As we assemble this post it looks as though more and more conference tournaments are going to be cancelled outright due to COVID-19. The Ivy League started off by cancelling their tourney; most conferences with tourneys in-flight completed theirs. And many of those that had not started said they would play to a closed audience (family and staff). This situation is changing rapidly. Stay tuned and stay healthy.
Hofstra wins! The Pride advance to the Cavernous Big Dance by virtue of their win over Northeastern on Tuesday night. Joey Brackets has them as a 14-seed.
Colgate loses! The Raiders fell to Boston University on Wednesday night in a tight Patriot League final.
Colorado loses! Upset by arch-rivals California, the Buffaloes are still solidly in the field of 68.
Welcome North Dakota St! The Bison are champions of the Summit League by virtue of their win over North Dakota. They are going dancing and have never made the Sweet Sixteen.
NBK Standings through games of Wednesday 3/11/2020. Data courtesy of KenPom.com and Basketball Reference. Bracketology available on ESPN.com. Ken Pomeroy published his Log5 results this year via Twitter. If a team has reached the championship of their conference tournament, we use KenPom’s game odds as their Tourney Odds. You can find helpful information at NCAA.com on conference championship games. Yale did not win the Ivy League tournament — that tournament was cancelled and Yale advances to the NCAA tournament as the regular season champion. Thus the asterisk.
Our NBK update begins with Hofstra, which used an 18-3 run midway through the first half to open up a gulf between themselves and Delaware and pull away Monday night. Joe Biden was unavailable for comment. The Pride move(s) on to the Colonial Athletic Association final on Wednesday night vs Northeastern. Hofstra is a slight favorite at 57% per KenPom.
Wright St. bowed out of the Horizon league tourney and also the NBK rankings with an upset loss to UIC in their first round game. Guessing the Raiders will be making an NIT appearance, but I have lost track of what the selection criteria entails. Stay tuned.
We all await with tooty grins the Colgate matchup with BU on Wednesday.
And though Siena does not play until later in the week, they stayed in the news:
BK Standings through games of Monday 3/9/2020. Data courtesy of KenPom.com and Basketball Reference. Bracketology available on ESPN.com. Ken Pomeroy is publishing his Log5 results this year via Twitter. If a team has reached the championship of their conference tournament, we use KenPom’s game odds as their Tourney Odds. Helpful information at NCAA.com on conference championship games.
Winthrop is IN! Liberty is in too. Not sure what was happening at NBK headquarters this weekend, but somehow we missed out on the demise of South Dakota St. The Jackrabbits fell to Purdue Fort Wayne on Saturday, and the Summit League favorite conch moves to Monday’s winner between North Dakota St. and Oral Roberts. NBK recognition and a trip to the conference tourament final are at stake.
East Tennessee St. held serve over the weekend and takes center stage on ESPN on Monday night as a heavy favorite to beat Wofford and secure the auto-bid.
Colgate is also on the verge of advancing, with only Boston University in their path on Wednesday night. The Molars are a 73% favorite, same as ETSU.
The Big Ten wrapped up their regular season on Sunday, and KenPom posted the Log5 with Rutgers having only a slim chance. Joey Brackets views their at-large position as very safe.
BK Standings through games of Sunday 3/8/2020. Data courtesy of KenPom.com and Basketball Reference. Bracketology available on ESPN.com. Ken Pomeroy is publishing his Log5 results this year via Twitter. If a team has reached the championship of their conference tournament, we use KenPom’s game odds as their Tourney Odds.Helpful information at NCAA.com on conference championship games.
[An earlier version of this post mangled the Summit League semifinal matchup horribly — GR]
It was a great Saturday for the NBK if your name was not Don’t Call Me Mark Furman, but we’ll get to them in due time.
Congratulations to the Utah St. Aggies, who took down mighty San Diego St. with a last second three from the intrepid Sam Merrill and in doing so punched their ticket to the big dance. Belmont got past Murray St. in a thriller to capture the Ohio Valley conference crown. That’s two for the NBK.
Our own SLU Billikens made a power move, pummelling St. Bonaventure to move up in the Atlantic 10 rankings — #3 by KenPom and #4 in final standing — and to #7 in the NBK. The Bills earned a double-bye and a likely rematch with the saggy Bonnies on Friday in Crooklyn.
With most conferences completing their regular season play on Saturday, Ken Pomeroy released the rest of his Log5 projections for next week’s conference tourneys, with only the Big TenElevenFourteen lagging. Of the newest batch, Stephen Freaking Austin at 58.1% has the best odds of getting in via the auto-bid. Most precarious are SLU and NC State, both with long odds of winning the auto-bid and tenuous places on the wrong side (Billikens) and the right side (Wolfpack) of the ever-shifting bubble.
You may be asking “what about the Missouri Valley Conference, aren’t two low-rated teams in the final?” Yes, Bradley vs Valpo seems like an NBK fever dream, but both have already achieved Sweet Sixteenness — the Braves in 2006 and the Crusaders back in 1998 — and are therefore NBK-ineligible.
Wither Furman. The Paladins ran into nemesis Wofford in the conference tournament opener, and just as in their regular meeting the Terriers came out on top. Wofford had entered the Southern Conference tournament on a seven game losing streak. Ugh. I am sure the folks at whatsapaladin.com are crushed about now.
Best of luck to Winthrop in their championship game on Sunday. The tournament field is beginning to take shape.
SLU takes on St. Bonaventure tonight at Chaifetz Arena with something at stake. These teams sit tied for fourth in the Atlantic 10 with identical 11-6 marks in the regular season finale for both. Loser has to play Thursday; winner waits until Friday, where they likely meet again.
