a perfect 8-8 from the field and tossing it with 4 rebounds and 3 blocks. OSU debuts at #3 in the NBK this week. Tinkle family…..exalt!

Rutgers (10-seed) won what I thought was the toughtest, most-physical game of Friday, beating a game Clemson (#7) squad. The Scarlet Knights used a 16-2 spurt midway through the second half, and hung on for their NBK life down the stretch.

Saturday – Round 1, Day 2

• #5 Colorado tip off today’s action at 11:15 AM CDT versus a hot #12 Georgetown
• #14 Eastern Washington vs #3 kansas at 12:15 PM CDT
• #9 St. Bonaventure vs #8 LSU at 12:45 PM CDT
• #5 Creighton vs #12 UCSB at 2:30 PM CDT
• #11 Drake vs #6 USC at 3:30 PM CDT
• #14 Abilene Christian vs #3 Texas late night at 8:50 PM CDT

If anyone cares, SLU takes on Mississippi St. in the NIT, prepping for next year’s run at NBK graduation.

Notes

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and NCAA.org. For “KenPom Sweet Sixteen Odds” Ken Pomeroy’s NCAA tourney forecasts are used until the team advances past the first round, in which case the heavy-bordered cell contains the KenPom odds ($) of winning the second round game itself.

The field is set, the snubs have been suffered, and the NCAA tournament finally kicks off Thursday night after a year in hiatus. In this space we track the fortunes of the teams who have never made the Sweet Sixteen since the field was expanded to 64 back in 1985, those who have Never Been Kissed (NBK).

This year we follow thirteen such hopefuls into the NCAAs and in pursuit of second weekend glory and fame. As they have all season, Creighton and Colorado top our list, each a 5-seed with a better than 1 in 3 shot of making the Sweet Sixteen. Creighton has to get past fellow NBKer #12 UCSB then either #4 Virigina or #13 Ohio in order to survive. Colorado faces #12 Georgetown then the winner of #4 Florida St. and #13 UNCG. Those are rough pods to my eye, but if forced I would pick Colorado as the one to emerge.

The next tier of NBK hopefuls are Utah St., Rutgers, and St. Bonaventure down in that 7-11 seed soup. With the 1s and 2s looking particularly strong this year and the 3s vulnerable, KenPom has Utah St., the worst seed of the three, with the best odds by a hair. Drake will also move up into that 14-17% range should they win their First Four game tonight against Wichita St. That is slightly better than a coin toss (57%) so a longer road for the Bulldogs than most.

Of those with a less than 1 in 10 shot of making the Sweet Sixteen and graduating from this list forever, aforementioned UCSB holds out the most hope. Creighton relies pretty heavily on three point shooting, and in an emptier-than-usual Dome setting this could be problematic. If it’s close, the Bluejays are a terrible Free Throw shooting team (#329 in the country per KenPom) and vulnerable to a comeback in the endgame. UCSB is strong from the line at #32. With a pair of dynamic veteran point guards in Creighton’s Marcus Zegarowski and the Gauchos’ JaQuori McLauglin, this should be a fun one to watch.

Notes

Data courtesy Kenpom.com and NCAA.org. For “KenPom Sweet Sixteen Odds” Ken Pomeroy’s NCAA tourney forecasts are used until the team advances past the first round, in which case the heavy-bordered cell contains the KenPom odds ($) of winning the second round game itself.

Survive and advance. The Saint Louis University women’s basketball team — seeded #3 in the Atlantic 10 conference tournament — survived their Friday night quarterfinal tilt with #6 Richmond, eeking out a 59-58 overtime win. SLU point guard Ciaja Harbison overcame 6 TOs to tie the game with 33 seconds left in regulation. Then SLU’s rebounding advantage paid off big at the end of overtime, as Brooke Flowers shot once, twice, three times a lady before making the go-ahead layup in the final minute of overtime.

Next up for SLU is #7 UMass, who upset #2 Fordham 80-70 on Friday. SLU faced UMass in back-to-back games in January of this year. When the Bills were drubbed 78-60 at Chaifetz on 1/22, all indications pointed to a rebuilding year: 0-2 in conference, 2-2 for the season, multiple COVID hiatuses.

But the rematch 1/24 was a different story. Flowers played all 40 minutes, grabbed 21 rebounds and blocked 5 UMass shots. Harbison played 39 minutes and was 7 of 8 from the free throw line, also overcoming 6 TOs that night. Myriama Smith Traore was a perfect 5 of 5 from the field and added 3 assists. And Natalie McNeal and Peyton Kennedy came up big off the bench. SLU would go on to win 11 of the next 12 while the Minutewomen (?) lost four straight.

UMass’ main strength seems to be shooting from inside — Sam Breen was 9 of 15 on Friday night vs Fordham — so Flowers will be crucial to success. Survive and advance.

Notes

Data courtesy NCAA.org

Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html

Plot format by Aaron Baggett: https://baseballwithr.wordpress.com/2015/02/17/conceptualizing-the-mlb-strike-zone-using-pitchfx-data/

With a flurry of action in college basketball on Friday, the biggest mover in our NBK rankings was a team that watched from the sofa: the SLU Billikens are in (the speculative tournament), baby! The Billikens move to the Last Team In in Joey Brackets’ overnight update and hang there by a pinky finger. Who can the Bills thank for their good fortune? Well….

