As I prepared for this post Saint Louis University announced that the men’s basketball program is on pause for two weeks following positive COVID-19 tests in the program Dec 28th. And tonight’s scheduled conference opener vs Duquesne is postponed. Here’s what I would have said about it…
SLU opens Atlantic 10 play tonight at home vs Duquesne. The Dukes are just getting re-started this year, going 1-1 in late November early December before shutting down for most of Dec. Michael Hughes, Marcus Weathers, and Tavian Dunn-Martin are the seniors and take most of the shots. Sincere Carry runs the offense in all earnestness and serves as another guy who gets to the line at a high rate — the Dukes are #7 in the country in FTA/FGA per Kenpom.com. The Dukes lead the country in the their short season in defensive FT%, which likely means SLUs bigs will be wearing a path to the stripe.
From the Bills perspective, SLU shook off a post-Minnesota hangover in time to beat UMKC last Wednesday night. SLU controlled the boards and turned the Roos over 14 times to overcome a poor FT-shooting night — one of the few so far this season, after stinking it up from the line all last year.
Since SLU vs Duquesne is off, let’s take a look at the conference opener for my other favorite team. Mizzou takes on Tennessee in a battle of early favorites for the SEC crown. Like Duquesne above, Tennessee has a slow start to the season, not playing any November games and now 6-0 in December. The Vols are #8 KenPom and #7 in the human poll. Mizzou is hugely overrated, coming in at just #40 KenPom but #12 by the humans.
Tennessee is very good on the Offensive Boards, both acquiring and preventing (#13 both on KenPom), and has a number of shot blockers (#7 KenPom). They play slow and Mizzou is not much of a running team either, so expect this to be a half-court slugfest.
To say Jaden Springer is off to a good start is to significantly undersell the contributions of the 6’4″ freshman thus far. He’s shooting it at a .529/.667/.750 while blocking shots and getting to the line at a high rate. All off the bench. Victor Bailey Jr. has been a nice addition as well, as the Oregon 6’4″ junior transfer has shot it well at a high usage rate. I’m expecting we will see a lot of Dru Smith on Bailey and Springer. John Fulkerson is back for a fifth year, and his five turnovers kept Mizzou within shouting distance in last year’s game. We’ll see if Tilmon or Mitchell Smith can force more. EJ Anosike is a grad transfer from Sacred Heart and a good rebounder, and Keon Johnson is the big freshman guard leading the bench mob with Springer. So far Johnson has shot is about as well as Yves Pons, so their contributions will come from somewhere other than made shots.
Mizzou really does not have great talent compared to teams of the past, but all of these guys seems to be getting better. And the rise of guys like Xavier Pinson and Parker Braun means that less is required of Kobe Brown (no relation) and Javon Pickett. Team Scrawn for more and better options on offense; Team Brawn to get on the boards and play physical defense.
