Iona topped Monmouth in a tense MAAC final. Joey Brackets has Monmouth (and St. Bonaventure) hanging on as one of the Last Four In, so we keep them in the NBK.
Ken Pomeroy posted the Pac-12 and SEC odds, which do not favor Colorado (2.7%) nor South Carolina (7.6%). Both may be safely in, but each could use a deep conference tourney run to avoid a #1 or #2 seed in the second round.
The Pomeroy computer was much kinder to St. Bonaventure, giving the Atlantic-10 conference co-champs Bonnies a 12.6% chance of grabbing the auto-bid.
Stony Brook handled their business on Monday, easily dispatching Hartford by 16 and advancing to the next round. Look for that game whenever the America East gets around to holding it.
UNC Wilmington secured a bid by winning the CAA over Hofstra, mortally wounding the Pride and relegating it to gray, gray shame.
For the first time in a week, Oregon St. finds itself on the outside looking in as Joey Brackets lists them as First Four Out. With a 2.2% chance of winning the Pac-12 Tournament, the Beavers are poised on the brink of NBK elimination.
Welcome Green Bay! The Phoenix rose right into the field by romping through the Horizon League tourney, knocking off number one seed Valparaiso in OT in the semifinal, then getting by Wright St in the final early Tuesday eve.
South Dakota St squares off against North Dakota St in the Summit League final tonight.
In the 31 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournaments since the field expanded to 64 teams, the University of North Carolina Tar Heels have made it to the Sweet Sixteen a whopping 20 times. Near neighbor Duke has the most Sweet Sixteen appearances with 22. And nearby North Carolina State has made the second weekend on six occasions.
Neither UNC Wilmington nor UNC Asheville have made the Sweet Sixteen in that span. Both are currently on our watchlist of the Never Been Kissed, teams looking to make their first appearance in the Sweet Sixteen. The young-and-exuberant Asheville squad won their conference tournament on Sunday, and Wilmington will battle Hofstra to the death tonight.
The NBK rankings through Sunday’s action:
Through Sunday 3/6
Yale moves up significantly, as the surprise of their first NCAA Tournament appearance in fifty years gives way to the possibility that they might, just maybe, win a couple of games. Projected as a 13-seed, the Bulldogs may draw a favorable matchup with a 4-seed in decline.
Monmouth and Iona are battling it out for the MAAC Championship as I type. The winner will likely be a 12-seed regardless of who comes out on top.
Stephen F. Austin got some good news today as KenPomeroy’s simulator gives him an overwhelming 76.4% chance of winning the Southland tournament. Per KenPom, that is the most of any school this year. Have a ball, Steve-O.
The Evansville Purple Aces joined the gray ranks of the dismayed on Sunday, as they were knocked off by Wes Washpun and his Northern Iowa cronies in the MVC final of Arch Madness. Evansville started slowly, came out with their pants on fire in the second half, and nearly completed the comeback. But Washpun was too tough to handle down the stretch and his jumper from the top of the key dropping with 0.0 dashed the Purple Aces dreams.
I guess Stony Brook plays again tonight, but I am not sure the format of the America East conference tournament. They seem to prize well-rested basketball above all other factors, with five days between each round of action. Perhaps they will complete their conference tourney before the start of the NCAAs, but I don’t want to rush them.
One week to Selection Sunday, and conference tournament season is heating up. Plenty of action in the Never Been Kissed conference, as those teams who have never made the Sweet Sixteen in the 31 tournaments since the field expanded to 64 vie for contention.
First, the updated standings through Saturday’s action:
NBK rankings, through Saturday 3/5
We have added the gray section to honor the fallen. These teams are OUT and are playing for next year’s NBK. SMU has been gray all year, serving a one-year postseason ban. And like rain on your wedding day, isn’t it ironic that the Mustangs are now 16th in the country by the KenPom.
Princeton will not be puckering up this year, as Yale beat Columbia on Saturday to clinch the Ivy and thus the automatic bid. The Tigers will close the season with a meaningless game on Tuesday.
James Madison also joined the ranks of the gray and grim on Saturday, falling to both William & Mary in the CAA tournament. The Tribe may push their way into the NBK rankings before all is said and done at the CAA in Baltimore.
Colorado remains atop the NBK, despite a close 2-point loss at Utah. The Buffs are in the top spot mainly due to their position safely in the tournament, but as Selection Sunday approaches we will need to adjust our ranking criteria. It will become more important to avoid play-in games and encounters with #1 seeds in round two. Colorado would be better off climbing to a 7-seed or dropping down to a 10- or 11-seed, in terms of their Sweet Sixteen odds.
