Basketball is back! Saint Louis University men’s basketball has been shutdown for what has seemed like an eternity, last playing UMKC on December 23rd before shutting down due to COVID-19 test results, contact tracing, and more of the same. The absentee Bills have remained relevant in the hearts and minds of AP voters and come into tonight’s game ranked 22nd on the strength of their 7-1 non-conference performance. While SLU was away, the Dayton Flyers did play to the tune of seven (!) conference games. A nice OT win for the Flyers over Davidson has been more than offset by bad losses at Fordham and home to LaSalle. Last time out they were smoked by VCU 66-43 to drop to 8-4 overall, 4-3 in conference, and #85 in the KenPom.

Dayton features one of the better guard combos in the Atlantic 10 in seniors Jalen Crutcher (6’1″) and Ibi Watson (6’5″) and are balanced with a so-so offense (#79 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency per KenPom.com) and a ho-hum defense (#95 in Adj Def Eff per KP LOL). Where the Flyers REALLY excel is in the ultra-strange category of “Defensive Free Throw %”. Dayton leads the country at 60.7% per KenPom.com.

“Hold the phone, What’s a Billiken, I thought free throws were undefended.” You are correct in that statement, but holding opponents to a low FT % does appear to be a skill coached under Anthony Grant. The Flyers have improved in this category each year since Archie Miller left for Indiana:

• 2017-18 71.5% #192
• 2018-19 70.5% #161
• 2019-20 64.4% #5
• 2020-21 60.7% #1 (thru Sat 1/23)

Generally this means they don’t foul guards and they do foul bigs, a very vulnerable spot for SLU with Hasahn French laying bricks (1-7 this year and only about 33% for his career). Goodwin has been a sub-standard free throw shooter but this year is up to 71%.

Chase Johnson is the Dayton equivalent of SLU’s Eliot Welmer – he’s left the Flyer program after five games this season due to injury concerns, and has only played 19 games total between Florida and Dayton over four years. He retains at least one year of eligibility so we’ll wish him well and see if he resurfaces next year.

The two places where Dayton appears most vulnerable look like areas that SLU can exploit. Dayton turns the ball over quite a bit (#308 in Turnover % per KenPom.com) and gives up quite a few offensive rebounds (#283 in keeping opponents off the Offensive glass). Let’s count SLU free throw possessions as turnovers committed, and SLU offensive rebounds as turnovers forced, and see if the Billikens can win the adjusted amalgamated TO battle (AATOB) and the game to take a commanding lead in the Atlantic 10 at 1-0 🙂

References

Data from Basketball Reference and Ken Pomeroy

Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html

Plot format by Aaron Baggett: https://baseballwithr.wordpress.com/2015/02/17/conceptualizing-the-mlb-strike-zone-using-pitchfx-data/

Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy: http://kenpom.com/

Inspiration from Rock M Nation: http://www.rockmnation.com/missouri-tigers-basketball

With Saint Louis University on continued COVID-19 hiatus, we take a look at Missouri @ Mississipi St.

Mizzou hits the road to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs tonight 1/5, with both teams 1-1 in the SEC, each having opened up conference play with a Home loss and a Road win. With Mizzou #40 and MSU #75 in the KenPom ratings, this game is just about dead even by the math.

Like the last two Mizzou opponents Tennessee and Arkansas, Mississippi St is very good on the offensive boards (#8). The Tigers held their own with the Vols but were absolutely creamed by the Hogs on their offensive glass. So maybe that doesn’t matter. Shrug emoji.

The Bulldogs are young and tall (#299 in Experience and #6 in Average Height) and went 2-OT earlier this week with similarly configured Kentucky (#339 in Experience, # 5 Average Height).

The Bulldogs feature three high-volume three-point shooters in sophomore D.J. Stewart Jr. (44% from three), sophomore Iverson Molinar (50%) off the bench, and redshirt senior Jalen Johnson (40%). Readers of this space will remember Johnson from his two years with Saint Louis University. He sat out a transfer year before running with Louisiana Lafayette last year. The Baton Rouge native was more of a mid-range guy with SLU, then handled the ball a lot last year for the Rajun Cajuns (to not-so-great effect); he has broken into the MSU starting lineup of late as a 3-and-D specialist.

Mizzou continues to rely heavily on the driving and foulability of Xavier Pinson, as well as Tilmon and Mitchell Smith’s abilities to battle down low. The Tigers are rated very highly in both the NET and the human polls, though KenPom is not as impressed. Sam Snelling of Rock M Nation pointed out that pre-season expectations and last year’s results are dragging down Mizzou to this point. His reasoning is sound. This feels like the kind of game a cohesive veteran team wins. Don’t help off the shooters and secure the defensive boards, Pinson makes ten free throws and it’s a happy flight home.