The Billikens take to the medium lights, medium city tonight on ESPN2 at Dayton. This continues Revenge Week as the Bills look to atone for their two straight stumbles leading off conference season. Since starting 0-2 the Bills have taken care of business, reeling off four straight including a commanding win over LaSalle on Tuesday.

The first matchup between these two was a Flyer victory on January 26th, the Bills first game in a month. Goodwin and Jimerson in particular struggled for SLU, while Crutcher did a decent impression of Obi Toppin for a night and they got a boost from Brea.

SLU seeks revenge over Dayton and relief from the bubble watch, and are catching Dayton on the downswing. The Flyers have lost 3 of 4 coming in.

References

Data from Basketball Reference and Ken Pomeroy and the NCAA

Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html

Plot format by Aaron Baggett: https://baseballwithr.wordpress.com/2015/02/17/conceptualizing-the-mlb-strike-zone-using-pitchfx-data/

Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy: http://kenpom.com/

Inspiration from Rock M Nation: http://www.rockmnation.com/missouri-tigers-basketball

Team colors courtesy:

Benjamin S. Baumer and Gregory J. Matthews (2020). teamcolors: Color Palettes for Pro Sports Teams. R package version 0.0.4.

https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=teamcolors

Since stumbling out of the COVID delay gate with a pair of losses, all but erasing the goodwill built up during a succuessful non-conference run in late 2020, SLU has rebounded with a pair of home wins to even their conference record at 2-2. They travel to New York on Saturday to take on lesser set of Rams, those of Fordham. These Rams forewent (?) a non-conference season entirely and now sit at 2-10 in the conference. Oddly, their only wins have been against the teams SLU recently lost to – Dayton and LaSalle. Outside of the Eric Paschall year, the Fordham Rams have dwelt in the basement of the A-10 for quite some time, buttressed by Saint Joseph’s recent struggles.

The Rams are young and small and not deep. Lone big man Joel Soriano stands 6’11” and is a formidable rebounder and shot-blocker, continuing a string of such matchups for Hasahn French and his cohorts Martin Linssen and Jimmy Bell Jr.

SLU is gaining reputation as the hardest team in the field for the committee to judge. A loss at Fordham will make it easy, the hard way. The slate of must-win games continues.

Toughest team on the board (to evaluate). https://t.co/4JQYClPW5w

— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) February 12, 2021

References

Data from Basketball Reference and Ken Pomeroy and the NCAA

Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html

Plot format by Aaron Baggett: https://baseballwithr.wordpress.com/2015/02/17/conceptualizing-the-mlb-strike-zone-using-pitchfx-data/

Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy: http://kenpom.com/

Inspiration from Rock M Nation: http://www.rockmnation.com/missouri-tigers-basketball

The Billikens breathed some life back into their season with a win over St. Bonaventure over the weekend, and now turn their attention to the visiting Rhode Island Rams on Wednesday night at the Chaif. The Rams boast a solid defense (#35 overall in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency per KenPom) with multiple shot-blockers inside and on the wings. Hasahn French has struggled against taller opponents of late, and we’ll see if that trend continues.

On offense, the only area where Rhode Island stands out is in their ability to get to the Free Throw line. They come in #28 in FTA/FGA per KenPom, and in their best wins of the season they have gone to the stripe to beat opponents St Bonaventure (25 free throw attempts by Rhody), Seton Hall (24), and VCU (30!). Fatts Russell continues to lead the Rams along with running mate Jeremy Shephard. The senior guard duo is supported up front by big man Makhel Mitchell, 6’10” sophomore transfer from Maryland. Makhel’s brother Makhi, also transferred in from Maryland, was injured in the Western Kentucky game and is out for the remainder of the season, so another Eminem Malik Martin comes off the bench to swat shots.

SLU will be able to turn the Rams over and the more they can be handsy with the Rams without fouling the better their chances to get to .500 in the conference. Before the St. Bonaventure game I said SLU needed to win their next five in order to stay off the bubble and position themselves for a decent seed in the NCAAs and a possible first-ever Sweet Sixteen berth. I stand by that proclamation. One down, four more to go.

References

Data from Basketball Reference and Ken Pomeroy and the NCAA

Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html

Plot format by Aaron Baggett: https://baseballwithr.wordpress.com/2015/02/17/conceptualizing-the-mlb-strike-zone-using-pitchfx-data/

Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy: http://kenpom.com/

Inspiration from Rock M Nation: http://www.rockmnation.com/missouri-tigers-basketball

Saint Louis University, darlings of the NET ending 2020, have come off their COVID layoff with an extreme hangover. Consecutive losses to Dayton and LaSalle have the Bills tangled in the NET (#52 from a peak of #10) and flopping down the KenPom (#54 from a more-modest peak of #26). They sit last in the Atlantic 10 at 0-2 and host the first-place and surprising St Bonaventure Bonnies on Saturday at Chaifetz Arena. The Super Bon Bons were no one’s pick to win the A-10 this year, started their season way late due to COVID delays — they only managed two non-conference games — but have continued to win and climb the charts. They are the bizarro Billikens.

Like Dayton last week, the Bonnies have the peculiar statistical distinction of holding their opponents to a low Free Throw % (62.3%, #5 in KenPom). How that manifested itself in the Bills-Flyers game were French and Goodwin chucking a combined 4-11 from the stripe in a game SLU lost by 5.

On an individual level, SBU continues to be one of the Jalen-est schools in the country, with two on the current roster (Adaway and Shaw) following in the footsteps of Adams, Adams, and Poyser. The Bonnies are pretty well balanced, relying heavily on their starting five but spreading the load in terms of usage rate and go-to-guyness. In their only loss to Rhode Island, guard Jaren Holmes played just one minute so maybe we call him first among equals.

With both teams sporting a good mix of guards and wings, the battle down low may prove decisive. Osun Osunniyi is a terrific rebounder on both ends and a very good shot-blocker. At 6’10” he is much taller than the Bills bigs. If he imposes his will on Hasahn French and controls the paint, SLU may be forced to try to win the game from the outside. The Bills have shot reasonably well from three this year but remain reluctant to let it fly (#332 in 3PA/FGM), as are the Bonnies (#338).

SBU is loaded with Juniors, so expect them to follow up this surprising season entering 2021-22 as prohibitive favorites in the Atlantic 10.

References

Data from Basketball Reference and Ken Pomeroy and the NCAA

Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html

Plot format by Aaron Baggett: https://baseballwithr.wordpress.com/2015/02/17/conceptualizing-the-mlb-strike-zone-using-pitchfx-data/

Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy: http://kenpom.com/

Inspiration from Rock M Nation: http://www.rockmnation.com/missouri-tigers-basketball