Utah St., first and foremost. The Aggies knocked Colorado St. out of the Mountain West semis and Lunardi’s bracket with a convincing 62-50 win in the final game of the night, solidifying their own position and torpedoing CSU’s. The Billikens thank you, USU.

And SMU. The Mustangs had a statement game too on Friday, unfortunately for their fans their statement read simply: “We absolutely want no part of the NCAA Tournament, and we’ll take no further questions at this time. Thank you and good night.” The Stangs stank vs Cincy, keeping things close for the first half before leaving their energy in the locker room. The Bearcats ran off a 20-1 from late in the first to the first five minutes of the second, and from there SMUs fate was sealed. SLU thanks SMU too.

Take a bow Toledo. Your #14 KenPom offense put up 80 against Ohio, but your #162 defense gave up 87 and you clear a path for Buffalo. The hot wings and the billie heads thank you too.

Saturday

So who’s rooting for who? Primarily it’s the shaky quad SLU, CSU, Boise St. and Drake rooting hard for San Diego St. (59% per KenPom $) over Utah St., for Houston (77%) over Memphis (lurking as a Next Four Out), for Creighton (76%) over Georgetown, and for Colorado (77%) over Oregon St. Odds are that only three of those four actually happen.

Of those single-bid conference schools with skin still in the game, Eastern Washington (78%) and Abilene Christian (77%) join aforementioned Creighton and Colorado as strong favorites today, while Buffalo, UCSB, and North Texas are only slight favorites to go dancing. St. Bonaventure and Colgate fans will have to wait until Sunday for their fate to be decided.

Notes

Data courtesy Kenpom.com , NCAA.org, and ESPN Bracketology. For “Conf Tourney Odds” Ken Pomeroy’s conference tourney forecasts are used until the team advances to the conference tournament final, in which case the heavy-bordered cell contains the KenPom odds ($) of winning the final itself.

With the Saint Louis University men sitting on pins and needles, hoping for half the country to lose games or maybe leak an Addidas tape, the SLU women begin their quest for dancing and advancing Friday night against Richmond on ESPN+. SLU is the #3 seed; Richmond #6. They met once this year back on Valentine’s Day with SLU prevailing 62-57.

Both are coached by Iowa grads — SLU’s Lisa Stone graduated in 1984 and Richmond’s Aaron Rousell in 2001 — and rely primarily on their defense. They are nos 23 (SLU) and 24 (Richmond) in the country in Blocked Shots per Game and are also both among the leaders in Field Goal Percentage Defense; SLU #11, Richmond #27. SLU’s main advantage appears to be on the glass as the Billikens are #5 in Defensive Rebounds per Game. (Yes, I too wish the NCAA provided tempo-free statistics for the women’s game, but here we are).

Looking at the Game Score Per 40 of SLU down below (numbers from the last meeting with Richmond in blue) a few things stand out.

1. How lucky we are as Billikens fans, so quickly after Sadie Stipanovich and Jackie Kemph formed a historically great tandem, to have Brooke Flowers and Ciaja Harbison come in almost right after.
2. How incredibly consistent most of these women are, compared to the men. Ciaja Harbison, Myriama Smith Traore, and Brooke Flowers all bring it game-after-game and have for quite some time now.
3. Flowers and Harbison had particularly good games last time out against Richmond while almost all were only a short distance from their usual production rate.

SLU lost in the semifinal last year as #4 seed to nemesis Dayton.

A full slate of NBK-affecting games on Thursday shook things up substantially, sending shockwaves to the standings of those schools who have never made the Sweet Sixteeen since the NCAA expanded the field to sixty-four back in 1985. Let’s start our look at Thursday with those who moved up in the rankings or solidified their positions.

Creighton crushed Butler 87-56 in the Big East quarterfinal, and with Villanova out of the picture they are the favorites to take the crown and improve their seeding. The Bluejays moved into the Top 10 in KenPom with their win. Tough test on Friday as they get surging UConn (#17 KenPom) in the semifinals.

Utah St. pantsed UNLV 74-53 in the pivotal Mountain West quarters, holding serve such that Joey Brackets moved them from the OUT to the IN list with a tenuous grip on the dubious Last Team In. Their game on Friday with Colorado St. is of most consequence to the NBK, KenPom has USU as a slight favorite (57%).

Rutgers beat Indiana 61-50 and solidified their Bracketology position, moving up one line from a 10-seed to a 9-seed. For NBK purposes this is a bit of a demotion — we view the 7-10 seed soup as all one thing, and the #1 seeds look impervious to early round defeat this year — so Rutgers stays put at #4 in the NBK rankings.

On the negative side of the ledger, Boise St. blew their chances by bowing to Nevada 89-82 in the Mountain West quarters. They essentially swapped Bracketology places with Utah St., moving from IN to OUT, and in the NBK dropped all the way down behind SLU to #19 — you do not want to be behind SLU at this moment in time. It’s looking very NIT for the blue turfers.

Toledo needed overtime to get past Ball St. but are a reasonably solid favorite today (61% per KenPom) so will stay put. All other NBKers advanced. Here are all the Friday odds of winning for NBK teams, per KenPom ($):

Notes

Data courtesy Kenpom.com , NCAA.org, and ESPN Bracketology. For “Conf Tourney Odds” Ken Pomeroy’s conference tourney forecasts are used until the team advances to the conference tournament final, in which case the heavy-bordered cell contains the KenPom odds ($) of winning the final itself.