SLU has fought their way onto the NBK rankings, and a win today would improve their position greatly to get back to the NCAAs. The Bonnies are very young – #336 in experience – and rely almost exclusively on underclassmen. Osun Osunniyi is a force inside, shooting 62% and blocking shots at a rate that is #17 nationally. Hasahn French is #31 and should be up to the challenge.
This final game is a rematch of last year’s A-10 championship brawl, in which Kyle Lofton was terrorized by defensive maven Javon Bess. Lofton is a year older and Bess has moved on to the G League.
Well, well well. Look who decided to join us in the NBK. None other than the Saint Louis University Billikens! The Bills were the original inspiration for these fake conference standings, though they have been absent from them all year. SLU started the season at #142 and were more DNK than NBK. With Wednesday’s win at George Mason they extend their winning steak to four and move up to #70, squarely on our NBK radar. SLU plays St. Bonaventure today in a battle for the #4 seed and double-bye in the A-10 tournament.
Welcome also to Siena! The MAAC champions started the year at #244 and got off to a 3-4 start in conference play. The Saints turned it around and are riding a nine-game winning streak into the conference tournament.
Utah St. came back to beat Wyoming on Friday night for a spot in the Mountain West final against prohibitive favorite San Diego St., a likely #1 seed in the upcoming NCAAs no matter Saturday’s result. KenPom’s puts the Aggies chances of beating the Aztecs at 27%. Joey Brackets views this game as an all-or-nothing for the Aggies. Dig deep, Aggies.
Liberty struggled in both of their wins in the Atlantic Sun tourney, and will look to advance to the big dance when they take on Lipscomb on Sunday. It’s a home game for the Flames and they are an overwhelming favorite at 90%.
Belmont also reached the finals of their conference tournament, and will take on Murray St. on Saturday for Ohio Valley supremacy and the auto-bid. This one shapes up to be a dog fight, as the Bruins are only a 58% favorite over the Racers.
That lovable redhead Winthrop takes the prize this week for having the highest odds of advancing automatically. The Eagles take to their home floor on Sunday against surprising Hampton with a Big South title and big dance ticket on the line. KenPom puts their odds of winning at 91%.
Colgate won their opener in the Patriot League tourney, and are looking minty fresh going into the semifinal on Sunday. Wright St. also advanced to their semifinal, Monday night vs UIC.
North Texas stumbled this week, losing at Charlotte. They already had the CUSA title wrapped up and had little to gain.
NBK Standings through games of Friday 3/6/2020. Data courtesy of KenPom.com and Basketball Reference. Bracketology available on ESPN.com. Ken Pomeroy is publishing his Log5 results this year via Twitter. If a team has reached the championship of their conference tournament, we use KenPom’s game odds for their Tourney Odds.
Quite a bit of downward movement characterizes this week in the Never Been Kissed — those schools who have never made it to the Sweet Sixteen since the field was expanded to 64 back in 1985. SLU (not pictured) had a huge road win over Rhode Island, moving the Rams to the wrong side of the bubble, but improving the Billikens NBK standing. They may yet “pull a Furman” as the Southern conference runner-up earned a bye and got back on our radar.
North Texas clinched the Conference USA regular season title this weekend with an OT win over Western Kentucky. Creighton and Colorado stumbled with losses to St. John’s and Stanford, respectively.
UNC Greensboro dropped two straight, including a home loss to the aforementioned Furman, to lose the race for the bye in the SoCon and also drop off of our radar. They still have a 19.0% chance per Log5 of winning the conference tourney lottery ticket.
NBK Standings through games of Sunday 3/1/2020. Data courtesy of KenPom.com and Basketball Reference. Bracketology available on ESPN.com. Ken Pomeroy is publishing his Log5 results this year via Twitter.
SLU travels to Providence to take on a Rams club that is working to solidify their NCAA position — Joey Brackets has them as a slippling 11-seed at the moment — while the Bills jockey with Duquesne, St. Bonaventure, Davidson, and VCU for the #4 spot in the Atlantic 10 tournament. The Bills swept in from the #6 spot to win the whole thing last year, so maybe the jockeying doesn’t matter so much.
The Rams feature Fatts Russell as the unanimous runner-up for A-10 Player of the Year honors — Obi Toppin of Dayton has locked up A10 POY and is in the running for National POY — but question marks for the rest of their Top Three. Cyril Langevine has been a stalwart but missed the last game with a lower-body injury. And Jeff Dowtin played but his minutes were limited. In short, the Rams are banged up. SLU catches Rhody at an opportune time, as the Rams will likely need Tyrese Martin or Jacob “Brother of Obi” Toppin to team with Fatts.
SLU’s Player history echoes a familiar poitical trope: the disappearing middle class. There is no longer any question that Javonte Perkins is one of the most explosive Billikens scorers we have ever seen, and Hargrove is an effective understudy. Do they sacrifice too much on defense for what they deliver on offense?
A top four of Goodwin, French, Hargrove, and Perkins seems intriguing but jankety once you add the fifth guy. Here are the candidates:
JBJ gives you rebounding and rim protection, but huge sacrifices in ball-handling and shooting
Weaver gives you shooting but shrinkage and no distribution
Collins can run the show but his handling and assists are largely off-set by turnovers
Jacobs is a utility guy, and maybe gets hot and hits a couple of threes. If not, he generally just gives you more of what is already on the floor.
College Basketball analysis and other random tidbits
