There are 351 schools competing in NCAA Division I basketball this year.

In the 31 NCAA tournaments  since the field was first expanded to 64 teams back in 1985, just over one-third (122 or 35%) have made it to the Sweet Sixteen.

We devote this space at What’s a Billiken to those 239 teams chasing their first ever Sweet Sixteen, those schools who have Never Been Kissed.   Our beloved Saint Louis Billikens finished well off the mark this year and fired their coach with two years remaining on his contract.  The goal of reaching their first Sweet Sixteen by the school’s 200th anniversary in 2018 — the mission of the 16×18 Society — seems further away than before.

However, three schools now stand poised on the brink of fulfilling their dreams and basking in that second-weekend glow.

Stephen F. Austin stands the best chance among the three.  By our estimation as well as Ken Pomeroy’s, the Lumberjacks go into today’s tilt with Notre Dame as slight favorites to advance.  The elite offense of the Fighting Irish (#10 AdjO per KenPom) will be up against the Lumberjacks’ tenacious D (#11 AdjD per KenPom), so the Jacks advantage must be on the other side of the court.  SFA sports a decent offense at #68, and the ND defense is mediocre at #168.

Surprisingly, Middle Tennessee has the second-best chance of continuing to breathe the rarified air.  The Blue Raiders have exactly 1 win over the Top 100 this season.  That win was two days ago over #5 Michigan St, slapping Sparty with the title of the best team to ever lose in the first round.  MT faces Syracuse today for the right to advance to the Sweet Sixteen, in a clash of colors.  This is a tough matchup for the Blue Raiders #14 three-point shooting, as the Orange is notably stingy in allowing threes (#10 in three-point percent defense, if there is indeed such a thing).

By the numbers, Hawai’i has the worst draw among the three NBKers remaining.  The Maryland Terrapins were in the Top Ten much of the year and sport a roster of future pros.  But the Terps went into the NCAA Tournament on something less than a roll, going 5-5 since (Denzel)Valentine’s Day.   Their 5-seed was indicative of the Terps year-long resume, and emblematic the problems the committee has had in seeding the 5/12 and 4/13 spots.  The Rainbow Warriors caught a break on Friday, as an inconsistent Cal Bears team came in hot but swirled in distraction.  Their luck may continue with a Terps team very likely to overlook and underestimate.

Go Jacks!  Go Blue Raiders!  Go Bows!  It’s the NBK, baby!