South Carolina trounced Arkansas to stop a two-game losing skid.
Welcome Evansville! Jim Crews’ old club trounced Indiana St by 26 to move on to the Arch Madness final. There they expected to meet Wichita St, but the Shockers were upset in OT by Northern Iowa. So the Purple Aces go from being a heavy underdog to a slight favorite to clinch the bid in Sunday’s final.
Welcome Iona! With Princeton’s demise, a spot in the NBK 16 opened up and the Gaels rushed to fill the void. The precarious ranking is justified, however, as Iona will have to beat Siena on their home floor tonight, then presumably knock off rival Monmouth in the final.
We mentioned yesterday the NBK Selection Committee would be in attendance for the St Bonaventure game at SLU. Much as they did last week vs Dayton, the Billikens sufficiently mucked things up to make the game close and interesting. We counted four players tended to for blood on their bodies or uniforms or both. The Bonnies backcourt scraped to a 9-point win at Chaifetz Arena, securing a share of the Atlantic-10 for SBU. Well done Bonnies, but not enough to move them up in the NBK.
Honorary mention to Austin Peay — the 8-seed from the OVC — winning the auto-bid on Saturday, completing a four-game tear. This marks the first time all year the 18-17 Governor have been over .500 and the first time they have won four straight. Austin Peay has never made the Sweet Sixteen and though they are now safely in the field will need some help in cracking the Never Been Kissed rankings.
Updated rankings for the Never Been Kissed conference (through Friday’s games):
2016-03-05 at 1.32.03 PM
Harvard, one of last year’s NBK hopefuls, is in the spoiler role this year. They upset Princeton on Friday night 73-71, putting Yale back in the driver’s seat in the Ivy
Meanwhile, Yale beat Cornell handily on Friday, setting up a crucial finale at Columbia today. A win, the they’re in.
Elsewhere across the league, Monmouth and Iona both won their quarterfinals, and appear on a collision course in the MAAC final on Monday
Akron closed out their regular season by winning its third straight, and took the top seed in the MAC Tournament
A big weekend approaches for those seeking their first Sweet Sixteen ever, or at least since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1995.
Here are the top contenders in the Never Been Kissed fake conference:
* Because South Dakota St shared the Summit League conference regular season title, and IPFW won both meetings and thus the tiebreaker, Joey Brackets lists IPFW as a 15-seed. Since SD St has the higher KenPom ranking, we favor them in this space, putting us at risk of being on the business end of an IPFWFU or even an IUPUI
** Television network listed is for the conference tournament’s Championship game only
*** KenPom Log5 refers to the simulations run by Ken Pomeroy and published in his daily blogs, projecting likelihood of the team winning their conference tournament. If you love college basketball and have not yet subscribed to KenPom.com, do so now. I’ll wait.
Friday Afternoon Notes:
St. Bonaventure, previously among the “First 4 Out”, is now among “Last 4 In” per Joey Brackets. We moved them up quite a bit in the NBK rankings. The NBK Selection Committee will see the Bonnies in person when they take on SLU tomorrow night. While the Committee is sure to administer variations of the Eye Test, the Sniff Test, and the Five Second Rule, we are confident if the Bonnies fall to the Billies, their at-large goose will be cooked.
Oregon St. stunk things up a bit this week, falling Wednesday night at USC 81-70, but they remain in Joey Brackets’ current field nonetheless
Big games tonight and tomorrow for Yale and Princeton. Both hit the road for a pair, with Yale facing the tougher test on Saturday at Columbia to close out their regular season. KenPom projects a Columbia 1-point win. So Princeton could emerge from the weekend needing only a home win against #294 Penn on Tuesday to clinch the Ivy title and the automatic bid
Stony Brook got by UMBC on Wednesday to advance to the semifinals of the America East tourney
Monmouth and the CAA trio kick off their action Friday
Ken Pomeroy is now blogstreaming his Log5 Conference tournament odds, which factor into the NBK rankings
St. Bonaventure is the most-upwardly-mobile of teams in today’s NBK rankings, with a huge game against A-10 leader St. Joseph’s on Tuesday night
As the Ivy sorts out and the Colonial start conference tournament play, these one-bid leagues will yield spots to other conference tournament contenders with medium-sized dreams
College Basketball analysis and other random tidbits
